Paul's Picks 2023 Week 5
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was once again much better than usual, as I was 54-13, or 80.6% correct. Overall, I am 265-56, or 82.6%, a drop of 0.05% from last week. I typically finish around 73%, but my goal is always to finish at or above 75%.
This week, there are a lot of conference matchups, and only a very few games against FCS opponents- 59 games overall, the fewest so far this season. With conference play in full swing, the games are much harder to predict, so my accuracy is likely to drop. Oh well; I'll enjoy being 80+% for as long as it lasts!
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 28
Middle Tennessee @ WKU- The Hilltoppers lead the series 36-35-1, taking the lead by winning the last 4, and 7 of the last 8, including 35-17 last year. The Blue Raiders haven't won in Bowling Green since 2012. This is a series that began in 1914, played 18 times between 1914-1941 (WKU 12-5-1), played every year from 1952-1991 except for '86 (MT 24-15), then picked up again in 2007, playing every year except 2013, when Middle Tennessee transitioned to CUSA 1 year before WKU (they were in the Sun Belt together from 2009-2012). Since 2007, WKU holds a 9-6 edge in the series. This is the CUSA opener for both teams, and WKU is the favorite to win the conference. Hilltoppers win.
Temple @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane lead the series 4-3, winning the last 2, but the Owls lead 3-2 in games played since Tulsa joined the AAC in 2014, with the Hurricane winning games in 1987 and 1988. Both teams are 2-2 with wins over an FCS team and a MAC team, and each has 2 blowout losses to P5 teams. Tulsa in 2-1 in the series in games played at home, so go with the Golden Hurricane in a mild upset at home.
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston- The Bearkats lead the series 6-5, winning the most recent in 2021, and they are 3-1 in games played in Huntsville. However, their transition to the FBS has been a lot rougher that it has been on the Gamecocks, but it could be argued that SHS has played a much tougher schedule- @BYU, Air Force in Houston, and @Houston, so it's no wonder they are 0-3, scoring only 10 points total in those 3 games. JSU has played UTEP, an FCS school, @CCU, and E Mich, and are 3-1. This will be the Bearkats' 1st FBS home game, and their 1st CUSA game, and they'll be ready. Sam Houston wins a close one.
Friday, September 29
Louisville @ NC State- The Cardinals lead the series 8-4, including 25-10 last year, but the Wolfpack have won 3 of the last 5, and can claim a win in the 2011 Belk Bowl. UL has wins in 1951 and 1994, but all of the other matchups have come since 2007. Each team wants to stay unbeaten in the ACC, and wants to be the challenger to FSU in the Championship Game, and both have the opportunity, as neither plays the Seminoles during the regular season. The winner would get the inside track toward that spot, but would be especially helpful to Louisville, as the Cardinals also don't play Clemson, and would only have possible ACC losses remaining at a struggling Pitt, vs Duke at home, and @Miami. NC State still has games @Duke, vs Clemson, Miami, and UNC at home, and at Wake Forest. I'm going to assume any games against Virginia and Va Tech are wins. This should be a fierce battle, Cardinals win.
Utah @ Oregon State- The series is tied 12-12-1, with the Utes winning 6 of the last 7, including 42-16 last year, but the Beavers won 42-34 in 2021, the last time it was played in Corvallis. Since Utah joined the Pac 12 in 2011, they lead the series 7-3. The 1st meeting took place in 1931 in Portland, with OSU winning 12-0, They then played 3 times in the 40s (1-1-1 record), twice in the 50s (2-0 OSU), 4 times in the 60s (3-1 OSU), in 1970 (OSU win), twice in the 90s (2 Utah wins), and they split their meetings in 2007 and 2008. The Beavers suffered their 1st loss of the 2023 season last week when they went on the road and lost to Washington State by 3, but otherwise have played well. The Utes are unbeaten, but have two 7-point wins over Baylor and UCLA, the former on the road. Both have good defenses, but OSU has the better offense. If Utah is going to lose a game early this season, this is it. OSU pulls the upset.
