College Football Preview Part X

Welcome Back!

Breaking: Colorado is moving BACK to the Big 12, starting in the 2024 season. In my opinion, this is where they belong, as the Pac 12 always seemed like an odd fit for the Buffs. It is unknown at this time if any other Pac 12 teams (Arizona? Arizona State? Utah?) will be following the Buffalos into the Big 12. It is also unknown how the Pac 12 will react. Will they expand by adding San Diego State (they'll have to wait until 2025 to start playing, most likely), and/or SMU? Will Washington and Oregon look to move to the Big Ten? So many questions...

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming...

Welcome to my annual College Football Preview! If you haven't read these before, here are how they work. I will preview 10 teams per day (except for the 1st 2 days, I will do 12 and then 11, because there are 133 teams) until I get to the top 20, and then I will do 5 teams per day, culminating in the Top 5 on Friday, August 4. This will take 3 weeks to complete. When those are finished, I will spend 2 weeks previewing each conference and making my conference picks. You can expect these to appear between 5 and 6 pm each day through July 27, and then I will begin posting them between 9 and 10 am beginning July 28.

I hope you enjoy these previews! Feel free to leave a comment, or even a suggestion on how I could make these better for next year.

In Part I, I gave details on how these previews are set up (check it out if you missed it. Today, I am previewing #s 40-31.

40- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 8-5/3-5

Coach: Dave Clawson (10th year, 15th overall FBS)

3-year record/rank: 23-13/.639/T31 (+1)

6-year record/rank: 46-29/.613/36 (+4)

10-year record/rank: 63-61/.508/T72 (+5)

Last League Title: 2006

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2015 (T10th longest bowl streak)

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 36.1 ppg- T16th/T1st ACC

Rushing: 130.5 ypg- 93rd/9th

Passing: 311.9 ypg- 9th/1st

Total: 442.4 ypg- 30th/3rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 28.3 ppg- 82nd/11th

Rushing: 136.8 ypg- 46th/7th

Passing: 269.7 ypg- 115th/13th

Total: 406.5 ypg- 93rd/13th

TO Margin: -3/-0.23/gm- T85th/10th

A good season means… a 3rd straight winning season, an 8th straight bowl, and a top 3rd finish in the ACC. Their OOC games are mostly easy- FCS Elon, Vandy (won 45-25 on the road last year), and at ODU to start their year, but then they play at Notre Dame in their penultimate game. In the ACC they avoid UNC, Miami, Louisville, Boston College, and Virginia, so they’ll play most of the expected contenders, with Clemson, Duke, and Syracuse on the road, and Pitt, FSU, and NC State at home. If their QB play can remain top notch, and if their defense can improve even just a little, especially in the area of turnovers, then another 8- or 9-win season is possible.

A disappointing season means… only 6 or 7 wins, and a middle 3rd finish in the ACC. The expectations have risen so much in Winston-Salem that fans are no longer satisfied with just making a bowl; they expect more.

Notes: WF has had consecutive winning ACC records for the 1st time since 2006-07; WF has been to 7 straight bowls, longest streak in program history, winning 5; while Sam Hartman has moved on to ND, QB Mitch Griffis (348 yds, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 70.7% completions) returns for his 4th year; K Matthew Dennis (12-14 FGs, long of 46 yds) and P Ivan Mora (40.8 avg, 36.2 net) both return; WF had the 3rd worst touchback percentage on kickoffs (17.2%); defense allowed 30+ points 7 times, and forced only 16 turnovers; offense scored TDs on 67.2% of red zone trips (45-67); offense has averaged over 30 ppg each of the last 6 years (only team in ACC); offense returns 5 starters, and defense returns 6; the Demon Deacons lost 4 of their last 6, but won 2 of their last 3, including their bowl over Missouri; 3 of their 5 losses were by 7 points or less, including in OT to Clemson, and another was by 9; only 1 of their 8 wins was by 10 points or less; WF has had a winning season in 6 of the last 7 years, with 2020 being the exception (4-5 with a bowl loss); the Demon Deacons have been to 11 bowl games in the last 17 years, winning 7; WF has been playing football since 1908 and had their 1st season of 10+ wins in 2006 (11-3) under HC Jim Grobe (Orange Bowl loss), and matched that 11-3 record in 2021 (Gator Bowl win) under current HC Clawson; the Deacons were 1st ranked in the final AP Poll in 1945 under HC D.C. Walker at #19 (5-3-1, Gator Bowl win), and he led them to a #20 finish in 1948 (6-4, Dixie Bowl loss); in 1992, they were #25 in HC Bill Dooley’s last year (8-4, Independence Bowl win), and then in 2006 were #18 under HC Grobe (11-3) and finished #15 in 2021 under current HC Clawson (11-3), their highest finish ever.

