College Football Preview Part XI

Welcome Back!

Welcome to my annual College Football Preview! If you haven't read these before, here are how they work. I will preview 10 teams per day (except for the 1st 2 days, I will do 12 and then 11, because there are 133 teams) until I get to the top 20, and then I will do 5 teams per day, culminating in the Top 5 on Friday, August 4. This will take 3 weeks to complete. When those are finished, I will spend 2 weeks previewing each conference and making my conference picks. You can expect these to appear between 5 and 6 pm each day through July 27, and then I will begin posting them between 9 and 10 am beginning July 28.

I hope you enjoy these previews! Feel free to leave a comment, or even a suggestion on how I could make these better for next year.

In Part I, I gave details on how these previews are set up (check it out if you missed it. Today, I am previewing #s 30-21.

30- NC State Wolfpack 8-5/4-4

Coach: Dave Doeren (11th year, 13th overall)

3-year record/rank: 25-12/.676/22 (+24)

6-year record/rank: 47-28/.627/31 (+6)

10-year record/rank: 72-54/.571/47 (+1)

Last League Title: 1979

Last Bowl: 2022 Mayo

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 24.3 ppg- 94th/9th ACC

Rushing: 113.8 ypg- 110th/12th

Passing: 226.1 ypg- 74th/9th

Total: 339.8 ypg- 105th/11th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 19.2 ppg- T11th/T1st

Rushing: 100.7 ypg- 11th/2nd

Passing: 226.1 ypg- 71st/7th

Total: 326.9 ypg- 20th/2nd

TO Margin: +6/+0.46/gm- T24th/T3rd

A good season means… another 7, 8, or 9-win season and a top 3rd finish in the ACC. A great season would be finally breaking through with a 10-win season and challenging for a spot in the ACC Championship Game. The Wolfpack have not won 10+ games in a season since going 11-3 in 2002 under HC Chuck Amato. Outside of playing Notre Dame at home in the 2nd game of the season, their OOC games are pretty easy- at UConn (won 41-10 at home last year), FCS VMI, and then Marshall on the 1st weekend in October. In the ACC, they avoid FSU, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, and Ga Tech, while they get Louisville, Clemson, Miami, and UNC all at home, and Duke, Wake Forest, and the 2 Virginia schools on the road. All in all, it’s a pretty favorable schedule, if they can be more consistent with their offense, and their defense can be as good as it was last year.

A disappointing season means… only 6 wins, or worse, one of those losing seasons pops up, like it seems to do every 4 or 5 years (last one was 4 years ago, in 2019).

Notes: HC Doeren has more bowl bids (8) than any NC State coach in history, and his 72 wins with the Wolfpack rank 2nd in school history; QB will likely be Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong (2,210 yds, 7 TDs, 12 INTs, 54.7% completions), but MJ Morris (648 yds, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 60.5% completions, 88 yds rushing) returns; OL returns 3 starters; K will probably be WKU/Iowa State transfer Brayden Narveson (15-21 FGs, long of 51 yds), and P Caden Noonkester (43 avg) returns; offense has only 19 rushing TDs the last 2 years (out of 79 total); defense had 19 INTs last year; NC State has won 16 of its last 17 home games, and 18 of its last 20; the Wolfpack have been to 10 bowl games in the last 13 years (the ‘21 game was canceled), winning 5; NC State lost 3 of their last 4 games, including their bowl game to Maryland; 2 of their 5 losses were by 4 points or less, and 4 of their 8 wins were by 3 points or less; the Pack has won either 7, 8, or 9 wins in 11 of the last 13 years, with only 2013 (3-9) and 2019 (4-8) being the outliers; offense was held to 27 points or less in 9 out of 13 games, and to 20 or less in 5; defense held 9 opponents to 21 or less, and all but Clemson to less than 30; the Wolfpack have been to 25 bowls in the last 37 years, winning 12; NC State’s lone 10+ win season was in 2002, when they were 11-3 under HC Chuck Amato (Gator Bowl win); the Pack was ranked in the final AP Poll in 1946 (8-3) and 1947 (5-3-1) at #18 and #17 respectively under HC Beattie Feathers, and then #15 in 1957 (7-1-2) under HC Earle Edwards, 3 times under HC Lou Holtz (#17 in 1972 at 8-3-1, #16 in ‘73 at 9-3, and #11 in ‘74 at 9-2-1), #18 in 1978 (9-3) under HC Bo Rein, #24 and #17 in 1991 (9-3) and 1992 (9-3-1) under HC Dick Sheridan, #17 in 1994 (9-3) under HC Mike O’Cain, #12 in 2002 (11-3) under HC Amato, #25 in 2010 (9-4) under HC Tom O’Brien, and #23 in 2017 (9-4) and #20 in 2021 (9-3) under current HC Doeren.

