Paul's Picks Bowls Part III
Welcome Back!
Since starting 10-2, I've since gone 8-5 (a decent-for bowl season- 61.5%) to bring my overall bowl record to 18-7, which is 72%. With 17 games remaining (that includes the NC Game), I only need to win 5 to finish above .500! But I will definitely NOT hatch my chickens before they're counted, to ruin a saying. And so far, I've been able to watch at least a portion of every bowl game played. I think I've even figured out how to watch the one on Barstool Sports!
Anyway, here is how the conferences are doing so far. As you can see, no one conference is really dominating, though the ACC and Pac 12 are off to good starts, but remember, the Sun Belt started 3-0 and look how they ended up. And though the SEC and Big 12 are both 1-3, that's also how the AAC and CUSA started. The P5 conferences have the majority of the matchups still to come, as only 3 G5 teams have yet to play. The Big Ten has only played 1 game so far. At the end of bowl season, I will update the conference standings.
As I'm sure you know, bowls are notoriously difficult to pick, especially lately. This is because of all of the coaching changes, with interims coaching bowls in some cases, all of the opt-outs as athletes prepare for the NFL Draft, and all of the players entering the transfer portal who will not be available. And then of course there are the "normal" things like injuries, motivation (or lack thereof) for each team, and the long layoffs for many teams and how that affects them. And now this year, Redshirts can play even if they've reached their maximum of 4 games played! All I'm saying is that this is mostly just guesses, even more so than during the regular season. But it's still fun to do anyway!
One of the fun aspects of bowls is that it pairs teams that have rarely, if ever, played before, and this season seems to have a lot of those matchups.
On to the picks!
Thursday December 29
Syracuse vs Minnesota (Pinstripe Bowl in Bronx, NY)- The Golden Gophers lead the series 3-2, but the Orange won the last meeting, 21-17 in the 2013 Texas Bowl. Syracuse will have made more appearances in the Pinstripe Bowl than any other team after this game, as they won the inaugural game in 2010, and also won in 2012. Minnesota has never played in this bowl, but the Big Ten is 6-1 in these games. The Orange is 16-9-1 in bowls, winning their last 4, and 6 of their last 7. The Gophers are 10-12 in bowls, winning their last 5. Syracuse is 7-5, losing 5 of their last 6, but did win their last game over Boston College. Minnesota is 8-4, winning 4 of their last 5, their only loss to Iowa in that stretch. UM wins.
Oklahoma vs FSU (Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando, FL)- The Sooners lead the series 6-1, including 3-1 in bowl games. FSU won the 1965 Gator Bowl, and OU won the Orange Bowl meetings in 1980, 1981, and 2001. FSU is 3-0 in this bowl, winning in the inaugural 1990 Blockbuster Bowl, the 2008 Champs Sports Bowl, and the 2011 CS Bowl. Oklahoma is 0-1, losing in the 2014 Russell Athletic Bowl. The Sooners are 6-6, losing 3 of their last 4, with only a win over rival Oklahoma State in that stretch. The Seminoles are 9-3, winning their last 5 in a row. This looks like a mismatch to me. FSU wins big.
Texas vs Washington (Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX)- The Longhorns lead the series 3-1, but it's tied 1-1 in bowl games, with UW winning the 1979 Sun Bowl and UT winning the 2001 Holiday Bowl, their last 2 meetings. Texas has more appearances in the Alamo Bowl than any other team, and this appearance will extend that lead. They are 4-1 in this bowl that began in 1993, winning in 2006, 2012, 2019, and 2020, and losing in 2013. Washington is 0-1, losing 67-56 to Baylor in 2011. The Big 12 is 15-11 in this game; the Pac 12 is 5-9. The Longhorns are 31-24-2 in bowls, winning 4 in a row, and 13 of their last 17. The Huskies are 18-20-1 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4. UT is 8-4, winning 3 of their last 4, with their loss to TCU. UW is 10-2, and on a 6-game winning streak, the longest in the nation behind Michigan and UGA. Huskies win.
Friday December 30
Maryland vs NC State (Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, NC)- This will be the 71st meeting between these old ACC foes, but they haven't played since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014. The series is tied 33-33-4, but UM holds a 9-5 edge since 2000. NC State is 2-1 in this bowl, winning the 2005 Meineke Car Car Bowl and the 2011 Belk Bowl, and losing the 2015 Belk Bowl. This is Maryland's 1st appearance. The ACC is 10-10 in this bowl, and the Big Ten is 1-0. The Terrapins are 12-14-2 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4, but winning last year over Va Tech. The Wolfpack are 17-15-1 in bowls, losing their last 2. Maryland is 7-5, losing 3 of their last 4, but winning their last game over Rutgers. Their only win over a team with a winning record was over SMU, as their conference wins were over Mich State, Indiana, Northwestern, and the aforementioned Rutgers. NC State is 8-4, losing 2 of their last 3, but winning their last game over rival UNC. They have wins over bowl teams ECU, Texas Tech, UConn, FSU, Wake Forest, and UNC. The Wolfpack will defeat the Terps in a close game.
