Paul's Picks Week 13
Welcome Back!
It is Rivalry Week, and the last weekend of the regular season, and as everyone knows, in Rivalry Week, you can throw out the records, and all those other cliches. I had an okay week last week, as I was 47-18, or 72.3%, which makes me 549-229 for the year, or 70.6%, an increase of 0.2% from last week. This is the lowest percentage I've had for a full year I think I have ever had. Maybe this is a good thing, as perhaps parity is coming to college football. At least this is what I'm choosing to tell myself.
There are 63 games this week, but 2 have already been played. So far I am 2-0 after MACtion on Tuesday. Just so you know, this has been the most difficult week to predict games. So many could go either way that I'll honestly be surprised if I finish above 60%.
On to the picks!
Thursday, November 24
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss- The Rebels lead the series 64-46-6, and have won the last 2, but the 2 teams have split the last 6 contests. Ole Miss has only won 1 of the last 3 played in Oxford, and since they stopped playing in Jackson in 1991 (played there every year from 1973-1990), are 9-6 at home. The Bulldogs, 7-4/3-4, have won 2 of 3 since their off week, but are 1-3 on the road. Ole Miss, 8-3/4-3, has fallen apart since their idle week, losing 2 straight, but is 5-1 at home. The Rebs have struggled on both offense and defense the last 4 games, but so has MSU in 3 of their last 4 FBS games. I expect Ole Miss to bounce back and win this.
Friday, November 25
Tulane @ Cincinnati- The Green Wave lead the series 11-7, but the Bearcats have won the last 4, the last 2 by at least 16 points each. But those 4 games have spanned from 2014-2021, as these 2 have been infrequent opponents through the years. They 1st met in 1909, again in 1948 and 1966, played 3 times in the 70s, once in the 80s, 4 times in the 90s, and then 3 times in the aughts, before their most recent 4 outlined above. Tulane won the 1st 4 through 1970, split the 2 in 1976-77, lost in '81, then won all 4 in the 90's, before winning 2 of 3 from 2000-02. The Green Wave are 9-2/6-1, winning 6 of 7, and are 4-0 on the road. Cincy is also 9-2/6-1, winning 3 straight, and is 5-0 at home. The winner of this game will host the AAC Championship game, while the loser is likely out in favor of UCF, but that's not a given (see yesterday's Odds and Ends blog for all the possible scenarios). It's also possible that these 2 teams could play again in a week. In AAC games, Tulane is winning by an average margin of 35.9-23.9; Cincinnati by 25.6-19.3. They have had 5 common opponents, with both losing to UCF. I'm going with Tulane in the mild upset.
Baylor @ Texas- The Longhorns lead this series 79-28-4, but the Bears have won 2 of the last 3, including 31-24 last year, and the series is tied at 6 wins apiece since 2010. It's a shame that this is another rivalry that will be ended by conference realignment, as these 2 have been in the same conference together since both helped to form the old Southwest Conference back in 1915. Anyway, Baylor is 6-5/4-4, losers of 2 in a row, and is 3-2 on the road, 3-1 in the Big 12. Texas is 7-4/5-3winning 2 of their last 3, and is 4-2 at home, 2-1 in the Big 12. My Power Rankings have loved both of these teams all year, but especially the Horns. Texas wins.
Utah State @ Boise State- The Broncos lead the series 21-5, and have won 18 of the last 19, including the last 6 (5 by double digits). The Aggies haven't won on the blue turf since 1996, losing 10 straight in Boise. USU is 6-5/5-2, but has won 3 straight, and is 2-3 on the road, 2-1 in the MWC. BSU is 8-3/7-0, winning 6 of 7, and is 4-1 at home, 3-0 in the MWC. The Broncs are looking for their 1st perfect conference record since 2019. Boise State wins.
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan- The Chippewas lead the series 63-30-6, winning 8 of the last 10, including the last 2, but the Eagles have won 2 of the last 5, including 2 of the last 3 played in Ypsilanti. CMU is 4-7/3-4, winning 2 of their last 3, and is 2-3 on the road, 2-1 in the MAC. EMU is 7-4/4-3, winning 3 of 4 including 2 straight, and is 2-3 at home, 0-3 in the MAC. A win here would give the Eagles their most wins since they went 10-2 in 1987. Eagles win.
Toledo @ Western Michigan- The Rockets lead the series 45-31, and have won 9 of the last 12, including 34-15 last year, but the Broncos won the last time it was played in Kalamazoo, and 2 of the last 3 played there. Toledo is 7-4/5-2, winning 2 of 3, and they are 2-3 on the road, 2-1 in the MAC. WMU is 4-7/3-4, losing 2 of 3, and is 1-4 at home, 0-3 in the MAC. Toledo wins.
