Paul's Picks Week Zero 8-24-23
Welcome Back!
College Football is back! The first games are in 2 days, and it's a rather sparse weekend, hence the "Week Zero" moniker. Last year, I finished at 70.3%, which was below my usual average. Over the last 6 years, I am a combined 3,648-1,345, which comes out to 73.1%. Last year was my worst year over this period, while 2019 was my best year, at 76.2%. In both 2017 and 2018, I was at 73%, and 2021 was 73.6%, while the pandemic year of 2020 saw me at what had been my previous low of 71.8%.
You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for right around 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
In this space each week, I will update you on my picking percentage, and whether it went up or down from the previous week. My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 73%, but I think my high has been just over 76%. Last year, I was 70.5% during the regular season, so I was way below my average.
I will also give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
Now... on with the first picks of the 2023 season!
Saturday, August 26
Navy vs Notre Dame (Dublin, Ireland)- The season starts off with an afternoon game from "across the pond". The Fighting Irish lead the series 79-13-1, and have won the last 5 in a row, and 10 of the last 11, but the Midshipmen have won 4 times since 2007 (after losing 43 straight from 1964-2006!), including 2 of the last 5 played at neutral sites (3 if you count ND's 50-10 vacated win in Dublin in 2012). Navy is coming off of 3 consecutive losing seasons, have a new head coach in former DC Brian Newberry, and hasn't won their opener since 2019. The Irish, meanwhile, lost their opener last year for the 1st time since 2016, and haven't lost 2 straight openers since 1985 and 1986, when they lost to Michigan to open the season both years (and finished 5-6 both years under HC Gerry Faust and then Lou Holtz). Don't be surprised if Navy keeps it close for a half, and maybe into the 3rd quarter, but Notre Dame wins.
UTEP @ Jacksonville State- The Gamecocks begin their 1st season at the FBS level with what many think will be an easy game, but UTEP has an opportunity to challenge for the CUSA title this year if they keep improving. The Miners have won their opener 3 of the last 4 years (lost to North Texas last year), but were only 1-5 on the road last year. JSU will be looking for their 2nd straight opening win, and want to get their FBS "career" off to as good a start as James Madison did last year (beat Middle Tennessee 44-7). This should be a fun game pitting UTEP's defense (held 6 opponents to 27 points or less last year) against JSU's offense (scored 34+ in 9 of 10 games against FCS competition). This could really set the tone for both teams, but HC Dana Dimel of UTEP needs this more than HC Rich Rodriguez of JSU. Miners win a close one.
UMass @ New Mexico State- The Aggies lead the series 2-0, having won each of the last 2 years, but the Minutemen played closer last year (23-13) than they did in 2021 (44-27). NMSU has moved into CUSA and are coming off of their 1st winning season since 2017 (their last year in the Sun Belt Conference). UMass has never had a winning season at the FBS level (though they were 7-3 in 1899 and 8-1 in 1901, as well as 5-4 in 1903 and 5-2-1 in 1904), and has never won more than 4 games since moving up from the FCS level in 2012 (4-8 in both 2017 and 2018). The Aggies haven't won an opener since 2014, and haven't won their 1st game against an FBS opponent since 1995 (though they did follow their 2014 opening win against Cal Poly with a win against Georgia State). The Minutemen haven't won their opener since 2018, and haven't won their "FBS" opener since beating Holy Cross in 1901. NMSU wins big.
Ohio @ San Diego State- The Bobcats lead the series 1-0, having won in the 2018 Frisco Bowl by the score of 27-0. Both teams are coming off seasons that almost exactly mirror that 2018 season for each team record-wise. Ohio is looking for their 2nd straight opening win while the Aztecs are looking to avoid their 2nd consecutive opening loss. Ohio won 8 of their last 9 games, with only the loss to Toledo in the MAC Championship Game marring the streak. SDSU won 5 of their last 8, but that includes a loss to Middle Tennessee in the Hawaii Bowl. The Aztecs were 5-2 at home last year; the Bobcats were 3-3 on the road, with 2 of those losses to P5 teams, and the other in OT. Call it a hunch, but I think Ohio pulls the mild upset.
Hawaii @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores won the only meeting 63-10 last year in Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors haven't won an opener since 2020, while Vandy is looking to win their 2nd straight. Expect a score much like last year's. 'Dores win easily.
San Jose State @ USC- The Trojans lead the series 5-0, and only in 2000 and 2001 was the score by less than 3 TDs (34-24 and 21-10 respectively). The teams last played in 2021, with USC winning 30-7, and all 5 games have been held in Los Angeles. USC hasn't lost an opener since 2016 (against Alabama), while the Spartans are looking for their 5th straight opening win (but only one of the previous 4 was against an FBS team). Trojans win big.
FIU @ La Tech- The Bulldogs lead the series 4-1, and are 2-0 in Ruston, but the Panthers won 42-34 in 2 OTs last year. Neither team was very good last year in their respective coach's 1st year, so both are looking to take a leap in the 2nd year in the program, with each about 3-4 years removed from what could be considered success. LT hasn't won an opener since 2020, but hasn't opened at home since 2017 (a win over an FCS team). FIU has won their last 2 openers, but they were both at home against FCS teams; they haven't won an opener against an FBS team since defeating UCF on the road in 2015. The key to this game will be which team has improved their defense the most, as both were absolutely terrible last year on that side of the ball. I think La Tech gets revenge. Bulldogs win at home.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment