Paul's Picks Week 8
Welcome Back!
Things went much better for me last week, as I was 41-11, or .788. Now that's more like it! This makes me 367-108 overall, a 77.3% winning percentage. However, since I missed on last night's picks, I'm starting 0-1 for the 2nd week in a row.
Last year, I finished at 71.8%, which was WAY below my usual average (I'm usually around 75%). You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for right around 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 75%, but I think my high has been close to 78%, with last year perhaps being my worst in many years (very few FBS vs FCS games to pad my stats).
I will give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
As we move into the 2nd half of the season, we have a lot more data to go on, which only makes the upsets even more baffling. The fun becomes trying to find out where those upsets are. As we move into the meat of the conference schedules, the stakes only get higher.
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 21
Tulane @ SMU- The Mustangs come into this contest undefeated and refreshed, as they were off last week. The Green Wave were also off, but have only 1 win, and that over an FCS team. Oddly, Tulane's 2 closest losses have come to the 2 best teams they have faced: Oklahoma (5 pts) and UAB (7 pts); every other loss has been by at least 13 points. SMU leads the series 14-13, and has won the last 6, and 9 of the last 10. The Ponies extend their dominance. SMU wins.
FAU @ Charlotte- The 49ers are surprise early leaders in the CUSA East, but their wins are against MTSU and FIU, 2 teams who are a combined 3-9, and 1-4 in CUSA. The Owls also have a win over FIU, but are sporting a loss to UAB. Charlotte is 3-0 at home and FAU is 0-3 on the road. The Owls lead the series 4-2, having won the last 2. FAU wins their 1st road game, handing the 49ers their 1st home loss.
Louisiana @ Arkansas State- The Ragin' Cajuns destroyed App State last week, and if they aren't too full of themselves, should have no problems with the Red Wolves, who are 1-5 with only a win over an FCS squad on the positive side of the ledger. UL leads the series 26-20-1, and have won the last 3. Louisiana wins easily.
San Jose State @ UNLV- The Spartans have lost 2 straight, and 3 of their last 4, and their lone win in that span was by 6 over woeful NMSU. The Rebels are 0-6, but their last 3 losses- @Fresno St, @UTSA, and to Utah St- were all by 7 pts or less. SJSU leads the series 18-6, and has won 9 of the last 11, but the 2 teams have split the last 4, each team winning at home. I think UNLV is poised to finally break into the win column. UNLV wins.
Friday, October 22
Middle Tennessee @ UConn- This is a game between two terrible teams, but at least the Blue Raiders own an FBS victory (over Marshall). MTSU leads the series 2-0, having won 66-10 and 38-14 in 2000 and 2001. The Huskies are looking to win 2 straight for the 1st time since the middle of the 2017 season. Won't happen. Mid Tenn wins.
Memphis @ UCF- Both of these teams are struggling more than usual this year, so this is pretty much a tossup. The Knights lead the series 13-2, with the Tigers winning both the 1st and last meetings, in 1990 and 2020. I'm not sure UCF can score enough with QB Gabriel out. Memphis wins.
Colorado State @ Utah State- The Rams have really turned things around since their opening 2 losses, winning their last 2, and 3 of their last 4, but their signature win is over SJSU, who is only 3-4. The Aggies have a win over Air Force- the Falcons' only loss- but trail CSU in the MWC Mountain Division due to their home loss to Boise State, and they've lost 2 of their last 3. This has been a fairly even series, with the Rams currently leading 39-35-2, but USU has won the last 2, and 3 of the last 5. This should be a close game, but the Aggies win at home.
Washington @ Arizona- The Huskies have been terrible this year, but the Wildcats have been terrible-er. The Huskies lead the series 23-11-1, and have won the last 4. All games have come since Arizona joined the conference in 1978, turning the Pac 8 into the Pac 10. Washington wins, extending UA's losing streak to 19 games.
