Paul's Picks Week 9
Welcome Back!
I had my first truly awful week, as I was only 29-24, or 54.7%, which makes me 387-153 overall, or 71.7%, a drop of 1.8% from last week. I think at this point, getting back to 75% is just a pipe dream. My goal from here on out is to try to hit 75% each week, which may get me back up to where I was a week ago by the end of the season (73.5%).
There are only 48 games this week, as a bunch of teams are idle (see Tuesday's blog as to how this could affect their standings in the Power Rankings).
On to the picks!
Thursday, October 27
Virginia Tech @ NC State- The Hokies lead the series 28-18-4, and have won the last 5, but those 5 games span from 2005-2020, so they haven't played much recently. In fact, they've only played 6 times since 1992, with a Wolfpack win in 2004 thrown in. These teams played frequently between 1900-1964, then not again until a 25-24 VT victory in the 1986 Peach Bowl, whereupon they played 4 straight years from 1989-92, with the Hokies holding the 2-1-1 edge. This year, the Wolfpack started strong, but then lost star QB Devin Leary for the season, and so it is uncertain how effective their offense will be in his absence, as they have scored only 28 points combined in their last 2 games. The Hokies have lost 4 straight, scoring more than 14 only once in that stretch, while allowing 33 or more 3 times. both teams were idle last week, so I'm going to assume NC State has a backup QB ready to play. NC State wins.
Louisiana @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles lead the series 39-11-1, and have won the last 9, including the most recent meeting in the 2016 New Orleans Bowl, but this is their 1st meeting as members of the same conference. However, USM is 20-1 in Hattiesburg. The Ragin' Cajuns won their 1st 3, then hit a 3-game lull, losing the last 2 by a combined 7 points, but after their off week, they've won 2 straight by a combined 30 points, and are 1-2 on the road. The Eagles lost their 1st 2, but have won 4 of 5 since, and are 2-1 at home. Both have wins against Arkansas St, their only common opponent, but USM has a win over Tulane and an OT loss to Liberty, 2 teams in or near the AP Top 25. A loss would almost eliminate the Eagles from SBC West contention, as they've already lost to Troy, who leads the division, but would also eliminate the Cajuns, as it would be their 3rd loss in the conference. Big stakes. USM wins a close one.
Utah @ Washington State- The Utes lead the series 10-9, wining the last 3, with all 3 played in Salt Lake City. In Pullman, the Utes are 4-3. One of Wazzu's wins is in the 1992 Copper Bowl, 31-28. Utah has 2 losses, to Florida in their opener and to UCLA, but has wins over USC and Oregon State. The Cougars have lost 3 of their last 4, to Oregon, USC, and Oregon State, with only the loss to the Ducks by less than 14 points, and their signature win is at Wisconsin. Utah is fighting for a berth in the Pac 12 Championship Game, so I don't think they'll stumble on the Palouse, even though both are coming out of their off week. Utes win.
Friday, October 28
East Carolina @ BYU- The series is tied at 1 win apiece, with each team winning at home in 2015 and 2017. The Pirates have 3 losses: by 1 to NC State, by 3 in OT to Navy, and by 15 to AP #23 ranked Tulane, and they are coming off of a big win over UCF. The Cougars are a disappointing 4-4, with their big win over Baylor, and blowout losses to Oregon, Arkansas, and Liberty, the latter 2 in the last 2 weeks of their 3-game losing streak. A win here would get ECU bowl eligible, while a win for BYU could get their season turned around. I'm going to go with momentum. ECU wins.
La Tech @ FIU- The Bulldogs lead the series 4-0, outscoring the Panthers by at least 10 points in each contest, but they've played sporadically in the 4 times they've met since 2013, with the most recent matchup being in 2019. LT is 2-5, with a win over Rice, but are 0-4 on the road. FIU is 3-4 with wins over NMSU and Charlotte, as they've won 2 of their last 4, but they're 1-2 at home (the win is over an FCS team). Both teams are 1-2 in CUSA play. Flip a coin. I guess I'll go with the home team. FIU wins.
