Paul's Picks Week Zero
Welcome Back!
College Football is back! The first games are in 2 days, and it's a rather sparse weekend, hence the "Week Zero" moniker. Last year, I finished at 73.6%, which was below my usual average (I'm usually around 75%). You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for right around 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
In this space each week, I will update you on my picking percentage, and whether it went up or down from the previous week. My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 75%, but I think my high has been around 78%. Last year, I was 74.4% during the regular season, so I was pretty close to my average.
I will also give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
Now... on with the first picks of the 2021 season!
Saturday, August 27
Austin Peay @ WKU- The Hilltoppers should have no problems with the Governors, who went 6-5 last year. WKU leads the all-time series 35-6-1. WKU wins easily.
Nebraska @ Northwestern (Dublin, Ireland)- This is a key game for the Cornhuskers in year 5 under HC Scott Frost, but the Wildcats are also looking to bounce back from their 2nd 3-9 season in the last 3 years. Nebraska leads the all-time series 9-6 , but are only 6-5 since joining the Big Ten, and Northwestern has won 3 of the last 5, though the Huskers won 56-7 last year. Interestingly, they 1st played in 1902, then again in 1931 (NW's lone win before Nebraska joined the Big Ten), 1974, and finally in the 2000 Alamo Bowl (won 66-17 by Nebraska), and now they play every year as part of the Big Ten West. However, the Big Ten is doing away with divisions starting next year, so that is likely to change. Anyway, I have a feeling that the Cornhuskers will actually have a .500 record or better this year, and that starts with a victory in their opening game, something they've done only once (2019) in the Frost era. Cornhuskers win, but it will be MUCH closer than last year (and that 2000 Alamo Bowl!).
Idaho State @ UNLV- The Rebels will be looking for their 1st opening game victory since 2019, which was also against an FCS team. However, they are only 1-2 in their last 3 openers against FCS teams, including a 2-pt loss last year to E Wash. They are only 5-3 all-time against the Bengals, but ISU was only 1-10 last year, and UNLV should be much improved this year. UNLV wins, but don't expect a rout.
UConn @ Utah State- The Aggies won the only previous meeting between these 2 teams, 38-31 in November of 2001 in Storrs, CT, and they're looking for their 2nd straight opening game victory in HC Blake Anderson's 2nd year. The Huskies are looking to rebuild under 1st year HC Jim Mora, and are looking for their 1st FBS win over a team not named UMass since 2017, when they beat Temple and Tulsa in back-to-back weeks. Coming off an 11-3 season, USU should have no problems with UConn. Utah State wins big.
Wyoming @ Illinois- The Illini are looking for their 2nd straight opening victory in their 2nd year under HC Bret Bielema, while the Cowboys are looking to secure their 2nd straight, and 4th in their last 5 years (only loss in that span was in OT to Nevada in 2020). This is the 1st time these 2 teams have ever met, which is interesting, since the Illini has been playing since 1892, and the Cowboys since 1905. Illinois should win this, especially at home, but they better be on upset alert, as Wyoming is capable of pulling the upset, as they did versus Missouri in 2019. Illinois wins.
Duquesne @ FSU- The Seminoles should have no problems with the Dukes in this 1st ever matchup, even though the Dukes were 7-3 last year. FSU wins big. However, if they lose to an FCS team for the 2nd year in a row, this could be the beginning of the end for HC Norvell.
Charlotte @ FAU- The Owls are coming off their 3rd 5-win season in the last 4 years, and their only opening game win in the last 5 years was over the 49ers. Charlotte also won 5 games last year (including their opener over Duke), and are looking to get back to the 7 wins (or more) they had in 2019 (HC Will Healy's 1st year). FAU leads the series 5-2, and has won the last 3, including 38-9 last year. Interestingly, both losses were in Florida, as the Owls are only 1-2 in the state. FAU will win, but it will be closer than last year.
Florida A&M @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels should have no problems with the Rattlers, though FAMU finished 9-3 a year ago. UNC wins big, but it may be close for a half or so.
North Texas @ UTEP- This is a huge game for both teams! The Mean Green ended last season with a 5-game winning streak (not counting the bowl loss to Miami, Oh), including over CUSA champion UTSA by 22 points. Meanwhile, the Miners need to prove that last year was no fluke, as although they finished last year at 7-6, none of their victories was over a team with a winning record (ODU was 6-6 in the regular season, but finished 6-7). Even their FCS win was over a team that was 2-9! UNT leads the series, that began in 1951, 19-8-3, and has won the last 5. These teams played regularly from '51 through '68, then for 4 years from 1977-80, then picked up again in 2013. UTEP is looking for their 1st back-to-back winning seasons since 2004-05, and a win here would go a long way toward that end, as they travel to Oklahoma next week. UNT is looking to keep their momentum going from last year, and avoid the 1-6 start they had in '21, so they also need this win. The Miners are looking for their 4th straight opening win while the Mean Green are looking for their 6th, so one of those streaks will be broken. This should be a close, hard fought game, like the last 2, won by UNT by a combined 5 points. I'm going with the home team in a mild upset. UTEP wins.
Nevada @ New Mexico State- Both teams are coming in with new head coaches, but Ken Wilson of Nevada is a 1st time HC, while Jerry Kill of NMSU has 9 years of experience. The Wolf Pack have dominated the series, leading 14-2, and have won the last 4 matchups. The last win for the Aggies was in 2008, with the only other win being in 1998, both of those in Reno, which means NMSU is 0-8 in Las Cruces. Nevada has won their last 4 openers, including wins over Purdue, Wyoming in OT, and @ Cal; the Aggies haven't won an opener since 2014 (8 straight losses). I may be crazy, but I think NMSU gets that win and breaks both streaks.
Vanderbilt @ Hawaii- This will be the first ever meeting between these 2 teams. The Commodores had a poor season last year, going 0-8 in the SEC, losing to an FCS team in their opener, and defeating only Colo St and UConn, so they desperately need this win to get their 2022 off to a good start, as it would be their 1st win in an opener since 2018. The Rainbow Warriors would love nothing better than a victory over an SEC team, even if it is Vandy. I'm expecting the 'Dores to take a (slight) step forward in year 2 under HC Clark Lea, while I'm expecting the opposite in year 1 under new HC Timmy Chang at Hawaii. Vandy wins, but it will be close.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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