Paul's Picks 2023 Week 1
Welcome Back!
Last week did not go as well as I had hoped, as I was only 4-3, a winning percentage of only 57.1%. But with a limited number of games, I would have had to go 6-1 to be above my normal 73%. Oh well, there are still many, many games to go. And this week, I'm bound to get better, as there are a LOT of FBS vs FCS games, which history shows us is won by FBS teams greater than 90% of the time. So I just have to do well on the other games. There are 87 games in total this week, which I hope is the most for any week this year, because it took me a long time to prepare for this.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, August 31
Elon @ Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons are 11-0-1 all-time against the Phoenix, and should have no problems this year, though Elon was 8-4 last year. WF wins easily.
Kent State @ UCF- The series is tied at 2 wins apiece, with each team 1-1 at home and away. The Golden Flashes won the 2 most recent matchups, in 2003 and 2004, while the Knights won the 1st 2 meetings, in 1997 and 2002. Not much is expected of Kent State this year, so they can play loose and free, while UCF has quite a bit of pressure with their move into a Power 5 conference. Won't make a difference. Knights win.
Rhode Island @ Georgia State- The Panthers should win big against the Rams (7-4 last year) and run their series record against URI to 2-0.
St. Francis (PA) @ Western Michigan- The Broncos may struggle a bit against the Red Flash, who were 9-3 last year, but should pull out this 1st ever meeting.
NC State @ UConn- The Wolfpack lead the series 3-0, winning in 2003, 2012, and last year, but only last year's victory (41-10) was by more than 7 points. This is the 2nd time they'll be playing in East Hartford. NC State will be looking for their 6th straight opening win; the Huskies will be looking for their 1st since 2019, and their 1st against an FBS foe since 2012 (though they did win their 1st game against an FBS opponent in 2015- it just came in their 2nd game).the Wolfpack was only 2-3 on the road last year, while UConn was 5-1 at home (4-1 against FBS teams). This could very well be an upset, but I expect NC State to pull it out late.
Nebraska @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers lead the series 36-25-2, having won the last 4, and 7 of the last 10, but the series is 7-5 since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten in 2011, with the rest of the meetings happening in 1990 or before. Since 2011, Minnesota is 4-2 in Minneapolis. UM is looking for their 2nd straight opening win; the Huskers are looking for their 1st win in an opener since 2019, and their 1st win in their conference opener since that same year. This game could go a long way in establishing the direction of the season for each of these teams. Minny wins.
South Dakota @ Missouri- These 2 teams have never met before, but the Tigers shouldn't have any problems with the Coyotes, who were 3-8 last year. Mizzou wins big.
Florida @ Utah- The Gators lead the series 2-0, having won 38-29 in 1977 and 29-26 last year, but both of those games were played in Gainesville. This is the 1st time the 2 will meet in Salt Lake City. UF needed that win last year just to make a bowl, and they'll be looking for their 6th consecutive opening day win. The Utes were PAC 12 champions last year, and will be looking for revenge, and hoping to avoid their 2nd consecutive opening loss, and their 3rd in 4 years. I expect a game much like last years, but a lot will hinge on whether Utah QB Cam Rising is fully recovered from the ACL injury he suffered in the Rose Bowl and ready to play. Utah wins in a close one at home, even with their walk-on 3rd string QB as the starter, mainly because of their defense and their running game.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane should demolish the Golden Lions, who were 3-8 last year, in this 1st ever meeting.
North Carolina A&T @ UAB- The Blazers should get the Trent Dilfer era off to a good start with a win over the Aggies (7-4 last year) in this 1st time matchup.
Southern Utah @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils will run the series record to 2-0 when they scorch the Thunderbirds, who were only 5-6 last year.
Friday, September 1
Howard @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles are 3-0 against the Bison in the series. Howard was 5-6 last year. EMU wins easily.
Central Michigan @ Michigan State- Almost every year, a MAC team upsets a Big Ten team. Could this be the one? The Spartans lead the series 8-3, winning the last 4, and all but 1 game (2012) has been played in East Lansing. CMU's 3 wins came in the 1st 2 meetings, in 1991 and 1992, and in 2009. The two teams combined to win 9 games last year, and not much is expected from either team this year either, so both are flying under the radar, as it were. The Chippewas are only one season removed from going 9-4 however, while MSU is one away from being 11-2. Will either team bounce back this year? Spartans win.