Saturday, October 29
Ohio State @ Penn State- The Buckeyes lead the series 22-14, and have won the last 5, 9 of the last 10, and 16 of the last 20. Since the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten in 1993, OSU is 21-8 against the Lions. The other meetings were mostly dominated by Penn State- in 1912, 1956, 1963-64 were all won by the Lions; after the Bucks won 2 straight in 1975-76, PSU won in 1978 and in the 1980 Fiesta Bowl. This year, the Lions are 6-1/3-1 with a blowout loss to Michigan, but 2 big wins over Auburn and Minnesota, and they are 4-0 at home. The Buckeyes are 7-0/4-0, with their closest win by 11 points in their opener, and are only 1-0 on the road, as this is their 2nd of 4 road games. OSU wins.
TCU @ West Virginia- The Mountaineers lead the series 7-4, and have won the last 4, and 5 of the last 6, so this is a dangerous game for the Horned Frogs. The 1st meeting was a WVU win in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl. The good news for TCU is that WVU is only 3-2 in Morgantown. The Frogs are 7-0/4-0, and have been great at coming back from double digit deficits, but that's an unsustainable model. The Mountaineers are 3-4/1-4, but have split their last 2 Bg 12 games, including a win over Baylor. This could be a close game, but TCU wins.
Notre Dame @ Syracuse- The Fighting Irish lead the series 7-3, and have won the last 4, and they are 5-2 in games played this century, but are also 2-1 in games played in 1914, 1961, and 1963. In games played in Syracuse, the Irish are 2-1, including that 1912 game. The Orange suffered their 1st loss last week to Clemson, but have close wins over Purdue and Virginia. The Irish are only 4-3, and have won 4 of their last 5, but their loss was to a middling Stanford. This will be yet another close game, but the Orange will flip the script. Syracuse wins.
Arkansas @ Auburn- The Tigers lead the series 19-11-1, and have won the last 6, and 8 of the last 9, and their 1st win was in their 1st meeting in the 1984 Liberty Bowl. The Razorbacks are 4-3/1-3, but have lost 3 of their last 4. The Plainsmen are 3-4/1-3, and have lost their last 3. Both teams were off last week. The War Eagles are 3-2 at home and the Hogs are 1-1 on the road (and 0-1 at a neutral site). Gosh, there sure are a lot of games that could be tossups this week! Arkansas wins.
Oklahoma @ Iowa State- The Sooners lead the series 78-7-2, and have won 4 of the last 5, including the 2020 Big 12 Championship Game. Since the series started in 1928 with ISU winning 13-0, the Cyclones have only won back-to-back games once, in 1960-61, and have had 3 long winless stretches: 0-27-1 from 1932-59, 0-27-1 from 1962-89, and 0-18 from 1990-2016, but they are 2-2 in the last 4 regular season matchups. OU is 4-3/1-3, winning last week to break a 3-game losing streak. ISU is 3-4/0-4 and on a current 4-game losing streak, but the 4 losses are by a combined 14 points, and this is the 1st time in history the Cyclones have lost 4 straight games by 7 points or less. Both teams were idle last week, but it's ISU's turn to break their losing streak. Cyclones win.
Boston College @ UConn- The Huskies are straining to get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but beating a P5 team this early in their rebuild is a tall ask, though they do have wins over an MWC team and one from CUSA. At 3-5, they would need to either win this one or beat Liberty in 2 weeks to have any hope of getting there, but they have won 2 of their last 3. The Eagles are 2-5, with their only FBS win being over Louisville, as they are 0-3 on the road. With UConn 2-1 at home, and coming out of an off week, I'm really tempted to pick the Huskies, but BC is 12-0-2 in the series, 6-0 since 2000 (they were 6-0-2 between 1908 and 1928). Eagles win.