Pittsburgh vs UCLA (Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX)- The Bruins lead the series 9-5, but all the games occurred between 1958 and 1972, as they played every year for those 14 years, but never played before or since. The Sun Bowl is one of the oldest bowl games, having been played since 1935, and these teams are tied for 4th by making their 5th appearance this year. UCLA is 3-1, winning in 1991, 2005, and 2013, and losing in 2000. Pitt is 2-2, winning in 1975 and 1989, and losing in 2008 and 2018. The Panthers are 14-22 in bowls, losing 7 of their last 9, including last year, and will be trying to win a bowl outside of Detroit for the 1st time since 2010. The Bruins are 16-19-1 in bowls, losing 8 of their last 12, including their last 2. Pitt is 8-4, winning 4 consecutive to close out their regular season, and 3 of their 4 losses were to bowl teams. UCLA is 9-3, losing 2 of their last 3, with 2 of their 3 losses to bowl teams, and will be trying to achieve 10 wins for the 1st time since 2014. These appear to be 2 evenly matched teams, but I'm going with the Panthers.
Notre Dame vs South Carolina (Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL)- The Fighting Irish lead the series 3-1, with the Gamecocks winning the most recent matchup, but all the games were played between 1976 and 1984. SC will be making their 5th appearance in this game; they are 0-4, losing in the inaugural game in 1946, 1980, 1984 and 1987, the 1st as a member of the Southern Conference, the latter 3 as an Independent. ND is 1-2, winning in 1976, and losing in 1999 and 2003. The SEC is 28-14-1 in the Gator Bowl; Independents are 9-12-2 (which includes ND's 1-2 and SC's 0-3). The Irish are 19-21 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4, and this is their 6th year in a row to appear in a bowl. The Gamecocks are 10-14 in bowls, winning 6 of their last 8, including last year. ND is 8-4, and won 5 of their last 6, but lost to USC in their finale. SC is also 8-4, and won 3 of their last 4, including wins over Tennessee and Clemson in their last 2. The Irish will be without starting QB Drew Pyne, who is transferring. Gamecocks win.
Ohio vs Wyoming (Arizona Bowl in Tucson, AZ)- The Cowboys lead this series 2-0, winning in 2007 and 2008, and who had any idea that these teams would have ever met before? Wyoming is 1-0 in the Arizona Bowl, having won in 2019, but this is Ohio's 1st appearance. The MWC is 4-3 in this bowl and the MAC is 1-0. The Bobcats are 5-8 in bowls, winning their last 3; the Cowboys are 9-8, also winners of their last 3. Ohio is 9-4, their loss in the MAC Championship Game breaking a 7-game winning streak, and all their other losses were on the road, 2 to P5 teams. Wyoming is 7-5, losing their last 2, with all 5 of their losses to fellow bowl teams, 3 of which who have already won (Illinois has yet to play). Cowboys win.
Tennessee vs Clemson (Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, FL)- You've probably already realized this, but there is going to be an awful lot of orange in the stands and on the field at the Orange Bowl this year! The Volunteers lead the series 11-6-2, with the Tigers winning the only bowl matchup, 27-14 in the 2004 Peach Bowl. The teams played 12 times between 1901 and 1920, with the series tied at 5-5-2 at that point (Clemson led 3-0-2 after the 1st 5), but UT won all 3 games played in the 30s, the one played in 1944, and the 2 played in the 70s. Clemson is 4-2 in the Orange Bowl, winning in 1951, 1982 (for their 1st National Championship), 2014, and 2015, and losing in 1957 and 2012. UT is 1-3, winning in 1939, and losing in 1947, 1968, and 1998, so it's been 34 years since they've been to Miami. The SEC is 21-17 in the Orange Bowl, the ACC is 11-16. The Vols are 29-25 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5. The Tigers are 26-22, winning 8 of their last 10, not counting CFP Championship Games- if you count those, they've won 10 of 14, but lost 2 of their last 3. This is the 18th consecutive year Clemson has been to a bowl. UT is 10-2, but both losses came in their last 4 games. CU is 11-2, also with both losses in their last 4 regular season games, but they did defeat UNC in the ACC Championship Game, Interestingly, they both lost to South Carolina in the last 2 weeks of the season. Call it a hunch, but I think the Vols pull this off, based on the experience of backup QB Joe Milton vs Clemson backup QB Cade Klubnik, who is a true freshman and has limited experience.
