College Football Preview Part IX 7-28-22

Welcome Back!

Today continues my preview of all 131 teams. These will be presented from #131 to #1, and are based on my own formula. At the end of the individual teams, which will take 3 weeks, I will present my conference predictions, which will take 2 weeks. Then, finally, it will be time for the first game week! Except it's called Week Zero. Whatever...

Anyway, here is what to expect, and what not to expect, from these previews. You will NOT get an extensive write up on each team, nor will you get each team's schedule. There are several fine magazines and websites where you can find that sort of information. Instead, I will present the team name, their record last year, and their coach. I will then present some data that I find interesting and can't be found anywhere else, as I do them myself- in other words, you would need to do them yourself to get the same info. This data is how each team has done over the last 3, 6 and 10 years- their record, their winning percentage, and where that ranks within the FBS. And then I'll give you some data that can be found elsewhere- last league title, last bowl (or last year they didn't go to a bowl), and last year's offensive and defensive stats and where they rank nationally and within their conference. Finally, I give you my personal assessment of what would constitute a successful season and what what would qualify as a disappointment (yes, it's different for each team), and I give you some interesting notes on each team. Some teams will have more written about them, some less, but basically it's what I found fascinating, and focuses mostly on QBs, kickers and punters, some interesting stats not covered above, and some interesting historical facts.

I hope you find these entertaining and informative! You are more than welcome to disagree. Feel free to leave a comment. Please realize that since I do all this myself, I have no editor, and though I proofread everything, there are likely to be typos and misspellings. Finally, during the 1st game week, I'll reprint the Power Rankings in one list; that way you don't have to keep referring back to 3 weeks worth of blogs, or make the effort to write these down. Please realize that this is not a prediction of where the teams will finish the season; this is an assessment of where they stand now. And other than the actual write-ups, none of the rankings are based on my opinion. I use several different formulas to come up with my rankings, and then combine them to get my final Power Ranking. I will adjust these each week of the season based on wins and losses, and I will eventually drop my preseason factors, so that by midseason, the Power Ranking will be based on results from this season only.

Enjoy! 

50- Toledo Rockets 7-6/5-3

Coach: Jason Candle (7th year, 7th overall)

3-year record/rank: 17-14/.548/T59

6-year record/rank: 44-27/.620/T33

10-year record/rank: 79-42/.653/22

Last League Title: 2017

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 33.4 ppg- 26th/1st MAC

Rushing: 196,2 ypg- 30th/4th

Passing: 239.1 ypg- 61st/6th

Total: 435.2 ypg- 37th/4th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 21.8 ppg- 27th/1st

Rushing: 151.5 ypg- 64th/4th

Passing: 198.2 ypg- 22nd/3rd

Total: 349.7 ypg- 46th/2nd

TO Margin: +7/+0.54/gm- 27th/2nd

A good season means… a return to the MAC title game for the 1st time since 2017, which means winning the MAC West. Anything less will be a disappointment. Their OOC games are a mixed bag: FCS Long Island, UMass, @Ohio St, and @SDSU, so probably 2-2 before starting MAC play. They draw Kent St, Buffalo, and Bowling Green out of the East, with only Buffalo on the road, but they must travel to NIU, EMU, and WMU within the division.

A disappointing season means… 2nd place or lower in the MAC West. This is likely to happen if Toledo runs into trouble with injuries, turnovers, or has trouble winning close games, like last year.

Notes: QB Dequan Finn (2,067 yds, 18 TDs, 2 INTs) returns; K Thomas Cluckey (14-24 FGs, long of 50) returns, but P will be new; the Rockets lost 4 games by 3 pts or less, and lost their bowl by 7.