La Tech @ UTEP- The Bulldogs lead the series 15-3-1, winning 9 of the last 10 (since 2013), including 41-31 last year, but the Miners won the last time it was played in El Paso, 19-3 in 2021. The teams played 4 straight years from 1939-1942, with LT taking a 2-1-1 lead in the series, but they didn't play again until 1991 (a Bulldog win), and then not again until 2001-2004 (3-1 LT). UTEP is 1-4, winning only their game against an FCS team, and are 0-1 in CUSA, losing their opener to FBS newcomer Jacksonville State. The Bulldogs are 2-3, with an FCS win and a CUSA win over FIU. Both were overmatched in losses to P5 teams, and also have competitive losses to Mountain West and AAC teams. I have no idea who will win this game. Flip a coin? Go with the home team? Miners win a close one.
Cincinnati @ BYU- One of these teams will be the 1st Big 12 newcomer to win a conference game. The Cougars lead the series 2-0, winning back-to-back games in 2015 and 2016, each by 14+ points. The Bearcats started the season well, but then lost to rival Miami, Oh in OT, but played Oklahoma tough in a 14-point loss at home. BYU was 3-0 with a win on the road at Arkansas before losing by 11 to Kansas, also on the road. Expect another 14+ point win by BYU at home.
Saturday, September 30
USC @ Colorado- The Trojans lead the series 16-0, winning in 1927, twice in the 1960s, twice in the Aughts, and every year since the Buffaloes joined the Pac 12 in 2011. Only 4 times have the Buffs played closer than 11 points, most recently in 2019 when they lost 35-31 in Boulder. This will be more of the same. USC wins big.
Penn State @ Northwestern- The Nittany Lions lead the series 15-5, winning the last 2, but the teams have split the last 4. All of the games have been played since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993. The Wildcats surprised everybody by coming back from a 21-point 4th quarter deficit and beating Minnesota in OT last week, and at 2-2/1-1, they have an actual chance to be a factor in the Big Ten west, as every team except Wisconsin has at least 1 conference loss already. However, PSU has looked like one of the best teams in the nation in the early going, and have dominated their 1st 4 opponents. They won't be challenged until they travel to Ohio state on Oct 21. Penn State wins easily.
Florida @ Kentucky- The Gators lead the series 53-20, but the Wildcats have won the last 2, and 3 of the last 5, including 26-16 last year in The Swamp. The 2021 win was the 1st win for UK in Lexington since 1986. The Wildcats actually dominated the early part of the series, winning 12 of the 1st 16 played between 1917 and 1956, but from 1957 to 2017, it was almost all Florida, except for a brief span from 1974-1979 when UK won 4 out of 6. Other than those 6 years, the Cats won only 1 other time between 1957-2017, and that was in 1986.This year, the Gators are 3-1 with only the opening loss to Utah marring their record, but they looked less than stellar last week against a poor Charlotte team after looking spectacular vs Tennessee. UK, on the other hand, is undefeated, but seemed to struggle on offense before finally putting it together the last 2 weeks. UK makes it 3 in a row over UF.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas (Arlington)- This is the 3rd straight year that this game is taking place in Arlington. The Razorbacks lead the series between these old Southwest Conference foes 42-34-3, but the Aggies have won 10 of the last 11, including 23-21 last year. These teams 1st played in 1903, played again in 1910 and 1912, and then began playing almost every year beginning in 1927 (skipping 1931-33) until UA joined the SEC in 1992, but they picked back up in 2009 even though TAMU didn't join the SEC until 2012. This will be the 12th time since 2009 they've played in Arlington, with A&M leading 7-4 in games played there. This game is rarely a blowout, so expect a close one, especially since both teams need to win this game to stay in the SEC West race. Aggies win, despite being without the services of starting QB Conner Weigman.