Saturday, October 23
Cincinnati @ Navy- Since going 4-0 in non-conference play, the Bearcats have been punishing AAC foes to the tune of 54-12, on average. The Midshipmen upset UCF at the beginning of this month, but that's been their only win to date. This will be only the 5th meeting, with Navy winning the 1st 3 and Cincy winning the most recent matchup, in 2018 in Cincinnati. The other contests were in 1940, 1956, and 2017, and were all played in Annapolis. Bearcats win big.
Oklahoma @ Kansas- The Sooners lead the series 78-27-6, and have won the last 16. The Jayhawks won the 1st 8 times these 2 teams met, from 1903-1910, and held the lead in the series until OU won 8 straight from 1938-1945 to take the lead it would never relinquish. KU had one last hurrah in the 90's, winning 3 straight and 4 of 6, but haven't won since. OU makes it 17 consecutive wins.
Illinois @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions must keep winning to stay in the Big Ten East chase, and can't afford any upset losses to teams like the Illini, whose claim to fame is beating a 3-5 Nebraska team. Both teams were off last week, but a key will be if PSU starting QB Sean Clifford will be healthy enough to play, either in this game or in the future. If not, then backup Ta'Quan Roberson needs to be more effective (and comfortable) than he was against Iowa. The Lions lead the series 20-5 (they 1st played in 1954), and have won the last 3, and 6 of the last 7. Penn State wins big.
Northwestern @ Michigan- These teams 1st met in 1892, with the Wildcats winning 10-8 in Chicago. If they hope to win this year, it will need to be by a similar score, as NW seems incapable of putting up a lot of points against Big Ten competition. Only twice in their last 10 conference games have the Wildcats scored more than 21 points, and not once did they score more than 28. In fact, they have scored over 29 just once in their last 24 Big Ten contests. The Wolverines have held 5 of their 6 opponents this year to 17 points or less, with only Nebraska breaking that barrier- they scored 29. If UM can score at least 21 points, chances are excellent that they'll win. The Wolverines lead the series 58-15-2, have won the last 6, and have won 14 of the last 16 (since 1997). UM wins easily.
Wake Forest @ Army- The Demon Deacons are looking to stay unbeaten, and the Black Knights are trying to avoid a 3-game losing streak. I had no idea these teams have met 16 times before (I bet you didn't, either!), with WF holding the 11-5 edge. The Black Knights won the 1st 3 contests, in 1945, 1962, and 1963, won in '89, and then in 2016, their most recent meeting. The Deacons won in '86 and '87, and the 9 meetings from 1990 to 2015. None of that has any bearing on this game, but I find it fascinating, so I thought I would share. WF wins.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Arkansas- This is the 1st time the Hogs will play an in-state team since 1944. The Razorbacks will rout the Golden Lions.
UMass @ FSU- The Seminoles will win their 3rd straight game of the 2021 season in their 1st ever meeting against the Minutemen.
Kansas State @ Texas Tech- The Red Raiders do a great job of beating bad teams, rarely beat good teams, and are 50-50 against decent teams. The Wildcats fall into that 3rd category, which makes this a tough game to predict. While KSU has lost 3 straight, those losses have been to perhaps the best 3 teams they'll face all year- Okla State, Oklahoma, and Iowa St- but this will be only their 2nd true road game. The series has been a tale of shifting dominance; TT won 8 of the 1st 11, and KSU has won 9 of the last 10, including the last 5, to lead 12-9 overall. Just a hunch, but I'm going with the Wildcats to win a close one.
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green- It's become obvious that BGSU's win over Minnesota was just catching lightning in a bottle., as they are 0-5 against all other FBS teams. The Eagles are 4-3, and just 2 games away from bowl eligibility, but a loss here would deal a severe blow to their chances. The Falcons have dominated the series 25-13-1, but EMU has won the last 2, and 3 of the last 5. The Eagles win to even their MAC record at 2-2.
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan- The Huskies are a surprising 5-2, and at 3-0 lead the MAC West. The Chippewas are only a game behind, at 4-3 and 2-1, so a win would put them in a tie for 1st in the division. Both teams own narrow wins over Toledo. CMU is 3-0 at home; NIU is 2-1 on the road, with a win over Ga Tech and a loss to Michigan. The Chips lead the series 31-24-1, and have won the last 2, and 6 of the last 7. I expect a close game, and you could flip a coin. NIU wins.