49- Louisville Cardinals 6-7/4-4

Coach: Scott Satterfield (4th year, 9th overall FBS

3-year record/rank: 18-19/.486/74

6-year record/rank: 37-38/.493/T76

10-year record/rank: 77-50/.606/37

Last League Title: 2012 Big East co-champs

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 31.6 ppg- 41st/7th ACC

Rushing: 209.8 ypg- 22nd/3rd

Passing: 236.4 ypg- 65th/8th

Total: 446.2 ypg- 21st/6th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 27.3 ppg- 77th/8th

Rushing: 157.7 ypg- 76th/7th

Passing: 245.6 ypg- 95th/10th

Total: 403.3 ypg- 84th/9th

TO Margin: +2/+0.15/gm- 53rd/4th

A good season means… 7 or more wins and a top 4 finish in the ACC Atlantic. But even that may not be enough to save HC Satterfield’s job. In fact, nothing short of 9 wins and a 2nd place finish may keep him in Louisville. Their OOC slate includes 2 AAC teams, @UCF and USF, an SBC team, James Madison, and annual rival @Kentucky. Their crossover games are @UVA and Pitt. Can they get to 8 or 9 wins and challenge for a division title? It will all depend on QB Cunningham staying healthy and their defense improving.

A disappointing season means… another 6 wins or less in the regular season, another .500 record or so in the ACC, and the end of HC Satterfield’s tenure in Louisville (probably).

Notes: QB Malik Cunningham (2,941 yds, 19 TDs, 6 INTs, 62.0% completions, 1,031 yds rushing, 6.0 ypc, 20 TDs) returns for his 4th season as starter; K James Turner (14-22 FGs, long of 46, just 6-13 from 40+) and P Mark Vassett (41.9 avg, 38.6 avg net) return; Cardinals were 0-4 in games decided by 6 pts or less; UL has lost 3 straight to Kentucky by a combined 109 pts; 1st 2 games, and 4 of 1st 6 are on the road.

48- North Carolina Tar Heels 6-7/3-5

Coach: Mack Brown (4th year back, 33rd overall)

3-year record/rank: 21-17/.553/58

6-year record/rank: 34-40/.459/91

10-year record/rank: 66-60/.524/67

Last League Title: 1980

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2018

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 35.2 ppg- 19th/3rd ACC

Rushing: 212.6 ypg- 18th/2nd

Passing: 255.7 ypg- 42nd/6th

Total: 468.3 ypg- 10th/3rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 32.1 ppg- 105th/12th

Rushing: 180.0 ypg- 97th/10th

Passing: 238.0 ypg- 84th/8th

Total: 418.0 ypg- 94th/11th
TO Margin: +2/+0.15/gm- 53rd/4th

A good season means… 7 or 8 wins, and perhaps challenging for the ACC Coastal Division title and a spot in the ACCCG. They should go 3-1 in their OOC games, FCS Fla A&M, @App St, @Ga St, and Notre Dame, but I wouldn’t sell the 2 SBC teams short, as both have upset P5 teams before, and will have amped up crowds at home. UNC’s crossover games are @Wake Forest and NC State, which are both pretty tough (expected to be at or near the top of the ACC Atlantic). That means they may need to go 4-2, or even 5-1, within their division to get to 7 or 8 wins.

A disappointing season means… another 6 wins or less for the 2nd year in a row, which likely means they struggled to find consistency from the QB position and the running game, and/or the defense doesn’t improve as much as hoped.

Notes: QB position is unsettled, but will probably be between Jacoby Criswell (179 yds, 1TD, 0 INTs, 61.9% completions) and Drake Maye (89 yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 70.0% completions), or it could be both in a rotation; new DC is former Auburn and Iowa St HC Gene Chizik (was DC for HC Brown at Texas, and DC at UNC in ‘15-’16); K will be new, but P Ben Kiernan (43.7 avg, 36.4 avg net) returns; UNC was 0-6 on the road; the Tar Heels blocked 5 kicks last season, but ranked last or next-to-last in the ACC in net kickoff yardage, net punting, and KOR; offense had 73 plays of 20+ yds (6th FBS), but QB Sam Howell is gone; 3 losses were by 7 pts or less.