29- UCF Knights 9-5/6-2

Coach: Gus Malzahn (3rd year, 12th overall)

3-year record/rank: 24-13/.649/T27 (-2)

6-year record/rank: 59-17/.776/7 (+2)

10-year record/rank: 86-41/.677/T15 (-1)

Last League Title: 2018

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2015 (T10th longest bowl streak)

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 32.9 ppg- 31st/5th AAC

Rushing: 228.4 ypg- 9th/2nd

Passing: 241.2 ypg- 57th/8th

Total: 469.6 ypg- 16th/2nd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 23.6 ppg- 46th/3rd

Rushing: 157.7 ypg- 78th/7th

Passing: 222.3 ypg- 59th/5th

Total: 380.0 ypg- 69th/5th

TO Margin: -4/-0.29/gm- 95th/8th

A good season means… winning 6+ games for the 8th year in a row, and at least finishing in the top half of the Big 12. Their OOC games are all winnable- Kent State, at Boise St, and FCS Villanova- so at worst they should be 2-1 entering their conference schedule, which opens against 2022 champion Kansas State on the road. Within the Big 12, they avoid Texas, TCU, Iowa State, and BYU, so they will play both of their rivals from the AAC. They have 5 Big 12 road games, so in addition to KSU, they must travel to play Kansas, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and TTU, which means they get Baylor, WVU, OSU, and Houston at home. Getting to 6 wins will be challenging but doable. Getting more may be a stretch.

A disappointing season means… a losing season, no bowl game, and a bottom 3rd finish in the Big 12.

Notes: UCF joins the Big 12 this season, leaving the AAC behind; the Knights began as a Division III program in 1979, and when they joined the Big 12 on July 1, became the 1st program to have played at every level of college football (or technically, when they play their 1st game on 8/31); QB John Rhys Plumlee (2,586 yds, 14 TDs, 8 INTs, 63% completions, 862 yds rushing, 5.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 2nd Team All-AAC) returns; K Colton Boomer (14-15 FGs, long of 43) and P Mitch McCarthy (43.4 avg, 38.3 net) both return; offense returns 6 of top 7 in receptions, and defense returns 4 of top 6 tacklers; defense had only 21 sacks and 6 INTs; offense returns 8 starters, and defense returns 7; the Knights are 35-3 at home over the last 6 years; UCF has been to 7 straight bowls, winning 3, and 12 of the last 14 years, winning 6; the Knights have only been an FBS team since 1996, but have had seven 10+ win seasons, all in the last 16 years; UCF lost 3 of their last 4 games, including the AAC Title Game and their bowl to Duke; 3 of their 9 wins were by 7 points or less, and 2 of their 5 losses were by 6 points or less; 10+ win seasons were in 2007 (10-4), 2010 (11-3), 2012 (10-4), and 2013 (12-1), all under HC George O’Leary, 13-0 in 2017 under HC Scott Frost, and 12-1 in 2018 and 10-3 in 2019 under HC Josh Heupel; the Knights have finished in the final AP Poll 5 times: #21 in 2010, #10 in 2013, #6 in 2017, #11 in 2018, and #24 in 2019 (see previous sentence for records and coaches for those years).

28- UCLA Bruins 9-4/6-3

Coach: Chip Kelly (6th year, 10th overall)

3-year record/rank: 20-12/.625/T38 (+40)

6-year record/rank: 33-36/.478/80 (+20)

10-year record/rank: 65-55/.542/60 (NC)

Last League Title: 1998

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2021

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 39.2 ppg- 8th/3rd Pac 12

Rushing: 237.2 ypg- 6th/1st

Passing: 266.4 ypg- 34th/6th

Total: 503.6 ypg- 4th/3rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 29.0 ppg- T90th/7th

Rushing: 130.3 ypg- 35th/5th

Passing: 273.0 ypg- 117th/10th

Total: 403.3 ypg- 87th/6th

TO Margin: -3/-0.23/gm- T85th/8th

A good season means… sustaining their success of the last 2 seasons and winning 8+ games, and perhaps challenging for a berth in the Pac 12 Championship Game again, which would (hopefully) mean finishing in the top 3rd of the conference. Their OOC schedule isn’t a cakewalk, but they should go 3-0 against Coastal Carolina, at San Diego St, and FCS NC Central. Within the Pac 12, they have 5 road games, opening at Utah, while also traveling to Oregon State and USC, but they avoid Washington and Oregon altogether. For the most part, it’s a pretty favorable conference schedule, with a great chance to at least match last year’s 6-3 Pac 12 record.

A disappointing season means… backsliding to just 6 or 7 wins, and finishing in the bottom half of the Pac 12. 