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech- Both teams are on losing streaks- the Hokies have lost 2 straight, the Orange 3. Syracuse leads the series 10-8, and have won 3 of the last 4, but is only 2-6 in Blacksburg. VT wins.
Kent State @ Ohio- The Bobcats are really struggling this year, with a loss to an FCS team and their only win over woeful Akron. The Golden Flashes were blown out by WMU last week, but have otherwise played fairly well, as they are 2-1 in the MAC and tied atop the East division. Ohio leads the series 45-25-2, and has won the last 6, though they didn't play last year. KSU wins.
Texas State @ Georgia State- The Panthers played their best game of the year last week, routing ULM, and still harbor hopes of a bowl berth. The Bobcats have been inconsistent, playing well at times, then looking awful at others. The question is which TSU team shows up. The Bobcats lead the series 4-3, winning the 1st 2 matchups and the last 2, but they didn't play last year. GSU wins.
Wisconsin @ Purdue- Both teams are struggling to score points; the Badgers are averaging 17 ppg in 3 Big Ten games (1-2) and the Boilermakers are averaging 16.67 in their 3 conference games (2-1). Defensively, UW is allowing 18 ppg and PU is allowing 12 ppg (both stats in Big Ten games). What I'm trying to say is, expect a low scoring game, which probably means a 45-42 shootout. The Badgers lead the series 50-29-8, and have won the last 14 in this series, which started in 1892. Purdue wins in a mild upset, as this is only UW's 2nd true road game.
Oregon @ UCLA- Each team has one conference loss, the Ducks losing to a mediocre Stanford in OT and the Bruins losing to Arizona State by 19. UCLA leads the series 39-30, but the Ducks have won the last 2, and 8 of the last 9. I'm tempted to pick the home team, but Oregon was one of my preseason picks to make the CFP, so I'm going to ride the Quackers until they're eliminated. Oregon wins.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State- The Cyclones are in must-win mode, as they have already suffered a Big 12 loss, and 2 losses overall. The Cowboys are unbeaten, and are looking to get by their toughest remaining hurdle before Bedlam in the last week of the regular season. OSU has been the 1 team HC Matt Campbell has been unable to solve, as he is only 1-4 against the Cowboys. Overall, OSU leads the series 33-19, has won the last 2, and 8 of the last 9. ISU hasn't won in Ames since 2011, but the Cyclones get the job done in a mild upset.
LSU @ Ole Miss- The Rebels need this win to have any chance of winning the SEC West (they also need Bama to lose another game). The Tigers are playing for... what exactly? Their coach is leaving after the season, their 2 conference losses has everyone saying they're eliminated from the SEC West title. How about this- if they win out, they could still win the SEC West! Hear me out; they would own tiebreaker advantages against Ole Miss and Alabama by virtue of their wins, and they would eliminate TAMU. The only fly in the ointment would be Auburn- if they were to also win out, Auburn would be division champs. However, if Alabama were to defeat Auburn, and all other games go as expected, there would be a 4 way tie at the top at 6-2: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Ole Miss. Crazy! Anyway, the Bayou Bengals lead the series 64-40-4, and have won the last 5, and 9 of the last 11 (10 of 11, if you count the win vacated by the Rebels in 2013). I would love the chaos of a 4-way tie, but it ain't gonna happen. Ole Miss wins at home.
BYU @ Washington State- The key question in this game is how the WSU Cougars will react to losing their coach. Will they rally and put on their best performance? Or will they quit on their school, like their coach quit on them, as some may see it? It's really hard to predict how college kids will handle situations like these. The BYU Cougars are looking to break their 2-game losing streak, and go 4-0 against the Pac 12, but this is their 1st true road game against a Pac 12 team, and they are currently 0-1 against P5 teams on the road. BYU leads the series 3-1, having won in 1981, 1990, and 2012, with Wazzu winning in 1989, but none of the games were in Pullman. Tough game to predict, but I don't see BYU losing 3 in a row. BYU wins a close one.
