Paul's Picks 2025 Bowls Part 3

Welcome Back

So far in the bowls and CFP games, I am 14-14 (50%) including the Army-Navy game, making me 684-231 overall with a winning percentage of 74.8% (down 0.3% from last week), my first time dropping below 75% for the year. You should know that I often root against my picks, as I rarely go with my heart- I almost always pick the team I think will win, not the one I hope wins.

So now we have more bowl games, and the CFP Quarterfinals to go, as well as the semifinals and the final. Full disclaimer- I'm usually around 50% for bowls, as they are notoriously difficult to predict, due to coaching changes, opt-outs, etc. In other words, don't bet the house based on my picks; it's all a crapshoot anyway, but I'm going to give it the ol' College Try!

So...on with the picks!

Monday, December 29

Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State (JLab Birmingham Bowl- Birmingham, AL) - The Birmingham Bowl began as the PapaJohns.com Bowl in 2006, and then became the BBVA Compass Bowl (2011-2014) before settling in at its current name in 2015. Both teams are making their 1st appearance here, but the Sun Belt is guaranteed their 1st win in this bowl, as they are currently 0-2. The Eagles are 3-4 in bowl games, losing their last 3, while the Mountaineers are an amazing 7-1, with their only loss in the 2021 Boca Raton Bowl to WKU. ASU is 5-7, only being able to play because some other teams opted out, as they have lost 5 of their last 6, and are just 2-4 away from Kidd Brewer Stadium. GS is 6-6, winning 3 of their last 4 to sneak into bowl eligibility, as they were also 2-4 on the road away from Allen E. Paulson Stadium on the banks of beautiful Eagle Creek. One of those wins was 25-23 in Boone, giving the Eagles 3 wins in the last 4 meetings, but the Mountaineers still lead the series 21-18-1. Georgia Southern makes it 3 in a row (and 2 this year) over App State.

Tuesday, December 30

Coastal Carolina vs La Tech (Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl- Shreveport, LA)- The Independence Bowl has been around for almost 50 years, as it began play in 1976. La Tech is 3-2-1 here, and has made more appearances in this bowl than any other team (Ole Miss is 2nd with 5), but they lost 27-6 to Army last year. CCU will be making their 1st appearance, as SBC teams are 0-2 here, while CUSA teams are 2-2 (most of LT's appearances were as a member of another conference- Southland twice, as an Independent once, and as a member of the WAC once). The Bulldogs are 8-5-1 in bowl games, losing their last 2 (2020 and 2024); The Chanticleers are 2-3 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3. The Chants come into this game at 6-6 and on a 3-game slide, as they are 2-4 away from the teal turf at Brooks Stadium in Conway. The Bulldogs are 7-5, their 1st winning season since they were 10-3 in 2019 under HC Skip Holtz (which ended, by the way, in an Independence Bowl win), and they enter this game winning their last 2 and 2-4 outside of Joe Aillet Stadium. LT wins this 1st ever meeting.

Tennessee vs Illinois (Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl- Nashville, TN)- The Music City Bowl began in 1998 with an Alabama loss to Va Tech. Tennessee is 1-2 here, losing in double OT to UNC in 2010, and in OT to Purdue in 2021, with their lone win in 2016 over Nebraska (by 14 points, so NOT in OT). This will be the first time in this bowl for Illinois. SEC teams are a woeful 10-15 in Nashville, losing 4 of the last 5, while the Big Ten is 6-5. The Volunteers are 8-4, winning 2 of their last 3, and they are 4-1 away from Neyland Stadium. The Fighting Illini is also 8-4, winning 3 of their last 4, but they are only 2-3 outside of Memorial Stadium. UT and the Illini have never met before despite not being that far away from each other- you would think they had at least met in a bowl or had a home-and-home at some point. Vols win a close one.

USC vs TCU (Valero Alamo Bowl- San Antonio, TX)- The Alamo Bowl has been around since 1993 with TCU 2-0 here with wins in Jan 2016 (2015 season) and Dec 2017, over ranked Oregon and Stanford teams respectively. USC will be playing in this bowl for the 1st time. The Big 12 is a decent 16-14 here, with the Big Ten 8-8 and the Pac 12 7-9. The Trojans are 9-3, winning 4 of their last 5, as they are just 2-3 away from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The Horned Frogs are 8-4 and on a modest 2-game winning streak, but 3-3 outside of Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. The Frogs lead the series 3-2, with the Men of Troy winning in 1951 and 1977, and TCU winning in 1954, 1960, and 1998, so it's been a while since they played each other. USC wins.