39- Tulane Green Wave 12-2/7-1

Coach: Willie Fritz (8th year, 10th overall FBS)

3-year record/rank: 20-18/.526/T72 (+24)

6-year record/rank: 39-37/.513/T69 (+30)

10-year record/rank: 56-69/.448/88 (+22)

Last League Title: 2022

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2021

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 36.0 ppg- 19th/3rd AAC

Rushing: 204.8 ypg- 20th/3rd

Passing: 236.6 ypg- 61st/9th

Total: 441.4 ypg- 31st/5th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 22.2 ppg- 33rd/2nd

Rushing: 152.3 ypg- 69th/5th

Passing: 208.1 ypg- 37th/4th

Total: 360.4 ypg- 47th/3rd

TO Margin: +4/+0.29/gm- T44th/4th

A good season means… a repeat of last season- double digit wins, winning the AAC, and another bowl game, preferably in the NY6. This is possible because UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston are all gone. This will be difficult because star RB Tyjae Spears is also gone. Their OOC games are certainly not easy, but neither were last year’s, when they went 3-1 with a win over Big 12 champ Kansas State. This year they play South Alabama, Ole Miss, at Southern Miss (lost 27-24 at home last year), and FCS Nicholls. In the AAC, they miss SMU, Navy, Temple, Charlotte, and USF. They must play Memphis, ECU and FAU on the road while getting UAB and UTSA at home, the latter as the last game of the season. This looks like a team that should win 9 or 10 games in the regular season, but a lot will depend on if anyone steps up in the running game and on defense.

A disappointing season means… last year was a mirage and not the start of something good, and the Green Wave slips back into the mediocrity of 5 to 7 wins, something they had done the 4 years before going 2-10, and then 12-2, the last 2 years.

Notes: QB Michael Pratt (3,009 yds, 27 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.6% completions, 478 yds rushing, 3.7 ypc, 10 TDs) returns for a 4th season as a starter; OL returns 4 starters; defense loses its top 5 tacklers; offense averaged the 2nd most ppg in school history; K Valentino Ambrosio (11-12 FGs, long of 47 yds) and P Casey Glover (41.8 avg, 37.7 net) both return; Tulane won their last 4, including the AAC Championship Game and the Cotton Bowl over USC; 4 of their 12 wins were by 7 points or less, as were both of their losses; the Green Wave have been to 4 bowls in the last 5 years (winning 3), and ended the season ranked in the AP Poll (#9) for the 1st time since 1998 (12-0 and #7) under HC Tommy Bowden; before that 1998 season, Tulane had only had 2 seasons of 10+ wins, 11-1 in 1931 under HC Bernie Bierman, and 10-1 in 1934 under HC Ted Cox, when they were also 8-0 in the SEC, one of only 2 times they were undefeated in SEC play, the other being 5-0 in 1939, before they left the conference to become in Independent before the 1966 season; the Green Wave 1st appeared in the final AP Poll in 1938 (7-2-1) and 1939 (8-1-1 with a Sugar Bowl loss) when they finished # 19 and #5, respectively, under HC Red Dawson; HC Harry Frnka led the team to 2 finishes in the final poll at #13 in 1948 (9-1) and #20 in 1950 (6-2-1), and then their next appearances were in 1970 (8-4 and #17 under HC Jim Pittman with a Liberty Bowl win), in 1973 (9-3 and #20 under HC Bennie Ellender with a Bluebonnet Bowl loss), in 1998 (12-0 and #7 under HC Tommy Bowden with Chris Scelfo coaching the Liberty Bowl win), and last year (12-2 and #9 under current HC Willie Fritz with a Cotton Bowl win over USC).

38- Kentucky Wildcats 7-6/3-5

Coach: Mark Stoops (11th year, 11th overall)

3-year record/rank: 22-15/.595/T43 (-8)

6-year record/rank: 47-29/.618/T34 (+1)

10-year record/rank: 66-59/.528/T64 (+10)

Last League Title: 1976 co-champs

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2015 (T10th longest bowl streak)

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 20.4 ppg- 112th/14th SEC

Rushing: 116.2 ypg- 108th/13th

Passing: 208.5 ypg- 95th/12th

Total: 324.7 ypg- 116th/14th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 19.2 ppg- 13th/3rd