Georgia Tech @ FSU- The Seminoles lead the series 14-11-1, but surprisingly, the Yellow Jackets have won 4 of the last 6, with the 2 losses coming in the 2012 and 2014 ACC Championship Games. Before then, the Jackets went 7-0-1 between 1952-1975, followed by FSU winning 12 straight from 1992-2003.This year, FSU is 4-3/2-3 and on a 3-game losing streak, but they were idle last week. GT is 3-4/2-2, but are 2-1 under interim HC Brent Key. FSU wins in Tallahassee for the 1st time since 2003.
USF @ Houston- The Cougars lead the series 6-2, having won the last 6. UH had high expectations this year, but are only 4-3/2-1. The Bulls are 1-6/0-3, with no wins over an FBS team, but have played both Florida and Cincinnati close, losing by a combined 7 points. Though USF was idle last week, Houston will win this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bulls kept this close, or even pull off the upset.
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan- The Rockets lead the series 36-13, but they've split the last 4, with the Eagles winning 52-49 last year. Toledo seemed to be rolling along until they ran into Buffalo last week, and now they are 5-3/3-1. The Eagles are 5-3/2-2, and have won 3 of their last 4, with a loss to NIU in that span. Their other MAC loss was also to Buffalo. The Rockets have beaten NIU. If Toledo wins, they would remain the only team with one loss in the MAC West. If EMU wins, every team in the division would have at least 2 losses, but they would have beaten all of the other teams they would be tied with- Toledo, WMU, and Ball State (pending their results). It seems every year that EMU always has a chance to be there at the end, but can never win the key game(s). Toledo wins. But don't trust me. I was 1-5 in MAC games last week...
Miami, Oh @ Akron- The Redhawks haven't been very good this year, but somehow have wins over Northwestern and Kent State. At 3-5/1-3, they are pretty much out of the MAC East race. The Zips, however, are just terrible. At 1-7/0-4, they have no wins against FBS teams, and have lost 13 straight to FBS foes. But 3 of their last 4 losses were by 7 points or less, so at least they're in games. Miami leads the series 21-9-1, and has won the last 5, but the Zips won 4 straight before then. Redhawks win.
Miami, Fl @ Virginia- The Hurricanes lead the series 11-8, and have won 5 of the last 7, but the Cavaliers have won 2 of the last 4, and won 30-28 last year. Miami is 3-4/1-2, and have lost 3 of their last 4, including blowout losses to MTSU and Duke, both at home. UVA is 3-4/1-3, but broke a 3-game losing streak with a win over GT last Thursday. The Cavs are 5-3 in the series in Charlottesville, and are 2-1 at home this season, while the Canes are 1-1 on the road, but 1-0 in the state of Virginia. Wahoos win a close one.
Charlotte @ Rice- The Owls lead the series 2-1, but the 49ers won 31-24 in OT last year. This year, Rice is 4-3/2-1, and absolutely must win this game to have any real chance at a bowl game, as their remaining 4 games are against the top 4 teams in CUSA. Charlotte is 1-7/0-4, and except for a win over Ga State and a 6-point loss to UTEP, they have been blown out in every game, and fired HC Will Healy on Sunday. They may get a bump from having an interim, as we've seen happen with other teams, but the Owls are 3-0 at home this season. Rice wins.
Rutgers @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers started the season 4-0, but have lost their last 3, all by double-digits, and each by an increasing amount. The Scarlet Knights have followed a similar trajectory, starting 3-0, then losing 3 straight, but after their off week, they were able to defeat Indiana. Minnesota leads the series 2-0, winning in 2016 and in '19. Gophers win to break their losing streak.
ODU @ Georgia State- It looks like the Panthers just aren't going to make their 4th straight bowl, nor will they repeat last year's 8-5 season, unless they win the rest of their games and their bowl, as they are currently 2-5/1-2. Last year they started 1-4, then went 6-1, and their remaining schedule is again easier than the 1st half, but, this year, there are no easy wins in the SBC, just like in the Big 12. GSU is only 1-3 at home, but the Monarchs are only 1-2 on the road. ODU has a win over CCU and a loss to Ga Southern; GSU has the opposite. The Monarchs lead the series 3-0, with 2 wins in Atlanta, but those wins were from 2010-2012, before both teams were FBS programs. I'm going with the home team. GSU wins.
