Odds and Ends 11-23-22

Welcome Back!

The 4th CFP rankings arrived last night, and the top 4 remained unchanged. LSU moved up to #5, but they'll be irrelevant if they lose to either Texas A&M or to UGA in the SECCG. USC at #6 and Clemson at #8 are the only true remaining "threats" to move into the top 4 outside of LSU. Alabama at #7, and everyone ranked #9 or below is eliminated, in my opinion, unless utter chaos ensues this weekend and during the Championship Game weekend. Tulane, Cincinnati, and UCF are the highest ranking G5 teams, in that order, and that will all be sorted out over the next 2 weekends, but I guess it's still possible for CCU or UTSA to slip into that NY6 slot, but it would take chaos in the AAC for that to happen, as in Houston getting into and winning the AAC Championship Game. I don't really have any quibbles with the CFP rankings, but I'm curious to see where they place the Ohio State-Michigan loser (and winner) next week, and where other teams end up, should upsets occur. 

Anyway, here are my normal features for this week.

Enjoy!

Inter-conference results 

There are a still a few non-conference games to play.  Look for this again at or near the end of the season, when I'll devote one whole blog to just this section.

I will do the same on the "Which Conference is Best" and Which Division is Best" sections as well.

Intra-conference results

Here is how the divisions are stacking up against each other within each conference:

The SEC West is 6-7 against the SEC East

The Big Ten East is 13-7 against the Big Ten West

The ACC Atlantic is 8-4 against the ACC Coastal

The MWC Mountain is 10-6 against the MWC West

The SBC East is 7-6 against the SBC West

The MAC East is 9-7 against the MAC West

The SEC East was 0-0 against the West this week; the Big Ten East was 1-0 against the West; the ACC Atlantic was 1-0 against the Coastal; the MWC Mountain was 2-1 against the West; the SBC West was 0-0 against the East; and the MAC West was 1-2 against the East. Only a few crossover games this week.

Undefeated/Winless teams

The following teams are currently undefeated (listed alphabetically):

Georgia

Michigan

Ohio State

TCU

There are still 4 (out of 131) undefeated teams in FBS, no change from last week. However, since Michigan plays Ohio State this week, the maximum we can end with is 3. There are NO winless teams.

Here are the undefeated teams by conference:

Big Ten- 2

SEC -1

Big 12 -1

ACC- 0

Pac 12 -0

SBC- 0

AAC- 0

CUSA- 0

Ind -0

MAC- 0

MWC- 0

In addition, there are 3 teams with only 1 win, but no wins over an FBS opponent. Those teams are:

Akron

UMass

USF

Bowl eligible/eliminated 

The following teams have already earned their 6th win, and thus are bowl eligible. Three teams, Army, Appalachian State, and Marshall, play 2 FCS teams, so they will need 7 wins to qualify. As a transitional team, James Madison is ineligible for a bowl no matter how many games it wins. Since there are 41 bowl games, 82 teams will be needed. Teams that finish 5-7 may fill some of those slots if enough teams don't qualify with 6 wins. So far, we have 73 teams eligible. The teams are listed alphabetically.

Air Force

Alabama

Arkansas

Baylor

Boise State

Bowling Green

BYU

Cincinnati

Clemson

Coastal Carolina

Duke

East Carolina

Eastern Michigan

Florida

Fresno State

FSU

Georgia

Houston

Illinois

Iowa

Kansas

Kansas State

Kentucky

Liberty

Louisville

LSU

Marshall

Maryland

Memphis

Michigan

Middle Tennessee

Minnesota

Mississippi State

NC State

North Carolina

North Texas

Notre Dame

Ohio

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Ole Miss

Oregon

Oregon State

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Purdue

San Diego State

San Jose State

SMU

South Alabama

South Carolina

Syracuse

TCU

Tennessee

Texas

Texas Tech

Toledo

Troy

Tulane

UCF

UCLA

UConn

USC

Utah

Utah State

UTSA

Wake Forest

Washington

Washington State

Wisconsin

WKU

Wyoming

Broken down by conference:

SEC- 10- 71.4% of members

ACC- 9- 64.3%

Big Ten- 9-64.3%

Big 12- 80%

Pac 12- 7- 58.3%

AAC- 7- 63.6%

MWC- 7- 58.3%

SBC- 4- 30.8%

CUSA- 4- 36.4%

MAC- 4- 33.3%

Independents-4- 57.1%

The following teams have 7 losses, and therefore are eliminated from participating in a bowl, unless there are not enough 6-win teams available. It's possible some 5-7 teams may need to be chosen.

Akron

Arizona

Arizona State

Arkansas State

Army 

Boston College

California

Central Michigan

Charlotte

Colorado

Colorado State

FIU

Georgia State

Hawaii

Indiana

Iowa State

Kent State

La Tech

Navy

Nebraska

Nevada

New Mexico

Northern Illinois

Northwestern

ODU

Rutgers

Stanford

Temple

Texas A&M

Texas State

Tulsa

OLM

UMass

UNLV

USF

Virginia

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Western Michigan

NOTE: Army has only 6 losses, but since they have 2 wins over FCS teams, needed 7 wins to become bowl eligible.

In case you are interested, here are the number of teams with each amount of wins:

11 wins- 4 teams 3.1%

10 wins- 2 teams 1.5%

9 wins- 13 teams 9.9%

8 wins- 12 teams 9.2%

7 wins- 23 teams 17.6%

6 wins- 21 teams 16.0%

5 wins- 16 teams 12.2%

4 wins- 19 teams 14.5%

3 wins- 12 teams 9.2%

2 wins- 4 teams 3.1%

1 win- 5 teams 3.8%

0 wins- 0 teams 0%

Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding to nearest tenth.

Here are the amount of teams with each amount of losses:

0 losses- 4 teams 3.1%

1 loss- 3 teams 2.3%

2 losses- 12 teams 9.2%

3 losses- 13 teams 9.9%

4 losses- 22 teams 16.8%

5 losses- 21 teams 16.0%

6 losses- 18 teams 13.7%

7 losses- 18 teams 13.7%

8 losses- 9 teams 6.9%

9 losses- 7 teams 5.3%

10 losses- 4 teams 3.1%

Here are the teams that can still achieve bowl eligibility, and their chances to do so, listed alphabetically, of course. There are still 17 teams that can reach eligibility, and 9 slots available. 

Team: Appalachian State

Record: 6-5

Remaining Schedule: @Ga Southern

Bowl Chance: Very Good (needs 7 wins due to playing 2 FCS teams)

Team: Auburn

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @Alabama

Bowl Chance: Poor

Team: Ball St

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @Miami

Bowl Chance: Fair

Team: Buffalo

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Kent St, Akron (PPD game)

Bowl Chance: Good (Excellent if both games are played)

Team: FAU

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: WKU

Bowl Chance: Poor

Team: Georgia Southern

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: App St

Bowl Chance: Fair

Team: Georgia Tech

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @Georgia

Bowl Chance: Poor

Team: James Madison

Record: 7-3

Remaining Schedule: Ga St, CCU

Bowl Chance: INELIGIBLE

Team: Louisiana

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @Texas St

Bowl Chance: Good

Team: Miami, Fl

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: Pitt

Bowl Chance: Fair

Team: Miami, Oh

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: Ball St

Bowl Chance: Good

Team: Michigan State

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @Penn St

Bowl Chance: Poor

Team: Missouri

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: Arkansas

Bowl Chance: Fair

Team: New Mexico State

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: @Liberty, San Jose St (PPD game)

Bowl Chance: Fair

Team: Rice

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @N Texas

Bowl Chance: Fair

Team: Southern Miss

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @ULM

Bowl Chance: Very Good

Team: UAB

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @La Tech

Bowl Chance: Very Good

Team: UTEP

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: @UTSA

Bowl Chance: Poor

Team: Vanderbilt

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: Tennessee

Bowl Chance: Fair

Conference Update

Here is how the conference races are shaking out.

AAC

Clinched- None

The winner of the Cincinnati-Tulane game is in the AACCG, and will host

UCF is in if it wins over USF 

Cincinnati still gets in even if it loses to Tulane, if UCF loses

Tulane also gets in with a loss if UCF loses 

In other words, if UCF loses, there will be an immediate rematch between Cincinnati and Tulane, with the location decided by the winner of this game. 

However, Houston is a strange wildcard, as in if they defeat Tulsa on Friday, they could end up in a 3-way tie. If the tie is with UCF and Tulane, I think UCF would be the representative, as it beat Tulane, and Tulane beat Houston, but I'm not sure, since UCF and Houston didn't play. If the 3-way is with Cincinnati and UCF, I still think it's UCF, since they defeated the Bearcats, but Houston didn't play either team, so I'm not sure how that plays out. If UCF loses, Houston would be in a tie with the Cincy-Tulane loser; if it's Tulane, the Green Wave would go to the CG due to it's win over Houston on Sep 30. If it's Cincinnati? I have no idea because, again, they din't play in the regular season. To me, this is the problem with not having divisions (though I fully understand the problems WITH divisions- see Big Ten West). 

NOTE: Upon further research, it appears that in the result of a 3-way tie, the AAC will choose the highest ranked team in the CFP. If none of the teams are ranked, they would use a computer rating. The computer rating would be an average from the Anderson & Hester Rankings, the Billingsley Report, the Colley Matrix and the Wolfe ratings. So it's possible we may not know the 2nd entry into the AACCG until after the 5th CFP rankings are revealed next Tuesday.

Eliminated- SMU, ECU, Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, Temple, USF

ACC

Atlantic Division

Clinched- Clemson

Eliminated- Syracuse, NC State, Wake Forest, FSU, Louisville, Boston College

Coastal Division

Clinched- North Carolina

Eliminated- Duke, Ga Tech, Pitt, Miami, Va Tech, Virginia

Big 12

Clinched- TCU

Kansas State clinches with a win over Kansas or a Texas loss to Baylor

Texas clinches with a win over Baylor and a KSU loss to Kansas

Eliminated- Baylor, OSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, WVU, ISU

Big Ten

East Division

Clinched- None

The winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game will win the division

Eliminated- Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, MSU

West Division

Clinched- None

Iowa clinches with a win over Nebraska

Purdue clinches with a win over Indiana and an Iowa loss

A 3-way tie can be created if Illinois beats Northwestern, and both Iowa and Purdue lose

A 3-way tie can be created if Wisconsin beats Minnesota and Iowa and Purdue both lose

A 4-way tie will be created if Illinois and Wisconsin both win, and Iowa and Purdue both lose

A 3-way or 4-way tie including Illinois would go to the Fighting Illini because of their superior record within the division. A 3-way tie without Illinois would have to go beyond that, as all the participants would have the same division record. They would also all be 7-5 overall. I don't know what the next tiebreaker is, as I'm not well versed in the intricacies of the Big Ten bylaws. However, I expect either Iowa or Purdue to win their game making all tiebreakers moot. Minnesota would not win any tiebreakers, and thus are eliminated.

Eliminated- Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern

CUSA

Clinched- UTSA

North Texas will clinch a spot if they defeat Rice

WKU clinches a spot with a win over FAU and a loss by North Texas

NOTE: If both UNT and WKU lose, there would be a 3-way tie with FAU. Since UNT defeated both in the regular season, UNT would win the spot in the CUSACG.

Eliminated- FAU, Rice, UAB, FIU, La Tech, UTEP, MTSU, Charlotte

MAC

East Division

Clinched- Ohio

NOTE: This was the situation before the games last night

Because of the postponed game between Buffalo and Akron, this isn't as cut and dried as I thought. Since Buffalo may have one less game played than Ohio and Bowling Green, a different tiebreaker must be used. Here are the scenarios:

Ohio wins the division if it beats BGSU

BGSU wins if it beats Ohio and Buffalo loses to Kent State

Buffalo wins if it beats Kent St and Ohio loses to BGSU, because Ohio and BGSU both lost to Kent St

Eliminated- Kent State, Miami, Akron

West Division

Clinched- Toledo

Eliminated- WMU, EMU, Ball State, CMU, NIU

MWC

Mountain Division

Clinched- Boise State

Eliminated- Wyoming, Utah State, Air Force, Colo State, New Mexico

West Division

Clinched- Fresno State

Eliminated- SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Hawaii, Nevada

PAC 12

Clinched- USC

Oregon will clinch a spot with a win over Oregon State or losses by both Washington and Utah

Washington will clinch with a win over Washington State and an Oregon loss

Utah will clinch if it beats Colorado and both Oregon and Washington lose

Eliminated- UCLA, Oregon St, Washington St, Arizona St, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Stanford

SEC

East Division

Clinched- Georgia

Eliminated- Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Florida, Vandy

West Division

Clinched- LSU

Eliminated- Alabama, Ole Miss, Miss State, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M

Sun Belt

East Division

Clinched- Coastal Carolina

Eliminated- Ga State, JMU (Not eligible), Ga Southern, App State, Marshall, ODU

West Division

Clinched- None

Troy will clinch with a win over Arkansas State

South Alabama can clinch with a win over ODU and a Troy loss

Eliminated- Southern Miss, ULM, Louisiana, Texas St, Ark St

Updates on my playoff picks 

Georgia topped Kentucky this week, but it wasn't easy. Alabama beat an FCS team, but for all intents and purposes, seems to be eliminated from the CFP. Ohio State still looks like a strong choice, as they survived Maryland. Utah has been eliminated with their 3rd loss, and has been reduced to the role of spoiler. Of those I didn't pick, TCU, Michigan, and USC seem to be the best bets. Clemson is still in play, but I'm not sure their resume is strong enough. I guess LSU is also a possibility, depending on how the rest of the season plays out, with LSU possibly being the 1st 2-loss team to make it in.

Games I'm Excited About

Mississippi State @ Ole Miss- Can the Rebels bounce back from their last 2 losses, or will those 2 losses turn into 3? Will the Bulldogs be able to pull off the upset on the road?

Tulane @ Cincinnati- Will the Green Wave be able to finish off their magical season? Or will the Bearcats have a chance to repeat as AAC champs?

Baylor @ Texas- Can the Longhorns keep their hopes of a Big 12 title alive? Can the Bears bounce back from their last second loss to TCU last week?

Nebraska @ Iowa- Will the Hawkeyes sew up the Big Ten West? Or will the Cornhuskers pull the upset and open the door for other teams?

Florida @ FSU- Will the Seminoles break their 3-game losing streak in this series and get to 9 regular season wins for the 1st time since 2016? Can the Gators pull the upset and redeem their season, or will they be the 1st Florida team to ever lose to their 4 main rivals (Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, and FSU) in the same year?

Georgia Tech @ Georgia- Can the Yellow Jackets pull the upset and get to bowl eligibility? Will the Bulldogs be able to complete back-to-back undefeated regular seasons for the 1st time in their history?

Michigan @ Ohio State- Will either team have their star RBs available, and if so, can they be effective? Can the Wolverines repeat as Big Ten East Champions? Or will the Buckeyes get revenge for their humiliation last year?

South Carolina @ Clemson- Can the Gamecocks build off of their win over Tennessee and pull the upset, knocking Clemson from the CFP? Will the Tigers be able to hold off SC and win an 8th straight game in the series?

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison- Can the Chanticleers keep JMU at bay and claim an undisputed SBC East Championship? Will the Dukes celebrate their move to FBS by tying for the division lead?

Auburn @ Alabama- Can the Tigers pull a huge upset and get to bowl eligibility? Will the Crimson Tide roll over the War Eagles?

Purdue @ Indiana- Will knowing the result of the Iowa-Nebraska game affect the Boilermakers at all? Can Indiana pull the upset and win the Old Oaken Bucket?

Iowa State @ TCU- Can the Horned Frogs finish off their 1st perfect regular season since 2010? Can the Cyclones knock TCU out of the CFP with the upset?

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt- After losing 26 consecutive SEC games, could the Commodores actually win 3 in a row and become bowl eligible? Will the Volunteers, like Ole Miss last week, let 1 loss turn into 2?

Notre Dame @ USC- Could the Fighting Irish knock the Trojans out of the CFP? Or will the Trojans keep their- and the entire Pac 12's- hopes alive with a victory?

There are so many more games I could have mentioned: The Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State, the Apple Cup between Washington and Washington State (these 2 games will decide who plays USC in the Pac 12 CG), NC State- UNC, ODU-South Alabama and Troy-Ark State (will decide SBC West), Rice-UNT (CUSA CG implications), Louisville-Kentucky, Illinois-Northwestern and Minnesota-Wisconsin (Big Ten West implications, should Iowa and Purdue falter), and Tulsa-Houston (AAC implications). Just so many important games this weekend!

Feel free to leave a comment. Check out yesterday's Power Rankings, and come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!