Notes: UCLA will be playing its last season in the Pac 12, as it is joining the Big Ten at the beginning of the 2024 season; QB is undecided between last year’s backup Ethan Garbers (294 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 70.3% completions), Kent State transfer Collin Schlee (2,109 yds, 13 TDs, 5 INTs, 59% completions) and true freshman Dante Moore; RB Carson Steele (1,556 yds- led MAC) transfers in from Ball State; defense was only FBS team not to give up any play over 50 yds, but was 110th in allowing plays of 10+ yds; both K and P will be new, but K could be Montana St transfer Blake Glessner (24-29 FGs, long of 51 yds) and P could be Princeton transfer Will Powers (39.7 avg); defense allowed 30+ points 8 times last year; defense returns 9 starters; not counting 2020 (which only had 7 games) the Bruins have improved their win total each year under HC Kelly, from 3 in 2018, to 4 in ‘19, (3-4 in 2020), to 8 in ‘21 to 9 last year- will that continue?; UCLA lost 3 of their last 4, including their bowl to Pitt on a last-second FG; 3 of 9 wins were by 8 points or less, as were 3 of their 4 losses; the Bruins have been to 31 bowls in the last 48 years, winning 15 (with 1 tie); UCLA has had 9 seasons of 10+ wins: 10-1 (Rose Bowl loss) in 1946 under HC Bert LaBrucherie, 10-1-1 (Rose Bowl win) in 1982 and back-to-back 10-2 seasons in 1987 and ‘88, all under HC Terry Donohue, back-to back 10-2 seasons again in 1997 and ‘98 under HC Bob Toledo, 10-2 in 2005 under HC Karl Dorrell, and back-to-back 10-3 seasons in 2013 and ‘14 under HC Jim Mora; the Bruins first finished in the final AP Poll in 1939 at #7 (6-0-4) under HC Babe Horrell, who also led them to a #13 finish in 1942 (7-4), then they finished #4 in 1946 (10-1) under HC LaBrucherie, in the final AP Poll 5 times under HC Red Sanders between 1951-1955, 4 times in the Top 10, including #6 in 1952 (8-1), #5 in ‘53 (8-2), #2 in ‘54 (9-0), and #4 in ‘55 (9-2), 3 times in the final poll under HC Tommy Prothro: #4 in 1965 (8-2-1), #5 in ‘66 (9-1) and #13 in ‘69 (8-1-1), #15 in 1972 (8-3) and #12 in 1973 (9-2) under HC Pepper Rodgers, #5 in 1975 under HC Dick Vermeil, 12 times under HC Terry Donohue between 1976 and 1993, 5 times in the Top 10, including a high of #5 in 1982 (10-1-1), #5 in 1997 and #8 in 1998 (10-2 in both seasons) under HC Bob Toledo, #16 in 2005 (10-2) under HC Karl Dorrell, #16 in 2013 and #10 in 2014 (10-3 each season) under HC Jim Mora, and finally #21 last year (9-4) under current HC Chip Kelly.

27- Cincinnati Bearcats 9-4/6-2

Coach: Scott Satterfield (1st year, 10th overall)

3-year record/rank: 31-6/.838/4 (+1)

6-year record/rank: 57-19/.750/8 (+8)

10-year record/rank: 86-41/.677/T15 (-1)

Last League Title: 2021

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2017

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 29.2 ppg- 58th/8th AAC

Rushing: 129.7 ypg- 94th/10th

Passing: 242.6 ypg- 55th/7th

Total: 372.3 ypg- 81st/9th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 20.6 ppg- 20th/1st

Rushing: 153.2 ypg- 72nd/6th

Passing: 182.2 ypg- 11th/1st

Total: 335.5 ypg- 29th/1st

TO Margin: +6/+0.46/gm- T24th/T2nd

A good season means… a 6th consecutive winning season and a 6th straight bowl, and a top half finish in the Big 12. Anything more than that is just gravy, since they are taking a step up in competition from the AAC. They should do no worse than 2-1 in their OOC games- FCS E Kentucky, at Pitt, and Miami, Oh (won 38-17 last year). In the conference, they avoid Texas, Kansas St, TCU, and Texas Tech, and they get 5 home games, so they have about as easy of a conference slate as possible for their 1st year. They even get Oklahoma, Baylor, and UCF at home, with their toughest road games being BYU and Okla State. This team should be able to win 6 and make a bowl, and possibly more, but a lot will depend on how well their offense jells, and if their defense can maintain the standard they set last year.

A disappointing season means… their 1st losing season since going 4-8 in 2017, and a bottom 3rd finish in the Big 12.

