Conference Call 2-6-23
Welcome Back!
We are about halfway through a 3-year process of conference realignment. In case you missed my previous blogs, here is what has happened so far, and what is scheduled to happen in the future.
Last year, the Sun Belt expanded by adding Marshall and Southern Miss from CUSA, and JMU from the FCS ranks.
This year, the Big 12 expands by adding Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF from the AAC, and BYU from the ranks of the Independents. The AAC will be adding Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA from CUSA, basically gutting that conference. In response, CUSA is adding Liberty and New Mexico State from the Independent ranks, and Jacksonville State and Sam Houston from FCS. Kennesaw State is scheduled to join in 2024.
In 2024, the Big Ten is adding USC and UCLA from the Pac 12.
In 2025, the SEC is adding Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12, unless an earlier departure can be negotiated. As has been reported elsewhere, an early UT and OU departure from the Big 12 is looking less and less likely.
There is also a "new" conference that may join in 2024, consisting of FCS members of the WAC and Atlantic Sun, but I consider the likelihood of this happening to be extremely low, but the chance is not zero. Should that happen, there would then be 144 FBS teams in the 2025 season! And if the MWC adds teams from the FCS, there would be even more...
Further expansion is also possible, as the Pac 12 and/or the MWC could add teams. It's even possible that some conferences could be absorbed by others, or 2 conferences could merge to become one, which would reduce the number of conferences (expansion and contraction all at once!). Or there could be movement no one expects.
As far as divisional play is concerned, the Pac 12 eliminated divisions for this past season, and the ACC and MWC will be eliminating divisions for the 2023 season and beyond.
The Big Ten and SEC have not announced whether they will continue with divisional play when their new teams join, but at this point, they will have divisions for the foreseeable future.
Should the SEC and Big Ten eliminate divisions, the only conferences playing with divisions would be the MAC and the Sun Belt, unless they decide to change their scheduling models. However, the SBC seems pretty happy with their setup, and even consider it one of their strengths.
There are advantages and disadvantages to divisions. On the one hand, more teams are in play to win a division later in a season than would be in play to get one of the top 2 seeds. Another advantage is that the tiebreakers tend to be less complicated. For example, in a 16-team Big Ten without divisions, it would be entirely possible for 3 teams to each finish 9-0 without facing each other, or 8-1 with each team defeating and losing to each of the other 2, making it difficult to choose the 2 "best" teams. On the other hand, it eliminates the chances of an 8-4 team winning a division and upsetting a 12-0 (or 11-1 or 10-2) team in the conference championship game. And as we saw in the Big Ten West last fall, division tiebreakers can get quite complicated in their own right!
Many people feel that we are headed to 2 "Super" Conferences: The Big Ten and the SEC. The expectation is that those 2 conferences will continue to expand until they break off and form their own division of college football, as the other teams will be unable to keep up with the money involved. This is a distinct possibility, and has been explored thoroughly elsewhere, but I think there is one other path that could happen.
What if instead of continued expansion, the conferences start choosing sides? A series of alliances could lead to an NFL-AFL type of setup (or perhaps an NFC-AFC setup would be a more accurate description). I could see a world where the SEC, ACC, Big 12, CUSA, and SBC would have their own playoff (like the NFC) and the Big Ten, Pac 12, MWC, AAC, and MAC would have their own playoff, and then the winners would play in their own "Super Bowl".
You would basically have a 16-team playoff: each conference gets their champion, and you get 3 "Wild Cards" (or at-large, if you prefer) on each side, which would most likely come from the Big Ten and SEC (probably 1-2 each), with maybe 1 each from the ACC and the Pac 12. Or, it could be that only 3-4 conference champions get in each side, with 4-5 at-large bids per side. And like other sports, it could be decided by record, and not by a committee.
At any rate, it is clear we are in a transition era in college football, and there are still changes to come.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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