Paul's Picks Week 9
Welcome Back!
I slid backwards again last week, as I was 38-16, or .704. Not very good... This makes me 405-124 overall, a 76.6% winning percentage.
Last year, I finished at 71.8%, which was WAY below my usual average (I'm usually around 75%). You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for right around 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 75%, but I think my high has been close to 78%, with last year perhaps being my worst in many years (very few FBS vs FCS games to pad my stats).
I will give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
As we move into the 2nd half of the season, we have a lot more data to go on, which only makes the upsets even more baffling. The fun becomes trying to find out where those upsets are. As we move into the meat of the conference schedules, the stakes only get higher.
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 28
Troy @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers suffered their 1st regular season loss since 2019 last week, and were held to their lowest point total of the year-27- while allowing their most- 30. The Trojans have finally found an offense the last 2 weeks, but their defense has been solid all year. Both teams are 2-1 in the SBC, but only Troy controls their own destiny, as they still have App St and Ga St still on the schedule. The series is tied at 2 wins apiece, but the last 2 wins were by CCU by a combined 5 points. This will be a closer than expected game, but CCU pulls it out in the end.
USF @ East Carolina- The Pirates started 0-2, won 3 straight, but have lost their last 2. The Bulls are 2-5, but won last week. Both are 1-2 in the AAC. USF leads the series 9-2, but ECU won 44-24 last year. Both teams have close losses to better opponents. ECU is 2-1 at home while USF is 0-2 on the road. ECU wins.
Friday, October 29
Navy @ Tulsa- These teams have played a combined 9 one-score games out of the 14 total they have played, and 5 were losses, so this will probably be another close game. The Golden Hurricane have won 3 of 4 after an 0-3 start, and had an extra week to prepare for the Navy option attack. The Midshipmen have only a lone upset win over UCF on the positive side of the win-loss ledger. Navy leads the series 6-2, but Tulsa won in Annapolis last year, 19-6. Tulsa wins.
UNLV @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack lost their 1st MWC game last week, falling by 2 to Fresno St. The Rebels have lost 13 straight. Nevada leads the series 27-19, and won by 18 last year, but UNLV has won 2 of the last 3, and the series is even at 4 wins each over the last 8 meetings. Nevada wins.
Saturday, October 30
Cincinnati @ Tulane- The Green Wave looked like they might be a pretty good team after playing Oklahoma close in their opener, but they've been blown out 4 times since and lost to a CUSA team, and we've learned that almost everyone plays OU close. The Bearcats had their closest win last week at Navy, but that was probably just a blip on their way to the AACCG. These teams 1st met in 1909, but didn't play again until 39 years later, in 1948. Tulane leads the series 11-6, with all of their wins coming in 2001 or earlier, but Cincy has won the last 3, and 4 of the last 5. Bearcats win big.
Michigan @ Michigan State- This is perhaps the biggest game of the day, in terms of playoff implications (barring a huge upset elsewhere). Both teams are 7-0 and ranked in the AP top 10, and the winner will control their destiny in the Big Ten East, but will still have to defeat Ohio St and/or Penn St. In conference games, the Wolverines are winning by an average score of 30.75-16.5, the Spartans by 28.75-17.25, and this is a good comparison, since they have 3 of their 4 opponents in common- Northwestern, Nebraska, and Rutgers. Michigan leads the series, which began in 1898, 71-37-5, and have won 2 of the last 3, and 3 of the last 5, but MSU won last year, and has won 9 of the last 13. This should be a fantastic game! MSU wins a close one at home!
Iowa @ Wisconsin- The Hawkeyes had an off week following their loss to Purdue 2 weeks ago, so hopefully they've fixed- or at least mitigated- some of their offensive problems. The Badgers found an offense last week in routing that same Purdue team, and their defense has only allowed 27 points over their last 3 games, all victories, so perhaps they've turned the corner. UW leads the series 48-44-2, and has won 4 of the last 5, and 8 of the last 10, but Iowa won 28-7 last year. These teams 1st played in 1894, and UW mostly dominated through 1953, and then again in the 1960s, but Iowa had long stretches of consecutive wins in the 50s, 80s, and 90s. Since 2001, it's been 9-8 in UW's favor. Just a gut feeling, but Wisconsin wins at home.
