Paul's Picks Bowls Part I
Welcome Back!
I was perfect last week, as I went 1-0, or 100%, which makes me 602-252 for the year, or 70.5%, no change from last week. This is the lowest percentage I've had for a full year that I think I have ever had. Maybe this is a good thing, as perhaps parity is coming to college football. At least this is what I'm choosing to tell myself.
Bowl season starts this week, and as I'm sure you know, bowls are notoriously difficult to pick, especially lately. This is because of all of the coaching changes, with interims coaching bowls in some cases, all of the opt-outs as athletes prepare for the NFL Draft, and all of the players entering the transfer portal who will not be available. And then of course there are the "normal" things like injuries, motivation (or lack thereof) for each team, and the long layoffs for many teams and how that affects them. And I don't pretend to know who is available, and who isn't, for each match up. All I'm saying is that this is mostly just guesses, even more so than during the regular season. But it's still fun to do anyway!
One of the fun aspects of bowls is that it pairs teams that have rarely, if ever, played before.
On to the picks!
Friday December 16
Miami, Oh vs UAB (Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas)- The Redhawks and Blazers have never met before. Miami is 8-5 all-time in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 4, but has never played in the Bahamas Bowl. UAB is 2-3 in bowls, going 0-1 in this bowl, but they've won 2 of their last 3 bowl appearances. The Bahamas Bowl has pitted a CUSA team against a MAC team all 7 years it has been played, with CUSA holding a 4-3 advantage. The Redhawks won 3 of their last 4 games and the Blazers won 2 of their last 3, with both teams finishing 6-6. This will probably be a competitive game, as 5 of the 7 previous Bahamas Bowl games have been decided by 14 points or less, 4 by 7 or less. UAB wins.
UTSA vs Troy (Cure Bowl in Orlando, FL)- This is the only bowl game that pits 2 conference champions! Both teams are 11-2, each with a loss to a P5 team: UTSA to Texas by 21 and Troy to Ole Miss by 18. UTSA's other loss was to Houston in triple OT, and they own an OT win at Army as well. Troy's other loss was on a Hail Mary at App State, and they also own a win over Army, as well as over WKU of CUSA. The Roadrunners are 0-3 in bowl games, losing their 1st 2 by a combined 10 points before losing to SDSU last year by 14. The Trojans are 5-3 in bowls, winning their last 4. This is the 1st time either team has made an appearance in the Cure Bowl. Both teams are on 10-game winning streaks. This may be one of the best games of the bowl season! Troy wins.
Saturday, December 17
Cincinnati vs Louisville (Fenway Bowl in Boston, MA)- The Bearcats lead this series 30-22-1, and have won 4 of the last 6, but the Cardinals have won the last 2. Though they haven't played since 2013, 7 of their last 8 contests have been decided by 9 points or less. This is the 1st year of the Fenway Bowl, so obviously neither team has participated before. Cincinnati is 9-11 in bowl games, losing their last 2. Louisville is 11-12-1, winning 5 of their last 10, but only 2 of their last 5. One oddity is that UL HC Scott Satterfield will be UC's new HC next year! The Bearcats are 9-3, winning 3 of their last 4. The Cardinals are 7-5, winning 5 of 7, but losing 2 of their last 3. Cincy wins.
SMU vs BYU (New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM)- The Cougars lead the series 3-0, winning the 1 time they've played in a bowl, in the 1981 Holiday bowl 46-45, one I vividly remember watching as it involved a great comeback by BYU! The Mustangs are 7-9-1 in bowls, losing their last 2. BYU is 16-22-1 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 5. BYU is 1-0 in the New Mexico Bowl, beating UTEP back in 2010, but this is SMU's 1st appearance. Both teams are 7-5, with the Ponies winning 4 of their last 5 and the Cougars winning their last 3. Flip a coin. BYU wins in its last game as an Independent before joining the Big 12.
Washington State vs Fresno State (LA Bowl in Inglewood, CA)- The Cougars lead the series 3-1, winning the last 2, but all 4 games were played between 1987 and 1994, so it's been a while. Wazzu is 8-9 in bowl games, but have lost 4 of their last 5, including their last 2. The Bulldogs are 13-13 in bowls, and have won 3 straight. This is only the 2nd year for the LA Bowl, and this is the 1st appearance for both teams. WSU has won 3 of their last 4 to finish 7-5; FS has won 8 consecutive games to finish 9-4. This is yet another good matchup. Fresno State wins to get to 10 wins for the 2nd straight year.
Rice vs Southern Miss (Lending Tree Bowl in Mobile, AL)- The series is tied 6-6, with the Owls winning the last 2, but the Golden Eagles won the 5 before that. USM is 2-0 in the Lending Tree Bowl, winning in 2000 (when it was the Mobile Alabama Bowl) and in 2007 (when it was the GMAC Bowl). This is Rice's 1st appearance. The Owls are 7-5 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4, but this is their 1st bowl since 2014. The Golden Eagles are 11-13 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4. Rice comes into this game losing 4 of their last 5, and 3 straight; USM has lost 3 of 4, but won their last game to finish 6-6. Rice is the lone bowl team that is 5-7. Southern Miss wins.