Saturday, December 31
Alabama vs Kansas State (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)- This is a 1st ever meeting between these 2 schools. KSU has never appeared in the Sugar Bowl, but Alabama has played in more than any other team, as they are 9-7, winning in 1962, 1964, 1967, 1975, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1993, and 2018, and losing in 1945, 1948, 1973, 1990, 2009, 2014, and 2015. The SEC is 41-38-1 in the Sugar Bowl; the Big 12 is 4-4. The Crimson Tide is 45-27-3 in bowls, winning their last 7, not including CFP Championship Games- if you include those, they are 10-3. This is the 19th consecutive year the Tide has been in a bowl, every year since 2004. The Wildcats are 10-13 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4. Bama is 10-2, winning their last 3, and their 2 losses were by a combined 4 points, but they have no wins against a team with more than 8 wins. KSU is 10-3, winning their last 4 in a row, including over undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their losses were to 11-2 Tulane by 7, to TCU in mid-season, and to Texas by 7, two of those at home. A win here would give them their 1st 11-win season since 2012. My heart says one thing, my head says another. Usually I go with my head, but since it's the end of the year, and it's all for fun anyway, this time I'll go with my heart. KSU wins!
Iowa vs Kentucky (Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN)- The only time these 2 have met was in last year's Citrus Bowl, won 20-17 by Kentucky. This is Iowa's 1st appearance in this bowl, but UK has double the appearances of any other team, as they are 2-3, winning in 2006 and 2007, and losing in 1999, 2009, and 2017. The SEC is 9-13 here, the Big Ten 4-4. The Hawkeyes are 17-16-1 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4, and this is their 10th year in a row to be invited to a bowl. The Wildcats are 12-9 in bowls, winning 4 straight, and this is their 7th consecutive bowl. Iowa is 7-5, winning 4 of their last 5, but the loss to Nebraska in their finale cost them the Big Ten West title. UK is also 7-5, losing 2 of their last 3, but did beat rival Louisville in their finale. Iowa ran fewer plays (724) than any other P5 team, and UK wasn't much faster, running 744 plays. Expect a game much like last year, with both teams struggling to score, but I'm going with the Wildcats to make it 2-0 against the Hawkeyes.
TCU vs Michigan (Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ)- This will be a 1st ever meeting between these 2 schools. This is the 2nd appearance in the Fiesta Bowl for each team, with Michigan winning 27-23 over Nebraska in 1986 and TCU losing 17-10 to Boise State in 2010. The Big Ten is 8-4 in this bowl, while the Big 12 is 7-7. The Horned Frogs are 17-6-1 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5; the Wolverines are 21-28 in bowls, losing their last 5, and 7 of their last 8. TCU is 12-1, losing to Kansas State in a rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game in OT, but they've lived on the edge all season, as they have 5 wins by 8 points or less, and several comebacks from double-digit deficits. Michigan is 13-0, but only has 2 wins by 7 points or less, as 10 wins were by 21 points or more. If the Wolverines are able to get a lead, I feel they'll have the advantage. If the Horned Frogs can keep it close, they'll have the advantage, having played so many more close games than UM has. The question is, which kind of game will it be? I've gone out on a limb a lot lately, but on this one, I'll make the safe choice. Michigan wins.
Ohio State vs Georgia (Peach Bowl in Atlanta, GA)- These teams have met only one other time, in the 1993 Citrus Bowl, won 21-14 by Georgia. OSU will be making their 1st appearance in the Peach Bowl, but UGA is 4-2, winning in 1973, 1998, 2006, and 2021, and losing in 1989 and 1995. The Buckeyes are 27-27 in bowls, winning 6 of their last 8, not including CFP Championship Games- 7 of 10 if you include them- and this is their 10th year in a row in a bowl. The Bulldogs are 35-21-3 in bowls, winning 7 of their last 8, not including CFP CGs- 8 of 10 with them- and they are playing in their 26th consecutive bowl game, the longest streak in college football. The last time they didn't play in a bowl was in 1996, and since Vince Dooley arrived in 1964, they have been to 50 bowl games in 60 years (winning 29, a .580 winning pct.), encompassing 5 head coaches (6 if you include interims). OSU is 11-1, losing their last game to Michigan, and their closest win was by 11 points over Notre Dame in their opener. UGA is 13-0, with only 1 win by less than 10 points, but that doesn't mean they haven't been challenged, as several teams have played their best game against the Bulldogs. I expect a highly competitive game, but the Dawgs will pull away in the 2nd half. Dawgs win to set up a rematch of last year's semifinal with Michigan in this year's CFP final.