Texas @ Baylor- The Longhorns have dominated this series since it was 1st played in 1901, leading 79-27-4, and has won 5 of the last 6, but is only 2-3 the last 5 times it has been played in Waco. At 6-1, the Bears have already qualified for a bowl, but they are gunning for bigger fish to fry, hoping to land a berth in the Big 12 CG. Currently, Baylor is in a 3-way tie for 2nd with OSU and ISU, each holding a win over one of the others. The Longhorns are only a game behind, so a win here, and then winning out, could put them in the mix. The Horns are 2-2 in the Big 12 with an average score of 43.5-37, skewed quite a bit by scoring 70 against Texas Tech. Baylor is 3-1 with an average score of 33.75-20. Baylor wins.
Miami, Fl @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers have solidified themselves on top of the ACC Coastal as the only unbeaten team in the division, as every other team has at least 2 losses, including the Hurricanes (1-2). However, the Canes got a huge win last week over previously ACC unbeaten NC State, so they are capable of pulling the upset. Miami leads the series 28-11-1, but 8 of Pitt's 11 victories came in 1976 or before, so since 1984, the Canes are 21-3 against the Panthers (last win in 2017). This seems to be the year of the Panther, so go with Pitt at home.
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech- The Hokies started 3-1, but have gone 0-3 since. The Yellow Jackets have alternated wins and losses, beginning with a loss in their opener. VT leads the series 10-7, and won the last meeting in 2019, 45-0, but the Jackets have won 3 of the last 4. Besides, it's the week for the Jackets to win, following their loss to UVA last week. GT wins.
Rutgers @ Illinois- The Scarlet Knights went 3-0 in nonconference play, but are 0-4 in the Big Ten, with only 1 loss by less than 14 points. The Fighting Illini are 3-5/2-3, and have a (very) outside shot at earning a bowl slot, but they absolutely have to win this game. Illinois leads the series 5-2, and have won the last 3, all games having been played since 2005. Illinois wins.
Indiana @ Maryland- Talk about disappointing; the Terrapins began the season 4-0, but have lost 3 straight (by 37, 49, and 18 pts), and the Hoosiers are 0-4 in the Big Ten after starting the season ranked in the top 25 of the AP poll. Indiana leads the series 7-2, and has won the last 3, and is 4-1 in College Park and Baltimore. Indiana gets their 1st conference win.
UMass @ Liberty- The Flames have struggled the last couple of weeks, losing to ULM and needing a comeback to defeat 1-6 North Texas. However, the Minutemen are the epitome of struggling, as they have won only 2 of their last 21 games. The Flames lead the series 2-1, winning the last 2 by a combined score of 108-21. Liberty wins easily. Or at least they should...
UCF @ Temple- The Owls had a perfect chance last week to have a winning record, but instead they spit the bit and find themselves at 3-4/1-2. The Knights took care of business against Memphis, and were it not for an upset loss to Navy in early October, would be in the mix for an AACCG spot. UCF leads the series 6-2, having won the last 4, and should win this one, too.
Bowling Green @ Buffalo- The Bulls, like half of the teams in the MAC, are 2-2 in the conference. The Falcons are the only winless team at 0-4, and it continues to baffle me how this team was able to upset Minnesota, though they do have 3 losses by 8 points or less. BGSU leads the series 11-7, but the Bulls have won the last 4. Buffalo wins again, probably by at least 14.
Texas State @ Louisiana- The Bobcats are lucky to have 2 wins; the Ragin' Cajuns may just possibly be the best team in the SBC, but they have to stay focused, as they can be beat (as they almost were by Ark State last week). The Bobcats have never beaten UL in 7 tries, and in fact, have never been closer than the 10 points they lost by last year. Louisiana wins big.