Miami (OH) @ Miami (FL)- I was surprised to learn that these teams have actually played 3 times, with the Hurricanes winning each one: 27-13 in 1945, 20-17 in 1946, and 54-3 in 1987. The Redhawks actually beat a P5 team last year (Northwestern), and as good as they might be this year, they're no match for the Canes. The Hawks are looking for their 1st opening win since 2020, and their 1st non-conference opening FBS win since they beat North Carolina 27-21 in 2002. The Canes are looking for their 3rd opening win in the last 4 years. Miami wins. The one in Florida, I mean.
Louisville @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 2-0, having won in 2018 and 2020, with neither game particularly close (66-31 and 46-27). Both teams are vying to win their first opener since 2020, and a win here would go a long way toward bowl eligibility for both programs. The Cardinals are starting fresh with favored son Jeff Brohm returning as HC, and sometimes that leads to a jump in performance. But sometimes it takes a while to get going. Call it a hunch. Jackets win.
Missouri State @ Kansas- The Jayhawks are 2-0 against the Bears in this series. If this were last season, or any season in the last 15 years or so, I would probably say the Bears (5-6 last year) had a chance. But this is a new era in Lawrence. Kansas wins big.
Stanford @ Hawaii- The Cardinal lead this series 3-0, but the games were played in 1946 (18-7), 1972 39-7), and in the 1950 Pineapple Bowl (74-20), all in Honolulu. The Rainbow Warriors did themselves proud last week, only losing by 7 to Vanderbilt in Nashville, and if they can avoid the critical turnovers and continue to shut down the running game, they have a chance in this game. Stanford was only 3-9 last year, and lost their last 5 games, and are starting over under new HC Troy Taylor, who was 30-8 at FCS Sacramento St. This may be one of only 3 realistic chances the Cardinal has at a win this year, but this has upset written all over it, as even though Hawaii was 3-10 last year, they were 3-4 on The Island. Rainbow Warriors get the upset.
Saturday, September 2
Utah State @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes lead this series 2-0, having won 70-14 in 1957 and 48-7 in 2002. Like those 2 games, this one will also be played in Iowa City. The Aggies are coming off a disappointing 6-7 season following their breakthrough 11-3 campaign in 2021, but they'll be going for their 3rd straight opening win, and their 3rd win over a Power 5 team in the last 4 attempts. Iowa will also be going for its 3rd consecutive opening win, and are coming off what was for them a disappointing 8-5 season. I expect this to be closer than their 1st 2 meetings, but the Hawkeyes will win.
Ball State @ Kentucky- The Wildcats won the only matchup between these 2 teams, 28-20, played way back in 2001 in Lexington. UK has won their last 2 openers; the Cardinals will be hoping to avoid losing their 4th in the last 5 years. Ball State has never beaten an SEC team, as they are 0-11 all-time. That trend will continue. UK wins.
Bowling Green @ Liberty- This will be the 2nd meeting between these 2 teams, with the Falcons winning the 1st, 62-3 back in 2003 in Bowling Green. This is the 1st time in an FBS conference for the Flames, and they are coming out of a very successful 4-year run of at least 8 wins each season (overall 34-16), and will be looking for their 4th opening win in a row. BGSU hasn't won their opening game since 2019, and hasn't won their opening game against an FBS team since beating Tulsa to open the 2013 season. However, the Falcons did reach a bowl last year for the 1st time since 2015, and are looking to continue that progress. This game is mostly a tossup, and in those I usually go with the home team, but this time I think BGSU wins due to Liberty having a little bit of an adjustment period to their new coaching staff.
East Carolina @ Michigan- This is a 1st ever meeting between these 2 teams. The Pirates were 8-5 last year, but haven't won their opener since 2016. The Wolverines are almost everyone's favorite (including mine) to make the CFP this year for a 3rd straight season, and should win their 5th opener in a row. HC Harbaugh is suspended for this game (and the next 2) as part of self-imposed punishment for NCAA violations. Won't matter. UM wins big.