Arizona State @ Arizona- The Wildcats lead the series 49-45-1, but the Sun Devils have won 8 of the last 10, including the last 5. Most of Arizona's wins in this series came in 2 stretches: from 1902-1948, the Wildcats won 20 of 21 (after ASU won the initial game in 1899), and from 1982-1998, UA was 13-3-1 against the Sun Devils. Since 1999, the edge belongs to ASU by a score of 16-7. This year, ASU is 3-8/2-6, on a 3-game losing streak, and is 1-4 on the road, 1-3 in the Pac 12. Arizona is 4-7/2-6, losing 5 of 6, and is 2-4 at home, 1-3 in the Pac 12. Arizona has the greater potential, and has shown much improvement this year, even in their losses. Wildcats win.
NC State @ North Carolina- The TarHeels lead the series 68-37-6, but the Wolfpack have won 4 of the last 6, including last year, 34-30, and 5 of the last 7 played in Chapel Hill. NC State is 7-4/3-4, losing 2 in a row, and is 1-3 on the road, 0-3 in the ACC. UNC is 9-2/6-1, coming off a loss to Ga Tech, and is 3-2 at home, 2-1 in the ACC (2-2 if you count Notre Dame). The question is whether the Heels will allow 1 loss to turn into 2. I think UNC bounces back and wins.
Arkansas @ Missouri- The Tigers lead the series 9-4, winning 6 of 8 since joining the SEC, but the Razorbacks won 34-17 last year. The 2 teams split their bowl appearances, with UA winning the 2003 Independence Bowl and Mizzou winning the 2008 Cotton Bowl. Before then, they had met just 3 times: in 1906, 1944, and 1963, with Missouri winning 2 of 3. The Hogs are 6-5/3-4, losing 2 of 3, and are 2-1 on the road, 1-1 in the SEC (0-1 at a neutral site). The Tigers are 5-6/2-5, also losing 2 of 3, and are 4-2 at home, 1-2 in the SEC. The Piggies are 0-5 in Columbia, as their lone win in Missouri was in St. Louis in 1944. Tigers win to get to bowl eligibility.
New Mexico @ Colorado State- The Rams lead the series 43-25, winning the last 11. The Lobos are 2-9/0-7, on an 8-game losing streak, and are 0-5 on the road. CSU is 2-9/2-6, on a 4-game slide, and is 1-4 at home, 1-2 in the MWC. Both of these teams are bad, but the Rams have at least played some of their opponents close. CSU wins.
Nebraska @ Iowa- The Cornhuskers lead the series 29-20-3, but the Hawkeyes have won the last 7, and the last 3 in Iowa City. Nebraska is 3-8/2-6, losers of 5 straight, and is 1-2 on the road, 1-2 in Big Ten games (1-3 if you count the game in Dublin, Ireland against Northwestern). Iowa is 7-4/5-3, winners of 4 straight, and is 4-2 at home, 2-1 in the Big Ten. Iowa should win, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Huskers play them close.
UCLA @ California- The Bruins lead the series 56-34-1, and have won 7 of the last 9, including the last 2, but the Golden Bears have won 8 of the last 10 played in Berkeley. UCLA is 8-3/5-3, losers of 2 in a row, and is 2-1 on the road, both overall and in the Pac 12. Cal is 4-7/2-6, their win last week ending a 6-game slide, and they are 4-2 at home, 2-2 in the Pac 12. A win here for the Bears would make their season, as it would be the 1st time beating both Stanford and UCLA in the same season since 2019. UCLA wins.
Florida @ FSU- The Gators lead the series 37-26-2, winning the last 3, but the Seminoles have won 7 of the last 11. These teams met twice in the Sugar Bowl, with FSU winning in 1995 (after they had tied in the regular season), and UF winning in 1997 (after FSU won in the regular season). Florida is 6-5, losing 3 of their last 5 including to Vandy last week, and is 1-2 on the road (1-3 if you count the UGA game). FSU is 8-3, winning 4 in a row, and is 4-2 at home. Normally I opt to choose the SEC teams in these matchups, but I have little faith in the Gators, and actually think the Seminoles are a darn good team (as does my Power Rankings- Tuesday's blog). FSU wins.
Wyoming @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs lead the series 8-5, winning 5 of the last 6, including the last 3, but the Cowboys own the lone bowl win, in the 2009 New Mexico Bowl. The Bulldogs are 5-1 in games played in Fresno. Wyoming is 7-4/5-2, their 3-pt loss to Boise St last week ending a 4-game winning streak, and they are 3-2 on the road, 3-0 in the MWC. FS is 7-4/6-1, on a 6-game winning streak, and is 4-1 at home, 3-0 in the MWC. The Bulldogs have already punched their ticket to the MWC Championship Game, but they should be plenty motivated to win. FS wins.
Saturday, November 26
Virginia @ Virginia Tech- This game has been canceled, so the Cavaliers end their season at 3-7/1-6 and the Hokies wind up at 3-8/1-6.
Georgia Tech @ Georgia- Clean Old Fashioned Hate is due for its 116th rendition, and the Bulldogs lead 69-41-5, having won the last 4, and 17 of the last 20, but all 3 of Tech's victories, and 5 of their last 6, have been in Athens. While the Dawgs have won 7 in a row in the series twice, the Yellow Jackets still own the longest streak at 8 games, from 1949-1956. The Jackets are 5-6, winning 2 of their last 3, including an upset over UNC last week, and are 3-2 on the road (plus 0-1 at a neutral site). GT needs this win to obtain bowl eligibility. UGA is 11-0, looking for their 1st perfect season since 1980, and are trying to maintain their status as #1 in the CFP rankings. The Jackets have a lot of fight in them, and are fully capable of pulling off the upset, especially if the Dawgs turn the ball over too many times, or have errors on special teams. There is also the possibility of rain on Saturday, which could limit UGA's playbook, but I think the Dawgs will be focused and ready, and we won't have a repeat of last week, from either team. Dawgs win the Governor's Cup.
Michigan @ Ohio State- The Wolverines lead The Game 59-51-6, winning 42-27 last year, but that broke an 8-game OSU winning streak, and the Buckeyes have won 15 of the last 17 (since 2004). Michigan has not won in Columbus since the year 2000, which means they have lost 9 straight there on the field (OSU vacated the 2010 game). Both teams are 11-0/8-0. UM has won its Big Ten games by an average margin of 33.4-14; OSU by 46-17.9. It appears that their defenses are about even, but that the OSU offense is much better. However, the Michigan defense has been much more consistent; only one opponent has scored more than 17 (Maryland, with 27). The OSU defense, on the other hand, has allowed 2 opponents to score 30+, and 2 others to score 20+. I've gone back and forth on this one, with my heart/gut saying one thing, and my head saying another. Flip a coin. Ohio State wins at home.
South Carolina @ Clemson- The Tigers lead the Palmetto Cup 72-42-4, winning the last 7, including the last 3 played in Clemson, and all but 1 of those 7 have been by at least 18 points. The question is whether the Gamecocks get the unstoppable Spencer Rattler or the mistake-prone one at QB. The question for Clemson, as always, is how good their offense will be. If they're caught in a shootout like Tennessee was last week, can they keep up? But my feeling is the Clemson defense won't let that happen. Except they did against Wake Forest. SC is 7-4, winning 2 of their last 3, and is 2-2 on the road. The Tigers are 10-1, winning 2 in a row, and are 6-0 at home. Against P5 teams, SC is averaging 26-32 ppg; Clemson 33.2-20.9. All signs point to the Tigers. I have a feeling SC might win this, but go with the Tigers at home.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys lead the series 9-4, winning the last 7, and including a win in the 1987 Sun Bowl. WVU won the 1st 2 meetings, in 1928 and 1929, and then won 2 of the 1st 3 after joining the Big 12 in 2012, but they have only 2 wins in Stillwater: 1929 and 2014. The Mountaineers are 4-7/2-6, losing 4 of 5, and are 1-4 on the road, 0-3 in the Big 12. OSU is 7-4/4-4, losing 3 of 4, and is 6-0 at home, 3-0 in the Big 12. Cowboys win.
Army @ UMass- The Black Knights lead the series 4-0, but this is the 1st time the Minutemen will be hosting. Army is 4-6, losing 2 of their last 3, and is 0-3 on the road (and 0-1 at a neutral site). UMass is 1-10 with no wins over FBS opponents, and only 3 losses by less than 17 points. Army wins.
New Mexico State @ Liberty- The Flames lead the series 3-1, winning the last 3, and are 2-0 in Lynchburg. The Aggies are 4-6, winning 3 of 4, and are 1-4 on the road. LU is 8-3, losing their last 2, and are 4-1 at home. I don't see Liberty losing this, but then again, I didn't see them losing to UConn or Va Tech either. Liberty wins, but don't be surprised if NMSU keeps it close.
Rutgers @ Maryland- The Terrapins lead the series 10-7, but since both joined the Big Ten in 2014, it's only 5-3, with Maryland winning 40-16 last year. Before joining the Big Ten, they had met 9 times, with 7 matchups coming between 1920 and 1942 (4-3 Terps) and twice more in 2007 and 2009 (1-1 split). The Terps are only 2-3 in College Park this century, and 3-3 overall, as they played in other places in the 20s, 30s, and 40s. The Scarlet Knights are 4-7/1-7, on a 4-game losing streak, and are 1-3 on the road, 0-3 in the Big Ten. Maryland is 6-5/3-5, losing 3 straight, and 4-2 at home, 2-2 in the Big Ten. Terps win, probably by a score similar to last year.