Iowa State @ West Virginia- The Cyclones have won 3 straight after starting 2-2, and are in the mix for a Big 12 championship. The Mountaineers came out of their off week and broke their 3-game losing streak with a win over TCU, but at 1-3, they're not likely to make the Big 12 CG. However, WVU can still serve as a spoiler, as they have this game and ones against OSU and Texas remaining, all at home. WVU leads the series 5-4, but ISU has won the last 3. Cyclones win.
North Texas @ Rice- As bad as the Owls have looked at times, they have won 3 of their last 4, and are 2-1 in CUSA and still in the mix in the West division. The Mean Green are 1-6, with only 2 losses by less than 13 points, and their only win over an FCS foe. UNT leads the series 6-5, and have won 4 of the last 5, including 27-17 last year. But Rice has a chance to get a bowl berth with 3 more wins, and their remaining schedule is somewhat less than daunting. Owls win.
Missouri @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores have lost 17 straight SEC games, only 5 by less than 21 points, but their last win was against Mizzou the last time the Tigers were in Nashville (21-14 over the #22 ranked team). The Tigers have lost their last 5 SEC games, with only 1 of those losses by less than 19 points. Mizzou leads the series 8-4-1, but the 1st 4 games were played in 1895-96 and in 1957-58 (UM was 2-1-1 in those 4). Vandy has won 2 of the last 3 played in Nashville, and this looks like their last chance for a conference win this year. Vandy wins in an upset!
Washington State @ Arizona State- These teams have played 45 times since they 1st met in 1960, with the Sun Devils holding the 28-15-2 edge, though Wazzu has won 2 of the last 3. Both teams are still in the race in their respective divisions, but another loss would severely hamper their efforts. ASU is coming out of their off week, and so should be well rested, but both teams are coming off of a loss. ASU wins at home.
Hawaii @ Utah State- The Aggies suffered through a 2-game mid-season slump, but have rebounded to win their last 2 and lead the MWC Mountain division by a half game. The Rainbow Warriors have won 3 of their last 4, their only loss in that stretch to a very good Nevada team. USU leads the series 10-6 thanks to winning the last 5, but these teams haven't played since 2018. The Aggies win at home.
Georgia vs Florida (Jacksonville)- This is always a highly anticipated game by both teams (and both fan bases!) as it is one of the few rivalries that is (almost) always played at a neutral site. Except for 1994 and 1995, when the Gator Bowl was being renovated, this game has been played in Jacksonville every year since 1933, and before that was played in various other locations such as Gainesville and Athens (of course), Savannah, and Tampa. The very 1st meeting between these 2 teams was in 1915 in- Jacksonville! This series has been one of shifting dominance; the Dawgs went 23-5-1 from 1915-1951, then the Gators were 13-5-1 from 1952-1970; the Dawgs followed with a 15-4 run from 1971-1989, and then UF went 18-3 from 1990-2010. Since 2010, the series is 6-4 in UGA's favor, with the Dawgs having won 3 of the last 4, but the Gators won last year. Florida has already been eliminated from winning the SEC East, so their hope is to spoil the Dawgs chances, and to perhaps knock them out of the CFP. I don't see that happening. UGA wins big, as they score early and often and shut down the Gators' offense.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma- The Sooners have been living on the edge, and one day it's going to come back and bite them, but it hasn't yet. Can the Red Raiders be that team under interim HC Sonny Cumbie? Not likely. OU leads the series 22-6, winning the last 9, and is 12-2 in Norman. They are also 1-0 in El Paso, as they won 41-10 in the 1993 Sun Bowl, but that's neither here nor there. Sooners win easily. Unless they play like last week, in which case all bets are off...