Fresno State @ Purdue- This is another 1st time matchup. Both teams had successful seasons last year. The Boilermakers were 8-6, winning the Big Ten West, but ended the season with blowout losses in the Big Ten CG to Michigan and in the Citrus Bowl to LSU, and will be looking for their 3rd opening win in the last 4 years. The Bulldogs were 10-4, winners of the Mountain Division and the MWC CG and bowl game, and are on a 9-game winning streak, and hoping to win their 3rd straight opener. FSU defeated Washington State in the LA Bowl, but had lost 5 of their last 6 to P5 teams before that win. Purdue is breaking in new HC Ryan Walters, who was DC at Illinois. This should be a close game, but Fresno State pulls the mild upset.
La Tech @ SMU- The Bulldogs lead the series 4-2, including a win in the 2017 Frisco Bowl, but the Mustangs won the most recent meeting, 39-37 in 2021. The other 4 matchups were between 2001-2004 when both were members of the WAC. The series is tied 1-1 in Dallas. SMU is trying for their 5th straight opening win; La Tech won their 1st since 2020 last week, defeating FIU. Expect the Ponies to rout the Pups. SMU wins.
Virginia vs Tennessee (Nashville)- These teams haven't played since the 1991 Sugar Bowl, won 23-22 by the Volunteers, and they've met only 3 other times: in 1980 (16-13 UVA), 1940 (41-14 UT), and 1927 (42-0 UT), all in Knoxville, so the Vols lead the series 3-1. The Cavaliers are coming off a season they would just as soon forget, as much for the on-campus tragedy that led to cancelling their last 2 games as for their 3-7 record, so they are eager for a fresh start. The Vols are also eager to get started, but for an entirely different reason- they want to maintain the momentum they began last season with an 11-2 record. UT is pressing for their 4th opening win in a row; UVA hasn't lost an opening game since they lost to Richmond at the start of the 2016 season. This may be close for a half, but I doubt it. Vols win big.
Colorado @ TCU- This is the return meeting of last year's 38-13 TCU win in Boulder in the only other matchup between these 2 teams. Nobody really has any idea what to expect from the Buffaloes after 1st year HC Sanders completely remade the roster, but unless they make a Tulane-like improvement, I don't expect they'll win more than 3 or 4 games at most. The Horned Frogs led a charmed existence last year until they reached the National Championship Game, so they have nowhere to go but down, especially since many of their top players have moved on to the NFL. But they're still better than the Buffs. Frogs win.
Northern Illinois @ Boston College- The Eagles lead the series 3-0 over the Huskies with 2 of the 3 games played in Chestnut Hill, and all 3 games within 10 points: 20-10 in 1971, 17-14 in 2014, and 23-20 in 2017. Both teams are coming off 3-9 seasons, and BC was 2-4 at home while NIU was 2-4 on the road. However, the Huskies are looking for their 3rd consecutive opening win, and 1st win against a P5 opponent in their last 4 tries; the Eagles have only 5 P5 wins in the last 2 years (in 19 tries), and lost their opener last year for the 1st time since 2016. Expect another close game, but BC wins at home.
Arkansas State @ Oklahoma- The Sooners lead the series 2-0, having won in 1992 and 2000 by a combined score of 106-7. The Red Wolves have won 2 straight opening games, but haven't won an FBS opener since defeating Texas A&M in 2008. OU hasn't lost their 1st game since losing to Houston to open the 2016 season. After 9 straight winning seasons, ASU has fallen into a lull, going 9-26 over the last 3 years. The Sooners had their 1st losing season last year since 1998, but they didn't have a losing record in the regular season, so 1998 still remains their last season of record for that particular stat. OU wins easily.
Robert Morris @ Air Force- The Falcons should have no problems winning their 17th consecutive opening game against the Colonials (0-11 last year) as they haven't lost one since losing 31-30 to Tennessee in 2006.
East Tennessee State @ Jacksonville State- The Gamecocks lead the series 1-0, defeating the Buccaneers (3-8 last year) 34-27 back in November of 2018. JSU moves to 2-0 on the year with the win.
Mercer @ Ole Miss- The Rebels are 1-0 all-time against the Bears (7-4 last year, 1-0 this year). Make it 2-0 as Ole Miss wins big.
Northern Iowa @ Iowa State- The Cyclones lead the series against the Panthers (6-5 last year) at 24-6-3, winning by 6 in 2021 and by 3 in 2019. Expect a close game as the gambling probe is still playing out, and more and more starters are not being available to play for ISU, but the Cyclones will pull it out in the 4th quarter.