Wednesday, December 31

Iowa vs Vanderbilt (ReliaQuest Bowl- Tampa, FL)- This bowl began life as the Hall of Fame Bowl way back in 1986 with a Boston College win over UGA. It became the Outback Bowl in 1996 before finally becoming the ReliaQuest Bowl in 2023. This bowl has seen quite a few matchups between ranked teams, especially early in its existence, and this game is no exception. In fact, only 6 contests have not included at least 1 ranked team, and this game will be the 20th between 2 ranked games. Iowa is 3-3 here, and with this appearance ties Michigan for the most all time, but they've lost 2 of their last 3. Vandy will be making their 1st appearance, as the SEC is 20-14 in this game while the Big Ten is just 14-22, losing 4 of their last 5. The Commodores are 5-4-1 in bowl games, losing 2 of their last 3 (since 2016) while the Hawkeyes are 18-18-1 in bowls, losing their last 2 to Tennessee and Missouri, as this will be the 5th consecutive bowl against an SEC team, and the 2020 bowl against Missouri was canceled. Iowa is 8-4, winning their last 2, and they are 3-2 away from Kinnick Stadium. The Dores are 10-2, on a 3-game winning streak, and they were also 3-2 outside of FirstBank Stadium. This is another case of teams with long histories that have never faced each other. Vandy wins in Diego Pavia's last game (at least I THINK it will be his last game...). 

Arizona State vs Duke (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl- El Paso, TX)- The Sun Bowl (along with the Orange and Sugar Bowls) is the 2nd oldest bowl game, having been played since 1935. In contrast to the bowl listed directly above, it has rarely hosted 2 ranked teams (just 11 times with the most recent in 2023), but it has had 5 Top Ten teams, with the highest ranked being SMU at #6 in 1983 (they lost to unranked Alabama). ASU is 4-2-1 here, moving into a tie for 2nd in appearances with UTEP, just one behind Texas Tech, and they've played here 3 times since 2014, going 2-1 in those games. Duke is 0-1 in this game, losing in 2014 to the same opponent they face this year. The Blue Devils are 6-9 in bowl games, winning 5 of their last 6 (since 2015), while the Sun Devils are 15-17-1, losing their last 2 (since 2021). ASU is 8-4, but won 3 of their last 4 and are 3-2 outside Sun Devil Stadium. Duke is 8-5, winning their last 3 including the ACC CG over Virginia, and they are 5-2 away from Wallace Wade Stadium. Their only previous meeting was in the aforementioned 2014 Sun Bowl, won 36-31 by the Sun Devils. ASU wins this Devil Match.

Michigan vs Texas (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl- Orland, FL)- The Citrus Bowl began life as the Tangerine Bowl way back in 1947, but like so many others, it has gone through some name changes. First it was to the Florida Citrus Bowl (1983-2002), then the Capital One Bowl (2003-2014), and then finally back to just the Citrus Bowl. Michigan is 4-2 here, and with this appearance, breaks a tie to become the team with the most. Texas will be making their 1st appearance. The SEC is 25-15-1 in this bowl game, winning 5 of their last 7, while the Big Ten is 14-19 here. The Longhorns are 33-27-2 in postseason play, winning 3 of their last 4, while the Wolverines are 24-29 in the postseason, winning their last 4 contests, including the 2023 National Championship Game. UM is 9-3, winning 5 of their last 6 and are 4-2 away from the Big House, but they've had a little bit of turmoil lately, as HC Sherrone Moore has been fired for cause, and they will be led by interim HC Biff Poggi, former HC at Charlotte and long-time assistant in Ann Arbor, but they've just hired former Utah HC Kyle Whittingham. UT is also 9-3, winning their last 2, but are only 2-3 outside of Darrell K. Royal Stadium in Austin. Texas is 2-0 against the Wolverines, winning in the 2005 Rose Bowl, and last year in Ann Arbor. It's hard to know how Michigan players will handle all of the distractions, as it could bring them together in an "us against the world" kinda way, but I think the Horns take it to them.