Rushing: 140.6 ypg- 49th/6th

Passing: 170.8 ypg- 7th/2nd

Total: 311.4 ypg- 12th/2nd

TO Margin: -2/-0.15/gm- T80th/T10th

A good season means… winning 8+ games, making an 8th consecutive bowl, and finishing no lower than 3rd in the SEC East, which means a winning SEC record. Their OOC games are ridiculously easy- Ball State, FCS E Kentucky, and Akron- until you get to their season ending rivalry game vs Louisville, this year on the road. But the Cats will be trying to extend a 4-game winning streak against the Cardinals, and if the ball bounces their way, could be getting ready for the final SEC Championship Game featuring East vs West. But let’s look at their conference schedule to see if that’s possible. Their crossover games are at Miss State and Alabama (meaning they’re only one of 3 teams in the country to play both UGA and Bama- Ole Miss and Auburn being the others, who play them every year), and their road division games are Vandy, Georgia, and SC, which gives them Florida, Mizzou, and Tennessee at home. There’s a path, but it would involve beating the Dawgs on the road, and winning all the rest of their division games, while going no worse than 1-1 against the West, assuming UGA has no other SEC losses. Possible? Yes. Probable? No, but the Wildcats could certainly get to 8 or 9 wins, and with a bowl win, possibly to their 3rd 10-win season in their last 6.

A disappointing season means… another 6 or 7 win season, another 4th place or lower finish in the SEC, and another blowout loss to UT. Adding insult to injury would be a loss to Louisville.

Notes: QB will most likely be NC State transfer Devin Leary (1,265 yds, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 61.1% completions); OC Liam Coen returns after a year as OC for the LA Rams; both K and P will be new, but K will likely be Ga Southern transfer Alex Raynor (18-20 FGs, long of 46 yds); offense allowed 47 sacks (3.62/game- 127th FBS, last SEC); WR Barion Brown was a 4th Team All-American as a kick returner(27.5 avg KR, 1 TD), and a Freshman All-American; HC Stoops is the all-time winningest coach at UK with 66 wins, surpassing Bear Bryant, who had 60 from 1946-53; offense returns 10 starters, defense returns 5; the Wildcats lost 3 of their last 4, including a shutout loss to Iowa in their bowl game; 2 of their 6 losses were by 3 points or less, and 2 of their 7 wins were by 8 points or less; UK has played in 7 straight bowls, winning 4, and 12 bowls i the last 17 years, winning 7; before HC Stoops arrived, UK had only had 2 seasons of 10+ wins: 11-1 in 1950 under HC Bear Bryant (win in Sugar Bowl), and 10-1 in 1977 under HC Fran Curci (6-0 in SEC but was ineligible to win the conference, but it remains as their only undefeated record in the SEC); HC Stoops has had 2 seasons of 10 wins: 10-3 in both 2018 and 2021, with a Citrus Bowl win at the end of each season; the Wildcats finished in the final AP Poll for 5 straight years under HC Bear Bryant between 1949-1953, with a high of #7 in 1950 (see above), then finished #18 in ‘76 (8-4 with a Peach Bowl win) and #6 in ‘77 (10-1) under HC Fran Curci, followed by #19 in 1984 under HC Jerry Claiborne (9-3 with a Hall of Fame Classic win), and finally #12 in 2018 and #18 in 2021, their most recent 10-3 seasons.

37- BYU Cougars 8-5

Coach: Kalani Sitake (8th year, 8th overall)

3-year record/rank: 26-9/.763/T9 (+5)

6-year record/rank: 47-30/.610/38 (-7)

10-year record/rank: 81-48/.628/30 (+1)

Last League Title: 2007 Mountain West Conference

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2017

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 31.3 ppg- 44th

Rushing: 176.6 ypg- 49th

Passing: 249.7 ypg- 49th

Total: 426.3 ypg- 36th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 29.5 ppg- 97th

Rushing: 173.8 ypg- 98th

Passing: 234.3 ypg- 82nd

Total: 408.1 ypg- 94th

TO Margin: +2/+0.15/gm- T54th

A good season means… winning 6+ and making a bowl game. Any higher expectation may be asking too much for their 1st year in a P5 conference. Their OOC schedule starts out easy enough- new FBS member Sam Houston and FCS Southern Utah, but then they play at Arkansas before opening up play in their new conference. In the Big 12, they miss playing Kansas St, Baylor, UCF, and Houston, but they have 5 road games: at Kansas, TCU, Texas, WVU, and OSU, with Cincinnati, TTU, ISU and Oklahoma at home. That’s a pretty rough schedule, and I just don’t see more than 6 wins there, and I’m not sure I see that many. 

A disappointing season means… a losing season, their 1st since 2017, and a bottom 3rd finish in the Big 12, but maybe that shouldn’t be disappointing. It may take a few years to build up the depth needed to play 9 to 10 P5 opponents every year.