Rice @ UAB- The Blazers are 3-0 and tied for the lead in the CUSA West. The Owls are 1-1, and just got destroyed by UTSA, one of the co-leaders. UAB leads the series 6-3, and has won 4 straight. The Blazers win big.
Clemson @ Pittsburgh- At the beginning of the year, I would never have thought that I would consider picking the Panthers in this game, but yet here I am. Pitt has scored 80 in 2 ACC games, and given up 28. The Tigers have scored 57 in 3 conference games, and have allowed 54 (one game was in 2 OT). The series is tied 2-2, but they've never played in Pittsburgh. In fact, one meeting was in the ACCCG (won by Clemson in 2018) and 1 was in the 1977 Gator Bowl (won by Pitt 34-3). I think the Panthers score just enough to pull off the (mild) upset.
Maryland @ Minnesota- The Terrapins started the 2021 season with high hopes, and began like a house afire, racing out to a 4-0 start, but have since been routed by Iowa and Ohio St. The Golden Gophers have been up and down, playing OSU relatively close, routing Colorado in Boulder, losing to a bad Bowling Green team for homecoming, then upsetting Purdue on the road and outlasting Nebraska at home. Despite all the injuries, the Gophers seem to be rounding into form. The Terps have yet to break 20 in their 3 Big Ten games, so they are struggling offensively just as Minny is locking down opponents. Maryland leads the series 4-2, and won a 45-44 thriller last year when the Gophers missed an XP. Minnesota gets revenge and wins this year.
Miami, Oh @ Ball State- So far, the MAC East has only 1 win against the West, and the Redhawks own that victory (over CMU). The Cardinals won the MAC last year, but their only loss was to Miami. After starting the season 1-3, the Cardinals have won 3 straight games, and they're looking to sustain that success and get revenge against the Redhawks. Miami leads the series 20-13-1, and has won 4 of the last 5. Ball State wins and continues their roll.
Western Michigan @ Toledo- The Broncos are 5-2/2-1, and just a game behind NIU in the MAC West, and have non-conference wins over Pitt and SJSU. The Rockets are a disappointing 3-4/1-2, but have defeated Ball State, and have close losses to NIU and CMU (in OT). Toledo leads the series 44-31-1, and have won 3 of the last 4, but the 2 teams have split the last 6, and WMU won last year. The Rockets have won 4 of the last 5 played at home, so I'm going for Toledo in a mild upset.
Buffalo @ Akron- The Bulls are not very good this year, but the Zips have been not very good for the last 3 years. The Zips lead the series 11-9, but the Bulls have won the last 3. Make it 4 in a row. Buffalo wins.
Colorado @ California- The Buffaloes finally looked like the team I expected them to be when they routed Arizona last week, but at 2-4/1-2, they haven't been impressive very much. The Golden Bears are only 1-5/0-3 with their lone win over an FCS team, but 4 of their 5 losses have been by 7 points or less. Cal leads the series 6-4, but are 4-0 in Berkeley. This is only Colorado's 2nd game outside their home state. Cal wins.
New Mexico @ Wyoming- The Cowboys have lost 2 straight after starting the season 4-0, and sit only a half game out of last place in the MWC Mountain, just ahead of the Lobos. UNM has not been competitive in their 3 MWC games, losing by an average score of 35-8, which is only slightly better than Wyoming losing by an average of 20.5-7 in their 2 MWC contests. The Cowboys lead the series 38-35, and have won 3 of the last 4, but the Lobos won 17-16 last year. Wyoming gets revenge and wins a close one at home, staying out of last place.
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt- The Bulldogs have defeated NC State and Texas A&M, but have a narrow win over La Tech, and losses to Memphis, LSU, and Alabama. The Commodores looked pitiful in their opening loss to an FCS team, and in getting routed by Stanford, Georgia, and Florida, but they have a win over Colorado St (who leads the MWC Mtn), UConn, and a narrow loss to S Carolina. Even though these teams first met in 1904, and have been in the same conference since 1922, they have only played 21 times, with MSU holding the 14-7-2 edge. The teams are 5-5-2 in Nashville. I'm tempted to pick Vandy to break their 16-game SEC losing streak, but MSU wins.