Florida vs Georgia (Jacksonville)- The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, or WLOCP, as it is affectionately known (the schools don't want you to call it that!), has been played in Jacksonville every year since 1933, except for 1994 and 1995, when the stadium was being renovated. The Dawgs hold the 53-44-2 series edge, but in Jacksonville, it's 47-41-1 in UGA's favor. They also played in Tampa in 1919 (UGA won), and in 1928 and 1930 in Savannah (UF 1-0-1). In Athens, UGA is 3-1, and in Gainesville, the Gators are 1-2. UGA's longest win streak in the series is 7 games, from 1941-48, and UF's longest is also 7, from 1990-96. The Bulldogs have won 3 of the last 4, including last year, but it's been 4-4 over the last 8, and 7-7 over the last 14, the definition of a true rivalry! This year, the Gators have been a bit inconsistent at 4-3/1-3, with wins over Utah and Missouri, but losses to Kentucky, Tennessee (by 5), and LSU. The Dawgs are 7-0/4-0, but have that narrow, come from behind win over Missouri. As usual, both teams were idle last week. I think this game will be much like last year's game, with the Gators hanging close for a while, and then the Dawgs pulling away. Georgia wins.
Oregon @ California- The Golden Bears lead the series 42-41-2, mainly on the strength of dominating from 1899-1982, with a 30-17-2 record during that time. From 1983-93, it was 5-5, but since 1994, the Ducks have a commanding 19-6 lead, including 4 of the last 5. Oregon has been on a tear since losing their opener to Georgia, scoring at least 41 points in every game. Cal is 3-4/1-3, and while their defense has held every opponent to 28 points or less, they have only scored over 21 points once against an FBS foe. Ducks win.
Wake Forest @ Louisville- The Demon Deacons must win to keep their slim hopes of repeating as ACC Atlantic Champions alive. They have scored at least 31 points in every game, and held 5 of 7 opponents to 25 points or less as they are 6-1/2-1. The Cardinals seem to have emerged from their early season funk, as they have won 3 of their last 4, and are now 4-3/2-3, with their defense holding their last 2 foes to 17 points or less. Louisville leads the series 6-3, and has won 2 of the last 3, but the Deacons won last year, and have won 3 of the last 5. Louisville won the 1st matchup in the 2007 Orange Bowl, and is 3-1 in games played in Louisville. This could be a close game, but WF will prevail.
Illinois @ Nebraska- The Big Ten West is there for the taking, as long as the Illini don't stumble down the stretch. They have already defeated the 3 teams expected to be at the top of the division, though those 3- Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota- have mostly been disappointing this year. And somehow, the Cornhuskers are still in the race at 3-4/2-2, as they are 2-2 under interim HC Mickey Joseph. Both teams were idle last week, and Nebraska is 2-2 at home while Illinois, 6-1/3-1, is 1-1 on the road. The Huskers lead the series 13-5-1, and have won 5 of the last 6, including last year, but much of this series was played long before Nebraska joined the Big Ten, as 10 meetings were between 1892 and 1986. This seems to be the year of the Fighting Illini, so if they can avoid turnovers, they should win.
Cincinnati @ UCF- This is the game everyone who follows the AAC had been waiting for. Until the Bearcats barely escaped with wins in their last 3 games and the Knights got routed by ECU last week. But despite all that, it's still a big game, as Cincy is 6-1/3-0 and one of 2 unbeaten teams in the AAC, and UCF is 5-2/2-1 and one of 2 teams with just 1 loss. The Bearcats lead the series 4-3, as they've won the last 3, but are only 1-2 in Orlando. Cincy will win here, but they will probably get a big lead then have to hold off as UCF stages a comeback.