Louisiana @ Minnesota- I was surprised to learn that these teams have actually played before, and not just once or twice, but 3 times, with the Golden Gophers winning all 3, which were played from 2001-03. This will be the 3rd time they play in Minneapolis. The Gophers started the season strong, but have lost their last 2 games. However, they are 2-0 at home. The Ragin' Cajuns are 3-1, but haven't really played anyone, beating an FCS team, a MAC team, and a former CUSA team now in the AAC, and their loss is to fellow SBC member ODU. Minnesota wins, but the Cajuns may keep it close.
Utah State @ UConn- The Aggies lead the series 2-0, winning each of the last 2 years. If the Huskies are going to get their season turned around like they did last year, it needs to start here, as USU is just 1-3, though they've been semi-competitive in losses to Iowa State, Air Force, and James Madison. UConn is 0-4, but have losses to 2 P5 teams, an undefeated Ga State, and to a mediocre FIU. This is a tough one to pick, but I still think the Huskies can get to 4 or 5 wins, but 6 may be out of reach. UConn in a slight upset.
Clemson @ Syracuse- The Tigers lead the series 9-2, with a 9-1 lead since the Orange joined the ACC in 2013, but Syracuse did win the 1996 Gator Bowl 41-0. And the Orange do come into this game with the better record, 4-0/0-0 to 2-2/0-2, and their only win in the series (outside of the bowl win) was at home in 2017. But their wins have come against W Mich, Army, an FCS team, and at Purdue. Then again, Clemson has lost to the only 2 decent teams they have played- Duke and FSU, a combined 8-0- and have only beaten an FCS team and FAU, so we don't really know how good either of these teams are. But I have a lot more faith in HC Dabo Swinney than I do HC Dino Babers, but I could be wrong, Tigers win a close one on the road.
UAB @ Tulane- The Blazers lead the series 6-5, winning the last 2. Including the 28-21 win in their last meeting in 2021 in New Orleans, UAB has won 2 of the last 3 played in The Big Easy. The teams 1st played in 1999, and played 9 times through 2012, as they were both in CUSA together from 1999-2013, and I assume they will play regularly again as they are now both in the AAC together. The Green Wave are off to a 3-1 start, with their only loss to Ole Miss; UAB is 1-3 with only a win over an FCS squad, and losses to Georgia and 2 Sun Belt teams, all by at least 14 points. Tulane wins.
South Alabama @ James Madison- The Jaguars and Dukes have never met on the gridiron before, and this should be an intriguing matchup. SA is only 2-2, beating an FCS team and Oklahoma State (in Stillwater!), and losing their opener to Tulane, and inexplicably losing last week to Central Michigan at home. JMU is again off to a hot start, with a win over an FCS team, and 3 road wins over Virginia, Troy, and Utah State, so this is their 1st game in Harrisonburg since Sep 7. The question is which is the real Jaguars- the one that upset OSU on the road, or the one that lost to a terrible CMU at home? So many games this week seem to be tossups, at least in my mind. I'm going with the home team. JMU wins.
Buffalo @ Akron- The series is tied 11-11, with the Bulls winning the last 5, including 23-22 last year, and the last 2 played in Akron. The teams have played almost every year since 1999, skipping 2012-13 for some reason. They're a combined 1-7 this season, with the Zips getting the lone win over an FCS team by 3. In comparing the teams, Buffalo has lost to an FCS team by 3, and played only 1 other team, Louisiana last week (lost 45-38 on the road), to within less than 21 points. Akron, on the other hand, has a loss to Temple by 3, and lost to Indiana last week in 4 OTs, both on the road. Zips win a close one at home.