Liberty @ North Texas- The Flames have 2 losses this year, and are only 2-2 on the road. The Mean Green has been terrible, with their lone win over an FCS team, and only 1 loss by less than 13 points. NT won the only previous meeting, 47-7 in 2018, but that seems like a long time ago in the life of these 2 programs, as the Mean Green was 9-4 that year compared to Liberty's 6-6 record. Flames win.
Boston College @ Louisville- Each team has lost their last 2 games, but the Cardinals are coming out of their off week. UL is 1-2 in the ACC, with a win over FSU and losses to WF and UVA. BC is 0-2, with losses to Clemson and NC St. The Cardinals lead the series 7-6, but the Eagles have won 3 of the last 4, including 34-27 last year. BC's signature win is over Missouri in OT. UL has beaten UCF, and played Ole Miss relatively well. Louisville wins at home.
East Carolina @ Houston- The Cougars are rolling, reeling off 5 straight wins after opening the season with a loss to Texas Tech. The Pirates opened the season with 2 losses, but have won 3 of 4 since. Both teams are coming out of their off week. The series is tied at 7 wins apiece, with Houston winning the last 2. Make it 3 in a row. Cougars win.
Tennessee @ Alabama- The Volunteers can only dream of the time when "the 3rd Saturday in October" was the highlight of the year. This rivalry has been one of streaks. Alabama dominated from 1901-1913, going 8-1-1, then UT won 5 of 6 from 1914-1932; Bama 4-0-1 from 1933-37; UT 3 straight from 1938-40; Bama 3-0-1 from 1941-45; UT 10-2-3 from 1946-60; Bama 5-0-1 from 1961-66; UT 4 straight from 1967-70; Bama 11 straight from 1971-81; UT 4 straight from 1982-85; Bama 8-0-1 from 1986-94; UT 10-2 from 1995-2006 (7 straight from 1995-01); and now Bama with the last 14 straight to lead the all-time series 57-38-7. All that just to say that the Crimson Tide will continue the longest streak in the series and win their 15th straight.
San Diego State @ Air Force- The Aztecs are undefeated, but have 2 wins in OT- a good one over Utah, and an ok one over SJSU. Their other wins are over an FCS team, and 4 teams with a combined record of 6-20, with half of those wins over FCS teams. The Falcons have a loss to Utah St, but wins over rival Navy, Wyoming, and Boise St, 2 of those on the road. Air Force leads the series 19-17, but SDSU has won the last 8. Air Force wins.
WKU @ FIU- The Hilltoppers have played one of the toughest schedules of any CUSA team, losing close games to Army and Indiana. The Panthers own only 1 victory, and that over an FCS team. WKU leads the series 8-6, and has won the last 2, but they've split the last 4. WKU wins easily.
UTSA @ La Tech- The Bulldogs are a tough team to figure out. They have played well in close losses to Miss State, SMU, and NC State, but narrowly beat an FCS team and a terrible North Texas team, and lost by 16 to UTEP. The Roadrunners are undefeated and looking to make the CUSACG for the 1st time. LT leads the series 7-2, but UTSA won 27-26 last year. I expect a close game, as the Bulldogs are better than their record indicates, but UTSA wins their 2nd straight over LT and stays unbeaten.
Temple @ USF- The Bulls are in the midst of a 17-game FBS losing streak, their only wins in their last 19 games over 2 FCS teams, but 2 of their last 3 losses were by 8 points or less. The Owls are 3-3, already an improvement on their 1-6 record from 2020. The Owls lead the series 5-2, having won the last 3. Temple wins.
South Alabama @ ULM- The Warhawks are only 3-3, but are 3-1 at home. The Jaguars are 4-2, but 1-1 on the road. ULM got a big win last week over Liberty, while the Jaguars were routing Ga Southern. This game could go a long way in deciding 2nd place in the SBC West. The Warhawks lead the series 4-3. South Alabama wins.