Nebraska vs Utah (SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl- Las Vegas, NV)- The Las Vegas Bowl began in 1992 with a 35-34 Bowling Green win over Nevada, and a majority of the games since have been relatively close, with only a few blowouts. Utah is 4-2 here, and with this appearance moves ahead of BYU for most times playing in this game. Nebraska is making their very 1st appearance here. The Big Ten is 3-0 in this bowl, winning in 2021, 2023, and 2024, and although a Big 12 team is playing in this game for the 1st time, the Pac 12 is 10-11 in this bowl. The Utes are 17-9 in bowl games, but have lost their last 5; the Cornhuskers are 27-27 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3, but last year's appearance broke a long 7-year bowl drought. NU is 7-5, losing their last 2, and 3-2 away from Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. UU is 10-2, winning their last 5, and they are a stellar 5-1 outside of Rice-Eccles Stadium, and they wll be led by new HC Morgan Scalley after Kyle Whittingham left for Michigan.. This game is tied with UConn-Army and Wake Forest- Mississippi State as the bowl contest with the greatest disparity of wins between competing teams, as the Huskers have 3 fewer wins than the Utes. Utah relies on its defense to shut down Nebraska and pull off the win.

10 Miami, Fl vs 2 Ohio State (CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- Dallas, TX)- The Cotton Bowl Classic is one of the oldest bowl games, beginning in 1937 with a contest between #16 TCU (16) and #20 Marquette (6), and for 53 years, the winner of the now-defunct Southwest Conference sent their champion there to act as host. The old SWC had a 24-29-4 record here. Miami is 1-0 in this game, winning 46-3 over #3 Texas in 1991 (the Canes came in at #4). OSU is 3-1 here, winning in 1987 over #8 Texas A&M, 2017 over #8 USC, and last year over #4 Texas on their way to a National Championship. Their lone loss came in 2023 against Missouri. In CFP games, Miami is 1-0, winning back on Dec 13 of this year, while the Buckeyes are 7-4 with 2 national championships. The U's last national championship came in 2001, with a victory over #4 Nebraska in the Rose Bowl (the old BCS). The Big Ten is 6-2 in this bowl (with OSU accounting for both half the wins and half the losses) while the ACC is a mere 2-1, with wins in 1961 and 2018 and the loss in 1977. In CFP games, the ACC is 7-8 with 2 national championships (both won by Clemson) and the Big Ten is 12-10 with 3 national championships, 2 by the Bucks and 1 by Michigan. The Buckeyes are 35-30 (.538) in postseason games, winning 4 in a row (all in last year's CFP) while the Hurricanes are now 20-25 (.444) after their win over Texas A&M breaking a 6-game losing streak in bowls. The Canes are 11-2, winning 5 in a row, and are 4-1 away from Hard Rock Stadium. Ohio State is 12-1 with their only loss to Indiana in the Big Ten CG, and this will be their 1st competition since that loss. They are 5-1 away from Ohio Stadium. The Buckeyes lead the series 3-2, with wins in 1977 in Columbus, the 2003 Fiesta Bowl for the National Championship, and 2010 in Columbus (since vacated). UM's 2 wins came in the 1999 Kickoff Classic in East Rutherford and in 2011 in Miami Gardens. I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game, but OSU is one of the few teams I believe can win it all. Buckeyes win.

Thursday, January 1

5 Oregon vs 4 Texas Tech (CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl- Miami Gardens, FL)- The Orange Bowl has been around since 1935, one of 3 that began that year that led to many others being added in the coming years. Up until then, only the Rose Bowl was in existence. Interestingly, neither of these teams have ever appeared here, but the Big 12 is 4-3 (SWC was 4-4) and the Big Ten is 5-6 (Pac 12 was 4-0 with a USC vacated to make them 3-0). For years, this bowl was "hosted" by the winner of the Big Eight before it merged with 4 teams from the SWC to form the Big 12. The Ducks are 2-2 in CFP games, but the Red Raiders will be making their 1st appearance. The Big 12 is 1-7 in CFP games, with the Pac 12 2-3 (and Big Ten 12-10). Oregon is 17-21 (.447) in postseason games, winning 3 of their last 4, including the opening round of the CFP against James Madison. Texas Tech is 17-24-1 (.417) in bowls, but have also won 3 of their last 4, losing to Arkansas in last year's Liberty Bowl. The Red Raiders are 12-1 as champions of the Big 12, winning their last 6, and they are 5-1 away from Jones AT&T Stadium. The Ducks are also 12-1 after their win a couple of weeks ago giving them a 7-game winning streak, as they are 6-0 outside of Autzen Stadium this year, and 12-1 over the last 2 seasons. UO has never lost to TT, winning games in 1991 (in Lubbock), 1992 (in Eugene), and 38-30 in 2023 in Lubbock. This will be another close game, as both have outstanding defenses, but I believe Oregon's offense is better. The Quack Attack wins again!