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison- The series between these 2 is tied at 1 win each. The Chanticleers are 9-1/6-1, on a 3-game win streak, and had an unexpected idle week last week due to their game at Virginia being canceled. The Chants are 3-0 on the road. The Dukes are 7-3/5-2, winning 2 straight after a 3-game losing streak, and are 4-1 at home. A win for JMU would mean that they would tie with CCU at the top of the division, and would own the tiebreaker, but since they are a transitional program, the Dukes are ineligible to play in the Championship Game, win the SBC (or division), or play in a bowl game, no matter how well they perform. CCU wins.
ODU @ South Alabama- The Monarchs are 3-8/2-5, on a 5-game skid, and are 1-4 on the road. They haven't won since beating CCU by 28 points, the Chants' only loss. The Jaguars are 9-2/6-1winning 4 in a row, and are 4-0 at home. They need this win to have any hope at winning the SBC West, and a win would also give them 10 wins, 4 more than they've ever had at the FBS level. South Alabama wins.
Georgia State @ Marshall- The Panthers are 4-7/3-4, and have lost 2 in a row, and are 2-3 on the road, 1-2 in the Sun Belt. The Thundering Herd are 7-4/4-3, winners of 3 straight, and are 3-2 at home, 1-2 in the SBC. Marshall will win this 1st ever meeting, ending GSU's season of promise on a down note.
WKU @ FAU- The Owls lead the series 9-4, winning 4 of the last 5, but the Hilltoppers won 52-17 last year. WKU is 7-5/5-2, winning 2 of their last 3, and is 3-3 on the road, 2-1 in CUSA. FAU is 5-6/4-3, also winning 2 of 3, and is 4-1 at home, 3-0 in CUSA. The Hilltoppers need this win to have any chance at a spot in the CUSACG. WKU wins.
East Carolina @ Temple- The series is tied at 9 wins apiece, with the Owls winning 6 of the last 8, but the Pirates have won the last 2. The series is tied at 5-5 in Philadelphia. ECU is 6-5/3-4, losing their last 2, and is 2-2 on the road, 1-2 in the AAC. Temple is 3-8/1-6, also losing 2 in a row, and is 3-3 at home. 1-2 in the AAC. ECU wins.
Kent State @ Buffalo- The Bulls lead the series 14-13, but the Golden Flashes have won 2 of the last 3, and won last year 48-38. KSU has won 3 of the last 5 played in Buffalo, but the Bulls have won the last 2. The Flashes are 4-7/3-4, losing 2 of 3, and are 1-5 on the road, 1-2 in the MAC. Buffalo is 5-5/4-2, losers of their last 2, and is 2-1 at home, 2-0 in the MAC. By the time this game is played, the Bulls will know if they have a chance to play for a division title or not. Regardless, they will be playing for bowl eligibility. Bulls win.
Akron @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies lead the series 11-5, and have won the last 6, stretching back to 2006, but the Zips' last win was in the 2005 MAC Championship Game. The Zips haven't won in DeKalb since 1996, losing the last 4 played there. Akron is 1-9/0-6, and has no wins over an FBS foe. NIU is 3-8, 2-5, losing 3 of their last 4, and is 1-4 at home, 0-3 in the MAC. This is Akron's last chance to get an FBS win this year, but I doubt it will happen. Huskies win.
Rice @ North Texas- The Mean Green lead the series 7-5, winning 5 of the last 6, including the last 2. UNT needs this win to make it into the CUSA Championship Game for the 1st time since 2017. The Owls are 5-6/3-4, losing 3 of their last 4, and are 1-4 on the road, 1-2 in CUSA. Rice needs this win to make a bowl, but they've already improved their win total from last year. UNT is 6-5/5-2, winning 2 of 3, and is 4-1 at home, 3-0 in CUSA. One more win would be their most since they won 9 in 2018. North Texas wins.
Louisville @ Kentucky- The Wildcats lead the series 18-15, winning the last 3, and 4 of the last 5, but they have won only 1 of the last 5 played in Lexington. The Cardinals are 7-4, winning 5 of their last 6, and are 2-2 on the road. UK is 6-5, losing 3 of 4, and is 4-3 at home. This is one game where I'm going with the SEC, despite the "evidence". UK wins a close one over UL to claim the Governor's Cup.
