Power Rankings 9-20-22

Welcome Back!

After 3 weeks, we are starting to get an idea of which teams are pretty good, and which ones aren't. However, my rankings are still heavily weighted toward my preseason factors, so although there is more movement, some teams are still way too high, and others way too low. This will all come out in the end, but it is a little frustrating in the early part of the season. However, I feel a little explanation is due, so that you, the reader, can get a little understanding of how my Power Rankings work.

I use my own formula-no, I'm not going to give that away- and none of it is subjective, except for the weight assigned to each aspect, of course. Before the season starts, I use 8 data points to come up with my preseason rankings. Some are worth more than others, but each team receives a set of points from each of these data points. After compiling these, the points ranged from a high of 1253.83 (Alabama) to a low of 30.455 (UMass). The other 129 teams fall somewhere in between. What that means is that each team is an average of around 9.5 points apart, but of course they aren't evenly spaced. Some teams are 20 or more points ahead or behind, and sometimes, there are 5 or 6 teams within 2 or 3 points of each other.

When a team wins, they get points using a formula based on who they beat, the margin of victory, and whether it was at home or on the road. Typically, a win will be worth between 5-10 points, but sometimes may be worth more. Occasionally, a win may be worth negative points, if it was a close game against an FCS team, for example. A loss is the opposite: typically negative 5-10, but can be more, and at times might even be positive if it is a close loss to the #1 team, for example. 

Another factor which affects the rankings is what happens to the teams around a particular team. If Team A loses by a lot, you would expect them to drop several spots. However, if 2 or more teams directly below them also lose, they may only move down one spot, or not at all, especially if there is a large enough gap between that set of teams and the teams below them. The same applies to teams that win a big game.

I'm telling you all this to explain why some teams may have a big win (or loss) but barely move in the rankings. This week, I dropped the 1st 2 of my 10 preseason factors. I was really surprised as to how this affected the rankings. It looks to have enhanced most G5 teams and "penalized" the P5 teams, as the gap from the #1 team to the #131 team has narrowed. You will see some teams that lost to "lesser" teams move up, especially among the G5. I can only tell you that these teams generally didn't receive as many points in the 2 categories that I dropped as P5 teams do, and so it appears that they get a jump in the rankings. This will all even out over the next few weeks as more preseason factors get dropped over the coming weeks, and as the difference in points from the top to the bottom narrows further, each win and loss will move teams more and more within the rankings.

Now that i've been through all that, let's talk about this week's rankings. Out of 131 teams, 25 had no movement (down from 50 last week), 13 moved up or down 1 spot only (43 last week), 12 moved 2 spots (20 LW), 12 moved 3 (12 LW), 13 moved 4 (4 LW),  11 moved 5 (1 LW), 13 moved 6, 7 moved 7, 4 moved 8 (1 LW), 7 moved 9, 2 moved 10, 6 moved 11, 2 moved 13, 1 moved 14, 2 moved 15 and 1 moved 20. The top 8 were unchanged, and there was no change in the bottom 4. 

Here are the teams that improved the most:

Western Michigan +15 to #55

Wyoming +15 to #74

Nevada +14 to #76

Army +11 to #42

Navy +11 to #77

Central Michigan +10 to #61

UCF +9 to #20

Liberty +9 to #38

Middle Tennessee +9 to #84

Buffalo +9 to #87

La Tech +9 to #88

San Diego State +8 to #28

FAU +8 to #69

Tulsa +8 to #75

Here are the teams that dropped the most:

Nebraska -20 to #99

Houston -13 to #45

Arkansas -13 to #64

UCLA -11 to #57

Virginia -11 to #82

Northern Illinois -11 to #96

Illinois -11 to #97

Texas Tech -10 to #90

Northwestern -9 to #91

Arizona State -8 to #65

NOTE: As shown in the chart above, most of the drops are P5 teams, and most of those moving up are G5 teams. I expected that somewhat, but not this dramatically. I'll be curious to see how the next few weeks pan out as I drop more preseason factors.

Anyway, here are my rankings from 1 to 131 (LW stands for Last Week's Ranking). One thing that is new is that I have added the AP rankings in a separate column, so you can see how my rankings compare to the AP Poll:

Rank	Team	LW	AP
1	Alabama	1	2
2	Ohio State	2	3
3	Georgia	3	1
4	Clemson	4	5
5	Michigan	5	4
6	Texas A&M	6	23
7	Utah	7	13
8	Oklahoma State	8	9
9	Cincinnati	10
10	Notre Dame	9
11	Oklahoma	11	6
12	Iowa	14
13	Appalachian State	19
14	BYU	12	19
15	Wisconsin	13
16	Penn State	15	14
17	Pittsburgh	18	24
18	LSU	21
19	NC State	16	12
20	UCF	29
21	Baylor	17	17
22	Florida	22	20
23	Boise State	26
24	Oregon	20	15
25	Air Force	30
26	Kentucky	23	8
27	USC	24	7
28	San Diego State	36
29	Miami, Fl	25	25
30	Wake Forest	27	21
31	Auburn	33
32	Minnesota	38
33	Michigan State	28
34	Iowa State	39
35	Texas	34	22
36	Tennessee	31	11
37	Coastal Carolina	41
38	Liberty	47
39	Memphis	46
40	Louisiana	43
41	Ole Miss	35	16
42	Army	53
43	Kansas State	37
44	Toledo	48
45	Houston	32
46	Fresno State	40
47	North Carolina	44
48	Mississippi State	42
49	Marshall	55
50	Washington	51	18
51	UTSA	54
52	UAB	58
53	Louisville	49
54	Western Michigan	69
55	WKU	61
56	UCLA	45
57	SMU	56
58	FSU	52
59	Utah State	63
60	Central Michigan	70
61	West Virginia	64
62	TCU	60
63	Arkansas	50	10
64	Washington State	68
65	Arizona State	57
66	Missouri	66
67	Boston College	62
68	Purdue	59
69	FAU	77
70	Miami, OH	74
71	Oregon State	65
72	Stanford	72
73	South Carolina	67
74	Wyoming	89
75	Tulsa	83
76	Nevada	90
77	Navy	88
78	Virginia Tech	75
79	California	73
80	Georgia State	78
81	Syracuse	81
82	Virginia	71
83	Maryland	76
84	Middle Tenn	93
85	East Carolina	84
86	Indiana	87
87	Buffalo	96
88	La Tech	97
89	Tulane	92
90	Texas Tech	80
91	Northwestern	82
92	North Texas	91
93	Kent State	95
94	Georgia Southern	99
95	Troy	94
96	Northern Illinois	85
97	Illinois	86
98	Ohio	103
99	Nebraska	79
100	Eastern Michigan	102
101	Ball State	108
102	San Jose State	101
103	Arkansas State	105
104	Colorado	100
105	Rutgers	98
106	South Alabama	106
107	Hawai'i	113
108	ODU	107
109	Colorado State	104
110	Southern Miss	111
111	Charlotte	115
112	USF	112
113	Georgia Tech	109
114	UTEP	114
115	Arizona	110
116	Duke	116
117	ULM	121
118	Rice	125
119	Temple	119
120	Bowling Green	122
121	New Mexico	123
122	Kansas	117
123	James Madison	118
124	Texas State	124
125	FIU	127
126	UNLV	126
127	Vanderbilt	120
128	Akron	128
129	New Mexico State	129
130	UConn	130
131	UMass	131

Feel free to leave a comment. Check out my TWIF Notes from yesterday, and come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!