Odds and Ends 11-30-22
Welcome Back!
There were no real surprises in the CFP reveal last night. The top 4 were as expected, but I wouldn't have quibbled if Georgia and Michigan had been switched, or if TCU and USC had been. OSU at #5 seems right, and I'm ok with Alabama at 6, though I think Tennessee should be there due to the head-to-head result, and the fact that the Vols have actually beaten teams of consequence (Alabama and LSU), while the Tide has lost to both of the teams it played that ended up better than 8-4.
Anyway, here are my normal features for this week, plus the return of some old ones!
Enjoy!
Inter-conference results
It has been a while since I have presented these figures, and quite a bit has changed since then. Here is where each conference stands on out-of-conference games. These will be ranked according to win percentage. For these purposes, all Independents, even Notre Dame, are considered G5 teams.
Overall
1) SEC 49-7 .875
2) Big 12 25-5 .833
3) Big Ten 32-10 .762
4) Pac 12 26-10 .722
5) ACC 37-18 .672
6) SBC 31-23 .574
7) AAC 24-20 .545
8) Ind 31-33 .484
9) MWC 20-27 .426
10) CUSA 18-26 .409
11) MAC 18-30 .375
12) FCS 8-111 .067
The SEC was dominant in non-conference games, winning over 87%. Was this the result of playing lots of FCS teams and G5 teams? Let's find out, shall we?
Surprisingly, the Sun Belt had the best record of the G5 conferences, followed closely by the AAC.
The ACC was the worst of the P5 leagues, while the MAC was the worst overall.
Vs FBS Teams
1) SEC 35-7 .833
2) Big 12 17-5 .772
3) Big Ten 24-9 .727
4) Pac 12 16-10 .615
5) ACC 24-18 .571
6) AAC 15-19 .441
7) SBC 17-23 .425
8) Ind 24-33 .421
9) MWC 11-24 .314
10) CUSA 9-25 .265
11) MAC 8-28 .222
12) FCS 8-111 .067
The SEC leads again when you consider only FBS teams, though their winning percentage drops to "only" 83.3%. Consider that Nick Saban's career winning percentage is 80.4%, and you realize that the SEC as a conference is winning their non-conference FBS games at a better percentage than Nick Saban wins all his games!
Once again, the AAC and SBC lead the way among the G5 leagues.
And again, the ACC is the worst P5 conference, and the MAC is the worst overall.
Vs Power 5 Teams
1) Big 12 7-3 .700
2) SEC 10-5 .667
3) ACC 7-10 .412
4) Big Ten 4-6 .400
5) Ind 9-15 .375
6) Pac 12 2-6 .250
T7) AAC 3-13 .188
T7) SBC 3-13 .188
9) MAC 2-19 .095
10) CUSA 1-11 .083
11) MWC 1-15 .063
12) FCS 1-53 .019
The Big 12 leads here, but only played 10 games, to 15 for the SEC and 17 for the ACC. The Big Ten also played only 10 games.
The AAC and SBC continue to lead the G5 leagues.
The Pac 12 was the worst of the P5, even finishing below the Independents, while the MWC was the worst overall.
Vs G5 Teams
1) SEC 25-2 .926
2) Big Ten 20-3 .870
3) Big 12 10-2 .833
4) Pac 12 14-4 .778
5) ACC 17-8 .680
6) AAC 12-6 .667
7) SBC 14-10 .583
8) MWC 10-9 .526
9) Ind 15-18 .455
10) MAC 6-9 .400
11) CUSA 8-14 .364
12) FCS 7-58 .108
Once again, the SEC is on top, basically beating teams they're "supposed" to beat at a 92.6% clip, better than Ohio State HC Ryan Day's career winning percentage of 90%!
To no one's surprise by now, the AAC and SBC are the leaders among the G5.
The ACC is the worst among the P5, and CUSA is lowest overall, as the MAC climbs out of the basement.
Vs FCS Teams
T1) SEC 14-0 1.000
T1) SBC 14-0 1.000
3) ACC 13-0 1.000
4) Pac 12 10-0 1.000
5) Big 12 8-0 1.000
6) Ind 7-0 1.000
T7) AAC 9-1 .900
T7) CUSA 9-1 .900
9) Big Ten 8-1 .889
10) MAC 10-2 .833
11) MWC 9-3 .750
The SEC and SBC lead, but only because of the number of games, as the ACC finally appears near the top of the list.
The MAC and MWC were the only teams with multiple losses to FCS teams.
Here is how each conference did against every other conference. To read the chart, simply find the conference along the left side, then read across to see their record against every other conference. No team was able to get a win against every other conference, but the SEC was the closest, if only last place Auburn could have beaten 3rd place Penn State.
Which Conference Is Best?
Here are the overall records for each conference, ranked in order of winning percentage. Guess which one is first?
1) SEC 105-63 .625
2) Big 12 70-50 .583
3) Big Ten 95-73 .565
4) ACC 92-73 .558
5) Pac 12 80-64 .556
6) AAC 68-63 .519
7) SBC 86-80 .518
8) Ind 40-42 .488
9) CUSA 63-70 .474
10) MWC 68-76 .472
11) MAC 65-77 .458
Here, the ACC is not last among the P5, but only because they play 8 conference games, and the Pac 12 plays 9. The AAC and SBC are the top 2 G5 leagues, the only 2 above .500. The MAC finishes at the bottom.
Which Division Is Best?
And finally, if we break the conferences down into divisions, which one has the best overall record? You may be surprised! (Note: conferences without divisions are counted as 1 division.)
1) SEC East 54-30 .730
2) Big Ten East 53-31 .631
T3) SEC West 51-33 .607
T3) ACC Atlantic 51-33 .607
5) Big 12 70-50 .583
6) Pac 12 80-64 .556
7) SBC East 44-38 .537
8) AAC 68-63 .519
9) ACC Coastal 41-40 .506
T10) Big Ten West 42-42 .500
T10) SBC West 42-42 .500
T10) MWC Mountain 36-36 .500
13) Ind 40-42 .488
14) CUSA 63-70 .474
15) MAC East 33-37 .471
T16) MWC West 32-40 .444
T16 MAC West 32-40 .444
The SEC claims 2 of the top 4 spots, while the MAC claims 2 of the bottom 3. The Big Ten East and ACC Atlantic are also in the top 4
.
Intra-conference results
Here is how the divisions stacked up against each other within each conference:
The SEC West is 6-8 against the SEC East
The Big Ten East is 13-8 against the Big Ten West
The ACC Atlantic is 10-4 against the ACC Coastal
The MWC Mountain is 11-7 against the MWC West
The SBC East is 7-7 against the SBC West
The MAC East is 11-7 against the MAC West
The SEC East was 1-0 against the West this week; the Big Ten East was 0-1 against the West; the ACC Atlantic was 2-0 against the Coastal; the MWC Mountain was 1-1 against the West; the SBC West was 1-0 against the East; and the MAC West was 0-2 against the East.
With the regular season over, the only conference with divisions that ended up tied is the Sun Belt, so the conference championship game will decide the "better" division. Surprisingly, or perhaps not, the SEC East actually outplayed the SEC West, winning 8 of the 14 games. To no one's surprise, the Big Ten East, ACC Atlantic, and MWC Mountain dominated their counterparts. Another surprise was that the MAC East did comfortably better against the West.
Undefeated/Winless teams
The following teams are currently undefeated (listed alphabetically):
Georgia
Michigan
TCU
We finish with 3 (out of 131) undefeated teams in FBS, a loss of 1 from last week. There are NO winless teams.
Here are the undefeated teams by conference:
Big Ten- 1
SEC -1
Big 12 -1
ACC- 0
Pac 12 -0
SBC- 0
AAC- 0
CUSA- 0
Ind -0
MAC- 0
MWC- 0
In addition, there are 2 teams with only 1 win, but no wins over an FBS opponent, as Akron defeated NIU last week. Those teams are:
UMass
USF
Bowl eligible/eliminated
The following teams have earned their 6th win, and thus are bowl eligible. Three teams, Army, Appalachian State, and Marshall, play 2 FCS teams, so they will need 7 wins to qualify. As a transitional team, James Madison is ineligible for a bowl no matter how many games it wins. Since there are 41 bowl games, 82 teams will be needed. Teams that finish 5-7 may fill some of those slots if enough teams don't qualify with 6 wins. So far, we have 79 teams eligible. The teams are listed alphabetically.
Air Force
Alabama
Arkansas
Baylor
Boise State
Bowling Green
BYU
Cincinnati
Clemson
Coastal Carolina
Duke
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Fresno State
FSU
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Houston
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas State
Kentucky
Liberty
Louisiana
Louisville
LSU
Marshall
Maryland
Memphis
Miami, Ohio
Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Missouri
NC State
North Carolina
North Texas
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
San Diego State
San Jose State
SMU
South Alabama
South Carolina
Southern Miss
Syracuse
TCU
Tennessee
Texas
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UConn
USC
Utah
Utah State
UTSA
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Wisconsin
WKU
Wyoming
Broken down by conference:
SEC- 11- 78.6% of members
ACC- 9- 64.3%
Big Ten- 9- 64.3%
Big 12- 8- 80%
AAC- 7- 63.6%
Pac 12- 7- 58.3%
MWC- 7- 58.3%
SBC- 7- 50%
CUSA- 5- 45.5%
MAC- 5- 41.7%
Independents-4- 57.1%
The following teams have 7 losses, and therefore are eliminated from participating in a bowl, unless there are not enough 6-win teams available. At least 1 team, and as many as 3, will be needed to fill all of the bowl slots.
Akron
Appalachian State
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas State
Army
Auburn
Ball State
Boston College
California
Central Michigan
Charlotte
Colorado
Colorado State
FAU
FIU
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Indiana
Iowa State
Kent State
La Tech
Miami, Florida
Michigan State
Navy
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
ODU
Rice
Rutgers
Stanford
Temple
Texas A&M
Texas State
Tulsa
OLM
UMass
UNLV
USF
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Western Michigan
NOTE: Army and App State have only 6 losses, but since they have 2 wins over FCS teams, needed 7 wins to become bowl eligible.
In case you are interested, here are the number of teams with each amount of wins:
12 wins- 3 teams 2.3%
11 wins- 2 teams 1.5%
10 wins- 9 teams 6.9%
9 wins- 14 teams 10.7%
8 wins- 17 teams 13.0%
7 wins- 19 teams 14.5%
6 wins- 17 teams 13.0%
5 wins- 19 teams 14.5%
4 wins- 11 teams 8.4%
3 wins- 11 teams 8.4%
2 wins- 5 teams 3.8%
1 win- 4 teams 3.1%
0 wins- 0 teams 0%
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding to nearest tenth.
Here are the amount of teams with each amount of losses:
0 losses- 3 teams 2.3%
1 loss- 2 teams 1.5%
2 losses- 10 teams 7.6%
3 losses- 14 teams 10.7%
4 losses- 16 teams 12.2%
5 losses- 19 teams 14.5%
6 losses- 20 teams 15.3%
7 losses- 18 teams 13.7%
8 losses- 11 teams 8.4%
9 losses- 9 teams 6.9%
10 losses- 5 teams 3.8%
11 losses- 4 teams 3.1%
Here are the teams that can still achieve bowl eligibility, and their chances to do so, listed alphabetically, of course. There are still possibly 2 teams that can reach eligibility, and 3 slots available.
Team: Buffalo
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Akron (PPD game)
Bowl Chance: Very Good
Team: New Mexico State
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: San Jose St (PPD game)
Bowl Chance: Fair
NOTE: It is unclear at this time whether the NMSU-SJSU game will be played.
Conference Update
Here is how the conference races ended up.
AAC
Tulane will host UCF at 4 pm on Saturday on ABC
ACC
Clemson and North Carolina will play in Charlotte at 8 pm on Saturday on ABC
Big 12
TCU and Kansas State will play in Arlington at 12 pm on Saturday on ABC
Big Ten
Michigan and Purdue will play in Indianapolis at 8 pm on Saturday on FOX
CUSA
North Texas will play at UTSA at 7:30 pm on Friday on CBSSN
MAC
Toledo and Ohio will play in Detroit at 12 pm on Saturday on ESPN
MWC
Fresno State will play at Boise State at 4 pm on Saturday on FOX
PAC 12
USC will play Utah in Las Vegas at 8 pm on Friday on FOX
SEC
Georgia and LSU will play in Atlanta at 4 pm on Saturday on CBS
Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina will play at Troy at 3:30 pm on Saturday on ESPN
Updates on my playoff picks
Georgia topped Ga Tech this week, so they're probably in even if they lose to LSU in the SECCG. Alabama beat Auburn, but for all intents and purposes, seems to be eliminated from the CFP. Ohio State was routed by Michigan, but could still make it in depending on results this weekend. Utah has been eliminated with their 3rd loss, and has been reduced to the role of spoiler. Of those I didn't pick, TCU, Michigan, and USC seem to be the best bets. Clemson is probably eliminated with their loss to South Carolina. I guess LSU is also eliminated with their 3rd loss, regardless of what they do in the SECCG.
Games I'm Excited About
All of them! Seriously, I love all of the conference championship games, even though very little will actually be decided.The only ones that could have any true effect are the Pac 12 (Utah could knock USC out of the CFP), the Big 12 (KSU could knock TCU out of the CFP as well, but I think the Horned Frogs are in regardless, unless they are routed, something like 42-0), and the AAC (will determine the G5 representative in the NY6 bowls). Though the others don't have any "meaning", it's still great high quality college football! And there are 2 games that are not part of championship weekend. Check out all my picks in tomorrow's blog!
Feel free to leave a comment. Check out yesterday's Power Rankings, and come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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