Troy @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves lead the series 10-7, and have won 5 of the last 7, but the Trojans have won 2 of the last 3, including 38-10 in their most recent meeting in 2020. They 1st met in 1950, but only started playing semi-regularly in 2006. Now that they are in the same division, they'll play every year. Troy is 9-2/6-1, winning 8 consecutive games, and they need this win to claim the SBC West Title. ASU is 3-8/1-6, losing 5 of 6, and is 3-2 at home, 1-2 in the SBC. Troy wins.
Auburn @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide leads the series 48-37-1, winning 10 of the last 14, including the last 2, and 6 of the last 7 played in Tuscaloosa (2010 being the only Auburn win). In case you're interested, the lone tie was in 1907. Many of you may remember that this game was played in Birmingham for many years, from 1904-1988, and even sporadically after that, but went permanently home-and-home in 1999. Anyway, The Tigers are 5-6/2-5, but have won their last 2. The Plainsmen are 0-3 on the road this year, all of them SEC games. The War Eagles need this win to get to bowl eligibility, but that's a tall task. As long as LSU beats Texas A&M, AU will stay out of last place in the division. Alabama is 9-2/5-2, winners of 2 in a row, and is 6-0 at home, 3-0 in the SEC. A win here would solidify 2nd place in the SEC West for the Tide, and could even allow them to tie for 1st, though they would lose the tiebreaker to LSU. I really want to pick the Tigers, but Bama rolls.
Oregon @ Oregon State- The Ducks lead the series 68-47-10 (yes, 10 ties!), and have won 12 of the last 14, including 38-29 last year, but the Beavers have won 2 of the last 3 played in Corvallis. The Civil War has been played since 1894, and the 10 (TEN!) ties were in 1902, 1906, 1913, 1914, 1920, 1921, 1931, 1956, 1960, and 1983. Six of the ties, including the one in 1983, were of the 0-0 variety. One was 3-3, 1 was 10-10, and 1 was 14-14. Wonder how many OTs it would have taken to complete some of those? Oregon is 9-2/7-1, needing a win to get into the Pac 12 Championship Game, and is 4-0 on the road (0-1 at a neutral site), 4-0 in the Pac 12. OSU is 8-3/5-3, winners of 5 of 6, including 2 straight, and is 5-1 at home, 3-1 in the Pac 12. This should be a fantastic game, and again, I would love to predict an upset, but I truly think Oregon wins, especially if QB Bo Nix is ready to go.
Illinois @ Northwestern- The Fighting Illini lead the series 56-54-5, winning 47-14 last year, but the Wildcats have won 8 of the last 10, and 16 of the last 21, stretching back to 2003. NW has won 7 of the last 8 played in Evanston, the only loss coming in 2014. Illinois is 7-4/4-4, on a 3-game losing skid, and is 2-2 on the road, all in Big Ten games. The Wildcats are 1-10/1-7, losing 10 consecutive games after beating Nebraska in Ireland in their opener. The Illini will already know the result of the Iowa game, since that one is played on Friday, but the Purdue and Wisconsin games will be happening simultaneously. Illinois wins, and hopes for the right results from the other games.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin- The Badgers lead the series 62-61-8 (8 ties!), and have won 16 of the last 18, but they've split the last 4, with the Golden Gophers winning 23-13 last year. The ties occurred in 1907, 1911, then in 3 consecutive years from 1923-25, then 2 straight in 1952-53, and finally in 1956, but only 1 of the ties, 1953, was 0-0. Minnesota is 7-4/4-4, winners of 3 of 4, and is 2-2 on the road, all in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is 6-5/4-4, winning 3 of 4, and is 4-2 at home, 2-2 in the Big Ten. This is a true coin flip, but I think the Gophers win this.
Purdue @ Indiana- The Boilermakers lead the series 75-42-6, and have won 3 of the last 4, including 44-7 last year, but the Hoosiers have won 5 of the last 8. Purdue is 7-4/5-3, winning 2 in a row, and is 3-2 on the road, 3-1 in the Big Ten. Indiana is 4-7/2-6, their win in OT over Michigan State last week breaking a 7-game slide, and is 3-3 at home, 0-3 in the Big Ten. Purdue wins, and claims the Big Ten West, depending on the Iowa result Friday night.
Wake Forest @ Duke- These are 2 teams that had promising starts, but ended up with mediocre results. The Blue Devils lead the series 58-41-2, and have won 5 of the last 9, but the Demon Deacons have won 4 of the last 5, including the last 3. WF is 7-4/3-4, their win last week breaking a 3-game losing streak, and the Deacons are 2-2 on the road 1-2 in the ACC. Duke is 7-4/4-3, their loss to Pitt last week breaking a 3-game winning streak, and is 4-1 at home, 2-1 in the ACC. These are 2 evenly matched teams. Wake Forest wins.