Northwestern @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes lead the series 52-28-3, and have won 2 of the last 3, including last year, but the Wildcats have won 4 of the last 6, and the last 3 played in Iowa City. NW scored 31 points against Nebraska in their opener, and haven't scored more than 24 since, being held to 14 or less in 3 games, as they are 1-6/1-3. Even worse, they have allowed 28 or more in all but 2 games. Iowa is 3-4/1-3, and has scored 27 twice, but in their other 5 games, has scored 14 or less, 4 times failing to break 10 points. But the Hawkeyes have held 5 of their 7 opponents to 10 points or less. So neither team can score, but only one has a defense. Hawkeyes win, but expect the score to be something like 6-3...or 3-0.
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State- The Cowboys lead the series 42-26, and have won the last 3, and 5 of the last 7, and 2 of the last 3 played in Manhattan. With both teams at 3-1 in the Big 12, this is basically a game to see who gets to stay in 2nd place behind TCU- who has already beaten both teams- and conversely who has the inside track for the 2nd spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats are averaging 29 ppg in conference games, while allowing 27.25. For OSU it's 39.5-33.25, which proves... not much. Go with my gut. Cowboys win a close one.
New Mexico State @ UMass- Both of these teams were off last week, NMSU unexpectedly so when their game at SJSU was postponed. The Aggies are 2-5 with wins over Hawaii and New Mexico, both at home. The Minutemen are 1-6 with a win over an FCS squad. NMSU won last year in their only other meeting, in Las Cruces, so this is the return engagement in Amherst. UMass hasn't scored more than 24 points in any game all year while the Aggies have actually held their last 3 opponents to 26 or less, and 5 of 7 overall to that number or less. Unfortunately, NMSU has only scored more than 21 once, but the Minutemen have only held 2 of 7 foes to under 28 points, allowing 3 to score 42+. If the Aggies can score 24 or more, they should win. NMSU wins.
Temple @ Navy- This series is tied at 8 wins apiece, with the Midshipmen winning the last 2, but the Owls winning the 3 before that, including the 2016 AAC Championship Game. Temple is 2-5/0-3, and 0-3 on the road, but has won 3 of the last 4 played in Annapolis. Navy is 2-5/2-3 and 1-3 at home. Go with the home team. Navy wins.
SMU @ Tulsa- The Mustangs lead the series 15-13, but the Golden Hurricane have won the last 2, and 6 of the last 8. Both teams are 3-4/1-2, with Tulsa's win over Temple and SMU's over Navy. Both are 1-3 in their last 4 games, both played Cincinnati close, both played a P5 team close (2 for SMU), but Tulsa was routed by Navy. SMU wins, just because.
Robert Morris @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers should easily defeat the Colonials in this 1st ever meeting.
North Texas @ WKU- These 2 teams are tied for 2nd in CUSA at 3-1, so this is basically an elimination game for a CUSA Championship Game berth. The Mean Green are 4-4 overall, and 1-3 on the road with a win over UTEP and losses to UNLV. Memphis, and UTSA last week. The Hilltoppers are 5-3 and 3-1 at home, with wins over an FCS team, FIU, and UAB last week, and a loss to Troy. Their other losses were to Indiana in OT and to UTSA. The series is tied 4-4, with WKU winning the last 4. WKU wins.
Missouri @ South Carolina- The Tigers lead the series 7-5, but it's 5-5 since they joined the SEC in 2012. Mizzou won the 1st meeting in 1979 and in the 2005 Independence Bowl, and they've won the last 3, but the last 2 wins were each by single digits. This year, the Gamecocks are 5-2/2-2 and on a 4-game winning streak, and are 4-1 at home. The Tigers are 3-4/1-3, but their 3 SEC losses were to Auburn, Georgia, and Florida by a combined 14 points, and 2 of those were on the road, as they are 0-3 on the road. SC wins, but it'll be close.
South Alabama @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves lead the series 6-4, but the Jaguars have won the last 3, and 4 of the last 5. This year, USA is 5-2/2-1, with a 1-point loss to UCLA on the road and a 10-6 home loss to Troy last week. ASU is 2-6/1-4, and have lost their last 3 games. Jaguars win.
