Power Rankings 11-29-22

Welcome Back!

The 5th College Football Playoff Committee ratings come out tonight, and I think we all know who the top 4 will be. Though we may not know whether UGA or Michigan will be 1 or 2, and whether TCU and USC will be 3 or 4, those will definitely be the top 4. The real intrigue comes in the 5-10 positions, which are only important if TCU and/or USC falter this weekend. Most people tend to agree that Georgia and Michigan are in, win or lose. Some even think that TCU may be in, win or lose, simply because no one else has a better resume. So let's talk about those next few spots.

In my mind, the only viable replacements for TCU and/or USC would be, in no particular order, Alabama, Tennessee, Ohio State, and Clemson. The Buckeyes have the problem of getting blown out at home, and not winning their division, but there is precedent for getting in the CFP without winning a conference or division- just last year, UGA lost in the SECCG and still made it in. And in 2017, Alabama was admitted without winning their division. OSU hopes that the CFP Committee will take the positives from both of those examples- Bama even though they didn't win the division, and Georgia even though they lost by 17, which is only 5 points away from the 22 the Buckeyes lost to UM by. Oh, and in the scenario where USC loses, OSU would be the last remaining 1-loss team.

Accepting UT, Bama, or Clemson would mean admitting a 2-loss team for the 1st time ever. What the Tigers have going for them is they would be a conference champion of a P5 conference, though as you'll see in my Odds and Ends tomorrow, the ACC is the weakest of the P5, which hurts Clemson's case. Alabama has 2 losses by a combined 4 points, both to teams in the top 15 or so (maybe?), but what quality wins do they have? 8-4 Texas? 8-4 Miss State? 8-4 Ole Miss? They beat Texas and Ole Miss by a combined 7 points. Tennessee has 2 quality wins, over LSU by 27 and over Bama by 3, so many argue they should be ahead of the Crimson Tide, but the Vols lost to South Carolina by 25, and the game wasn't really that close. This is the same SC team that only beat Clemson by 1, so that's another "feather" in the Tigers' cap, I guess.

To put it mildly, I bet the CFP Committee is hoping fervently that all 4 of UGA, UM, TCU, and USC all win, and win handily. If they do, you just may feel a breeze from a huge sigh of relief coming from their hotel conference room in Texas!

I feel like my rankings are pretty solid, but a few tweaks here and there would get it "right". But again, these are not my opinions; these are how my formula comes out, and it's a formula that I modify every year to try to be more accurate. I feel like each year has gotten better, but it's just not quite there yet.

I'm back to having multiple ties this week. Those of you who have been following this blog from its inception may remember that my 1st year of Power Rankings was littered with ties- sometimes I would have several teams tied for the same ranking even. As I have refined my formula, those have occurred less and less. This is one improvement from the past. For next year, I've got to figure out how to eliminate the extreme outliers. There are several examples that have happened throughout the season that I have to figure out why, and then tweak my formula so that the results make more sense as the season goes on.

While there are still a few anomalies, as in some teams I feel are too high and some too low, by and large, I'm pretty pleased with where 90% or more of the teams are placed. 

Here are the teams that improved the most:

Texas A&M +22 to #50

West Virginia +21 to #61

Nebraska +20 to #87

New Mexico State +15 to #98

Duke +13 to #50

Louisiana +13 to #91

Missouri +12 to #34

Southern Miss +12 to #79

Tulsa +12 to #98

Kentucky +11 to #38

NC State +11 to #47

South Carolina +10 to #20

James Madison +10 to #35

Fresno State +10 to #64

Army +9 to #75

SMU +8 to #65

Kent State +8 to #97

Here are the teams that dropped the most:

Liberty -24 to #80

Iowa -23 to #62

Toledo -21 to #78

Oklahoma State -20 to #57

Houston -17 to #93

Ball State -14 to #109

Coastal Carolina -13 to #55

Wyoming -11 to #82

Vanderbilt -10 to #58

ULM -10 to #93

Texas State -10 to #112

LSU -9 to #17

Buffalo -9 to #97

Rice -9 to #107

Florida -8 to #48

NOTE: 9 teams didn't move at all, and 25 teams moved 1 spot either up or down. Numbers 1-2, and 5-6 were the highest that didn't move, and the lowest that didn't move was #131.