Notes: This is the 1st year for BYU in the Big 12, and the 1st year in a conference since their last year in the Mountain West (2010); QB will probably be Pitt/USC transfer Kedon Slovis (2,397 yds, 10 TDs, 9 INTs, 58.4% completions); K will be new, but P Ryan Rehkow (46.2 avg, 42.1 net) returns; defense had only 15 sacks (1.15/game), which was 130th FBS; offense returns 8 starters, and defense returns 7; the Cougars are on a 4-game winning streak, including a bowl win over SMU; 3 of 8 wins were by 6 points or less, and 2 of 5 losses were by 8 points or less; BYU has been to 17 bowls in the last 18 years (since 2005), missing in 2017, and have won 10 of those; the Cougars have had 18 seasons of 10+ wins, all since 1979: 10 were under HC LaVell Edwards in 1979-1981, 1983-1985, 1989-90, 1994, and 1996, with 14-1 in ‘96 and 13-0 in ‘84 his best marks (12-1 once, 11-1 twice, 11-2 once, 11-3 once, and 10-3 three times), and HC Gary Crowton was 12-2 in 2001, with HC Bronco Mendenhall having 5 over a 6-year span between 2006-2011 (11-2 three times, 10-3 twice), and current HC Kalani Sitake leading the team to 11-1 in 2020 and 10-3 in 2021; HC Edwards led the Cougars to 12 finishes in the final AP Poll between 1977 and 1996, with 3 in the Top 10, including #7 in 1983 (11-1, Holiday Bowl win), #1 in 1984 (13-0, Holiday Bowl win), and #5 in 1996 (14-1, Cotton Bowl win), with a #25 finish in 2001 (12-2) under HC Crowton, 4 finishes in a row between 2006-09 for HC Mendenhall, with a high of #12 in 2009 (11-2), and #11 in 2020 and #19 in 2021 under current HC Sitake.

36- Fresno State Bulldogs 10-4/7-1

Coach: Jeff Tedford (4th year, 16th overall)

3-year record/rank: 23-10/.697/T18 (+41)

6-year record/rank: 49-24/.671/20 (+30)

10-year record/rank: 70-54/.565/49 (+3)

Last League Title: 2018

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 30.6 ppg- 52nd/1st MWC

Rushing: 132.2 ypg- 92nd/8th

Passing: 270.6 ypg- 27th/2nd

Total: 402.8 ypg- 53rd/1st

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 19.4 ppg- 14th/2nd

Rushing: 149.6 ypg- 66th/5th

Passing: 189.4 ypg- 18th/3rd

Total: 338.9 ypg- 31st/4th

TO Margin: +4/+0.29/gm- 44th/4th

A good season means… 8 or 9 wins in the regular season and at least challenging for a spot in the MWC Championship Game. Their OOC slate is far from easy: at Purdue, FCS E Washington, at Arizona State, and Kent State. If they can somehow come out of that 3-1 (instead of 1-3 like last year), they would have a great chance to get those 8 or 9 wins. Within the MWC, they miss Air Force, Colorado St, and Hawaii, and must play Wyoming, USU, SJSU, and SDSU on the road, but do get Boise State at home. The biggest indicators to their success will be if their QB play is at least adequate, and if players step up at RB and receiver, since so much production was lost on that side of the ball. A big help would be if the defense would play like it did at the end of last year, where only 1 opponent scored more than 28 points in the last 9 games, and 7 were held to 16 or less.

A disappointing season means… only 6 or 7 wins, and a middling (think middle 3rd) finish in the MWC.

Notes: QB will probably be UCF transfer Mikey Keene, but returners Logan Fife and Malik Sherrod are also in the mix, as are redshirt freshman Joshua Wood and true freshman Jayden Mandal; Ks Abraham Montano (12-19 FGs, long of 43 yds) and Dylan Lynch (6-7 FGs, long of 43 yds) both return, as does P Carson King (41.6 avg, 38.6 net, 4th Team All-MWC); the Bulldogs currently have the nation’s 3rd longest winning streak- 9 games, including the MWC Championship Game and their bowl win over Wash State- behind Troy and those other Bulldogs; FSU has won 10+ games 3 times in Tedford’s 4 years here (2017-19, 2022), and each of the last 2 years; the Bulldogs have won 11 of their last 13 home games with their 2 losses to Oregon St by 3 last year and to Boise St by 26 (in ‘21); 2 of their 4 losses were by 5 points or less, and 3 of their 10 wins were by 7 points or less; the Bulldogs have been to 18 bowls in the last 24 years, winning 8; FS has 11 seasons of 10+ wins in their relatively short history (since 1969): 11-1 in 1982, 11-0-1 in 1985, 11-1 in 1989, and 10-2 in 1988 and 1991, all under HC Jim Sweeney, 11-3 in 2001 under HC Pat Hill, 11-2 in 2013 under HC Tim DeRuyter, 12-2 in 2018, and 10-4 in 2017 and last year under current HC Jeff Tedford, and 10-3 in 2021 under HC Kalen DeBoer (bowl win coached by Lee Marks); despite all of these 10+ win seasons, the Bulldogs have only appeared in the final AP Poll 4 times: in 1992 at #24 (9-4 with a Freedom Bowl win) under HC Sweeney, in 2004 at #22 (9-4 with an MPC Computers Bowl win) under HC Hill, #18 in 2018 (12-2) and #24 in 2021 (10-4) under current HC Tedford.

35- Troy Trojans 12-2/7-1

Coach: Jon Sumrall (2nd year, 2nd overall)

3-year record/rank: 22-15/.595/T43 (+47)

6-year record/rank: 48-27/.640/T27 (+5)

10-year record/rank: 71-53/.573/46 (+20)

Last League Title: 2022

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2021

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 25.6 ppg- 81st/8th SBC

Rushing: 117.0 ypg- 107th/11th

Passing: 242.9 ypg- 54th/7th

Total: 359.9 ypg- 95th/9th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 17.1 ppg- 8th/2nd

Rushing: 119.9 ypg- 24th/5th

Passing: 206.9 ypg- 36th/2nd

Total: 326.7 ypg- 19th/3rd

TO Margin: +8/+0.43/gm- T31st/3rd

A good season means… winning the SBC West, winning a 2nd straight SBC title, and perhaps playing in the NY6 Bowl Game. Their OOC schedule is challenging- FCS Stephen F. Austin, at Kansas State, WKU (won 34-27 on the road last year), and at Army (won 10-9 at home)- but all are “winnable”, if you will, though KSU on the road won’t be easy by any stretch of the imagination. But the Trojans have come close to breaking through against P5 opponents before: lost 28-10 to Ole Miss in last year’s opener, lost 23-14 to S Carolina in ‘21- and even beat Nebraska in 2018, so they won’t be intimidated. Their SBC crossover foes are James Madison and at Ga State, and within the division, they get S Alabama and Louisiana at home, but travel to Southern Miss. This team has a good chance to go 3-1 in OOC, 2-0 in the crossover games, and 5-1 or 6-0 within the division, which could help them reach their goals, depending on if and who they lose to. 

A disappointing season means… dropping back to just 7 or 8 wins, and finishing 3rd or below in the SBC West.

Notes: QB Gunnar Watson (2,818 yds, 14 TDs, 12 INTs, 61.5% completions) returns; defense allowed only 3.6 ppg in the 4th quarter; RB Kimani Vidal (1,132 yds, 10 TDs) also returns; K and P will both be new; the Trojans enter this season with the 2nd longest current winning streak in FBS- 11 games including wins in the SBC Championship Game and in their bowl over UTSA (behind only UGA); only App State scored more than 28 against the Troy defense when the Mountaineers won 32-28; Troy has now won 10+ games 4 times in the last 7 years, and have won their last 5 bowl games, dating back to 2010; offense returns 6 starters, as does the defense, but only 3 of their top 8 tacklers; Troy finished ranked in the AP Poll for the 1st time ever (#19); half of their 12 wins were by 7 points or less, as were half of their 2 losses; the Trojans have been to 9 bowls in the last 19 years, winning 6, and have 4 seasons of 10+ wins, including 3 straight under HC Neal Brown from 2016-18 (10-3, 11-2, 10-3), and 12-2 last year under current HC Sumrall.

34- Oregon State Beavers 10-3/6-3

Coach: Jonathan Smith (6th year, 6th overall)

3-year record/rank: 19-14/.576/T50 (+37)

6-year record/rank: 27-42/.391/T102 (+9)

10-year record/rank: 45-73/.381/108 (+1)

Last League Title: 2000 co-champs

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 32.2 ppg- 38th/6th Pac 12

Rushing: 196.5 ypg- 28th/4th

Passing: 199.5 ypg- 105th/11th

Total: 396.0 ypg- 61st/7th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 20.0 ppg- 16th/1st

Rushing: 108.2 ypg- 15th/1st

Passing: 224.5 ypg- 65th/3rd

Total: 332.8 ypg- 26th/1st

TO Margin: -1/-0.08/gn- T76th/7th

A good season means… a 3rd straight winning season and bowl game, and challenging for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Their OOC games, while not super easy, are all quite winnable- at San Jose State, FCS UC Davis, and San Diego State. They should be able to start the season 3-0 with that slate. In the conference, they avoid USC and Arizona State, and they get Utah, UCLA, and Washington at home with Oregon on the road. This is about as good a schedule as they could hope for, and another 10+ wins is possible, along with a finish in the top 3 or 4 in the conference. A lot will depend on how the QB(s) do, and whether the defense can sustain their level of play from last year.

A disappointing season means… a 6 or 7 win year, and a middle 3rd finish in the Pac 12.