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas lead the series 63-31-6, winning 3 of the last 4, but the Eagles won 38-19 last year. However, EMU hasn't won in Mt. Pleasant since 2011, losing 5 straight there. This series began way back in 1902, and has been played every year since 1972. They also played almost every year between 1917-1963, but I have no idea why they took an 8-year hiatus between 1964-1971. They played an additional 6 times between 1905 and 1912. I was high on the Eagles when the year started, but they have looked completely incompetent on offense, scoring 25 points in 3 games against FBS competition, though their defense is decent, allowing only 21 ppg to those same teams. CMU has done OK on offense against some tough competition, averaging 19.3 ppg against Michigan State, Notre Dame, and South Alabama, all on the road, but their defense has given up 30+ to each team (and 42 to an FCS team). I guess we'll find out which is worse, the Eagles' offense or the Chips' defense. CMU wins.
Virginia @ Boston College- The Eagles lead the series 6-1, including a win in the 1994 Carquest Bowl, but the Cavaliers won the most recent meeting, 43-32 in 2020 in Charlottesville, so they've never won in 3 previous tries in Chestnut Hill, dating back to their 1st meeting in Nov of 1963. BC is 1-3, with losses to N Illinois in OT, by 2 to FSU, and by 28 at Louisville, and a 3-point win over FCS Holy Cross. UVA is 0-4, but with a 1-point loss to James Madison and a loss by 3 points last week to NC State. Both losses on the road were by 28+. Yet another coin flip game. Wahoos win.
Miami, Oh @ Kent State- The Redhawks lead the series 51-18, winning 3 of the last 4, including 27-24 last year, but the series is 5-5 over the last 10 meetings, and the Golden Flashes have won 4 of the last 5 played in Kent. However, KSU is off to a rough start under new HC Kenni Burns, as the transfer portal left the cupboard rather bare, while Miami is 3-1 with a win in OT over rival Cincinnati. Redhawks win easily.
Arizona State @ California- The series is tied 17-17, with the Sun Devils winning the last 2, and 3 of the last 4, but the teams haven't played since 2019, and all but one of the meetings have come since ASU joined the Pac 8 (with Arizona, making it the Pac 10) in 1978 (Cal won in 1976). The Golden Bears have actually dominated since 2002, winning 9 of 13. This year, Cal is 2-2/0-1, with wins over FCS Idaho and at North Texas, and losses by 4 to Auburn and by 27 at Washington. ASU is only 1-3, and started off with a 3-point win over an FCS team, but then lost by 12 to a mediocre (at best) Oklahoma State, got shutout by Fresno State, and played USC close before succumbing in the end 42-28, showing their 1st real sign of confidence and competence. If that carries over, they could pull the upset, but the Bears have won 2 of the last 3 played in Berkeley. Make it 3 of the last 4. Cal wins.
Georgia @ Auburn- The Dawgs lead the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry 63-56-8, winning the last 6, including in the 2017 SEC Championship Game, but they've also won 15 of the last 18 since 2006. The teams 1st met in 1892, and have played near continuously since, missing only in 1893, 1897, 1917-1918 (WWI), and 1943 (WWII). The series originally was played in Atlanta (1st 10 meetings), then Macon (4 times), then twice each in Savannah and Montgomery, then alternated between Athens and Atlanta for 4 years, and then, beginning in 1916, was played in Memorial Stadium in Columbus (where I grew up, on the Alabama border) every year through 1958, except for 1929 (played in Athens for the opening of the brand new Sanford Stadium) and 1948 (also played in Athens). The game was finally played in Auburn in 1960, and since 1959, has been alternated between Athens and Auburn every year, except for 2012 and 2013, when it was played in Auburn for 2 straight years due to SEC expansion. In my 4 years at UGA, the Plainsmen are one of only 2 teams the Bulldogs had a losing record (1-3) against, with Penn State (0-1, with the loss in the 1983 Sugar Bowl) being the other. The War Eagles suffered their 1st loss of the season last weekend against Texas A&M, and have not been particularly effective on offense. However, the Tigers have done fairly well on defense, so if they can keep it close into the 4th quarter, they'll have a chance to pull the huge upset. That's a big if. Dawgs win.