9 Alabama vs 1 Indiana (CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential- Pasadena, CA)- The Rose Bowl is the oldest of them all. Dubbed "The Grandaddy of Them All", this game began in 1902, but didn't begin to be played continuously until its 2nd iteration in 1916. Indiana is 0-1 in this game, losing in 1968 ('67 season) to #1 USC and a running back by the name of OJ Simpson. Alabama has played more games here than any team not in the Big Ten or Pac 12, and at 5-2-1, has more victories there than all but 6 teams (tied with UCLA). For years, the Rose Bowl paired the champions of the Big Ten and Pac 8/10/12, with the Big Ten 36-40. SEC teams are 11-6, but that includes games by Georgia Tech (1929) and Tulane (1932), both past members of the SEC, but both of those games occurred before there was an SEC (both were members of the bloated Southern Conference before the SEC split off in 1933). Alabama also appeared there before the SEC was formed, 3 times in fact, in 1926 (win), 1927 (tie) and 1931 (win), with their other appearances in 1935 (win), 1938 (loss to #2 Cal), 1946 (win), and 2024 (OT loss to Michigan). This will be Indiana's 2nd CFP game, as they lost at Notre Dame last year in the 1st Round. Bama is in their 9th CFP, more than any other team, and they are 10-5 overall with 3 national titles and 3 of their 5 losses in the finals. The SEC is 20-11 in CFP games with the Big Ten at 12-10. The Hoosiers are only 4-10 (.286) in postseason play, losing their last 7 (since 1993) with their last win in the 1991 Copper Bowl under HC Bill Mallory. The Crimson Tide is 47-29-3 (.611) in the postseason, breaking a 2-game losing streak by topping Oklahoma in the 1st Round. The Tide are 11-3, and have already played more games than any team still in the tournament, so wear-and-tear and fatigue may begin to catch up with them at some point. They have won 3 of their last 4 games this season, and are 5-2 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium. IU, at 13-0, is the only undefeated team still remaining, as they are 24-2 over the last 2 seasons, and have won 9 of their last 11 away from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Not surprisingly, these teams have never met before now. The Hoosiers take it to the Tide and roll them right out of the CFP.

6 Ole Miss vs 3 Georgia (CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl- New Orleans, LA)- The Sugar Bowl was established in 1935, and for many years, featured the SEC champion against a team from the Big Eight, SWC, or major Independent as the opponent. When the Big 12 was formed in 1996, the opponent was often a team from that conference. Georgia is tied with LSU for the 2nd most appearances here (4 behind Alabama) as they are 5-7 in this game. Ole Miss is 4th in appearances at 6-4. The SEC as a conference is 42-39-1, and they are guaranteed to add both a win and a loss with the result of this game, but this is actually the 4th time this game has featured 2 contestants from the SEC. The others were in 1953, 1960, and 1964, and interestingly, all 3 featured Mississippi. The Rebels are 27-16 (.628) in the postseason with their win over Tulane extending their winning streak to 3. UGA is 38-22-3 (.627) and have won 9 of their last 10, and 14 of their last 17,  postseason games. The Dawgs are 12-1, winning their last 9, including the SEC CG over Alabama, and they are 6-0 away from Sanford Stadium this season, with their last road loss in Oxford in 2024. In fact, the Bulldogs have not lost to anyone not named Ole Miss or Alabama in the regular season since 2020 (Florida), though they did lose to Notre Dame in last year's Sugar Bowl. The Rebels are also 12-1, on a 6-game winning streak including a rout of Tulane in the CFP 1st Round, and are 4-1 away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with their only loss in Athens (2 of their last 4 road losses have been there). UGA holds a 34-13-1 lead in the series, but have split the last 4 with Ole Miss, though the 2016 win was vacated. Before that 2016 game, the Bulldogs won 10 in a row between 1997 and 2012. Not sure this game could be much more exciting than their 1st meeting  on October 18, but I suppose it could go into OT. Dawgs win.