Notes: QB will most likely be Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei (2,521 yds, 22 TDs, 7 INTs, 61.9% completions), but Ben Gulbranson (1,455 yds, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 62.4%) returns; OL returns 4 starters; RB Damien Martinez (982 yds, 6.1 ypc, 7 TDs, Pac 12 Offensive Freshman POY) also returns; OSU outscored opponents 112-66 in the 4th quarter; the Beavers haven‘t been to the Rose Bowl since 1964 under HC Tommy Prothro; OSU finished at #17 in the AP Poll, its highest since finishing 4th in 2000, and they were 14th in the CFP Final rankings; Anthony Gould had a 18.6 avg for PRs, with 2 TDs; K Everett Hayes (6-13 FGs) returns, but P will be new; offense returns 8 starters, but defense returns just 5; the Beavers are on a 4-game winning streak, including a rout of Florida in their bowl game; 3 of 10 wins were by a combined 8 points, and 2 of 3 losses were by 3 points each; OSU has won 11 of their last 12 home games; the Beavers haven’t had 3 consecutive winning season since having 4 straight from 2006-09 (10-4, 9-4, 9-4, 8-5 under HC Mike Riley); OSU has been to 13 bowls in the last 24 years, winning 8; last year was only their 3rd 10+ win season in history, the other 2 being 11-1 in 2000 under HC Dennis Erickson and 10-4 in 2006 under HC Riley; the Beavers 1st finished in the final AP Poll in 1941, #12 (8-2 with a Rose Bowl win) under HC Lon Stiner, then were #10 in 1956 (7-3-1 with a Rose Bowl loss) and #8 in 1964 (8-3 with another Rose Bowl loss) under HC Tommy Prothro, followed by #7 in 1967 (7-2-1) and #15 in 1968 (7-3) under HC Dee Andros, #4 in 2000 (11-1 with a Fiesta Bowl win) under HC Erickson, #21 in 2006 (10-4 with a Sun Bowl win), #25 in 2007 (9-4 with a bowl win), #18 in 2008 (9-4 with a Sun Bowl win), and #20 in 2012 (9-4 with an Alamo Bowl loss, all under HC Riley, before finishing at #17 last year (10-3) under current HC Jonathan Smith.

33- Ole Miss Rebels 8-5/4-4

Coach: Lane Kiffin (4th year, 12th overall FBS)

3-year record/rank: 23-13/.639/T31 (+33)

6-year record/rank: 38-34/.528/59 (+22)

10-year record/rank:70-53/.569/48 (+4)

Last League Title: 1963 (5th longest title drought)

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2019

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 33.5 ppg- 29th/5th SEC

Rushing: 256.6 ypg- 3rd/1st

Passing: 239.8 ypg- 59th/7th

Total: 496.4 ypg- 8th/3rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 25.5 ppg- 57th/9th

Rushing: 168.0 ypg- 90th/8th

Passing: 219.8 ypg- 55th/9th

Total: 387.8 ypg- 75th/8th

TO Margin: -1/-0.08/gm- 76th/8th

A good season means… winning 8+ games for a 3rd year in a row, finishing in the top 3 in the SEC West for a 3rd year in a row, beating Mississippi State for the 3rd time in the last 4 years, and challenging for the SEC West crown. A bonus would be winning their bowl for the 1st time since 2020. The OOC schedule isn’t easy, but not super tough, either: FCS Mercer, at Tulane and Ga Tech in September, then ULM in November. The SEC crossover games are Vandy and at Georgia, as they are one of only 3 teams (Auburn and Kentucky are the others) that have to play both Bama and UGA, and they get both on the road! However, they have LSU and Arkansas at home (right after Bama), along with Texas A&M. This looks like a 7 or 8 win team to me, with a chance to pull an upset or 2 to get to 9 or 10 wins.

A disappointing season means… only 6 or 7 wins and/or a 2nd straight loss to Miss State, and a 4th place or lower finish in the division.