Notes: Cincinnati is joining the Big 12 this year, leaving the AAC; QB will likely be Arizona State/Florida transfer Emory Jones; K should be Arizona St transfer Carter Brown (11-14 FGs, long of 53 yds), and P Mason Fletcher (46.3 avg- 4th in FBS, 44.4 net- 2nd in FBS, UC record 83-yd punt, AAC Special Teams POY, 3rd Team All-American) returns; offense returns only 3 starters, and defense returns 6; UC lost their last 2 games, including their bowl to Louisville, but won 3 of their last 5; the Bearcats have had 5 consecutive winning seasons, and have been to 18 bowls in the last 23 years (since 2000), winning only 7; Cincy has had 8 seasons of 10+ wins, all in the last 16 years: 10-3 in 2007, 11-3 in 2008, and 12-1 in 2009, all under HC Brian Kelly (Jeff Quinn coached the bowl loss in ‘09), 10-3 in both 2011 and 2012 under HC Butch Jones (Steve Stripling coached the bowl win in ‘12), and 11-2 in 2018, 11-3 in 2019, and 13-1 in 2021 under HC Luke Fickell; the Bearcats have finished the season ranked in the AP Poll 8 times, also in the last 16 years, but not strictly in the same years as the 10+ win seasons: #17 in 2007 and 2008 and #8 in 2009 (HC Kelly), #25 in 2011 (HC Jones), #24 in 2018, #21 in 2019, #8 in 2020 (9-1) and #4 in 2021 (HC Fickell).

26- Air Force Falcons 10-3/5-3

Coach: Troy Calhoun (17th year, 17th overall)

3-year record/rank: 23-9/.719/13 (-3)

6-year record/rank: 44-25/.638/29 (-2)

10-year record/rank: 74-47/.612/34 (+11)

Last League Title: 1998 WAC

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 27.8 ppg- 69th/3rd MWC

Rushing: 326.7 ypg- 1st/1st

Passing: 70.5 ypg- 131st/12th

Total: 397.2 ypg- 59th/2nd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 13.4 ppg- 3rd/1st

Rushing: 95.3 ypg- 6th/1st

Passing: 159.1 ypg- 2nd/1st

Total: 254.4 ypg- 1st/1st

TO Margin: +3/+0.23/gm- T49th/5th

A good season means… another 10+ wins for the 4th time in 5 years, a berth in the MWC Championship Game for the 1st time since 2015, and winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy for a 2nd straight year. Their OOC schedule is easier than usual (no P5 team) as they play FCS Robert Morris, Sam Houston (in Houston), at Navy, and Army in Denver. In the MWC, they miss Fresno State, Nevada, and New Mexico, and they get SDSU and Wyoming at home, with only SJSU and Colo St on the road. Their biggest game, and one that could be played again a week later in the title game is their finale at Boise State on Nov 25. This is a team that could be 11-0 going into that Boise St game, barring upsets, but that will depend on how well their QB executes the offense, and if their defense can play as well as they did last year.

A disappointing season means… 8 wins or less, finishing 3rd or lower in the MWC, and losing the CIC Trophy.

Notes: Air Force led the nation in TOP; OL returns 4 starters; AF has led the nation in rushing for 3 straight years; QB is up in the air, and will be decided in fall camp between Zac Larrier, Ben Brittain, and Jensen Jones; defense was 4th in FBS in 3rd down defense, and held their last 2 opponents to a combined 0-21 on 3rd downs; the Falcons were last in FBS in KR yds with 54, and next to last in PR yds with 11; K Matthew Dapore (16-21 FGs, long of 54 yds, Lou Groza Award semifinalist) and P Carson Bay (37.6 avg, 35.9 net) both return; AF has won 5 straight games versus P5 opponents, and has won 10+ 3 of the last 4 years (3-3 in 2020); HC Calhoun leads all active MWC coaches with 72 conference wins; all 3 losses last year were by 7 points or less, and in fact, their last 7 losses (dating back to their final loss in 2020) have all been by 7 or less, with 5 by 5 or less; 2 of 10 wins were by 6 or less- the wins over Navy and Army which clinched the CIC Trophy for AF for the 1st time since 2016; offense returns 5 starters, but defense returns 8; the Falcons have won 7 of their last 8 at home; AF has been to 12 bowls in the last 16 years (all under HC Calhoun), winning 7, and have 5 double-digit win seasons in the last 9 years, with 11-2 in 2019 their best mark; before HC Calhoun, the Falcons had 5 seasons of 10+ wins: 10-2 in 1983 under HC Ken Hatfield, and 12-1 in 1985, 10-3 in 1991 and 1997, and 12-1 in 1998, all under HC Fisher DeBerry; AF 1st ended the season ranked in the AP Poll in 1958 at #6 (9-0-2, tie in Cotton Bowl), then were #16 in 1970 (9-3), both under HC Ben Martin, followed by #13 in 1983 under HC Hatfield, #8 in 1985, #25 in 1991, and #13 in 1998 under HC DeBerry, before a final ranking of #22 in 2019 under current HC Calhoun; did you know that Bill Parcells was HC for one year in Colorado Springs, where, he went 3-8 in 1978?

