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With a snow day today, I've had some time to put this blog together!
With all of the movement of teams between conferences, I thought it would be instructional to present the new conference structure all in one place. Please understand that all of this is still fluid, and timelines may change, but this is based on my latest research (Google is my friend!), but any division alignments are purely my own ideas and speculation. However, conferences may be moving away from divisions altogether so as to put the best 2 teams in their conference championship game, and increase their chances to get a team into the CFP, whenever it expands (assuming it ever does).
As of this writing, the Big Ten, ACC, Pac 12, Mountain West, and MAC will remain unchanged. Three conferences will be adding members in 2023, 1 in 2024, and 1 in 2025. The Independents will be losing 3 members, 2 who will be joining the CUSA, and 1 joining the Big 12. Let's explore them in chronological order.
Sun Belt
The SBC is expanding by 4 teams in 2023, but word is that 3 of the teams may come on board as early as this season, in 2022. They are adding Southern Miss, ODU, and Marshall from CUSA, and James Madison from the FCS. Any team transitioning from the FCS must go through a 2-year process, which the SBC is very familiar with, as they have helped several teams with that transition. At any rate, once the expansion is complete, this is how I expect their divisions to look (assuming they keep divisions).
East
Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
James Madison
Marshall
ODU
West
Arkansas State
Louisiana
South Alabama
Southern Miss
Texas State
Troy
ULM
Three of the new teams would join the East Division while Troy would move to the West. This would help to balance the divisions, as Troy has typically been a decent team, and Arkansas State has traditionally been good enough to challenge UL, though they struggled this past year.
CUSA
CUSA is expanding in 2023, but if it loses 3 members this year, it will be down to 11 for the 2022 season, and so may scrap divisions at that point. In 2023, it will have only 9 members, as it will be losing 6 additional members to the AAC, leaving only 5 remaining members from the 2021 season: WKU, Middle Tennessee, FIU, La Tech, and UTEP. They will be adding 2 members from the Independent ranks, and 2 from the FCS. The new CUSA will be:
FIU
Jacksonville State
La Tech
Liberty
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State
Sam Houston State
UTEP
WKU
With the 2-year transition period for JSU and SHS, I'm not sure if they will compete with only 7 "full" members in 2023.
AAC
The AAC will be expanding in 2023, adding 6 members from the current CUSA while losing 3 to the Big 12. This will bring their membership to 14, which could necessitate a split into divisions, should they choose to do so. If so, they could use the Mississippi River as a clear dividing line into East and West divisions. Here is how I would do it.
East
Charlotte
East Carolina
FAU
Memphis
Navy
Temple
USF
West
North Texas
Rice
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UTSA
However, with the Big 12 not planning to expand until the 2024 season, it's possible the AAC could contain 17 teams for the 2023 season. Should that happen, Cincinnati and UCF would be in the East and Houston in the West (I'm guessing, but who knows?).
Big 12
The Big 12 is expanding in the 2024 season, adding 3 teams from the AAC and 1 Independent. This will bring the total number back to its namesake- 12 teams. However, Oklahoma and Texas aren't scheduled to leave until the 2025 season, which means that it is possible that the conference could have 14 teams for 1 season. This conference could be divided in 2 ways: North/South or East/West. I'll present both here.
North
BYU
Cincinnati
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
West Virginia
South
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
UCF
East
Baylor
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
UCF
West Virginia
West
BYU
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
I think either alignment could work, as both seem to be competitively balanced. The East/West alignment seems a little less "spread out" especially for the West, but the division seems a little "forced". And if Oklahoma and Texas have to be in the Big 12 for the 1 year of expansion, you simply split them, Oklahoma in the North or West, and Texas in the South or East. Of course, they may decide not to do any divisions at all, but they won't be able to do a true round robin, unless they play only conference games.
SEC
The SEC is set to expand in 2025, and there has been a lot of discussion about splitting the conference up into 4-team pods, but I have a different proposal, one I think would work for the betterment of the conference.
East
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
West
Arkansas
LSU
Mississippi State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Texas
Texas A&M
The SEC would be divided along the Alabama-Mississippi line. Each team would play their 7 division opponents plus 1 from the other division. The last weekend would be reserved for the following setup:
#1 from the East would play #2 from the West, and #1 from the West would play #2 from the East, with the winners meeting in the SEC Championship Game the following weekend.
The remaining teams would meet their corresponding team from the other division- #3 would play #3, #4 would play #4, and so on.
To avoid a cross-division rematch (except for the top 2 teams; those are ok), a team may be switched with the team below (with the exception of #10, of course- that would have to be with the one above). For example, if the #4 teams have already played, they could be switched with the #5 teams, so that #4 would play #5.
If the SEC decides to go the pod route, here are my suggested pods:
South
Alabama
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Southeast
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
North
Kentucky
Missouri
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
West
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
I'm not sure how balanced these pods are as I just went with geography. Scheduling would then include 3 teams from your own pod, and 2 from each of the other 3 pods for a total of 9 games. I assume you would just pick the 2 teams with the best record for the SECCG, but would have no idea how you would break ties.
I hope this is helpful to you as we begin to navigate these changes. The most frustrating part for me was I had just figured out which teams were in which conference and which division, and could tell you at a moment's notice without having to look it up, but will now have to relearn it all. Oh well, it should at least keep my mind young!
I'll post on Twitter and Facebook when my next blog posts, but I will begin my previews for the 2022 season sometime in July. In the meantime, I may post before then as news happens (or the Spirit moves me). Follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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