47- Army Black Knights 9-4

Coach: Jeff Monken (9th year, 9th overall FBS)

3-year record/rank: 23-15/.605/T39

6-year record/rank: 52-25/.693/T16

10-year record/rank: 63-65/.504/T71

Last League Title: N/A

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2019

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 32.8 ppg- 32nd

Rushing: 280.6 ypg- 2nd

Passing: 94.8 ypg- 129th

Total: 375.5 ypg- 83rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 22.3 ppg- 33rd

Rushing: 117.2 ypg- 16th

Passing: 211.2 ypg- 38th

Total: 328.4 ypg- 15th

TO Margin: +8/+0.62/gm- 19th

A good season means… another season with 9 or more wins, which would be their 5th in the last 6 years, and of course winning the CIC Trophy. Their only Power 5 opponent this year is Wake Forest (on the road), but they play several quality G5 teams: @CCU, UTSA, Ga St, @Troy, and of course their annual games with Air Force and Navy. They also have 2 games with FCS teams, and 2 games against fellow independents UConn and @UMass. 

A disappointing season means… a result like 2019, where they started 3-1, then lost 5 straight before splitting their last 4. I would be surprised if that happened.

Notes: The Black Knights may use a 2 QB system with Tyhier Tyler (486 rushing yds, only 7 pass attempts) and Cade Ballard or Jemel Jones; LB Andre Carter set an academy record with 15.5 sacks last year (2nd FBS behind Alabama’s Will Anderson); K Cole Talley (8-11 FGs, long of 41, 7-8 inside 40) returns, but P will be new; schedule includes 4 teams that had 10 wins last season; Tyrell Robinson avg 12.8 PR; Army has at least 9 wins in 4 of last 5 seasons; offense avg 10.2 possessions per game (2nd fewest FBS), but scored a TD on 42.5% of drives (3rd FBS); 

46- Liberty Flames 8-5

Coach: Hugh Freeze (4th year, 10th overall FBS)

3-year record/rank: 26-11/.703/T21

6-year record/rank: 32-17/.653/25 (4 years)

10-year record/rank: N/A

Last League Title: 2014 Big South co-champs

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2018

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 33.6 ppg- 25th

Rushing: 180.8 ypg- 46th

Passing: 255.4 ypg- 44th

Total: 436.2 ypg- 35th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 21.5 ppg- 24th

Rushing: 139.9 ypg- 45th

Passing: 180.3 ypg- 6th

Total: 320.2 ypg- 11th

TO Margin: -9/-0.69/gm- 121st

A good season means… 6+ wins, as their schedule is much more difficult than it has ever been. This year, they play 4 Power 5 schools for the 1st time ever: @Wake Forest, BYU, @Arkansas, and Va Tech. In addition, they play some quality G5 teams in @Southern Miss, UAB, and @ODU. They also play some easier games against Akron, @UMass, @UConn, and New Mexico St, and they have a game against an FCS team. 6 to 8 wins against this schedule would be a good accomplishment.

A disappointing season means… dropping below 6 wins for the 1st time as an FBS team, which would be a poor way to end their time as an independent.

Notes: Liberty will be joining CUSA next year; QB is open, though it could be Baylor/Utah transfer Charlie Brewer, with Johnathan Bennett, Kaidon Salter, Nate Upton also possibilities to replace Malik Willis (off to the NFL); offense attempted thirty 4th down conversions; K Brayden Beck (4-5 FGs, long of 43, 34-37 PATs) and Ps Max Morgan and Aiden Alves (team net of 40.0 avg) all return; defense allowed only 33 plays of 20+ yds (4th FBS); OL allowed 52 sacks; Flames are just the 3rd team to be bowl eligible each of its 1st 3 seasons!

45- UCLA Bruins 8-4/6-3

Coach: Chip Kelly (5th year, 9th overall)

3-year record/rank: 15-16/.484/T78

6-year record/rank: 28-40/.412/T100

10-year record/rank: 65-56/.537/60

Last League Title: 1998

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 36.5 ppg- 12th/1st PAC 12

Rushing: 215.1 ypg- 14th/2nd

Passing: 226.2 ypg- 70th/4th

Total: 441.2 ypg- 31st/2nd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 26.8 ppg- 74th/8th

Rushing: 124.2 ypg- 23rd/2nd

Passing: 260.2 ypg- 107th/12th

Total: 384.4 ypg- 70th/7th

TO Margin: +7/+0.58/gm- 22nd/3rd

A good season means… improving on last year’s 8 wins (their OOC schedule is ridiculously easy!) and perhaps challenging for a berth in the PAC12CG. They play Bowling Green, FCS Alabama St, and S Alabama to open the season, all at home, and they avoid Oregon St and Wash St in the conference. After their 1st 3 games, they play @Colorado, then Washington, so they have a great chance to be 5-0 when they host Utah on Oct 8. After that, they have only 3 more road games, Oregon, Ariz St, and Cal. If QB DTR and RB Charbonnet can stay healthy, and if their passing defense can improve to even just middle of the pack in the PAC 12, they have a great chance at double digit wins.