25- Minnesota Golden Gophers 9-4/5-4

Coach: PJ Fleck (7th year, 11th overall)

3-year record/rank: 21-12/.636/34 (-11)

6-year record/rank: 44-27/.620/T32 (+1)

10-year record/rank: 75-48/.610/36 (+7)

Last League Title: 1967 co-champs (T7th longest title drought)

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 28.2 ppg- 66th/4th Big Ten

Rushing: 207.3 ypg- 16th/2nd

Passing: 182.2 ypg- 116th/12th

Total: 389.5 ypg- 65th/6th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 13.8 ppg- 4th/3rd

Rushing: 109.0 ypg- 16th/5th

Passing: 186.1 ypg- 15th/4th

Total: 295.1 ypg- 9th/4th

TO Margin: +5/+0.38/gm- 35th/6th

A good season means… 9+ wins for a 3rd season in a row, and challenging for a Big Ten West title, which would be their 1st ever- and their last chance to do so. Their OOC schedule is challenging- E Mich, at North Carolina, and Louisiana- so going 3-0 against those 3 may be difficult, but 2-1 is doable. Their Big Ten crossover games are just about as difficult as possible: Michigan, Mich State, and at Ohio State, but at least 2 of those are at home. Within the division, they travel to Northwestern, Iowa, and Purdue, getting Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin at home. Overall, it’s a tough schedule, but if they can get good play out of their QB, better balance on offense between the run and pass, and continue their stellar play on defense, this could be a special season. However, they could run the table in the division and still finish 2nd (or 3rd) in the Big Ten West simply because of their crossover games.

A disappointing season means… only 6 or 7 wins and a 4th place or lower finish in the Big Ten West for the 1st time since 2020.

Notes: QB Athan Kaliakmanis (946 yds, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, 54.1% completions, 140 yds rushing, 4.1 ypc) will be taking over for the departed Tanner Morgan; HC Fleck is 0-6 vs Iowa, but a combined 8-4 against Wisconsin and Nebraska; defense was 13th in Big Ten in sacks; K will be new, but P Mark Crawford (40.6 avg, 37.9 net) returns; HC Fleck is 4-0 in bowls; offense returns 7 starters, and defense returns 6; the Golden Gophers have been to 18 bowls in the last 24 years, winning 9, including the last 6; Minnesota won their last 2, including their bowl over Syracuse, and 5 of their last 6; 3 of their 9 wins were by 8 points or less, but only 1 of their 4 losses were close- 13-10 to Iowa; the Gophers have 4 straight winning seasons (and bowls) in non-COVID years; UM has 6 seasons of 10+ wins, but 4 of those are before 1906: 10-0-2 in 1900, 14-0-1 in 1903, 13-0 in 1904, and 10-1 in 1905, all under HC Henry Williams, 10-3 in 2003 under HC Glen Mason, and 11-2 in 2019 under current HC P.J. Fleck; HC Bernie Bierman led the Gophers to #1 finishes in 3 of the first 6 AP Polls- the very 1st in 1936 (7-1), and in 1940 and 1941 (8-0 each season), as well as a #5 finish in 1937 (6-2) and a #10 in 1938 (6-2); HC George Hauser followed up with a #19 finish in 1942 (5-4), then HC Bierman returned and had 2 more poll appearances, #16 in 1948  and #8 in 1949 (7-2 both years); Minny finished #12 in 1956 (6-1-2) and then #1 in 1960 (8-2, Rose Bowl loss), #6 in 1961 (8-2, Rose Bowl win), and #10 in 1962 (6-2-1), all under HC Murray Warmath, then their next finishes in the poll was in 1999 (8-4) at #18 and 2003 (10-3) at #20 under HC Mason, and that was it until 2019, when current HC Fleck led the Golden Gophers to a #10 finish with an 11-2 record.

24- Pittsburgh Panthers 9-4/5-3

Coach: Pat Narduzzi (9th year, 9th overall)

3-year record/rank: 26-12/.684/21 (+8)

6-year record/rank: 46-31/.597/42 (NC)

10-year record/rank: 75-54/.581/43 (+13)

Last League Title: 2021

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 31.3 ppg- T42nd/6th ACC

Rushing: 183.0 ypg- 42nd/4th

Passing: 222.8 ypg- 78th/10th

Total: 405.8 ypg- 50th/7th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 24.3 ppg- 51st/8th

Rushing: 98.0 ypg- 8th/1st

Passing: 231.9 ypg- 77th/9th

Total: 329.9 ypg- 23rd/4th

TO Margin: +2/+0.15/gm- T54th/T6th

A good season means… winning 8+ games and challenging for a spot in the ACC Championship Game. They have one of the more difficult OOC schedules in the nation- FCS Wofford, Cincinnati, at West Virginia (won 38-31 at home last year) to start the season, and then at Notre Dame on Oct 28, with the Irish coming out of an off week. While it will be possible for them to go 4-0 against that slate, 3-1, or even 2-2, is more likely. Within the conference, the Panthers miss Clemson, Miami, NC State, Ga Tech, and Virginia, and they get UNC and FSU at home, with Syracuse in The Bronx, so they only have 3 true ACC road games. This team is a dark horse contender for the ACC Title.