Monday, January 2
Mississippi State vs Illinois (ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, FL)- This series is tied at one win apiece, with Illinois winning in 1923, and MSU winning in 1980, with both games being played in Champaign. Both teams are 0-1 in this game, with Illinois losing 30-0 to Clemson in the 1991 Hall of Fame Bowl, and MSU losing 27-22 to Iowa in the 2019 Outback Bowl. The SEC is 19-13 in this bowl, while the Big Ten is 13-20. The Bulldogs are 14-11 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4, and this is their 13th consecutive bowl; The Fighting Illini are 8-11 in bowls, losing their last 2. MSU comes in at 8-4, winning 3 of their last 4, with their loss to Georgia in that span. Illinois comes in 8-4, losing 3 of their last 4, but beating Northwestern in their finale. The wild card in this is how the Bulldogs will respond to losing HC Mike Leach to complications from a heart attack soon after the season ended, and how new HC Zach Arnett, the former DC, handles the transition into the position and the grief of the staff and players. The Illini have one of the best defenses in the country, but have struggled on offense at times, especially late in the season. MSU wins, but it won't be on emotion alone, as that will only last so long.
Tulane vs USC (Cotton Bowl Classic in Arlington, TX)- The Trojans lead this series 2-1, winning in the 1932 Rose Bowl and in 1946 in New Orleans, and losing in 1942 in Los Angeles. This is Tulane's 1st appearance in the Cotton Bowl Classic, but USC is 1-1, winning in 1995 over Texas Tech and losing in 2017 to Ohio State. The Green Wave are 6-8 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3; the Trojans are 35-20, also winning 2 of their last 3. Tulane is 11-2 and has won 8 of their last 9, including 3 in a row, and both of their losses were at home. USC is also 11-2, but had a 5-game winning streak snapped in the Pac 12 Championship Game, as both of their losses were to Utah. The Trojans have a high powered offense and not much defense, but the Green Wave held Kansas State to 10 points, and SMU to 24, and scored 42+ five times, and 31+ seven times. I may be crazy, but I think Tulane's defense does just enough to stop the Trojans, and USC can't stop the Wave at all. As long as they limit turnovers, Tulane wins, as I don't think USC has their heart in this game.
LSU vs Purdue (Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL)- This is a 1st-time meeting between these 2 teams, and I think everyone on the 2-deep for each team is opting out or in the transfer portal. Just kidding. It only seems that way. LSU is 2-3 in this bowl, winning in the 1979 Tangerine Bowl and the 2016 Citrus Bowl, and losing in the 2005 Capital One Bowl, the 2010 Capital One Bowl, and the 2018 Citrus Bowl. Purdue is 0-1, losing in the 2004 Capital One Bowl in OT (to Georgia). The SEC is 23-14-1 in this bowl, and the Big Ten is 13-17. The Tigers are 28-24-1 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 6- 5 of 7 if you count the CFP National Championship Game; the Boilermakers are 11-9 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3. The Bayou Bengals come in at 9-4, winning 5 of their last 7, but losing their last 2 to Texas A&M and to UGA in the SECCG. Purdue is 8-5, winning 3 of their last 4, with their loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. With Purdue star QB Aiden O'Connell not playing, the Fighting Tigers will roll, though star WR Kayshon Boutte also won't play.
Penn State vs Utah (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)- The last bowl game of the 2022 season features 2 teams that have never played before. Penn State is 1-3 in the Rose Bowl, winning in 1995 and losing in 1923, 2009 and 2017. Utah is 0-1, losing last year to Ohio State. The Big Ten is 33-39 in all Rose Bowl games; the Pac 12 is 52-45-3. The Nittany Lions are 30-19-2 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3; The Utes are 17-7 in bowls, losing 3 straight. PSU is 10-2, winning their last 4 in a row, and their only losses are to CFP participants Michigan and Ohio State, and they played just 1 game decided by less than 10 points (35-31 over Purdue in their season opener). Utah is 10-3, winning 6 of 7, including the Pac 12 Championship Game over USC, and their loss in that span was to 10-2 Oregon. I feel like Utah is just a little more "battle tested". Utes win.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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