A disappointing season means… backsliding to 6 or less wins and finishing in the bottom half of the PAC 12. The only way I see that happening is if they are beset with injuries and/or turnover problems and/or their defense doesn’t improve at all or gets worse. 

Notes: UCLA will be joining the Big Ten in 2024; QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (2,409 yds, 21 TDs, 6 INTs, 62.2% completions, 609 yds rushing, 4.7 ypc, 9 TD) returns, as does former Michigan transfer RB Zach Charbonnet (1,137 yds, 5.6 ypc, 13 TDs rushing, 24 Rec, 197 yds, 8.2 ypc, 0 TDs); K Nicholas Barr-Mira (14-21 FGs, long of 48, 2 misses 50+) returns, but P will be new; Bruins gave up 5+ KOR of 30+ yds; defense allowed 5.15 ypc; Bruins avg 7.08 penalties per game (102nd FBS) and 64.5 penalty ypg (109th); HC Kelly has worst record after 4 years (18-25) than any UCLA coach who has lasted 4+ yrs, and has only 2 wins vs a team with a winning record!

44- Memphis Tigers 6-6/3-5

Coach: Ryan Silverfield (3rd year, 3rd overall)

3-year record/rank: 26-11/.703/T21

6-year record/rank: 52-25/.675/19

10-year record/rank: 78-49/.614/35

Last League Title: 2019

Last Bowl: 2020 Montgomery

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 30.1 ppg- 52nd/5th AAC

Rushing: 136.2 ypg- 92nd/10th

Passing: 298.8 ypg- 16th/2nd

Total: 434.9 ypg- 38th/3rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 29.2 ppg- 91st/8th

Rushing: 167.4 ypg- 89th/9th

Passing: 250.8 ypg- 103rd/8th

Total: 418.2 ypg- 95th/9th

TO Margin: -1/-0.08/gm- 74th/5th

A good season means… returning to 8+ wins, which would be the 8th time in the last 9 years, and perhaps challenging for a berth in the AACCG, which, if they make it, would be the 4th time in the last 6 years. Their OOC schedule is not overly challenging- @Miss St, Ark St, N Texas, and FCS N Alabama- so they should come out of those games 3-1 at worst. In the AAC, they miss Cincinnati and USF, and they play most of the other contenders at home. If they can establish a running game, and improve their defense, they have a chance at a special season, maybe including the G5 NY6 berth.

A disappointing season means… a repeat of last year’s 6-6 season and 3-5 conference record, which would match their worst since going 1-7 in 2013.

Notes: QB Seth Henigan (3,322 yds, 25 TDs, 8 INTs) returns; K-P Joe Doyle (7-12 FGs, long of 51, 46.0 avg punts, 40.0 avg net) returns; offense attempted 36 4th-down conversions (3rd most FBS) and was successful on 61.1%; Tigers are 18-2 in November since 2016, and is 20-2 at home since 2017.

43- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 13-1/8-0

Coach: Michael Desormeaux (1st year, 1st overall)

3-year record/rank: 34-5/.872/3

6-year record/rank: 52-26/.667/23

10-year record/rank: 83-46/.643/25

Last League Title: 2021

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2017

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 31.1 ppg- 45th/3rd SBC

Rushing: 187.1 ypg- 40th/5th

Passing: 217.7 ypg- 78th/6th

Total: 404.8 ypg- 64th/3rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 18.5 ppg- 11th/1st

Rushing: 144.5 ypg- 54th/4th

Passing: 190.1 ypg- 14th/1st

Total: 334.6 ypg- 22nd/1st

TO Margin: +15/+1.07/gm- 2nd/1st

A good season means… a return to the SBCCG. Anything less is unacceptable, especially playing in the weak West Division. Their OOC games are manageable- FCS SE La, E Mich, @Rice, and @FSU- so 3-1 should be their worst outcome. Their crossover games are @Marshall and Ga Southern, so, at worst, that should translate to 1-1. The only team in the division that seems capable of beating them, barring an upset, of course, is Troy, and they get the Trojans at home. While they won’t be near as good as in the past 2-3 years, I see a good chance at 9 or 10 wins in the regular season.

