Power Rankings 9-27-22

Welcome Back!

After 4 weeks, we are starting to get an idea of which teams are pretty good, and which ones aren't. However, my rankings are still heavily weighted toward my preseason factors, so although there is more movement, some teams are still way too high, and others way too low. This will all come out in the end, but it is a little frustrating in the early part of the season. However, I'm beginning to feel this is a feature, and not a bug, of my Power Rankings. Let me explain what I mean.

If my rankings at this point of the season were based strictly on results, then all of the undefeated teams would be ranked high, and teams with 2 or more losses would be ranked in the bottom 3rd. However, we all know that not all wins or losses are equal. A team like James Madison is undefeated, but has only played 3 games, and only one is a quality win. Meanwhile, Kent State is 1-3, but has lost to 3 P5 teams, and Notre Dame is 2-2. Who out there really thinks the Dukes are better than the Fighting Irish? I've found that it sometimes takes a few weeks for some teams to jell, and so not having them yo-yo up and down the rankings actually is a truer measure of their relative strengths.

This week, you'll notice teams that won impressively moving down, or teams that got routed moving up. This is due to the fact that I dropped 2 more preseason factors. Also, I have discovered that sometimes a team's movement has less to do with how that individual team performed, and more to do with how the teams around it did. And some of it is just a course correction from preseason expectations that haven't been met or have been exceeded.

Now that I've been through all that, let's talk about this week's rankings. Out of 131 teams, 14 had no movement (down from 25 last week), 17 moved up or down 1 spot only (13 last week), 18 moved 2 spots (12 LW), 12 moved 3 (12 LW), 13 moved 4 (13 LW),  13 moved 5 (11 LW), 11 moved 6 (13 LW), 3 moved 7 (7LW), 2 moved 8 (4 LW), 4 moved 9 (7 LW), 3 moved 10 (2 LW), 7 moved 11 (6 LW), 5 moved 12 (0 LW), 4 moved 13 (2 LW), 3 moved 14 (1 LW), 0 moved 15 (2 LW), 1 moved 19 (0 LW), 0 moved 20 (1 LW),  and 1 moved 21. The top 5 were unchanged, and there was no change to the bottom 2. 

Here are the teams that improved the most:

Coastal Carolina +21 to #16

Middle Tennessee +14 to #70

Georgia Southern +14 to #80

Wyoming +13 to #61

San Jose State +13 to #89

Liberty +12 to #26

UTSA +12 to #39

Kent State +12 to #81

Miami, Oh +11 to #59

Troy +11 to #84

James Madison +11 to #112

Air Force +10 to #15 (I don't anticipate them staying this high for long)

Nevada +10 to #66

Eastern Michigan +10 to #90

Here are the teams that dropped the most:

Stanford -19 to #91

South Carolina -14 to #87

Miami, Fl -13 to #42

Texas -13 to #48

Nebraska -12 to #111

Georgia Tech -12 to #125 (some of this is due to losing their coach bonus)

Maryland -11 to #94

East Carolina -11 to #96

Northwestern -11 to #102

Arizona -11 to #126

Anyway, here are my rankings from 1 to 131 (LW stands for Last Week's Ranking). One thing that is new is that I have added the AP rankings in a separate column, so you can see how my rankings compare to the AP Poll:

Rank	Team	LW	AP
1	Alabama	1	2
2	Ohio State	2	3
3	Georgia	3	1
4	Clemson	4	5
5	Michigan	5	4
6	Utah	7	12
7	Cincinnati	9
8	Texas A&M	6	17
9	Oklahoma State	8	9
10	Iowa	12
11	Notre Dame	10
12	BYU	14	19
13	Appalachian State	13
14	Penn State	16	11
15	Air Force	25
16	Coastal Carolina	37
17	Oklahoma	11	18
18	Wisconsin	15
19	Pittsburgh	17	24
20	LSU	18
21	UCF	20
22	NC State	19	10
23	Baylor	21	16
24	Kentucky	26	7
25	San Diego State	28
26	Liberty	38
27	Florida	22
28	Wake Forest	30	22
29	Oregon	24	13
30	Iowa State	34
31	USC	27	6
32	Boise State	23
33	Army	42
34	Minnesota	32	21
35	Memphis	39
36	Auburn	31
37	Louisiana	40
38	Tennessee	36	8
39	UTSA	51
40	Toledo	44
41	Michigan State	33
42	Miami, Fl	29
43	Kansas State	43	25
44	Houston	45
45	North Carolina	47
46	Fresno State	46
47	Ole Miss	41	14
48	Texas	35
49	WKU	55
50	Washington	50	15
51	Western Michigan	54
52	Marshall	49
53	UAB	52
54	SMU	57
55	Central Michigan	60
56	Mississippi State	48
57	UCLA	56
58	Louisville	53
59	Miami, OH	70
60	Washington State	64
61	Wyoming	74
62	Utah State	59
63	FSU	58	23
64	FAU	69
65	West Virginia	61
66	Nevada	76
67	TCU	62
68	Purdue	68
69	Arkansas	63	20
70	Middle Tenn	84
71	Arizona State	65
72	Missouri	66
73	Navy	77
74	Boston College	67
75	California	79
76	Georgia State	80
77	Oregon State	71
78	Tulsa	75
79	Buffalo	87
80	Georgia Southern	94
81	Kent State	93
82	Syracuse	81
83	Virginia	82
84	Troy	95
85	Virginia Tech	78
86	La Tech	88
87	South Carolina	73
88	Illinois	97
89	San Jose State	102
90	Eastern Michigan	100
91	Stanford	72
92	Indiana	86
93	North Texas	92
94	Maryland	83
95	Texas Tech	90
96	East Carolina	85
97	Ball State	101
98	Tulane	89
99	Ohio	98
100	Northern Illinois	96
101	South Alabama	106
102	Northwestern	91
103	Arkansas State	103
104	Hawai'i	107
105	Colorado	104
106	Rutgers	105
107	ODU	108
108	Southern Miss	110
109	UTEP	114
110	Charlotte	111
111	Nebraska	99
112	James Madison	123
113	ULM	117
114	Colorado State	109
115	New Mexico	121
116	Temple	119
117	Kansas	122
118	Rice	118
119	USF	112
120	UNLV	126
121	Texas State	124
122	Duke	116
123	FIU	125
124	Bowling Green	120
125	Georgia Tech	113
126	Arizona	115
127	New Mexico State	129
128	Vanderbilt	127
129	Akron	128
130	UConn	130
131	UMass	131

Feel free to leave a comment. Check out my TWIF Notes from yesterday, and come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!