Michigan @ Nebraska- Like UGA, the Wolverines haven't really played anyone, but at least the Dawgs are playing a rival this weekend. It would be hard to classify the Cornhuskers as a rival, as even though they 1st played in 1905, they've only played 12 times, with UM leading the series 7-4-1, winning the last 3, and the Wolverines are 4-2 in the series since NU joined the Big Ten in 2011. Nebraska does own a victory in 1963, and in the 2005 Alamo bowl, and the teams played to a 6-6 tie in 1911, but UM has the other 3 wins, including the 1986 Fiesta Bowl. The Huskers are averaging 12 ppg in games against P5 teams; Michigan is giving up 5.75 ppg in all games (7 pts in only game against P5 opponent). Looks like a mismatch made in heaven for the Wolverines. Michigan wins big, enhancing their 1-1-1 record in Lincoln.
Kansas @ Texas- The Longhorns lead the series 17-4, but it's 17-2 since they joined the Big 12 in 1996. KU's wins were in 1901, 1938, 2016 (all in Lawrence) and 2021 in Austin. Both teams are undefeated, with Texas scoring at least 31 points in each game while holding 3 of 4 foes to 10 points or less (Alabama scored 24). The Jayhawks have also scored at least 31 in each game, but they've allowed each of their FBS opponents to score between 23 and 27 points. This should be a fantastic game, and I'm very tempted to go for the upset, but I just can't do it. Horns win a close one, but if they're looking ahead to next week's game against Oklahoma, they could be in for a rude awakening.
Indiana @ Maryland- The Hoosiers lead the series 7-4, but the Terrapins have won the last 2, including 38-33 last year, as 6 of the last 7 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. Since the Terps joined the Big Ten in 2014, IU leads 5-4, as the Hoosiers won games in 1934 and 1935. In games played in College Park, UM trails 2-3. Maryland comes into this game 4-0, winning every game by at least 18 points, while Indiana is 2-2, barely scraping by Akron (in 4 OTs) last week and playing a very good Louisville team within 7. Don't be surprised if IU makes a game of this, but the Terps will pull away in the 2nd half. Turtles win.
Illinois @ Purdue- The Boilermakers lead the series 47-45-6, taking the lead by winning the last 3, and 6 of the last 7, including 31-24 last year. The Illini had a fantastic defense last year, but they've allowed 30+ points in 3 out of 4 games so far this year, and their offense has been held to 23 or less in 3 out of 4 games as well. Purdue has had its own problems scoring, as each game they have scored less than the game before, but their defense has been allowing an increasing amount of points since the 2nd game, which seems like a bad combination. While the Boilermakers have won 2 of the last 3 in West Lafayette, the Illini have won 3 of the last 5 there. This should be a good, competitive game. Illinois wins.
Wagner @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights are 1-0 against the Seahawks, and they will run their 2023 record to 4-1 with a victory in New Brunswick.
Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 1-0, having won 63-17 back in 2018. The Falcons are looking for their 1st FBS win of the season, but GT will move their record to 3-2, their 1st time over .500 since they were 5-4 (and eventually 7-4) in 2018. Jackets win big.
Houston @ Texas Tech- The Cougars lead the series 18-15-1, but the Red Raiders have won the last 5, including 33-30 last year, and 10 of the last 11 (since 1991). These teams played every year as co-members of the old Southwest Conference from 1976-1995, and during that time, UH had a 12-7-1 edge. From 2009 to present, TTU leads 5-1. Prior to 1976, the teams played 8 times between 1951 and 1958, with the Cougars winning 5 of the 8. So far, these are 2 of the more disappointing teams in the Big 12. The Red Raiders were expected by many to be a surprise contender; instead, they are 1-3, with upset losses to Wyoming in 2 OTs and to West Virginia on the road, and an expected (but still disappointing) loss to Oregon at home, and their only win over an FCS school. While Houston wasn't expected to contend, they also didn't expect to lose to Rice, struggle with UTSA, or get blown out by TCU. TTU gets their 1st FBS (and Big 12) win, as the Cougars haven't won in Lubbock since 1990.