A disappointing season means… a huge step back, finishing anywhere but 1st in the SBC West, and winning less than 9 games would be a huge disappointment.

Notes: QB is likely to be Chandler Fields (9-13 for 106 yds backing up Levi Lewis last year), but he could be pushed by Fresno St transfer Ben Wooldridge or Maryland transfer Lance LeGendre; K Keith Almendares (4-5 FGs before injury, long of 48) and P Rhys Byrns (46.1 avg, 43.1 avg net, 1st team All-SBC) return; Louisiana has the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 games; Ragin’ Cajuns have won all 4 West Division titles since the Sun Belt split into divisions; defense set a school record with only 18.5 ppg allowed.

42- Mississippi State Bulldogs 7-6/4-4

Coach: Mike Leach (3rd year, 21st overall)

3-year record/rank: 17-20/.459/85

6-year record/rank: 40-36/.526/66

10-year record/rank: 74-54/.578/46

Last League Title: 1941

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2009

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 29.1 ppg- 59th/9th SEC

Rushing: 63.2 ypg- 130th/14th

Passing: 378.3 ypg- 4th/1st

Total: 441,5 ypg- 29th/7th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 25.9 ppg- 63rd/9th

Rushing: 113.0 ypg- 12th/3rd

Passing: 231.8 ypg- 71st/10th

Total: 344.8 ypg- 30th/5th

TO Margin: -2/-0.15/gm- 80th/10th

A good season means… at least matching last year’s 7 wins, and perhaps topping it, but they have one of the nation’s toughest schedules. They will need to sweep their OOC games- Memphis, @Arizona, Bowling Green, and FCS E Tenn St- to have any hopes of reaching 8 wins, as their SEC crossover games are @Kentucky and Georgia. Their division road games are LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

A disappointing season means… a slide back to 6 or less wins and a bottom half finish in the SEC West.

Notes: QB Will Rogers (4,739 yds, 36 TDs, 9 INTs, 73.9% completions) returns for his 3rd season; K will probably be CCU transfer Massimo Biscardi (46-57 career FGs, long of 53), but P Archer Trafford (42.4 avg) returns; 3 losses were by 3 pts or less.

41- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-2/6-2

Coach: Jamey Chadwell (5th year, 5th overall FBS)

3-year record/rank: 27-10/.730/16

6-year record/rank: 35-26/.574/45 (5 years)

10-year record/rank: N/A

Last League Title: 2020 co-champs

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2019

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 40.9 ppg- 5th/1st SBC

Rushing: 228.8 ypg- 6th/1st

Passing: 265.9 ypg- 28th/2nd

Total: 494.7 ypg- 5th/1st

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 21.6 ppg- 25th/2nd

Rushing: 149.1 ypg- 61st/6th

Passing: 190.3 ypg- 16th/2nd

Total: 339.4 ypg- 25th/3rd

TO Margin: +2/+0.15/gm- 53rd/6th

A good season means… a winning season and perhaps challenging for the SBC East crown, but a 3rd straight double digit win season seems doubtful, as they have a difficult schedule. Their OOC games are Army, FCS Gardner-Webb, Buffalo, and @Virginia, so going 3-1 against that slate would be an accomplishment. Their crossover games are @ULM and Southern Miss, 2 games they should win, but they have division road games against Ga St, Marshall, and JMU. 8 or 9 wins seems to be their ceiling in this transition year with so many players graduating/moving on.

A disappointing season means… a drop back to 6 or less wins, and finishing no higher than 4th in the SBC East.

Notes: QB Grayson McCall (2 time SBC POY) returns for his 3rd season; K and P will be new; CCU blocked 4 punts.

 That's all for today! Come back tomorrow for Part X- #s 40-31, and check out my past blogs for previous previews.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!