A disappointing season means… only 6 or 7 wins, and a middle 3rd finish in the ACC.

Notes: QB is likely to be grad transfer Phil Jurkovec (1,711 yds, 11 TDs, 8 INTs, 59.5% completions), who previously played at Notre Dame and Boston College; OL returns 3 starters; the Panthers have finished ranked in the AP Poll each of the last 2 years; defense was #2 in FBS in sacks (48, 3.69/game), and has had an FBS best 199 sacks since 2019; K Ben Sauls (20-24 FGs, long of 51 yds) and P Caleb Junko (48.7 avg) both return; MJ Devonshire led ACC with 9.7 avg on PR with 1 TD; Pitt’s 20 wins is 2nd only to Clemson (21 wins) over the last 2 years; Pitt had 3 punts blocked; the Panthers have had at least 3 losses every year since they went 11-1 in 1981 (HC Jackie Sherrill’s last year), and have had only two 10+ win seasons since then: 10-3 in 2009 under HC Dave Wannstedt and 11-3 in 2021 under HC Narduzzi; offense returns 7 starters, defense returns 5; Pitt enters the season on a 5-game winning streak, including a bowl win over UCLA; the Panthers have won 9 of their last 11 true road games, and 11 of their last 13 away from home; 3 of their 9 wins were by 7 points or less, while 2 of their 4 losses were by 7 or less; Pitt has been to 13 bowls in the last 15 years (13 out of 14, not counting 2020), winning just 5; the Panthers were 10-2 in 1905 under HC Arthur Mosse, 10-0 in 1917 under HC Pop Warner, 12-0 in 1976 under HC Johnny Majors, and then had 3 straight seasons of 11-1 from 1979-81 under HC Jackie Sherrill; Pitt finished ranked in the 1st 3 AP Polls in 1936 (8-1-1, #3, won Rose Bowl), 1937 (9-0-1, #1) and 1938 (8-2, #8) under HC Jock Sutherland, then were ranked 4 times under HC John Michelosen: 1955 (7-4, #11, Sugar Bowl loss), 1956 (7-3-1, #13, Gator Bowl loss), 1959 (604, #20), and 1963 (9-1, #4), twice under HC Johnny Majors: 1975 (8-4, #15, Sun Bowl win) and 1976 (12-0, #1, Sugar Bowl win), 4 times in 5 years under HC Sherrill: 1977 (9-2-1, #8, Gator Bowl win), 1979 (#7), 1980 (#2), and 1981 (#4) when they were 11-1 each year, twice under HC Foge Fazio: 1982 (9-3, #10) and 1983 (8-3-1, #18), #17 in 1989 under HC Mike Gottfried (8-3-1, Paul Hackett coached the Sun Bowl win), #19 in 2002 (9-4) and #25 in 2004 (8-4) under HC Walt Harris, #15 in 2009 (10-3) under HC Dave Wannstedt, and #13 in 2021 (11-3) and #22 last year (9-4) under current HC Narduzzi.

23- Boise State Broncos 10-4/8-0

Coach: Andy Avalos (3rd year, 3rd overall)

3-year record/rank: 22-11/.667/23 (-6)

6-year record/rank: 55-19/.743/10 (-2)

10-year record/rank: 94-33/.740/7 (+1)

Last League Title: 2022

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2021 

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 29.5 ppg- 58th/2nd MWC

Rushing: 196.4 ypg- 29th/2nd

Passing: 190.6 ypg- 111th/7th

Total: 386.9 ypg- 69th/3rd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 19.5 ppg- 15th/3rd

Rushing: 124.8 ypg- 31st/4th

Passing: 167.7 ypg- 5th/2nd

Total: 292.5 ypg- 7th/2nd

TO Margin: +3/+0.21/gm- 52nd/6th

A good season means… getting back to 10+ wins, as they did last year, and as they are used to doing (18 times in the last 24 years), and winning the MWC Championship Game. A bonus would be representing the G5 in the NY6 Bowls. Their OOC games are not easy, as they play 2 P5 foes- at Washington and UCF to open the season- and then play FCS North Dakota (12-3 last year) and at Memphis. Within the conference, they avoid Nevada and UNLV, and have to play SDSU, Colo State, Fresno St, and Utah St on the road. Getting to 10 wins may take 14 games, like last year.