Akron @ Temple- The Owls lead the series 15-7 and have won the last 6, stretching back to 2007, the last 5 by at least 21 points each. Temple has won the last 2 played in Philadelphia, and is 7-4 overall at home. The series actually began in 1967, and was played 6 times in the 70s, 3 times in the 80s, 6 times in the 90s, and 6 times since 2007. While the Zips will be looking for their 2nd straight season opening win, the Owls haven't won their opener since 2019. This could very well be a close game as the 2 teams were a combined 5-19 last year, but go with Temple at home.
Long Island @ Ohio- Despite their loss last week, the Bobcats will take care of business against the Sharks (4-7 last year) in this 1st ever meeting between the 2 squads.
Portland State @ Oregon- The Ducks are 5-0 in the series and should dispatch the Vikings (4-7 last year) with ease.
UMass @ Auburn- This will be the 1st time these teams have ever met in football, but the Minutemen are 0-10 all-time against SEC teams. UMass looked impressive in their opening win last week against NMSU, but this is a huge step up in competition. However, the Plainsmen better be prepared for a balanced attack. Conversely, the Tigers shouldn't have any problems moving the ball against the Minutemen. War Eagles win.
Ohio State @ Indiana- The Buckeyes lead the series 78-12-5, and have won the last 27 in a row. Indiana's last wins came in 1987 and 1988, and they had a tie in 1990, but since then, the Hoosiers have only played within 10 points of OSU 5 times, with the 42-35 loss in 2020 the most recent. In fact, 5 of Indiana's 12 wins (and one of the 5 ties) came in the 1st 6 meetings between 1901 and 1913, which means the Hoosiers have only defeated the Buckeyes 7 times (with 4 ties) in the last 89 times they have played since 1914- in 1924, 1937, 1943, 1947, 1951, and the aforementioned 1987-88. The ties were in 1902, 1929, 1932, 1959, and 1990, so in no decade since 1914 has Indiana defeated and/or tied OSU more than twice. They won't win this year, either. OSU wins big.
Towson @ Maryland- The Terrapins are 2-0 in the series against the Tigers, who were 6-6 last year. Terps win easily.
Buffalo @ Wisconsin- The Badgers won the only previous matchup, 35-3 in 2006. UW is coming off a disappointing 7-6 season, but is entering this year with a new HC, a new QB, and a new optimism. The Bulls were also 7-6 last year, but that was an improvement from the year before, and they are looking to continue that improvement. This may be one of those sneaky good games. UW wins.
USF @ WKU- The Bulls lead the series 4-3, but the Hilltoppers won the most recent matchup, 45-35 in the 2015 Miami Beach Bowl. They met 4 times between 1997 and 2000, and then twice more in 2009 and 2010, with WKU winning the 1st 2 and USF winning the next 4, and the Bulls holding a 2-1 advantage both at home and on the road. The Tops have won 2 consecutive opening games while USF hasn't won their opener since 2020, and has only 1 FBS win in its last 34 games. WKU wins.
Boise State @ Washington- The Huskies only lead the series 3-2, with each team winning the games at home (2 for UW, 1 for Boise St) and each winning a bowl game- Boise St in the 2012 Las Vegas Bowl and Washington in the 2019 Las Vegas Bowl. UW has won 3 of their last 4 openers, and is coming off of a fantastic 11-2 1st season under HC Kalen DeBoer. The Broncos haven't won their opener since 2020, and were 10-4 last year. I'm very tempted to pick the upset here, but I think the Huskies extend their current 7-game winning streak. UW wins.
Tennessee State @ Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish should get plenty of work for their backups against the Tigers (4-7 last year) in this 1st ever matchup between the teams.
Wofford @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers should have no problems with the Terriers (3-8 last year) in this 1st ever meeting.
Eastern Kentucky @ Cincinnati- The Bearcats lead the series 2-0 over the Colonels (7-5 last year). Cincy wins.
Rice @ Texas- In a series that started in 1914, the Longhorns lead 74-21-1, winning the last 15 from 1995-2021, with only 2 of those wins (1997 and 1999) by 7 points or less (the rest are all by at least 17 points). These old Southwest Conference foes played every year from 1914 until Texas joined the Big 12 in 1996, then played from 1997-99, 2003-08, 2010-11, 2015, 2019, and 2021. Most of Rice's 21 wins came between 1930 and 1960, when they were 17-14 against the Longhorns, including 7-2 between 1930 and 1938. But the Owls have won only once since 1965, 19-17 in 1994, meaning they are 1-43 in their last 44 matchups. UT hasn't lost their opener since 2018; Rice hasn't won theirs since 2018. Both trends continue. Texas wins easily.