Baylor @ UCF- The Knights lead the series 1-0, winning the 2014 Fiesta Bowl 52-42. The UCF defense had played well this season until giving up 44 to Kansas State last week, but I don't think the Bears are capable of scoring that many points, as they've been held to 13 or less twice. The Knights, meanwhile, have scored 31+ three out of 4 games, with Baylor allowing 38+ in 2 of their 3 contests against FBS foes. UCF wins.
Arkansas State @ UMass- The Red Wolves won 35-33 last year in Jonesboro, the only time these teams have met on the field of play. After winning their opening game against NMSU, the Minutemen have lost 4 straight: to Auburn, to 2 MAC teams, and to New Mexico in OT. Their last 2 losses have been by a combined 5 points. ASU started the season with 2 losses to Oklahoma and Memphis, but have since beaten an FCS team and Southern Miss. A win here could jump start a UMass turnaround, but the Wolves need a win to have a chance at a bowl berth, so this is a big game for both teams. ASU wins a close game.
USF @ Navy- The Midshipmen lead the series 2-1, as each team has won all the games played at home, so this will be the 3rd of 4 played in Annapolis. They last played in 2019, with Navy winning 35-3. Both teams started the season slow, but have since looked much improved the last 2 games. The Bulls lost to WKU in their opener, then beat an FCS team, played Alabama to a near standstill, then beat Rice to get their 1st FBS and AAC wins since 2021. Navy got blown out by Notre Dame in Ireland, then shut out an FCS team and barely lost to a very good Memphis team. The Midshipmen were off last week so they should be extra prepared for this game. Navy wins a close one.
ODU @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd lead the series 7-1, winning the last 5, with the ODU win coming in 2016, as all games have occurred since 2014. Marshall is 3-0, and hoping to start SBC play with a win before going on the road next week to take on NC State. The Monarchs are 2-2, with losses to 2 ACC teams, but already have a conference win over Louisiana. ODU has never won in Huntington, and they won't this year. The Thundering Herd wins.
Ball State @ Western Michigan- The Broncos lead the series 27-22, winning 37-30 last year, but the Cardinals have won 2 of the last 3, and 3 of the last 5, including the last one played in Kalamazoo in 2021. WMU is 1-3, with 2 P5 losses, a win over an FCS team, and an 18-point loss to MAC power Toledo. BSU is also 1-3, with a win over an FCS team, 2 losses to SEC teams to open the season, and a loss to Georgia Southern. With these results, it's difficult to tell the relative strengths of the 2 teams. Go with the Broncos at home.
Northern Illinois @ Toledo- The Rockets lead the series 33-17, winning 2 of the last 3, including 52-32 last year, but the Huskies have won 3 of the last 5, including the last 2 played in Toledo. However, Toledo is 3-1, with a last second loss to Illinois, while NIU is 1-3, with an OT win over Boston College, but a loss to FCS Southern Illinois. I expect the Huskies to give the Rockets a tough time, but Toledo pulls out the win in the 4th quarter.
Missouri @ Vanderbilt- The Tigers lead the series 10-4-1, winning the last 3, including 17-14 last year. Mizzou leads the series 8-3 since joining the SEC in 2012. The other 4 games were played in 1895 and 1896 (both Missouri wins), and in 1957 (7-7 tie in Nashville), and 1958 (12-8 Vandy win in Columbia). Vandy's last 2 wins, in 2015 and 2019, have come in Nashville, and if that every-4-year trend continues, they should be due for a win at home this year. The Commodores started the year 2-0, but have lost their last 3 games. Mizzou is 4-0, with wins over Kansas State and Memphis. As long as the Tigers aren't looking ahead to LSU next week, they should take care of business in this game. Mizzou wins.