USC @ Arizona- The Trojans have dominated this series, leading 36-9. USC has won the last 9, and 18 of the last 20 on the field, which includes 1 vacated win. The Trojans, 6-1/4-1, suffered their 1st loss last game, but were off last week. The Wildcats, 3-4/1-3, have lost 2 straight and were also idle last week. USC wins big.
Kentucky @ Tennessee- The Volunteers lead this series 82-26-9, and as you might expect, have had several long periods of dominance. From 1893-1919, it was 8-5-2 in UK's favor; from 1920-1952, it was 24-3-6 UT (so many ties...); from 1953-1964 it was 8-3-1 UK; from 1965-present it's been 49-7 UT, with a 26 year winning streak from 1985-2010. This year, the Vols are on a roll at 7-0/3-0, and have scored at least 34 points in every game, but have allowed 27 or more in half of their 6 FBS games. The Wildcats are 5-2/2-2, with losses at Ole Miss and to SC at home, but they have yet to allow more than 24 points in any game. Factors in UK's favor include the fact that they were idle last week, their RB and QB appear to be healthy and in shape (finally), and they may catch Tennessee looking ahead to their game at Georgia next week. I expect this game could be close, at least for a while, but I think the UT offense is too much. But like most games, turnovers and special teams play could be the difference. Tennessee wins.
Colorado State @ Boise State- The Broncos had a rough start to their season, but have won their last 3 and now sport a 5-2/4-0 record, including 3-0 at home. The Rams are 2-5/2-1, but are 1-2 on the road. BSU leads the series 11-0, and I see no reason for that to change. Broncos win.
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall- The Chanticleers had been living life on the edge, winning close game after close game, but finally got blown out by ODU at home. The Thundering Herd seemed to collapse after beating Notre Dame, but then handed JMU their 2nd consecutive loss. This is the 1st ever meeting between these 2, and CCU is coming out of their off week. Chants win.
UAB @ FAU- The Owls lead the series 5-3, including the 2019 CUSA Championship Game, but the Blazers have won 2 of the last 3. The only other time this game has been played in Boca Raton was in the aforementioned CUSACG. FAU is 3-5/2-2, with wins over Rice and Charlotte, and losses to UNT and UTEP, and they are 3-1 at home. UAB is 4-3/2-2 with wins over MTSU and Charlotte, and losses to Rice and WKU, and are 0-3 on the road. Everything points against it, but I'm going with UAB.
Michigan State @ Michigan- The Wolverines lead the series 71-38-5, but the Spartans have won the last 2, and 10 of the last 14. But this year, MSU is 3-4/1-3, with their lone conference win over Wisconsin in OT, and losses to Minnesota, Maryland, and Ohio State, each by at least 14 points. UM is 7-0/4-0, and hasn't really been challenged much, winning 5 of 7 games by at least 21 points, only allowing 1 opponent to score more than 17 while scoring at least 31 in 6 of 7 games. MSU has won 5 of the last 7 played in Ann Arbor, but Michigan wins this one easily.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M- The Aggies lead the series 9-2, though that includes 2 games vacated by the Rebels, as it has been 9-4 in games played on the field. Ole Miss won last year, 29-19, and TAMU won the 4 games played before they joined the SEC in 2012: in 1911, 1914, 1975, and 1980. This year, the Rebels are 7-1/3-1, having suffered their 1st loss last week at LSU, as they were held to their lowest point total of the season while allowing their most. The Aggies are a very disappointing 3-4/1-3, and have lost 3 straight as their offense has yet to generate more than 24 points against an FBS foe, and both games they scored 24, they lost. This will probably be a close, low scoring game, but I think Ole Miss will pull this one out, as long as they limit turnovers.
Arizona State @ Colorado- Will anybody be watching this game? The Sun Devils lead the series 9-3, and won last year, but the Buffaloes have won 2 of the last 3. ASU is 2-5/1-3, and 0-3 on the road, their FBS win being over Washington. The Buffs are 1-6/1-3, and 1-2 at home, with their win over Cal in OT. Neither team has much of an offense or a defense. The average score for ASU in FBS games is 22.5-32.2; for CU it's 13.4-38.7. Sun Devils win.