Gardner-Webb @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers are 2-0 all-time against the Runnin' Bulldogs (7-6 last year). ASU wins.
Western Carolina @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks will rout the Catamounts (6-5) in this 1st ever meeting.
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State- The Bulldogs are 1-0 against the Lions (9-4 last year), who may give them a battle this year. MSU wins.
California @ North Texas- The Golden Bears won 23-17 in 2019 in the only other time these teams have met, so this is the return visit. Cal was 4-8 last year and is looking for their 2nd straight opening win. The Mean Green was 7-7 last year and played for the CUSA title (they're in the AAC now), but chose to go in a new direction with new HC Eric Morris. UNT hasn't lost their opening game since 2016. I'm going with the Mean Green in a mild upset at home.
Colgate @ Syracuse- Surprisingly, the Orange is only 31-31-5 against the Raiders, who were 3-8 last year. I imagine Syracuse will finally take the lead in this series. Colgate probably should have quit when they were ahead...
Bryant @ UNLV- The Rebels will get their season off to a great start when they defeat the Bulldogs (3-8 last year) in this 1st ever meeting.
UT Martin @ Georgia- The Bulldogs will extend the nation's longest winning streak with a win over the Skyhawks (7-4 last year) in this 1st ever matchup between the 2 teams.
South Carolina State @ Charlotte- The 49ers should have no problems in their 1st ever meeting with the Bulldogs, who were only 3-8 last year (0-1 this year).
Monmouth @ FAU- In yet another 1st time matchup, the Owls will prevail over the Hawks (5-6 last year) in HC Tom Herman's debut in Boca Raton.
The Citadel @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles are 19-5 against the Bulldogs, who were 4-7 last year. GS wins again.
Bucknell @ James Madison- The Dukes should be able to prevail over the Bison (3-8 last year) in yet another 1st time meeting.
Albany @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd will get their season off to a great start with a victory over the Great Danes (3-8 last year, 1-0 this year) in this 1st ever matchup between these 2 teams.
Maine @ FIU- The Panthers should get their 1st ever victory against the Bears (2-9 last year), who lead the series 2-0.
Nevada @ USC- All 5 previous meetings of this series have been played in Los Angeles, and all 5 were played in the 1920's as the Trojans lead 5-0 by an aggregate score of 164-14, with the 66-0 score in 1929 the largest margin of victory, and the 6-0 win in 1922 the smallest. I expect The Wolf Pack will keep USC somewhere between 6 and 66 points, but it will probably be closer to the latter than the former. Trojans win big.
New Mexico @ Texas A&M- The Aggies lead the series 5-0 (last meeting in 2021, 34-0), with only the game in 2008 played in Albuquerque, and only the one in 1926 played in the 20th century. All of the wins were by at least 34 points except for the 2008 contest, a 28-22 squeaker. Nothing is expected from the Lobos, 2-10 last year, last winning season in 2016 (9-4, which was also their last season with more than 3 wins), though they have won their last 2 opening games, and 4 of their last 5- all against FCS teams. Meanwhile, much is expected of Texas A&M, who hasn't lost an opener since 2017 against UCLA. Aggies win big.
Army @ ULM- The Black Knights lead the series 2-0, winning in 2020 and 2022, both times in West Point, so this is their 1st time traveling to Monroe. However, neither game has been closer than 24 points. The Warhawks are looking to make a leap in HC Terry Bowden's 3rd year after 2 straight 4-8 seasons, and a win here would go a long way toward getting to bowl eligibility, as they haven't won their opener since beating Grambling to start the 2019 season. Army lost their opener to CCU last year for the 1st time since losing to Duke to start the 2018 season. I expect this to be much closer than the 1st 2 matchups, but the Black Knights will prevail in the end.
Alabama A&M @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores are 1-0 against the Bulldogs (4-7 last year), but they need to play better than they did last week against Hawaii. Vandy wins easily, and maybe gets their running game going as well.