Hawaii @ San Jose State- The Rainbow Warriors lead the series 22-21-1, winning 4 of the last 6, but the Spartans have won the last 2. UH is 3-9/2-5, with their win last week snapping a 4-game skid, and is 0-5 on the road, 0-3 in the MWC. SJSU is 6-4/4-3, losing their last 2, and is 5-0 at home, 3-0 in the MWC. Spartans win.
Memphis @ SMU- The Tigers lead the series 10-4, winning 7 of the last 8, and is 4-2 in Dallas, but the Mustangs won the last time it was played there, in 2020. Memphis is 6-5/3-4, winning their last 2, and is 1-3 on the road, 1-2 in the AAC. The Ponies are 6-5/4-3, winning 3 of 4, and are 3-2 at home, 2-1 in the AAC. Flip a coin, consult a Ouija board or Magic 8-Ball, roll a die; who knows? Tigers win.
UAB @ La Tech- The Bulldogs lead the series 6-4, but the Blazers have won 4 of the last 5, including 52-38 last year. However, LT is 3-1 in Ruston, but 2 of those wins were in the 90s. UAB is a disappointing 5-6/3-4, losing 4 of their last 5, and is 0-5 on the road. The Blazers need this win for bowl eligibility. The Bulldogs are 3-8/2-5, losing 5 of 6, including their last 2, and are 3-1 at home, 2-1 in CUSA. Despite the metrics, UAB wins to get to a bowl.
UTEP @ UTSA- The Roadrunners lead the series 7-2, winning the last 5, but are only 2-2 in San Antonio. The Miners are 5-6/3-4, losing 2 of 3, and are 1-4 on the road. A loss in this game would represent a step back from last year's 7-6 campaign as UTEP would fall short of making it into a bowl. UTSA is 9-2/7-0, on an 8-game winning streak, and a win here would represent their 1st perfect conference record in history, and their 2nd straight season with 10+ regular season wins. Meep! Meep! UTSA wins.
Iowa State @ TCU- The Horned Frogs lead the series 8-5, including a win in the 2005 Houston Bowl, but the Cyclones have won 4 of the last 5, including the last 3. ISU is 4-7/1-7, and truly one of the hard luck teams in FBS this year, as 6 of their 7 losses are by 7 points or less (reminiscent of Nebraska last year). TCU is 11-0/8-0, and a win would put them 1 win away from a berth in the CFP. Since the Horned Frogs can't do anything the easy way- 8 wins by 10 points or less- expect the Cyclones to keep it close, but TCU prevails in the end.
Michigan State @ Penn State- The Spartans lead the series 18-17-1, and have won 6 of the last 9, including 30-27 last year, but the Nittany Lions have won 2 of the last 3. The Lions are 10-3 in State College, but all 3 of MSU's wins have come in the last 5 meetings. The Spartans are 5-6/3-5, but have won 2 of their last 3, and 3 of 5, and are 1-3 on the road, 1-2 in the Big Ten. PSU is 9-2/6-2, winning 3 straight, and is 5-1 at home, 3-1 in the Big Ten. I really feel like this could be an upset that gets the Spartans to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but I just can't make myself go for it. Penn State wins the Land Grant Trophy.
Utah @ Colorado- The Utes lead the series 33-32-2, winning 11 of the last 13, including the last 5, but the 1st two of those 11 were played in 1961 and 1962, and the last 9 from 2011 to present. Utah is 8-3/5-2, with their loss last week ending a 4-game winning streak, and they are 2-3 on the road, 2-2 in the Pac 12. They are still clinging to (very) slim hopes of making it into the Pac 12 Championship Game. The Buffaloes are 1-10/1-7, and the only thing a win would do for them is get them out of a last place tie with Stanford. Utah wins.
Southern Miss @ ULM- The Golden Eagles lead the series 4-2, and have won the only game played in Monroe, in 2017, but the Warhawks won the last meeting 21-20 in 2018. USM is 5-6/3-4, but have lost their last 3, and is 2-3 on the road, 1-2 in the SBC. They need this win to become bowl eligible for the 1st time since 2019. ULM is 4-7/3-4, winning 2 of 3, and is 3-1 at home, 2-1 in the SBC. USM wins.
Louisiana @ Texas State- The Ragin' Cajuns lead the series 8-0, winning every game by at least 10 points. UL is 5-6/3-4, losing 3 of their last 4, and is 1-4 on the road, 1-2 in the SBC. The Bobcats are 4-7/2-5, their win last week stopping a 4-game slide, and they are 4-1 at home, 2-1 in the SBC. UL wins for the 9th time in a row to become bowl eligible.
