Welcome Back!
NOTE: Before I do anything, I just wanted to send my condolences to the family of former Mississippi State HC Mike Leach, who died earlier this week from complications from a heart attack. He was just 61, which makes him not much older than me, and I'm sure his family and team are saddened by the news. As of now, I have not heard how this will affect MSU's status as a bowl team, but I'm sure any decision they make will be in the best interests of the athletes and the university.
Instead of an Odds and Ends this week I'm doing a Conference Call. With the changing landscape in College Football, I thought it might be a good idea to revisit how the conferences will be set up over the next few years, and when those changes will be happening. I am also going to compare the accuracy of my preseason conference standings predictions with the 3 major magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy's, and Athlon, so let's start there.
Using the formula that Phil Steele describes on pages 6 and 7 in his excellent magazine, I compared my predictions against those of the 3 magazines. Phil Steele claims in his magazine to be the most accurate over the last 27 years, which is true, but he's not always the most accurate each and every year. In fact, assuming I applied the formula correctly, I have him finishing in 4th among the 4 of us! This is the 2nd time in 4 years I have finished ahead of him, but I didn't finish 1st overall. That prize goes to Athlon! This is how I calculated the points (like golf, lowest score wins):
Athlon- 180 points
Paul Anderson- 181 points
Lindy's- 189 points
Phil Steele- 192.5 points
I will admit that the magazines all were published (or at least went to press) before the Pac 12 announced they were going without divisions, so I assumed their rankings for that conference based on their overall rankings for all 131 teams, which may or may not be accurate. If we eliminate the Pac 12 altogether, the points come out this way:
Athlon- 168
Paul Anderson- 168
Lindy's- 166
Phil Steele- 172.5
In this case, Lindy's comes out on top.
It should also be noted that Athlon does not predict an order for Independents, so that is not included here. That fact does not affect the other 3 of us, as we all had the same amount of points from the Independents.
At any rate, my preseason conference predictions are at least as accurate as the major preseason magazines!
Conference Alignments
Here is how each conference is set to change over the next few years.
AAC
2023
Charlotte
East Carolina
FAU
Memphis
Navy
North Texas
Rice
SMU
Temple
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
USF
UTSA
6 teams are set to join next year to replace the 3 that are leaving, bringing the total to 14. They will not be using divisions, and will continue to play an 8-game schedule.
ACC
The ACC is not adding or losing any teams, but is dropping its division setup next year. They will still play an 8-game conference schedule using a 3-5-5 format, where each team will have 3 permanent opponents, and then alternate the other 10 teams from year to year, 5 per year.
Big 12
2023
Baylor
BYU
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
UCF
West Virginia
The Big 12 will not be using divisions, but will continue with a 9-game conference schedule that will preserve traditional rivalries (or at least those that will be left after Texas and Oklahoma leave for the SEC, whether that is in 2024 or 2025), and every school will play every other school at least once every 2 years.
Big Ten
2024
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers
*UCLA
USC
Wisconsin
The Big Ten will use divisions in 2023, but will perhaps dispense with them when USC and UCLA join the conference in 2024. The Big Ten has yet to decide whether to reconfigure their 2 divisions, go to pods, or ditch divisions entirely. A scheduling model has also not yet been worked out.
*= UCLA still needs approval from the California Board of Regents before they can officially join, and there appears to be some opposition, so their status is still somewhat uncertain as of this writing.
CUSA
2023
FIU
Jacksonville State
La Tech
Liberty
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State
Sam Houston
UTEP
WKU
CUSA will be a 9-team conference, but my understanding is that they are looking to add a 10th member, possibly from the FCS ranks, though one or more of the current remaining Independents, UConn, UMass, or Army (I highly doubt Notre Dame would join CUSA...) are a possibility. I assume they will play an 8-game round-robin schedule, and will pit their top 2 in a CUSA Championship Game, but I haven't heard any firm plans yet.
MAC
There are no changes to the MAC lineup, and I have heard of no changes to their current scheduling model, and no plans to expand.
Mountain West
The MWC is not adding or losing teams, but they are eliminating the 2 division format for the 2023 season. That means the 2 teams with the best conference record will meet in the title game.
Pac 12
2024
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Utah
Washington
Washington State
The Pac 12 is losing USC and UCLA (maybe) beginning in the 2024 season. They have already eliminated divisions, starting with this past season, and I assume they will begin a 9-game round-robin schedule once the 2 schools leave. No word yet whether they will change their name back to the Pac 10, or if they will look to expand to 12 or 14 or 16 teams (or some number in between).
SEC
2025
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Mississippi State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
The SEC will be adding Texas and Oklahoma in 2025, but it's possible they could be added sooner. Whenever the 2 teams join, the SEC plans to eliminate its 2-division format, and have the 2 teams with the best conference record play in the title game. A scheduling format has yet to be worked out, but most people feel the SEC is leaning toward a 3-6 model, with 3 permanent opponents, and 6 alternating, so each team would play every other at least twice every 4 years.
Sun Belt
The SBC is not expected to make any changes in the near future, as they are happy with their current lineup and division format.
New Conference
2024?
Abilene Christian
Austin Peay
Central Arkansas
Eastern Kentucky
North Alabama
Southern Utah
Stephen F. Austin
Tarleton State
*UT Rio Grande Valley
Utah Tech
A new conference, consisting of FCS members of the WAC and Atlantic Sun, are planning to petition the NCAA to join the FBS and form an 11th conference, which is yet to have a formal name. They plan to join in 2024. Since this is a whole conference possibly joining, it is possible they may not have to do the whole FBS transition thing, but that is still up in the air. They are also looking to expand almost immediately.
*= Expected to join in 2025, in that program's 1st season
Games I'm Excited About
Obviously I'm excited about the CFP games, but I'm going to cop out and say all of the bowl games, because if you can't get excited about the Duke's Mayo Bowl or the Cheez-It Bowl, or you even a true college football fan?
I do plan to watch some of every game except 2: the Bahamas Bowl, because it's at 11:30 am this Friday, and I'll be at school with students; and the Arizona Bowl, because it's on something called Barstool on Dec 30, and I have no idea how to even watch it! Maybe I have to be on a barstool...
Feel free to leave a comment. Check out yesterday's Power Rankings, and come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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