A disappointing season means… anything less than 9 wins, and anything less than a berth in the MWC Championship Game.

Notes: QB Taylen Green returns (2,042 yds, 14 TDs, 6 INTs, 61.3% completions, 586 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc, 10 TDs, MWC Freshman of the Year); RB George Holani (1,157 yds, 10 TDs), and RB Ashton Jeanty (821 yds, 7 TDs) form a formidable 1-2 combination in the backfield; K Jonah Dalmas (23-27 FGs, long of 51 yds) and P James Ferguson-Renolds (41.8 avg, 36.7 net) both return; the Broncos allowed 4 special teams TDs; offense returns 9 starters, but defense returns just 5; BSU won 4 of their last 5, including their bowl over North Texas, and 8 of their last 10; the Broncos have lost in the MWC Championship Game the last 3 times they have played- 2022, 2020, and 2018; Boise State has had 25 straight winning seasons, but have only been to 20 bowls in that span, as the 2018 and 2021 games were canceled; BSU has been to 20 bowls in the last 25 years, winning 13; the Broncos have had 18 seasons of 10+ wins in their 27 years playing Division I football, translating to ⅔ of the time, which is pretty impressive; coaches who have led the team to 10+ wins are Dirk Koetter (1999, 2000), Dan Hawkins (2002, 2003, 2004), Chris Peterson (2006-12), Bryan Harsin (2014, 2016-19), and current HC Avalos (2022); Boise State has also finished in the final AP Poll 13 times in the last 21 years, 4 times in the Top 10 (all under HC Peterson), including #5 in 2006 (13-0), #4 in 2009 (14-0), #9 in 2010, and #8 in 2011 (12-1 each year).

22- Texas A&M Aggies 5-7/2-6

Coach: Jimbo Fisher (6th year, 14th overall)

3-year record/rank: 22-12/.647/30 (-11)

6-year record/rank: 46-27/.630/30 (-6)

10-year record/rank: 79-46/.632/28 (-12)

Last League Title: 1998 Big 12

Last Bowl: 2020 Orange Bowl 

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 22.8 ppg- 101st/13th SEC

Rushing: 141.5 ypg- 80th/11th

Passing: 219.4 ypg- 84th/10th

Total: 360.9 ypg- 93rd/12th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 20.7 ppg- 22nd/4th

Rushing: 208.8 ypg- 123rd/14th

Passing: 156.2 ypg- 1st/1st

Total: 365.0 ypg- 52nd/7th

TO Margin: -1/-0.08/77th/9th

A good season means… winning 9+ games (preferably 10+ for the 1st time since going 11-2 in 2012 under HC Kevin Sumlin) and challenging for the SEC West Title and their 1st ever berth in the SEC Championship Game. Their OOC slate has only 1 challenge- at Miami, FL (won 17-9 last year at home) in the 2nd game of the season- sandwiched between games against New Mexico and ULM, with FCS Abilene Christian in November. Their SEC crossover games are at Tennessee and South Carolina, both “winnable” by teams expecting to win the conference. That leaves their division games, and they have Alabama at home, LSU on the road, and Arkansas in Arlington, giving them only 3 true road games in the SEC (the other is Ole Miss). If the offense can improve by at least a TD per game, and their defense can actually stop opponents from destroying them on the ground, the Aggies have a chance at a special season. But that’s a lot of “ifs”.

A disappointing season means… only 6 or 7 wins, or worse, a 2nd losing season in a row. If that happens, could that possibly put HC Fisher on the hot seat, even with a billion dollar buyout? (Yes, dear reader, that is a huge exaggeration…)