Nevada @ UNLV- The Wolf Pack lead the series 28-19, and have won the last 2, but the 2 teams have split the last 4. However, Nevada has won 7 of the last 8 played in Las Vegas. The Wolf Pack is 2-9/0-7, and on a 9-game losing streak. The Rebels are 4-7/2-5, and on a losing streak of their own, albeit "only" 6 games. UNLV is 3-2 at home, but only 1-2 in the MWC. One of the losing streaks has to end. UNLV wins.
Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern- The Mountaineers lead the series 20-15-1, and have won 12 of the last 17, including the last 2, and are 5-3 in the last 8 played in Statesboro. ASU is 6-5/3-4, losing 2 of their last 3, and is 1-3 on the road, 0-3 in the SBC. The Eagles are 5-6/2-5, losers of 3 straight, and are 3-2 at home, 1-2 in the SBC. I'll go with the home team in a mild upset as GS attains bowl eligibility.
Middle Tennessee @ FIU- The Blue Raiders lead the series 12-5, winning 6 of the last 7, including the last 3, but they are 2-2 in the last 4 played in Miami. MTSU is 6-5/3-4, winning 3 of their last 4, and is 3-3 on the road, 1-2 in CUSA. The Panthers are 4-7/2-5, losing their last 3, and are 2-3 at home, 1-2 in CUSA. Raiders win.
LSU @ Texas A&M- The Tigers lead the series 35-22-3, which include wins in the 1944 Orange Bowl and the 2011 Cotton Bowl, and they've won 9 of the last 11, including 27-24 last year, but the teams have split the last 4. LSU hasn't won in College Station since 2016. The Bayou Bengals are 9-2/6-1, winning their last 5, and are 3-0 on the road (0-1 at a neutral site), all in the SEC. The Aggies 4-7/1-6, have completely collapsed, their win last week over UMass ending a 7-game losing streak, and they are 3-2 at home, 0-2 in the SEC (they beat Arkansas in Arlington). LSU wins to go into the SEC Championship Game on a roll.
UCF @ USF- The Knights lead this series 7-6, winning the last 5, as USF hasn't won in Tampa since 2016. UCF is 8-3/5-2, with their loss to Navy last week putting an end to their 3-game winning streak and severely dampening their chances of making it into the AAC Championship Game, and eliminating their chance of hosting. They absolutely must win this game to have any chance at all; they are 3-1 on the road, 2-1 in the AAC. The Bulls are 1-10/0-7, and 1 of 3 teams without an FBS victory. UCF wins.
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt- The Volunteers lead the series 78-33-5, winning the last 3, but the Commodores have actually won 5 of the last 10. The Vols are 9-2/5-2, losing 2 of their last 3, and are 2-2 on the road 1-2 in the SEC. The 'Dores are 5-6/2-5, winning their last 2, and are 2-3 at home, 1-2 in the SEC. The last time UT lost, they bounced back in a big way, but Vandy has played pretty well against everyone not named Alabama or Georgia, even in their losses. I know there is going to be a big upset (or 2, or 3, or 4...) this weekend, but I haven't allowed myself to go for it. But I think this may be it, though I'm probably wrong and it's only wishful thinking and UT will win by 40. But star QB Hendon Hooker of the Vols is out for the season. So here goes nothing. UPSET SPECIAL: Vandy wins!
Notre Dame @ USC- The Fighting Irish lead the series 48-36-5, winning the last 4, including the last 2 in LA. ND is 8-3, winning their last 5, and is 2-1 on the road, with 2 wins at neutral sites, and their only loss to Ohio State in their season opener. USC is 10-1, having won 4 in a row, and is 6-0 at home. A win for USC here and in the Pac 12 Championship Game would most likely get them in the CFP for the 1st time. But I like the way the Irish have played lately on both offense and defense, and I think they pull the upset. Notre Dame wins.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech- The Sooners lead the series 23-6, including a win in the 1993 Sun Bowl, and have won the last 10 meetings, scoring 49+ in 8 of them. But this years Tech defense has not allowed more than 45 in any game. The Red Raiders haven't won in Lubbock since 2009, losing 5 straight. OU is 6-5/3-5, losing 2 of their last 3, and is 2-2 on the road (0-1 at a neutral site), 1-2 in the Big 12 (1-3 with Texas game in Dallas). TTU is 6-5/4-4, winners of their last 2, and is 5-1 at home, 3-1 in the Big 12. This game could go either way, but I'm picking the home team in a mild upset. Red Raiders win.