Anyway, here are my rankings from 1 to 131 (LW stands for Last Week's Ranking). One thing that is new is that I have added the AP rankings in a separate column, so you can see how my rankings compare to the AP Poll. Notice how my rankings are more closely aligned with the AP Poll. I've also extrapolated the "also receiving votes" from the poll and included those.

Rank	Team	LW	AP
1	TCU	1	3
2	Georgia	2	1
3	Michigan	4	2
4	Ohio State	3	5
5	Tennessee	5	7
6	Alabama	6	6
7	USC	10	4
8	Penn State	9	8
9	FSU	11	14
10	Clemson	7	10
11	Kansas State	13	13
12	Texas	12	21
13	Washington	18	9
14	Oregon State	19	16
15	Oregon	14	15
16	Utah	16	12
17	LSU	8	11
18	South Alabama	15	32
19	Tulane	22	18
20	South Carolina	30	20
21	Troy	20	26
22	Notre Dame	17	19
23	Texas Tech	23
24	Mississippi State	26	25
25	UTSA	24	23
26	Illinois	27	33
27	Arkansas	21
28	Ole Miss	25	31
29	UCLA	33	17
T30	Washington State	29
T30	Baylor	31
32	Louisville	28
33	Kansas	35
34	Missouri	46
35	James Madison	45	T36
36	North Carolina	32	24
37	Cincinnati	36	28
38	Kentucky	49
39	Ohio	41	38
40	Minnesota	43	39
41	Wake Forest	34
42	UCF	38	22
43	BYU	44
T44	Boise State	47	29
T44	Pittsburgh	50	35
46	Purdue	52	30
47	NC State	58	27
48	Florida	40
49	Maryland	54
T50	Texas A&M	72
T50	Duke	63
52	Marshall	53
53	Syracuse	55
54	Air Force	59
55	Coastal Carolina	42	34
56	Auburn	51
57	Oklahoma State	37
58	Vanderbilt	48
59	Arizona	61
60	Georgia Southern	62
61	West Virginia	82
62	Iowa	39
63	Oklahoma	60
64	Fresno State	74	T36
65	SMU	73
66	East Carolina	68
67	WKU	69
68	Michigan State	67
69	Wisconsin	65
70	Eastern Michigan	75
71	San Diego State	64
72	Georgia Tech	70
73	Memphis	66
74	San Jose State	80
75	Army	T84
76	UConn	77
77	North Texas	T84
78	Toledo	57
79	Southern Miss	91
80	Liberty	56
81	Iowa State	78
82	Wyoming	71
83	Navy	86
84	Bowling Green	81
85	Indiana	79
86	UAB	92
87	Nebraska	107
88	Middle Tenn	90
89	Kent State	97
90	Miami, Fl	87
91	Louisiana	104
92	Georgia State	89
T93	Houston	76
T93	ULM	83
95	Utah State	93
96	California	99
97	Buffalo	88
T98	Tulsa	110
T98	New Mexico State	113
100	Stanford	94
101	UTEP	105
102	Rutgers	96
103	Appalachian State	100
104	Virginia Tech	106
105	Boston College	101
106	Arizona State	103
107	Rice	98
108	ODU	109
109	Ball State	95
110	Miami, OH	111
111	FAU	108
112	Texas State	102
113	UNLV	112
114	Virginia	114
115	Western Michigan	118
116	Central Michigan	115
117	Colorado State	122
118	Colorado	117
119	La Tech	116
120	Charlotte	124
121	Northwestern	119
122	Arkansas State	123
123	Temple	120
124	FIU	125
125	USF	126
126	Northern Illinois	121
127	Akron	130
128	Hawai'i	127
129	New Mexico	128
130	Nevada	129
131	UMass	131

Feel free to leave a comment. Check out my TWIF Notes from yesterday, and come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!