Nevada @ Fresno State- The Wolfpack have 3 convincing wins in the MWC, and a win @Cal. The Bulldogs are 2-1 in the MWC with a shutout win over Wyoming and a loss to Hawaii (who Nevada beat), as well as a win over UCLA and a close loss to Oregon. This should be a fantastic game that will go a long way in deciding who wins the MWC West. FSU leads the series 29-22-1, but Nevada has won the last 2, and 4 of the last 6, as the 2 teams have traded 2-game winning streaks. Nevada wins a close one.
Ohio State @ Indiana- The Hoosiers were expected to perhaps challenge for a top 3 spot in the Big Ten East, but instead find themselves a half game out of last place. The Buckeyes stumbled early, but have since stomped lesser teams, pushing them around just like you would expect them to. This is one of the most lopsided series, with OSU leading 76-12-5, with the Buckeyes winning the last 25 in a row. But it's actually worse than it looks, because 5 of Indiana's 12 wins came in their 1st 6 meetings, from 1901-1913, when the Hoosiers started 5-0-1 against OSU. That means that since 1914, Ohio State is 76-7-4 against the Hoosiers, an .897 winning percentage! Buckeyes win again, for the 26th straight time.
USC @ Notre Dame- The Trojans have followed a pattern of wins followed by losses. The question is if their off week counts as a "win" and so this week is a loss, or if the off week doesn't count, and so this week is a win. The Fighting Irish have just the 1 stumble against Cincinnati, but they've had several close calls, so they are definitely vulnerable to a team having an exceptional day, though they are also coming out of their off week, and are at home. The Irish lead the series 47-36-5, and have won 3 straight, and 6 of the last 8. ND wins again.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M- The Aggies seem to have found their footing after their early stumbles against Arkansas and Miss State. The Gamecocks have found 4 wins, but will be hard pressed to find 2 more to become bowl eligible. The Gamecocks have never defeated the Aggies in 7 tries, and only twice have played within 2 TDs or less. TAMU wins.
NC State @ Miami, Fl- The Wolfpack seem to be the biggest threat to Clemson in the ACC Atlantic, and so just need to keep winning to clinch the division. The Hurricanes are a mess, having lost 2 straight, and 3 of 4. Miami leads the series 10-5-1, having won last year, but they have played infrequently through the years, from 1939-2016, including in the 1998 Micron PC Bowl. The Canes have won the last 3 meetings, in 2012, 2016, and 2020. NC State wins.
Georgia Tech @ Virginia- The Yellow Jackets, like USC, have been alternating wins and losses, except they started with a loss. So does their off week count as a loss, or does that get skipped? The Cavaliers have won 3 straight after a short 2-game losing streak, and look to stay in the ACC Coastal race. This series is about as even as you can get, with the Jackets leading 21-20-1, and the home team winning each of the last 5 meetings. They didn't play last year, so the Wahoos win 2 straight.
West Virginia @ TCU- Both of these teams come in stumbling, the Mountaineers on a 3-game losing streak and the Horned Frogs losing 3 of their last 4. Both have lost to Oklahoma, WVU by 3, TCU by 21, but the Frogs defeated Texas Tech by 21, whom WVU lost to by 3. Not much to take from that info. The Mountaineers lead the series 6-4, having won the last 3. TCU wins at home.
Utah @ Oregon State- The Beavers have had an off week to contemplate their loss to Wash State and prepare for this game. The Utes have won 3 straight after losing to BYU and SDSU. The series, 1st played in 1931, is tied 11-11-1, but the Utes have won the last 5. Utah wins a tough one on the road.
New Mexico State @ Hawaii- The Aggies have lost 7 consecutive FBS games, and most have not been close. The Rainbow Warriors are 3-4 with an upset of Fresno St. This is the 2nd meeting this season between the 2, with Hawaii winning the 1st in Las Cruces 41-21. Hawaii wins again, probably by a similar score.
That's all for this week- only 54 games!
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