Syracuse @ Boston College- The Orange lead the series 32-22, and won last year 21-6, but it's been 5-5 over the last 10 meetings. Syracuse is 6-5/3-4, but have lost 5 straight after starting 6-0, and is 1-3 on the road, 0-3 in the ACC. The Eagles are 3-8/2-5, losing 5 of 6, and are 2-3 at home, 1-2 in the ACC. Surely the Orange can break their losing streak against this team and perhaps save HC Dino Babers' job. Syracuse wins. At least I hope so, because I'm tired of picking them and being wrong...
Tulsa @ Houston- The Cougars lead the series 26-19, winning 6 of the last 7, including the last 3, and also the last 3 played in Houston, as the Golden Hurricane hasn't won there since 2012. Tulsa is 4-7/2-5, their win last week ending a 3-game slide, and is 1-4 on the road, 1-2 in the AAC. UH is 7-4/5-2, winning 5 of their last 6, and is 3-2 at home, 2-1 in the AAC. Houston needs to win this game to have any chance at making the AAC Championship Game, and I think they'll get it done. Cougars win.
Kansas @ Kansas State- The Jayhawks lead the series 65-49-5, but the Wildcats have won the last 13. KU dominated the early parts of the series, going 17-1-3 from 1902-1923. KSU then had a period on top, winning 12 of the next 17 from 1924-1940. That was followed by another long stretch of KU dominance as they won 11 of 12 from 1941-1952, and 22-3-1 from 1956-1981, In between, KSU won 3 straight from 1953-55. From 1982-1992, it was somewhat more even with KU holding a 6-4-1 edge, but starting in 1993, the Wildcats have controlled the series, winning 11 straight through 2003, and then the current 13 in a row from 2009 to the present. From 2004-2008, the Jayhawks had a brief surge, winning 4 of 5, including 3 straight. None of that is either here or there in relation to this year's game, but I always find series histories interesting. On to this year! Kansas is 6-5/3-5, losing 5 of 6 including their last 2, and is 2-3 on the road, 0-3 in the Big 12. They haven't won in Manhattan since 2007. KSU is 8-3/6-2, winning 3 of 4 and their last 2, and is 4-2 at home, 2-1 in the Big 12. A win here would put the Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship Game for the 1st time since 2003. KSU wins.
Pittsburgh @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes lead the series 29-11-1, and have won 22 of the last 25, including the last 4, and the Panthers haven't won in Miami Gardens since 2014, a string of 3 straight losses. That stretch of 22 out of 25 began in 1984, when the teams restarted the series after their last meeting in 1976, when Pitt had a lead of 8-7-1 in the series, which started in 1950. The Panthers are 7-4/4-3, winning 3 in a row, and are 2-2 on the road 1-2 in the ACC. Miami is 5-6/3-4, losing 2 of 3, and is 2-4 at home, 0-3 in the ACC. The Hurricanes need this win to get to a bowl, but I don't think they'll get it done. Pitt wins.
Air Force @ San Diego State- The Falcons lead the series 19-18, which includes a win in the 1981 Mirage Bowl in Tokyo, Japan, but the Aztecs have won the last 9, including in the 2015 MWC Championship Game. 6 of those 9 wins have been by 7 points or less. AFA is 8-3/4-3, winning their last 3, and is 1-2 on the road (plus a win at a neutral site), 1-2 in the MWC. SDSU is 7-4/5-2, also winning 3 in a row, and 5 of 6, and is 5-1 at home, 3-0 in the MWC. Air Force wins.
Washington @ Washington State- The Huskies lead the series 74-33-6, and have won 10 of the last 12, but the Cougars won 40-13 last year. However, Wazzu hasn't won in Pullman since 2012, losing 3 straight. UW is 9-2/6-2, winning 5 consecutive games, and is 2-2 on the road, all in Pac 12 games. They must win this game to make it into the Pac 12 Championship Game, and they'll know if they have a chance, as the Oregon game should be long finished by the time this one starts. WSU is 7-4/4-4, on a 3-game winning streak, and is 4-2 at home, 2-2 in the Pac 12. Washington wins.
BYU @ Stanford- The Cardinal lead the series 2-0, but the games were played in 2003 and 2004, so I don't think we can glean much from that information. The Cougars have had an up and down season, winning 4 of their 1st 5, then losing 4 in a row, before winning their last 2 to stand at 6-5. They are 1-2 on the road with a loss at a neutral site, to boot. Stanford is 3-8, and another loss would mirror last year's 3-9 record. The Cardinal have lost their last 4, and are 2-3 at home. Their only common opponents were Oregon and Notre Dame. Both teams lost to the Ducks on the road, Stanford by 18, BYU by 21, and the Cardinal beat Notre Dame on the road by 2 while the Cougars lost to the Irish by 8 in Las Vegas. Stanford pulls the mild upset to end the season on a high note.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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