Baylor @ Texas Tech- The Bears lead the series 40-39-1, and have won 3 of the last 4, including last year, but lost the last time they played in Lubbock. Both teams are 4-3/2-2. Baylor has wins over Iowa State and Kansas, and losses to Oklahoma State and WVU. The Red Raiders have wins over Texas and WVU and losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The Bears are 1-2 on the road and TTU is 4-0 at home. Red Raiders win.
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels lead the series 10-5, but the Panthers have won the last 2, and also won the 2009 Car Care Bowl played in Charlotte. However, the Panthers have never won in Chapel Hill, as UNC is 6-0 there. Pitt is 4-3/1-2 with losses in 2 of their last 3 games to Ga Tech and Louisville. UNC is 6-1/3-0, has scored 35+ in 5 out of 7 games, and is coming out of their off week. Tar Heels win easily.
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP- When the Blue Raiders routed Miami, Fl to move their record to 3-1, it looked like they might be one of the teams to beat in CUSA, but they have since lost 3 straight and are 3-4/0-3, and 2-2 on the road. The Miners, 4-4/2-2, have had an up and down season, but have won 3 of their last 4 and are 3-1 at home, including a win over Boise State. MTSU is coming out of their off week, and leads the series 3-1, but they haven't played since 2018. UTEP wins.
Stanford @ UCLA- The Bruins lead the series 47-43-3, and have won 2 of the last 3, including last year, but the Cardinal won 11 straight before then, including the 2012 Pac 12 Championship Game. UCLA hasn't won in Pasadena since 2008, losing the last 6 played there. The Bruins are 6-1/3-1 having just suffered their 1st loss to Oregon last week, and they have scored at least 30 points in every game, but they've allowed 32 or more in each of their last 3 games. The Cardinal are 3-4/1-4 and on a 2-game winning streak, and while they haven't scored more than 28 against any FBS opponent, they've held their last 2 foes to 14 points each. UCLA wins.
San Diego State @ Fresno State- The Aztecs lead the series 30-26-4, but the Bulldogs have won 3 of the last 4, including 30-20 last year. They have met 9 times in the Aztec Bowl, each time in October or November, with FSU holding a 5-3-1 edge. I have no idea what the Aztec Bowl was, and why it would be played when it was, and Google was no help at all, and to be honest, I just wasn't interested enough to spend that much time going down that particular rabbit hole. Anyway, the Bulldogs are 3-4/2-1 with wins over SJSU and UNM, and a loss to Boise State, and they are 2-1 at home. SDSU is 4-3/2-1, with wins over Hawaii and Nevada, and a loss to Boise State, and they are 1-2 on the road. I have no idea who to pick, as both have won their last 2 games. Go with the home team. Fresno State wins.
Nevada @ San Jose State- The Wolf Pack lead the series 23-10-2, and have won 16 of the last 19, including last year, but have lost 2 of the last 3 played in San Jose. The Spartans are 4-2/2-1 with wins over Wyoming and UNLV and a loss to Fresno St, and they had an unexpected off week last week when they postponed their game with NMSU after the death of a team member. SJSU is 3-0 at home. The Wolf Pack is 2-6/0-4, and have lost 6 straight, all but 1 by at least 14 points, and they are 1-3 on the road. SJSU wins.
Wyoming @ Hawaii-The Cowboys lead the series 15-11, but the Rainbow Warriors have won 3 of the last 5, including last year, and have won the last 2 in Honolulu, with Wyoming's last win there in 1997. These teams played every year from 1978-1997, then not again until 2013. The Cowboys are 5-3/3-1, with wins over Air Force, UNM, and USU, and a loss to SJSU, and they have won their last 2 and are 1-2 on the road. Hawaii is 2-6/1-2, with a win over Nevada and losses to SDSU and CSU, and they're 2-2 at home. Wyoming appears to be the biggest threat to Boise State in the MWC Mountain Division, but for that to come to fruition, they have to win games like this, which they haven't always done in the past. Wyoming wins, he said with trepidation.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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