Notes: QB Jaxson Dart (2,974 yds, 20 TDs, 11 INTs, 62.4% completions, 614 rushing yds, 4.8 ypc) returns, but the Rebels added Okla State transfer Spencer Sanders (2,642 yds, 17 TDs, 9 INTs, 57.6% completions, 391 rushing yds, 3.7 ypc) and LSU transfer Walker Howard to compete for the starting job; RB Quinshon Judkins set school records for yds  and rushing TDs (1,567 yds, 5.7 ypc, 16 TDs) and was 1st Team All-SEC; defense allowed 42+ in 3 of their last 6 games; K Caden Costa returns after a suspension cost him the 2022 season (14-17 FGs, long of 50 yds in ‘21), and P Fraser Masin (42.1 avg, 39.4 net) also returns; offense returns 9 starters, and defense returns 7; Ole Miss is the only original SEC West team without a trip to the SEC Title Game; the Rebels lost their last 4 games, including their bowl to Texas Tech, and 5 of their last 6 after starting the season 7-0; 2 of their 5 losses were by 6 points or less, and 3 of their 8 wins were by 8 points or less; the Rebs had won 15 straight home games before losing to Alabama and Miss State to end the season; Ole Miss has been to 15 bowls in the last 26 years, winning 11; the Rebels have had 8 seasons of 10 wins: 10-1 in 1955 and 1959, 10-0-1 in 1960, and 10-0 in 1962, all under HC John Vaught, and each ending in a bowl win (Cotton Bowl in 1955, Sugar Bowl in the other 3), 10-2 in 1971 (Peach Bowl win) under HC Billy Kinard, 10-3 in 2003 (Cotton Bowl win) under HC David Cutcliffe, 10-3 in 2015 (Sugar Bowl win) under HC Hugh Freeze, and 10-3 in 2021 under current HC Kiffin; the Rebs 1st finished ranked in the AP Poll in 1941 at #17 (6-2-1) under HC Harry Mehre, and under HC Vaught, finished ranked 14 times between 1947-1970, 9 times in the Top 10, including consecutive #2s in 1959 (10-1) and 1960 (10-0-1), #5 in 1961 (9-2), and #3 in 1962 (10-0); HC Billy Kinard led the team to a #15 finish in his 1st year of 1971, and then HC Billy Brewer had 2 poll finishes (#21 in 1990 and #16 in 1992, 9-3 each season), HC Tommy Tuberville was #22 in 1997 (8-4), #13 in 2003 (10-3 under HC Cutcliffe, #14 and #20 in 2008 and 2009 respectively (9-4 both seasons) under HC Houston Nutt, #17 in 2014 (9-4) and #10 in 2015 (10-3) under HC Freeze, before finally reaching #11 in 2021 (10-3) under current HC Kiffin.

32- Oklahoma State Cowboys 7-6/4-5

Coach: Mike Gundy (19th year, 19th overall)

3-year record/rank: 27-11/.711/14 (NC)

6-year record/rank: 52-25/.675/19 (-7)

10-year record/rank: 89-40/.690/13 (-1)

Last League Title: 2011

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2005 (6th longest bowl streak)

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 30.6 ppg- 48th/8th Big 12

Rushing: 125.5 ypg- 97th/9th

Passing: 279.5 ypg- 20th/2nd

Total: 405.1 ypg- 52nd/8th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 28.9 ppg- 89th/5th

Rushing: 178.0 ypg- 101st/8th

Passing: 257.7 ypg- 106th/7th

Total: 435.7 ypg- 115th/8th

TO Margin: -4/-0.31/gm- T96th/7th

A good season means… challenging for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, and they have the schedule to do it. Their OOC schedule is as easy as one can get that includes a P5 team- FCS C Arkansas, at Arizona St (won 34-17 at home last year), and S Alabama (not an easy win). Within the conference, OSU misses Baylor, TCU, Texas, and Texas Tech (all the current Big 12 teams from Texas) and gets all of the new members- BYU, Cincinnati, at Houston, and at UCF, one of only 2 Big 12 teams to do so (along with WVU). Their other road conference games are Iowa State and WVU, so they get 5 Big 12 home games, the toughest of which are Kansas State, Kansas, and Oklahoma. So much will depend on how well their QB plays, and if their defense can return to form.

A disappointing season means… another 6 or 7 win season, which would be a huge disappointment seeing as how 6 teams (half!) on their schedule were not P5 teams last year.

Notes: QB will most likely be Michigan/Texas Tech transfer Alan Bowman, but Garret Rangel (711 yds, 4TDs, 5 INTs, 51.3% completions in 4 games) and Gunner Gundy (247 yds, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, 48.7% completions, HC’s son) return; S Kendal Daniels returns (Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year, 3 INTs, 71 tackles); K Alex Hale is a former Lou Groza Award semifinalist (16-20 FGs, long of 44 yds for career) but missed last year; P will be new; the Cowboys have had 17 straight winning seasons and 17 straight bowl appearances (winning 11), and have been in 20 bowls in the last 21 years (winning 12), missing only in HC Mike Gundy’s 1st year in 2005 (4-7); HC Gundy is the 3rd longest tenured HC in FBS; offense returns 7 starters, defense returns 6; the Cowboys lost their last 3, including their bowl game to Wisconsin, and 5 of their last 6 after starting 6-1; 2 of their 7 wins were by 7 points or less, and 3 of their 6 losses were by 7 or less; the Pokes have won 10+ games 7 times in the last 13 years; before HC Gundy arrived in 2005, the Cowboys had only 3 seasons of 10 wins, all under HC Pat Jones: 10-2 in 1984, 1987, and 1988, each with a bowl win; the Pokes 1st appeared in the final AP Poll in 1945, at #5 (9-0 with a Sugar Bowl win) under HC Jim Lookabaugh, then in 1958 at #19 (8-3 with a Bluegrass Bowl win) under HC Cliff Speegle, #14 in 1976 (9-3 with a Tangerine Bowl win) under HC Jim Stanley, but then HC Pat Jones became the 1st to lead them to multiple poll finishes: #7 in 1984 and a pair of #11 finishes in 1987 and 1988 (the three 10-2 seasons); HC Bob Simmons led the team to a #24 ranking in 1997 (8-4), and current HC Mike Gundy has finished in the AP Poll 9 times in his 17 years, twice in the Top 10, including #3 in 2011 (12-1 with a Fiesta Bowl win) and #7 in 2021 (12-2 with another Fiesta Bowl win). 