Washington State @ Colorado State- The series is tied at 1 win apiece with the Rams winning in the 2013 New Mexico Bowl, and the Cougars winning 38-7 in Pullman last year. The only real danger for WSU is if they are looking beyond the Rams, who were 3-9 last year (and haven't won an opener since beating Oregon State in 2017), and anticipating their matchup on the road at Wisconsin. I expect CSU to be much improved and to give the Cougars a battle in Fort Collins, but Wazzu pulls it out in the 2nd half.
Texas State @ Baylor- The Bears lead the series 9-0, and only once (2021) has it been played in San Marcos. Four of the games have been played this century, 2 were played in the 80s, and the other 3 were played in 1916, 1913, and 1909. The Bobcats are starting over yet again, this time with new HC G.J. Kinne, and they'll be trying for their 1st opening win since 2017 (this is their 4th P5 team in the last 6 openers, with the others being SMU and Nevada). Baylor hasn't lost an opener since losing to Liberty in 2017. Both of those trends will continue. Bears win big.
UTSA @ Houston- The Cougars lead the series 2-1, with each team winning all the games on the road. If that pattern holds, it will be time for the Roadrunners to win again. The 1st 2 games were played in 2013 and 2014, and the last one was won 37-35 in 3 OTs by Houston last year. The Cougars need this win to get their new season in the much tougher Big 12 off to a good start, especially if they have any hopes of matching or exceeding last year's 8 wins. UTSA also has a tougher schedule, but only slightly, as they brought 5 of their former CUSA members with them to the AAC, and will have a tough time matching or exceeding their 11 wins from last year as well. This one will go down to the wire like last year. Flip a coin. UTSA wins.
Southeast Missouri State @ Kansas State- The Wildcats should expect a challenge from the Redhawks, 9-3 last year, in this 1st ever meeting. KSU wins.
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys have won the only previous game against the Bears (5-6 last year), and they'll win this one too.
Bethune-Cookman @ Memphis- The Tigers should crush the Wildcats (2-9 last year) in this first time matchup.
Alcorn State @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles lead this series 3-0, and will take care of business again against the Braves, who were 5-6 last year.
Stephen F. Austin @ Troy- The series between the Trojans and the Lumberjacks (6-5 last year) is tied at 3 wins apiece, so Troy will take the lead with a win.
Middle Tennessee @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide leads the series 2-0 (actually 3-0, but the win in 2005 was vacated), with all games played in Birmingham (2002) or Tuscaloosa (2005, 2015). The Blue Raiders were 8-5 last year, and are on a 4-game winning streak, but were blown out in their opener last year by James Madison, 44-7. However, they did upset Miami by 14 in Miami, and have played games at Va Tech, at Michigan, and at Georgia in recent years (all losses). The Raiders are 4-40 all-time against current SEC teams, with 3 of those wins against Vandy. Alabama was 11-2 last year, and feels like they have something to prove. The Tide hasn't started a season 0-1 since losing to UCLA to open the 2001 season. Expect a rout, but MTSU may hang for most of the 1st half. Bama wins big.
Toledo @ Illinois- Surprisingly, this is the 1st time these 2 teams have ever met. The Illini were 8-5 last year, falling just short of winning the Big Ten West, and they'll be striving to build on that record and to win their 3rd opening game in a row. Illinois is 19-6 all-time against current MAC teams. The Rockets were 9-5 last year, winners of the MAC Championship Game and their bowl game, and looking to repeat as such, and will be hoping to win their 4th straight opening game. Toledo is 6-16 all-time against current Big Ten teams. Expect a competitive game, with Illinois winning in the end.
North Carolina vs South Carolina (Charlotte)- The Tar Heels lead the series 35-20-4, but the Gamecocks have won 4 of the last 5 (2007-2021), and 7 of the last 9 (from 1988). These teams were co-members of the ACC from 1953-1971, when the Gamecocks became an Independent, but they continued playing regularly until SC joined the SEC in 1992. UNC dominated the early years, going 10-0-2 from 1902-1923, and then with SC's 1st win in 1924, UNC was 19-7-2 from 1924-1964, so the Heels won 29 of the 1st 40 meetings, with 4 ties. From 1967 to the present, it's been mostly SC, as they lead the series 13-6 since then, with the most recent win being 38-21 in the 2021 Duke's Mayo Bowl, also played in Charlotte. In fact, this will be the 4th straight time these teams have played in Charlotte, having played there also in 2015 (17-13 SC win) and in 2019 (24-20 UNC win). This should be a close, hard fought game between 2 very similar teams, but I believe the better defense wins out. Gamecocks win.