Florida vs Oregon State (Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV)- These 2 teams have never met before. The Gators are 24-23 in bowls, and are 10-5 in their last 15 bowl games, though they've lost their last 2. The Beavers are 11-7 in bowls, which is dam good (get it?), though they've lost 3 of their last 4. OSU is 1-1 in the Las Vegas Bowl, winning in 2003 over New Mexico, and losing in 2009 to BYU. This is Florida's 1st appearance. UF stumbles into this game after losing their last 2 and ending up at 6-6, and QB Anthony Richardson has declared for the NFL Draft, so he won't be available; OSU won 6 of their last 7, and their last 3, to finish 9-3, and are looking to finish with 10 wins for the 1st time since 2006, and only the 3rd time ever (2000 was the other time). Beavers win.
North Texas vs Boise State (Frisco Bowl in Frisco, TX)- This series is tied at 3 wins each, but all the games were played between 1994 and 2000. This is the 1st appearance in the Frisco Bowl for both teams. The Mean Green is 2-10 in bowl games, and haven't won a bowl game since 2013, losing 5 in a row. The Broncos are 12-7 in bowls, winning 7 of their last 10, but losing 2 of their last 3. UNT won 3 of their last 4, then lost at UTSA in the CUSA Championship Game to finish 7-6, then fired HC Seth Littrell. BSU won 7 of their last 8 before losing to Fresno State in the MWC Championship Game to end up at 9-4. Broncos win.
Monday, December 19
Marshall vs UConn (Myrtle Beach Bowl in Conway, SC)- The only time these 2 have met previously was in the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl, won by Marshall 16-10. This is only the 3rd year in existence for the MB Bowl, and this is the 1st appearance for each team. The Thundering Herd is 12-5 in bowl games, but have lost their last 3, 2 of those by double digits. The Huskies are 3-3 in bowls, losing their last 2, but those were in 2010 and 2015. Marshall, 8-4, comes in on a 4-game winning streak; UConn, 6-6, won 3 of their last 4, but lost to Army in their finale. Marshall has wins over Notre Dame, JMU, and App State; UConn has wins over MWC champion Fresno St, Boston College, and Liberty. This has the makings of a close, competitive game. The Thundering Herd wins.
Tuesday, December 20
Eastern Michigan vs San Jose State (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID)- The one previous meeting between these teams was in the 1987 California Bowl, a 30-27 win by EMU. This is the 1st appearance in this game for both teams. The Eagles are 1-4 in bowls, losing their last 4. The Spartans are 7-4, winning 4 of their last 5, but losing their most recent game in 2020; those 4 wins stretch from 1990-2015. Eastern Michigan enters on a 3-game winning streak, and is 8-4 overall; a win here would bring them 1 short of their most ever- a 10-2 season in 1987 . SJSU is 7-4, their game with New Mexico State having been canceled, and they have lost 2 of their last 3, but an 8th win would give them their most since they went 11-2 in 2011. EMU wins.
Liberty vs Toledo (Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, FL)- The Rockets lead the series 3-0, having won in 1994, 2003, and 2007. Toledo is 1-0 in this bowl, beating Temple in 2015; this is Liberty's 1st appearance. The Rockets are 10-9 in bowls, losing their last 4. The Flames are 3-0. Toledo lost their last 2 regular season games, then beat Ohio in the MAC Championship Game to end up with an 8-5 record. Liberty started 8-1, then lost their last 3 to finish 8-4. I think I have been wrong with predicting every game involving the Flames (except when they played an FCS team) this year- when I picked them to lose, they won, and when I picked them to win, they lost. Maybe that will change now that HC Hugh Freeze has left for Auburn. Toledo wins.
Wednesday, December 21
WKU vs South Alabama (New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA)- The Jaguars lead the series 1-0, having won their lone contest way back in 2013. This is the 1st time for both teams in the NO Bowl. The Hilltoppers are 5-3 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3. The Jaguars are 0-2, losing in both 2014 and 2016. WKU finished 8-5winning 3 of their last 4, their only loss to Auburn in that span. USA is 10-2, by far their best record, as it beats their previous best by 4 games! The Jags won their last 5, and their 2 losses were to UCLA by 1, and to SBC champion Troy, by 4. South Alabama wins.
Thursday December 22
Baylor vs Air Force (Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX)- The Bears lead the series 3-0, winning 2 of the 3 games by at least 24 points, but the 3 games were played in 1961, 1962, and 1977. This is Baylor's 1st appearance in the AF Bowl, but Air Force has appeared in 5, going 1-4, winning in 2009, but losing in 2007, 2008, 2012, and 2015. The Bears are 14-12 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5. The Falcons are 14-11-1, also winning 4 of 5, but winning their last 3. Baylor is 6-6, losing their last 3. Air Force is 9-3, winning 4 straight. AFA wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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