Notes: Since 2003, 14 of 20 seasons have ended with 7, 8 or 9 wins, and 5 of the other 6 had fewer wins (11-2 in 2012); HC Jimbo Fisher is a combined 4-5 against Ole Miss and Miss State since 2018, and 0-4 the last 2 years; excluding 2020, the Aggies are just 15-17 in the SEC under HC Fisher; QB Conner Weigman (896 yds, 8 TDs, 0 INTs, 55.3% completions in 5 games) returns, as does Max Johnson (517 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 60.6% completions); last year was their 1st losing season since 2009, and their 1st losing regular season since 2008, both under HC Mike Sherman; K Randy Bond (13-17 FGs, long of 51 yds) and P Nik Constantinou (41.7 avg, 40.5 net) both return; offense returns a whopping 10 starters, as does the defense; the Aggies won their last 2 games, but lost 6 of their last 8; 5 of their 7 losses were by 6 points or less, and 2 of their 5 wins were by 8 points or less; before missing a bowl the last 2 years, TAMU had been to a bowl for 12 straight years (from 2009-2020), winning 7; the Aggies have been to 34 bowls the last 48 years, winning only 15; TAMU was 10-0 in 1919 under HC Dana Bible, 11-0 in 1939 under HC Homer Norton, then had a pair of 10-2 seasons under HC Emory Bellard in 1975 and 1976, followed by the same from HC Jackie Sherrill in 1985 and 1987, but R.C. Slocum led the Aggies to 5 seasons of 10+ wins: 10-2 in 1991, 12-1 in 1992, 10-2 in 1993, 10-0-1 in 1994, and 11-3 in 1998, and their final 10+ win season was in 2012 under HC Kevin Sumlin (11-2); the 1st time TAMU finished in the final AP Poll was as #1 in 1939 (11-0), and they followed that up with #6 in 1940 (9-1) and #9 in 1941 (9-2) under HC Homer Norton, then HC Bear Bryant led the team to finish #17 in 1955 (7-2-1), #5 in 1956 (9-0-1) and 9 in 1957 (8-3): in the 70s, HC Bellard had 4 poll finishes in 5 years between 1974-78, with a high of #7 in 1976, with HC Sherrill having a high of #6 in 1985 (the 1st of 3 straight poll finishes); HC Slocumb led the Aggies into the final AP Poll 10 times over an 11-year span from 1989-1999, with 3 in the Top 10- #7 in 1992 (12-1), #9 in 1993 (10-2), and #8 in 1994 (10-0-1), then the next finish was #19 in 2010 (9-4) under HC Mike Sherman), #5 in 2012 (11-2) and #18 in 2013 (9-4) under HC Sumlin, and finally #16 in 2018 (9-4) and #4 in 2020 under HC Fisher.

21- Kansas State Wildcats 10-4/7-2

Coach: Chris Klieman (5th year, 5th overall FBS)

3-year record/rank: 22-15/.596/T43 (+13)

6-year record/rank: 43-32/.573/T53 (-6)

10-year record/rank: 72-52/.591/40 (-2)

Last League Title: 2022

Last Time Didn’t Go Bowling: 2020

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 32.3 ppg- 37th/6th Big 12

Rushing: 208.3 ypg- 15th/2nd

Passing: 210.5 ypg- 93rd/10th

Total: 418.8 ypg- 41st/6th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 21.9 ypg- 29th/3rd

Rushing: 150.8 ypg- 68th/5th

Passing: 224.4 ypg- 64th/3rd

Total: 375.1 ypg- 64th/4th

TO Margin: +12/+0.88/gm- T8th/1st

A good season means… a 3rd straight season of 8+ wins and a top 3rd finish in the new expanded Big (some might say Bigger) 12. A great season would be 10+ wins and playing in the Big 12 Championship Game again, and perhaps winning it for a 2nd season in a row, but their schedule is much more difficult this year than last. However, their OOC slate is easier with FCS SE Missouri, Troy (instead of Tulane from last year), and at Missouri (won 40-12 last year at home); In the conference, they miss Oklahoma, BYU, WVU, and Cincinnati, so they miss 3 teams expected to finish near the bottom of the conference, and another (OU) they have beaten 3 of the last 4 years. Fortunately, they do get 5 Big 12 home games, including UCF, TCU, Houston, Baylor, and Iowa State, but that means they travel to OSU, TTU, Texas, and rival Kansas. If they can go 3-0 in their OOC games, and 7-2 in the Big 12, they have a decent shot at making the title game again. 

A disappointing season means… only 6 or 7 wins, and a middle 3rd finish in the Big 12. This would be a huge disappointment after winning the conference last year.

Notes: QB Will Howard (1,633 yds, 15 TDs, 4 INTs, 59.8% completions in 9 games) returns; last year was KSU’s 1st conference championship since beating Oklahoma 35-7 in the 2003 Big 12 Championship Game; OL returns all 5 starters; replacing RB Deuce Vaughn’s production will be difficult; both K and P will be new; offense returns 8 starters, but defense returns only 5; the Wildcats won 4 of their last 5 games, losing their bowl to Alabama; 2 of their 4 losses were by 7 points (to Tulane and Texas), and their other 2 losses were to teams that finished #2 and #5 in the Final AP Poll; 3 of 10 wins were by 7 points or less; KSU has been to a bowl 11 of the last 13 years, winning just 4; the Wildcats finished in the AP Top 25 ten out of 11 years from 1993-2003, , then 3 out of 4 years from 2011-14, which was their last time before finishing #14 last year; the 1993 #20 finish was the 1st time KSU ever ended a season ranked in the AP Poll, and their highest finish ever was #6 in 1999 (11-1); last year was the 1st and only time they have ever finished a season ranked under a coach other than Bill Snyder, and was also the only 10+ win season not under HC Snyder, who had 9 such seasons, 7 with 11 wins.

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Come back tomorrow for Part XII, and check out the previous Parts!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!