Colorado @ Oregon- The Ducks still look like the best team in the Pac 12. The Buffaloes may one day be a good team again. This will probably not be that day. The Ducks lead the series 13-9, and have won 7 of the last 8, but the teams have split the last 2, with the Buffs winning in Eugene in 2016. Oregon wins.
FIU @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd have won 2 straight, breaking a 4-game losing streak, and coming out of their off week, are looking to finish with a winning record, both overall and in CUSA. The Panthers have lost 6 straight after opening 2021 with a win over an FCS team, and they have lost 11 straight FBS contests. Marshall leads the series 6-2, but they've split the last 4. Marshall wins.
La Tech @ ODU- The Bulldogs started the season playing very well, winning their 1st CUSA game and losing 1-possession games to Miss State, SMU, and NC State. Since then, they have been routed by UTEP and UTSA. The Monarchs own a win over an FCS team, but haven't beaten an FBS team since 2018, a string of 18 consecutive losses. ODU won the only previous meeting, 30-27 in 2014. LT wins this time to even the series.
Southern Miss @ Middle Tennessee- The Golden Eagles are 1-6, with only 1 loss by less than 12 points, and their only win over an FCS team. The Blue Raiders are 3-3/1-2 with a win over Marshall. MTSU leads the series 3-0, including a win in the 2009 New Orleans Bowl, but they haven't played since 2014. MTSU wins to even their record at 4-4/2-2.
FSU @ Clemson- The Seminoles, at 2-2, are only a half game behind the 3-2 Tigers. The loser of this game is absolutely eliminated from winning the ACC Atlantic. The average score for Clemson in its 5 ACC games is 17.6-17.8; for FSU it's 26.25-30.25. If the Seminoles can score even 17 points, I'm not sure Clemson can win. And FSU is on a 3-game winning streak, while the Tigers are 2-2 over their last 4 games. Turnovers will probably play a big role in this game. FSU leads the series 20-13, but Clemson has won the last 5. I may be crazy, but I think FSU has the momentum and wins this.
Boston College @ Syracuse- The Orange are 4-4/1-3, earning their 1st ACC win since 2019 last week over Va Tech. The Eagles are 4-3/0-3, but are on a 3-game losing streak. Syracuse leads the series 31-22 (they've been playing since 1924), but BC has won the last 2, and 3 of the last 4. I'm still not fully bought in on the Orange, and I can't believe BC will stay winless in the ACC. Eagles win.
Minnesota @ Northwestern- Other than their inexplicable stumble against BGSU, the Golden Gophers have played pretty well, and are tied atop the Big Ten West. The Wildcats have been awful, somehow managing to beat Rutgers. UM leads the series 54-36-5, but NU has won 2 of the last 3, and 6 of the last 10. The Gophers won 38-22 the last time they played, in 2019, and they'll win this time, too.
Purdue @ Nebraska- The Boilermakers are a tough team to figure out. On the one hand, they have beaten a good Oregon St team, routed UConn, defeated Illinois, and upset #2 Iowa. On the other, they played Notre Dame and Minnesota close, then got routed by Wisconsin, giving up 30 points to a team that rarely breaks 24. The Cornhuskers just keep finding ways to lose close games. They rarely get routed- they have 8 losses by 8 points or less in their last 10 losses- but almost never have a close win- of their last 7 wins, only 2 were by 8 points or less. If Purdue can stay close, it's more than likely they will win. If Nebraska can open up a 10 point lead or more, chances are, the Huskers will win. UN leads the series 5-4, but PU has won 2 of the last 3. Purdue wins. A close one. Duh.
TCU @ Kansas State- The Horned Frogs have lost 4 of their last 5, their only win over Texas Tech. The Wildcats have lost 3 of their last 4, their only win over Texas Tech. I'm detecting a trend. TCU is 1-1 on the road and KSU is 2-2 at home. Both teams are 1-3 in the Big 12. Want more proof these teams are pretty much dead even? How about this- the series is tied 7-7, and they are 2-2 over the last 4 years (KSU won the last 2). Might as well flip a coin, but I'm going with the home team. KSU wins a close one.