Friday, January 2

Rice vs Texas State (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl- Fort Worth, TX)- This bowl has been around since 2003. Rice is 1-0 here, with a win over Air Force in 2012 while this will be TSU's 1st appearance. The American Conference is 3-3 with the Sun Belt 0-1, as JMU lost to Air Force in 2023. The Bobcats are 2-0 in bowl games, winning the First Responder Bowl each of the last 2 years, including 45-21 over this same Rice team in 2023. The Owls are 7-7 in bowls, losing their last 2. Rice is only 5-7 but are playing in a bowl because 3 teams opted out. This is the 2nd time this has happened for the Owls in the last 4 seasons. Rice enters this game on a 2-game losing streak, allowing 108 combined points in those games, and they are 2-3 outside of Rice Stadium in Houston. The Bobcats are 6-6, winning their last 3 to get to bowl eligibility, and are 2-4 away from UFCU Stadium. TSU leads the series 3-2, with wins in 1923, 1986, and the 2023 bowl game discussed earlier. Rice's 2 wins came in 1920 and 1987. All of the games were played in Houston, except the bowl, which was in Dallas. The Bobcats win again.

Navy vs Cincinnati (AutoZone Liberty Bowl- Memphis, TN)- The Liberty Bowl began in 1959, with the 1st 5 games being played in Philadelphia, and then. after a 1-year stopover in Atlantic City, it settled in its current home of Memphis. Navy is 1-1 here (win in 2019 and loss in 1981) and Cincinnati is 1-0 (win in 2011). The American Conference is 4-2 in this bowl, which includes Cincy's win, as they have won their last 2 appearances in 2019 and 2023, but the Big 12 is only 4-8, losing each of the last 3 years. The Bearcats are 9-12 in bowl games, losing their last 3, while the Midshipmen are 13-11-1 in bowls, winning their last 3 (since 2017). Navy is 10-2, their 1st time ever winning 10+ games in back-to-back seasons, and ended the season on a 3-game winning binge, including claiming the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Midshipmen were 3-2 away from Annapolis. Cincy is only 7-5, on a 4-game losing skid, and were 2-3 away from Nippert Stadium. Navy wins.

Arizona vs SMU (Trust & Will Holiday Bowl- San Diego, CA)- The Holiday Bowl started in 1978, and SMU is 0-1 in this game (loss in 1980 to BYU in a 46-45 classic!) while Arizona is 1-1, beating Nebraska in 1998 and losing to Nebraska in 2009. Only 3 times in the history of the Holiday Bowl have both teams been unranked (1978, 1992, and 2011), and both teams have been ranked 19 times, with teams ranked as high as #4 (Cal in 2004) participating. Big 12 teams are 11-7 here, but are making their 1st appearance since 2013, but the Pac 12 was 9-19. The ACC is 1-2, losing in 2022 and 2023, and winning last year, and the Southwest Conference was 2-1, with SMU being the lone loss. The Wildcats are 9-3, winning their last 5, and they are 3-2 away from Arizona Stadium (winning their last 3). The Mustangs are 8-4, winning 3 of their last 4 to fall just short of a repeat appearance in the ACC CG, but were just 3-3 outside of Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Each team has one win in the series, with SMU nabbing theirs in 1938 in Dallas and UA getting their win in 1985 in Tucson. Wildcats win.

Wake Forest vs Mississippi State (Duke's Mayo Bowl- Charlotte, NC)- This bowl has been around since 2002, beginning as the Continental Tire Bowl (2002-2004), then cycling through the Meineke Car Care Bowl (2005-2010), the Belk Bowl (2011-2019), and then finally the Duke's Mayo Bowl, where the winning HC gets a mayo bath! WF is 2-1 here, and this game will tie them with NC State for 2nd-most appearances in this bowl, just 2 behind UNC. MSU is 1-0, winning back in 2015. The Bulldogs are 15-11 in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 3, while the Demon Deacons are 11-6, winning their last 2. MSU is only 5-7, another one of those teams benefitting from team opt-outs, but they are on a 3-game slide, and are just 2-3 away from Davis Wade Stadium. WF is 8-4, winning 3 of their last 4, and 3-2 outside of Truist Field. The Bulldogs own a 23-17 victory in the 2011 Music City Bowl over the Deacons. MSU wins a close one.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back next week for more bowl picks!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!