31- North Carolina Tar Heels 9-5/6-2

Coach: Mack Brown (5th year back, 34th overall)

3-year record/rank: 23-16/.590/47 (+11)

6-year record/rank: 35-40/.467/85 (+6)

10-year record/rank: 67-61/.523/66 (+1)

Last League Title: 1980

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2018

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 34.4 ppg- 26th/3rd ACC

Rushing: 153.5 ypg- 67th/6th

Passing: 309.3 ypg- 11th/2nd

Total: 462.8 ypg- 19th/2nd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 30.8 ppg- 102nd/14th

Rushing: 165.2 ypg- 86th/12th

Passing: 271.3 ypg- 116th/14th

Total: 436.5 ypg- 116th/14th
TO Margin: 0/0/gm- T67th/8th

A good season means… once again playing in the ACC Championship Game for the 2nd year in a row, or at least challenging to do so and finishing in the top 3rd of the conference. Their OOC games are South Carolina in Charlotte, App State (won 63-61 on the road last year), Minnesota, and then FCS Campbell in November. Inside the ACC they avoid FSU, Louisville, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Va Tech. However, they must play Pitt, Clemson and NC State on the road, the latter 2 the last 2 weeks of the season, while getting Miami and Duke at home. This is certainly not an easy schedule, and if they hope to achieve their goals, their defense needs to be better than worst in the ACC.

A disappointing season means… dropping back to their normal 6 to 8 wins, and a middle-of-the-pack finish in the ACC. UNC has won 6, 7 or 8 games 11 of the last 15 years.

Notes: QB Drake Maye (4,321 yds- school record, 38 TDs- tied school record, 7 INTs, 66.2% completions, 698 yds rushing, 3.8 ypc, 7 TDs) returns; defense ranked 128th in sacks (17, 1.21/game) and 130th in TFLs (51, 3.6/game); K Noah Burnette (15-21 FGs, long of 47 yds) and P Ben Kiernan (46.8 avg, 41.3 net) both return, but Cincinnati transfer K Ryan Coe (19-23 FGs, long of 52 yds) could take over; OL allowed 40 sacks (2.86/game) last year (102nd FBS, 8th ACC); HC Mack Brown is the winningest active coach in FBS with 274 wins; defense allowed 30+ in 6 games, and 45+ in 2; offense was held under 28 points each of the last 4 games; offense returns 9 starters, and defense returns 8; UNC was 6-0 on the road last year; the Tar Heels are on a 4-game losing streak, including losses in the ACC Championship Game to Clemson and in the bowl game to Oregon; 3 of their 5 losses were by 4 points or less, and 6 of their 9 wins were by 7 points or less; UNC has been to 12 bowls in the last 15 years, winning only 3; the Heels haven’t had 3 straight winning season since 2008-2013 under HCs Butch Davis (‘08-’10), Everett Withers (‘11), and Larry Fedora (‘12-’13); UNC has had 8 seasons of 10+ wins: 10-1 in 1914 under HC T.C. Trenchard, 11-1 in 1972 under HC Bill Dooley, 11-1 in 1980 and 10-2 in 1981 under HC Dick Crum, 10-3 in 1993, 10-2 in 1996, and 11-1 in 1997 under HC Mack Brown (Carl Torbush coached the Gator Bowl win), and 11-3 in 2015 under HC Larry Fedora; the Heels were 1st ranked in the final AP Poll in 1937, finishing #19 (7-1-1) under HC Raymond Wolf, then were ranked 4 times under HC Carl Snavely: #9 in 1946 (8-2-1) and 1947 (8-2), #3 in 1948 (9-1-1) and #16 in 1949 (7-4), followed by twice under HC Dooley (#12 in 1972 (11-1) and #17 in 1977 (8-3-1), 4 times under HC Crum between 1979-82 (twice in the Top Ten, #10 in 1980 and #9 in 1981), 4 times under HC Mack Brown between 1992 and 1997 (twice in the Top 10, #10 in ‘96 and #6 in ‘97), #15 in 2015 under HC Fedora, and finally #18 in 2020 (8-4) again under current HC Mack Brown.

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Come back Monday for Part XI, and check out the previous Parts!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!