Boise State @ Memphis- The Broncos have had one of the toughest schedules to start the season, as they have losses to Washington and UCF and wins over an FCS team and San Diego State, and now must travel to take on the Tigers, who are 3-1 with a loss last week to undefeated Missouri. This one could go either way, but I like the direction Boise State is moving in. Broncos win a close one over the Tigers in this 1st time matchup.
Hawaii @ UNLV- The Rainbow Warriors lead the series 19-13, winning 4 of the last 5, including 31-25 last year, but the Rebels have won 6 of the last 7 played in Las Vegas. UNLV has been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, with a 3-1 record, a win over a P5 opponent, and their only loss to Michigan on the road. A win here would get them 2 away from bowl eligibility, and get them off to a 1-0 start in the conference for the 2nd year in a row. Hawaii is 2-3, with both wins at home, so they are 0-2 on the mainland. UNLV wins.
New Mexico @ Wyoming- The Cowboys lead the series 39-36, winning 4 of the last 6, including 27-14 last year, but the Lobos have won 2 of the last 3, including the last time they played in Laramie. Wyoming has played very well to start the season, but I keep waiting for them to lay an egg against a lesser team, as they always seem to do. UNM is actually 2-2, but their wins are versus an FCS team and in OT over UMass, and they're the only FBS team to lose to New Mexico State. This is exactly the type of game Wyoming would lose in the past, but I think this is the best team they've had in many years. Cowboys win.
LSU @ Ole Miss- The Tigers lead the series 65-41-4, winning 6 of the last 7, including 45-20 last year, but the Rebels won 31-17 in 2021, the last time they played in Oxford. The teams 1st played in 1894, and have played almost every year since, taking a year off every now and then (1895, 1897-98, 1900, 1905, 1908, 1910-11, 1913, 1918, 1920, 1922-25, 1932, 1935, and 1943-44). They even played a 2nd time in the 1959 season, with Ole Miss winning the 1960 Sugar Bowl 21-0. LSU has recovered from their opening loss to FSU, but struggled to get by Arkansas at home last weekend. The Rebs suffered their 1st loss last week, at Alabama, after looking formidable the 1st 3 weeks of the season. Only 1 of the last 8 matchups have been decided by less than 14 points, so the key in this game may be getting a lead, and the winning team has scored 38 points in 7 of the last 8 contests. First to 38 wins! Bayou Bengals put it together and win on the road.
Oregon @ Stanford- The Cardinal lead the series 50-35-1, but the Ducks have won 3 of the last 4, including 45-27 last year, but Stanford won the last time they played in Stanford. They 1st played in 1900, but didn't start playing regularly until 1923. UO is unbeaten, and have won 3 of their 4 games by at least 36 points each, but in their only road game to Texas Tech, they only won by 8. The Cardinal is 1-3, but in their 2 home games, they are 0-2, losing by a combined 4 points. They may keep it close into the 2nd quarter, but Oregon wins big.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma- This is one of the most lopsided series in all of college football, as the Sooners lead 79-7-2, winning the last 3, including 27-13 last year and 27-21 in the 2020 Big 12 Championship Game. The Cyclones have wins in the very 1st meeting in 1928, 1931, 1960 and 1961 (their only back-to-back wins), 1990, 2017, and 2020. The ties were in 1936 and 1981. Of those wins and ties, 4 of the 7 wins and 1 of the 2 ties were in Norman. ISU may actually win 2 or 3 conference games this year, as their defense is very good, but this won't be one of them. OU wins.
East Carolina @ Rice- The series is tied at 2 wins apiece, with each team 2-0 at home, and all the games played between 2005 and 2010. This year, ECU is 1-3, with the Pirates winning their 1st game last week over an FCS team, and their losses to Michigan, Marshall, and App St, all by at least 15 points each. The Owls have been up and down, with wins over an FCS team and Houston (in 2 OTs), and losses to Texas and USF, both on the road. Rice wins at home.