ULM @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers are fresh off an upset of previously unbeaten CCU at home. They face a suddenly rejuvenated Warhawks team that has won 2 straight, and 4 of their last 6, including wins over Troy, Liberty, and South Ala. However, ULM is 0-2 on the road- against Kentucky and CCU, so no surprise there- and ASU is 3-0 at home. ASU can certainly be upset by ULM- as happened back in 2017 in the Warhawks' only victory in 6 tries- but that win was in Monroe. ASU wins.
Duke @ Wake Forest- The Blue Devils are coming out of their off week, but they've lost 3 straight, all of them ACC games, and they've lost 8 consecutive conference games dating to the middle of last season. Worse, they've lost 16 of their last 18 games against ACC teams, including Notre Dame last year. The Demon Deacons are looking to stay unbeaten, both in ACC play and overall as they try to lock up the ACC Atlantic title. Duke leads the series 58-40-2, but WF has won the last 2, and 3 of the last 4. WF wins.
Charlotte @ WKU- These 2 teams are tied- along with 2 others- atop the CUSA East. The Hilltoppers lead the series, such as it is, 3-1. The 49ers are only 2 wins away from bowl eligibility, and are in good shape to get there, but a win here would almost guarantee it, while a loss would make it a stretch. WKU absolutely needs this win to have a chance at a bowl. WKU wins.
Wyoming @ San Jose State- I have completely lost faith that the Cowboys will ever be any better than mediocre under HC Craig Bohl, and that's a shame. Wyoming has scored a grand total of 17 points in 3 MWC games this year, and 14 of those were in 1 game. Defensively, they've held their 3 conference foes to 24, 17, and 14 points, but it's hard to win when you're averaging less than 6 ppg. The Cowboys have lost their last 5 MWC games, and 10 of their last 13. The Spartans got back in the winning column last weekend by squeaking by UNLV, hardly an accomplishment, and their other 3 wins are nothing to crow about, either- Southern Utah, @Hawaii (perhaps their best win?), and NMSU. However, SJSU is 2-1 at home with only a 2 OT loss to SDSU marring their record in San Jose. Wyoming leads the series 7-4, and won the last meeting in 2018, but the Spartans have won 3 of the last 4. SJSU wins.
Arkansas State @ South Alabama- The Red Wolves only have 1 win, a victory over an FCS team in their opener, but they've come close a few times, losing by 5 to Memphis, by 7 @Tulsa, and by 1 to Louisiana. The Jaguars have already matched last year's win total (4), and are looking to qualify for a bowl. They've also had some close losses- by 2 to Louisiana, in 4 OTs to Texas St, and by 10 to ULM. Their other common opponent, besides Louisiana, was Ga Southern- USA won by 27, ASU lost by 26. The Wolves lead the series 6-3, but the Jaguars have won the last 2. USA wins again, making it 3 in a row.
UTEP @ FAU- The Miners have been the surprise of the CUSA, if not all college football, with their 6-1 record- more wins than their last 4 seasons COMBINED- and bowl eligibility, but this will be their 1st game against a team that currently has a winning record. The Owls have played a tough schedule, with their losses coming against Florida, Air Force, and UAB, all on the road. I want to be, but I'm still not all in on UTEP. In 3 conference games, FAU is outscoring opponents by an average of 36.67-20.33, UTEP by 24.33-12.33. This will be a good test for the FAU offense and the UTEP defense. These teams have only played twice, in 2015 and 2016, with each team winning at home. That trend continues. FAU wins a close one at home.
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles are having a down year this year, at 2-5, but they would like nothing better than to ruin any hopes Ga State has at bowl eligibility. For their part, the Panthers have won their last 2 games and must win this game (or pull an upset or 2) to have any hope at a bowl. The Eagles are coming out of their off week, so they'll be ready to go. Ga State leads the series 4-3, and won by 6 last year, but Ga Southern has won 2 of the last 3. Ga State wins.
Ole Miss @ Auburn- Even though these 2 teams have been in the same conference since the 1920s, and share a border with each other, they had only played 15 times before 1990- and 2 of those were in bowl games- but of course now play annually, since they're in the same division. The Rebels won 5 of the 1st 7 times they met (1928-1965), but the Tigers have dominated since, winning 29 of the next 34 to lead the series 34-10, having won the last 5. And the 2 bowl meetings? Ole Miss won the 1965 Liberty Bowl 13-7 and Auburn won the 1971 Gator Bowl 35-28. This game has title implications in the SEC West. Auburn will win the West if they win the rest of their games, and they're coming out of their off week in this one. Ole Miss could win the West if they win out, and Bama loses at least once more (maybe to Auburn?). Both still have Texas A&M and Miss State to play. Tough game to pick, but I like the home team in this one, as I don't fully trust the Rebel offense not to disappear against a good Auburn defense, and I don't trust the Rebel defense against practically anyone. Auburn wins.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State- The Wildcats have had 2 weeks to lick their wounds after their loss to UGA, and they should be an angry team, ready to take on a different pack of Bulldogs. MSU is 4-3 and fighting to reach bowl eligibility. This series is tied 24-24, with the home team winning each of the last 5. This is another example of SEC teams that have been in the same conference for 100 years, but have played less than half of the time- only 48 meetings- and some of those were from before they were in a conference together. Anyway, Kentucky wins.
Kansas @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys are sure to pay attention to what the Jayhawks did to Oklahoma last week, but the question is whether they will have a letdown after losing their 1st game last week. OSU only leads the series 40-29-2, but they've won the last 11, and 16 of the last 17, which means that before this run started in 1998, KU led 28-24-2, mostly by going 21-6 from 1923-1968, and then winning 6 straight from 1990-1995. From 1969-1989, OSU went 17-1-3 against the Jayhawks (one of the ties was forfeited). OSU wins big.
SMU @ Houston- The winner of this game will have the inside track to take on Cincinnati in the ACCCG. And yes, I realize there are a lot of assumptions in that statement, but just go with it. The Cougars are 6-1/4-0 and lead the AAC. The Mustangs are 7-0/3-0, just a 1/2 game behind. The difference after this game is that SMU still has to play Cincinnati (Houston does not), so a loss here would almost certainly knock them out of the AACCG, barring other upsets. A loss by the Cougars, however, while not knocking them out, would be difficult to make up for the very same reason- they can't make it up by beating Cincy, since they don't play, and so would have to hope SMU loses 2, or Cincy loses 1, and they somehow win a tiebreaker against a team they don't play. UH leads the series 21-13-1, but the Mustangs have won the last 2, and 3 of the last 4, but the Cougars won 12 of 14 between 1995 and 2014. One interesting note- they met in the 1983 Mirage Bowl, in Tokyo, Japan. SMU won that one 34-12. The only common opponent this year is Tulane, which they both routed. SMU defeated TCU, but also has a last second win over mediocre La Tech. Houston doesn't have any "big" wins, but has close escapes versus Navy and ECU. This should be a good game, but I'll go with the team that's more "battle-tested". SMU wins.
Oregon State @ Cal- The Golden Bears finally got an FBS win, and a Pac 12 win, but are only 2-6 in their last 8 conference games. The Beavers got back on the winning track after an upset loss to Wash State in early October, and are looking to stay on top in the Pac 12 North. Cal leads the series 38-35, but OSU has won the last 2, and 3 of the last 5, though Cal has won 4 of the last 7. The Beavers are only 1-2 on the road, but the Bears are only 2-2 at home, with 1 of the wins over an FCS team. OSU wins.
Arizona @ USC- As bad as the Trojans have been, the Wildcats have been worse- UA has lost 19 consecutive games, including 16 straight Pac 12 contests. Besides, the Trojans win every other week, and it's their week to win. USC leads the series 35-8, including the last 8, and 17 of the last 19. USC wins, but don't be surprised if it's close for a while, maybe into the 2nd half.