West Virginia @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions have dominated this rivalry to the tune of a 48-9-2 lead in the series, and have won the last 4, and 34 of the last 37 played since 1956, including 1 tie. However, these teams have not played since 1992, ending a series that had been played every year since 1940 (minus 1945 and 1946), and 8 times between 1904 and 1931. One of WVU's wins came in 1925, one in 1931, one in 1942, one in 1944, and then they won 3 consecutive from 1953-1955. The 2 ties came in 1923 and 1958, and the other 2 WVU wins were in 1984 and 1988. The Mountaineers are under immense pressure to improve, or it just may mean the end for HC Neal Brown, and this is a tough game to start with. A blowout here could spell the beginning of the end, especially since WVU hasn't won their opener since 2020. PSU hasn't lost an opener since 2020, and they're under a different kind of pressure as they seek to break through into the Big Ten Championship Game and into the CFP. The Lions are 74-18-2 all-time against current Big 12 teams (most of that against WVU); the Mountaineers are 76-96-2 against current Big Ten teams, with half of those losses against Penn State. If WVU can keep it close, Penn State may start to play tight and make a mistake. However, if the Nittany Lions get out to a lead, it could be over quickly. PSU wins.
Texas Tech @ Wyoming- The Cowboys lead the series 3-2, but the Red Raiders won the last meeting, 49-32 in 1992. They also won the 1st meeting, 39-0 in 1938, with Wyoming winning the 3 in-between: 21-14 in the 1956 Sun Bowl, 10-7 in 1960 in Lubbock, and 22-17 in the only other time the game has been played in Laramie, in 1991. TTU had somewhat of a breakthrough season last year, going 8-5, and the hard part is now repeating that success, or even building on it and improving, especially with everyone's increased expectations. They've won their last 4 openers, but only one was against an FBS team. The Raiders are 48-11-2 against current MWC teams all-time, with most of those games (45) against New Mexico. Wyoming was 7-6 last year, another in a long line of 6, 7, or 8 win seasons. and are 46-86-3 against current Big 12 members, with most of those matchups (79) against BYU, with whom they used to share a conference or 2. While I think this has upset written all over it, I think Texas Tech wakes up in time to pull it out in the 4th quarter. Red Raiders win a close one.
Northwestern State @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns lead the series 38-35-3, but should get by the Demons this year, who were only 4-7 last year.
ODU @ Virginia Tech- This series is tied at 2 games each, with each team 2-0 at home, which means ODU won last year (20-17). The Monarchs started last season decent enough, with wins over VT, Arkansas St, and by 28 points over CCU, and close losses to UVA and Liberty, , but then they lost their last 6, 2 by 7 points or less to finish just 3-9. The Hokies had a similar start, rebounding from their opening loss to ODU to win their next 2, but then losing 7 straight before closing their season with a victory over Liberty (their final game against UVA was canceled) to finish 3-8. The trend of the home team winning will continue. VT wins a close one.
South Alabama @ Tulane- This series is tied at 1 win apiece, with the Jaguars winning 41-39 in New Orleans in 2013 and the Green Wave winning 27-24 in Mobile in 2020. This is one of those sneaky good games between 2 of the biggest surprise teams of the 2022 season. Tulane had one of the biggest turnarounds (if not the biggest) in college football history when they went from 2-10 to 12-2, including winning the AAC Title Game over UCF and the Cotton Bowl over USC. USA improved from 5-7 to 10-3, and while they didn't win their division or their bowl game, it was the 1st winning season in their 11 years at the FBS level, and their 2 regular season losses were by a combined 5 points to UCLA (1 pt) and Troy (4 pts). This should be a fantastic game, but the home team will win this, breaking the nascent pattern. Tulane wins.
Western Illinois @ New Mexico State- The Aggies are 1-0 against the Leathernecks (0-11 last year), and this game will give them a great chance to right everything that went wrong last week against UMass. And there's an awful lot to fix...
