Power Rankings 11-22-22

Welcome Back!

The 4th College Football Playoff Committee ratings come out tonight, and I'll be interested in how they move the various teams around based on the upsets and near upsets from this past weekend.

Before I get to discussing the Power Rankings, there are 2 games tonight. Here are my picks.

Tuesday, November 15

Ball State @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks lead the series 21-13-1, winning 5 of the last 6, including the last 2, but the lead is only 6-5 since 2006. Both teams are 5-6/3-4 and in need of a win to get to a bowl, but this year, the MAC East has been the stronger division, winning 9 of 16 crossover games so far. The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 4, and are 2-3 on the road. Miami has won 2 of 3, and is 2-2 at home. I expect this to be a close, hard fought game, but go with the home team. Miami wins.

Bowling Green @ Ohio- This game will go a long way in deciding who wins the MAC East. The Falcons lead the series 41-30-2, and won 21-10 last year, but that win broke a 5-game winning streak. y the Bobcats. BGSU is 6-5/5-2, winning 4 of 5, and is 3-2 on the road, but 3-0 in MAC play. A win could get them in the MAC Championship Game, but would not guarantee it (see tomorrow's Odds and Ends blog for full scenarios). Ohio is 8-3/6-1, winning 6 in a row, and is 5-0 at home. If they win this, the Bobcats WILL be in the MACCG. Maybe this is the year Ohio finally wins the MAC! But first, they have to get by the Falcons. Ohio wins a close one.

Back to the Power Rankings...

I feel like my rankings are pretty solid, but a few tweaks here and there would get it "right". But again, these are not my opinions; these are how my formula comes out, and it's a formula that I modify every year to try to be more accurate. I feel like each year has gotten better, but it's just not quite there yet.

I'm back to having 1 tie this week. Those of you who have been following this blog from its inception may remember that my 1st year of Power Rankings was littered with ties- sometimes I would have several teams tied for the same ranking even. As I have refined my formula, those have occurred less and less. This is one improvement from the past. For next year, I've got to figure out how to eliminate the extreme outliers. For example, there is no reason for a 5-4 Georgia Southern team to be ranked in the top 35 two weeks ago, or a 6-5 Texas Tech to be ranked #23 this week. There are other examples that have happened throughout the season that I have to figure out why, and then tweak my formula so that the results make more sense as the season goes on.

While there are still a few anomalies, as in some teams I feel are too high and some too low, by and large, I'm pretty pleased with where 90% or more of the teams are placed. Again, my goal is not so much to be correct right now, but to be correct at the end of the season.

Here are the teams that improved the most:

Georgia Tech +28 to #70

Houston +25 to #76

Navy +24 to #86

Oklahoma +19 to #60

Bowling Green +19 to #81

Iowa +17 to #39

Vanderbilt +17 to #48

Indiana +16 to #79

Marshall +15 to #53

Army +12 to #84

Utah State +12 to #93

South Carolina +11 to #30

Arkansas +10 to #21

Pittsburgh +10 to #50

Auburn +10 to #51

Virginia Tech +10 to #106

Here are the teams that dropped the most:

East Carolina -25 to #68

Michigan State -20 to #67

Liberty -19 to #56

North Carolina -18 to #32

San Jose State -17 to #80

Stanford -17 to #94

FAU -16 to #108

UCF -15 to #38

Toledo -15 to #57

UConn -15 to #77

ODU -15 to #109

Kent State -13 to #97

Georgia Southern -10 to #62

Boston College -10 to #101

Arizona State -10 to #103

UNLV -10 to #112

NOTE: 6 teams didn't move at all, and 23 teams moved 1 spot either up or down. Numbers 1, and 7-9 were the highest that didn't move, and the lowest that didn't move was #18.

Anyway, here are my rankings from 1 to 131 (LW stands for Last Week's Ranking). One thing that is new is that I have added the AP rankings in a separate column, so you can see how my rankings compare to the AP Poll. Notice how my rankings are more closely aligned with the AP Poll. I've also extrapolated the "also receiving votes" from the poll and included those.

Rank	Team	LW	AP
1	TCU	1	4
2	Georgia	3	1
3	Ohio State	2	2
4	Michigan	6	3
5	Tennessee	4	9
6	Alabama	5	7
7	Clemson	7	8
8	LSU	8	6
9	Penn State	9	11
10	USC	11	5
11	FSU	10	16
12	Texas	17	24
13	Kansas State	12	15
14	Oregon	16	10
15	South Alabama	15	T33
16	Utah	13	14
17	Notre Dame	20	13
18	Washington	18	12
19	Oregon State	21	22
20	Troy	22	28
21	Arkansas	31	T35
22	Tulane	26	19
23	Texas Tech	24
24	UTSA	29	26
25	Ole Miss	19	20
26	Mississippi State	25	T33
27	Illinois	28	30
28	Louisville	34	T31
29	Washington State	35
30	South Carolina	41	27
31	Baylor	30
32	North Carolina	14	18
33	UCLA	32	17
34	Wake Forest	40
35	Kansas	27
36	Cincinnati	38	21
37	Oklahoma State	33	T35
38	UCF	23	25
39	Iowa	56	T31
40	Florida	36
41	Ohio	50
42	Coastal Carolina	44	23
43	Minnesota	39
44	BYU	45
45	James Madison	53
46	Missouri	54
47	Boise State	59	29
48	Vanderbilt	65
49	Kentucky	46
50	Pittsburgh	60
51	Auburn	61
52	Purdue	49
53	Marshall	68
54	Maryland	51
55	Syracuse	48
56	Liberty	37
57	Toledo	42
58	NC State	55
59	Air Force	66
60	Oklahoma	79
61	Arizona	58
62	Georgia Southern	52
63	Duke	57
64	San Diego State	71
65	Wisconsin	70
66	Memphis	72
67	Michigan State	47
68	East Carolina	43
69	WKU	64
70	Georgia Tech	98
71	Wyoming	67
72	Texas A&M	74
73	SMU	69
74	Fresno State	78	37
75	Eastern Michigan	81
76	Houston	101
77	UConn	62
78	Iowa State	75
79	Indiana	95
80	San Jose State	63
81	Bowling Green	100
82	West Virginia	73
83	ULM	76
T84	Army	96
T84	North Texas	83
86	Navy	110
87	Miami, Fl	80
88	Buffalo	86
89	Georgia State	82
90	Middle Tenn	97
91	Southern Miss	88
92	UAB	85
93	Utah State	105
94	Stanford	77
95	Ball State	87
96	Rutgers	89
97	Kent State	84
98	Rice	90
99	California	108
100	Appalachian State	106
101	Boston College	91
102	Texas State	104
103	Arizona State	93
104	Louisiana	99
105	UTEP	109
106	Virginia Tech	116
107	Nebraska	103
108	FAU	92
109	ODU	94
110	Tulsa	112
111	Miami, OH	113
112	UNLV	102
113	New Mexico State	111
114	Virginia	115
115	Central Michigan	107
116	La Tech	114
117	Colorado	118
118	Western Michigan	123
119	Northwestern	122
120	Temple	121
121	Northern Illinois	117
122	Colorado State	120
123	Arkansas State	119
124	Charlotte	126
125	FIU	124
126	USF	125
127	Hawai'i	129
128	New Mexico	127
129	Nevada	128
130	Akron	131
131	UMass	130

Feel free to leave a comment. Check out my TWIF Notes from yesterday, and come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!