Boise State @ Colorado State- The Rams suffered their 1st MWC loss last week, and though the Broncos are only 3-4/1-2, they're still the beasts of the conference. CSU has never beaten the Broncos in 10 tries, and have only been within 1 score in 3 of those losses. This could be the year for the Rams to finally get that 1st win over BSU, but I'm not going to predict it! Boise State wins.
Penn State @ Ohio State- The Nittany Lions have become completely inept on offense since QB Sean Clifford was hurt in the Iowa game, so even if their defense can hold the Buckeyes to 30 points below their scoring average (54.25 against Big Ten teams), I don't think PSU can score enough to win, as OSU is only allowing 17 ppg in conference games. The Lions, meanwhile, are averaging only 19.5 ppg on offense (and that's with a 9 OT game) and giving up just 13.25 ppg. The Buckeyes lead the series 21-14, and have won the last 4, and 8 of the last 9. OSU wins again.
North Carolina @ Notre Dame- The Tar Heels have won 2 of their last 3, and are coming out of their off week. The Fighting Irish are 6-1, but 3 of those wins are by 3 points. The Irish lead the series 19-1, with the Tar Heels' lone victory coming in 1960 in Chapel Hill (they also won in 2008, but that win was vacated). Only 5 times has UNC finished within 1 score of ND in a loss- in 1950, 1951, 1956, 1975, and 2014, so in 14 out of 20 matchups, UNC has lost by at least 10. That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for an upset. Notre Dame wins.
Louisville @ NC State- The Cardinals upset Boston College last week while the Wolfpack were being upset by Miami. UL is only 2-2 in the ACC, but their losses have been by 3 to undefeated Wake Forest and by 1 to UVA. They also own wins over UCF and FSU. The Wolfpack also have a win over BC, and have a huge win over Clemson, but also a narrow escape over La Tech and a loss to Miss State. Louisville leads the series 7-3 (1 game was in the 2011 Belk Bowl, won by NC St), and is 3-1 in Raleigh. Call me crazy, but UL wins in an upset.
UCLA @ Utah- The Utes have been up and down, and last week they were down, losing to Oregon State. The Bruins have followed a similar profile, and last week also lost, to Oregon. Utah is 3-0 at home, and UCLA is 3-0 on the road, so something has to give. The Bruins lead the series 11-7, but the Utes have won the last 4. UCLA won the 1st 8 played, but 7 were from 1933-1974. Since 2006, Utah owns a 7-4 series lead. Utah wins again.
Virginia @ BYU- These teams 1st met in the All-American Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama in 1987, won 22-16 by Virginia. Since then, they have split their 4 meetings each going 1-1 in Provo and in Charlottesville (1999-2000, 2013-14). The Cougars started the season 5-0, but have lost 2 of 3 since. The Cavaliers started 2-2, but have won 4 straight. This is former BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall's 1st time bringing a team to Provo as a visiting coach, so it should be an interesting experience for both him and the BYU fans. This should be a high-scoring game. Wahoos win.
Fresno State @ San Diego State- I keep expecting the Aztecs to lose, and they keep pulling out narrow wins. The Bulldogs have had some close wins, too, and a couple of 1-score losses. SDSU leads the series 30-25-4, but it's been mostly even the last few years. This may be the kiss of death, but SDSU wins and stays unbeaten.
Washington @ Stanford- The Cardinal have lost 3 of their last 4, and the Huskies have lost 2 of their last 3. However, Stanford is coming out of their off week, so perhaps they've been able to fix some problems, which mainly boils down to this- when they score, their defense can't stop anyone, and when their defense plays well, they can't score. This is just about as close as a series can get, with Stanford leading 44-43-4, thanks to winning the last 2, and 12 of the last 16. Stanford wins again. Maybe...
That's all for this week- only 53 games!
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