Incarnate Word @ UTEP- The Miners are 1-0 against the Cardinals, who were 12-2 last year, but this won't be an easy win, especially if they play like they did last week against JSU, with costly turnovers and missed FGs. I won't be surprised if this is an upset, but I think the Miners turn things around and get their 1st win of the 2023 season.
Northern Arizona @ Arizona- The Wildcats are 15-2 against the Lumberjacks (3-8 last year), and should be able to roll this year as well. UA wins.
Sam Houston @ BYU- This is the 1st ever meeting between the Cougars and the Bearkats, and the 1st game at the FBS level for Sam Houston as they move into CUSA. BYU is also moving into a new conference, the Big 12, and have been playing at the FBS level for a long time. Cougars win big.
Coastal Carolina @ UCLA- The Bruins and the Chanticleers will be meeting for the 1st time, and UCLA better be wary of the upset, as this will not be easy. Surely the Bruins will remember their narrow 1-point victory over South Alabama last year and not take CCU lightly, though they are 2-0 all-time against current Sun Belt teams. This is the 1st time the Chants will ever play a Pac 12 team (and possibly the last...). UCLA wins.
Idaho State @ San Diego State- The Aztecs are 2-0 against the Bengals (1-10 last year), and should make it 3-0 with an easy win.
Sunday, September 3
Northwestern @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights lead the series 3-2, but the Wildcats have won the last 2 played, in 2018 and 2021, which were the only 2 played this century. The other 3, all wins by Rutgers, were played in 1991, 1989, and 1919. NW was only 1-11 last year, is dealing with all sorts of controversy on campus, and is on an 11-game losing streak with an interim HC. The Knights were 4-8 last year, and on a 5-game losing streak of their own, but haven't lost an opener since 2017, when they opened with a loss to Washington at home. This should be a low scoring affair, as both offenses were absolutely horrific last year: Rutgers was held to 17 points or less in 9 games and never scored more than 24 against any FBS opponent, while the Wildcats scored 23 or more 4 times (topping out at 31 in their opener against Nebraska), but were held to single digits in 6 games, including their last 4. Ouch! Rutgers wins.
Oregon State @ San Jose State- The Beavers lead the series 4-2, losing the 1st 2 played in 1979 and 1982, and winning the last 4, played from 1987-2015. The Spartans are coming off of getting routed by USC last week, and now get to see what OSU's new QB brings to the table. The Beavers had one of their best seasons ever last year as they finished 10-3 with a bowl win over Florida, and currently have a 4-game winning streak. OSU wins.
LSU @ FSU (Orlando)- The Seminoles lead the series 8-2, winning the last 5, including 24-23 in last year's opener in New Orleans. LSU's 2 victories came in their 1st meeting in the 1968 Peach Bowl, 31-27, and in 1982 by a score of 55-21. FSU's victories came in 1979 (24-19), 1980 (16-0), and 1981 (38-14), 1983 (40-35), 1989 (31-21), 1990 (42-3), and 1991 (27-16). The Tigers were 10-4 last year and winners of the SEC West and the Citrus Bowl, , but were blown out by Tennessee and Georgia, and had close wins over Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and Arkansas. The Noles were 10-3 with a bowl win over Oklahoma, and their 3 losses all came in a row in midseason, and they are currently on a 6-game winning streak. This should be a really good game that could set the winner up for a CFP run, but would certainly not knock the loser out- but it would reduce the margin of error. LSU is 39-28 all-time against teams currently in the ACC, with most of those games against Miami (10-3) and former SEC member Georgia Tech (7-12). FSU is 74-72-6 against current SEC teams, with most against South Carolina (16-3), Florida (27-37-2), and Auburn (5-13-1). Bayou Bengals get revenge and win a close one at the buzzer.
Monday, September 4
Clemson @ Duke- The Tigers lead the series 37-16-1, winning the last 5, and 28 of the last 33 since 1977. They last met in 2018, a 35-6 Clemson win, but the Tigers are only 6-4 in the last 10 played in Durham, though they've won 4 of the last 5 played there. The Blue Devils actually led the series 11-9-1 through the tie that happened in 1976 (Duke won 7 of the 1st 9, from 1934-1963), but it was in 1977 that Clemson took over the series, winning 28 of the next 33. The big question is whether Duke can repeat their 9-4 season from last year, or whether that was a 1-year aberration. Clemson wins, but don't be surprised if the Blue Devils keep it close for a half, or even longer.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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