Abilene Christian @ North Texas- The Mean Green are 16-8-1 versus the Wildcats, and with a week off to prepare, should win this one easily.
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles lead the series 5-4, but the Chanticleers have won the last 3, including 34-30 last year. GS leads 2-1 in Statesboro. CCU is only 2-2, with a win over an FCS team and Jacksonville State, a team that was an FCS team last year, and their 2 losses are to UCLA and to fellow SBC East member Georgia State. The Eagles are 3-1, without any signature wins, and their only loss is to Wisconsin. The Chants haven't started 0-2 in the Sun Belt since 2019 (actually started 0-3), the last time they had a losing record (5-7); GS is is fighting for their 1st winning season since 2020, when they were 8-5, but they haven't started 1-0 in the conference since 2018. Eagles get the mild upset.
Troy at Georgia State- The Trojans lead the series 5-4, but the Panthers have won the last 3, including the last meeting in 2021, 37-10. GSU also leads 3-2 in games played in Atlanta, including the last 2. This year, the Panthers are 4-0 for the 1st time in their short history, and and a win here would extend that record, and set a record for their longest winning streak at 5 games. Troy, 12-2 a season ago, has already lost 2 games, just like last year, and so will be looking to win their last 11, again just like last year. And just like last year, they lost their opening conference game, this time to JMU instead of App State. The Panthers have looked really good on offense, and pretty good on defense, but the toughest team they've faced so far has been CCU. The Trojans have played well on defense (except against Kansas State), and not so well on offense. This will be strength on strength, as GSU is 38th in rushing offense, while Troy is 21st in rushing defense. This will be the key to the game. Panthers win in a mild upset.
Texas State @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles lead the series 2-1, with the road team winning each game, including USM 20-14 last year. The Bobcats are 3-1 this year, with wins over Baylor and Nevada, and a 7-point loss to UTSA. The Golden Eagles are 1-3, with a win only over an FCS team, and losses to FSU, Tulane, and fellow SBC West member Arkansas State. This could be a close game. Bobcats win.
Utah Tech @ Colorado State- The Rams should take care of the Trailblazers in this 1st time meeting.
Notre Dame @ Duke- The Fighting Irish lead the series 5-2, and have won the last 2, including 27-13 in the last meeting in 2020 in South Bend, but it's 1-1 in Durham, with the Blue Devils winning in 1961, with their other win in South Bend in 2016. The Irish lost their 1st game last week in devastating fashion against Ohio State when the Buckeyes scored on the last play of the game, as the Gold Domers only had 10 players on the field for each of the last 2 plays of the game. Duke is 4-0, with signature wins over Clemson and Northwestern, and all 4 of their wins are by at least 21 points. Last year, Notre Dame followed up their loss to OSU with a loss to Marshall. History repeats itself. Duke wins in an upset at home.
South Carolina @ Tennessee- The Volunteers lead the series 28-11-2, winning 3 of the last 4, but the Gamecocks won 63-28 last year. SC won the very 1st meeting in 1903, but the Vols went 7-0-2 the next 9 times they played, between 1916 and 1971, and they've played every year since 1992, when the Gamecocks joined the SEC. Again, SC won the 1st time as a member, but UT won the next 12, but since 2005, it's been even at 9 wins each. The Vols have played well in every game except at Florida, and are 2-0 at home; SC is 2-2, but 0-1 on the road and also lost at a neutral site in their opener. Tennessee wins and gets revenge for being routed last season.
Michigan State @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes lead the series 24-22-2, and won the last meeting 49-7 in 2020, but the Spartans have won 3 of the last 4, including 16-13 in the 2015 Big Ten Championship Game. This is an interesting matchup, as MSU has allowed an average of 36 ppg to P5 opponents, but Iowa is scoring just 10 ppg against P5 foes. The Spartans aren't any better on offense, as they averaged 8 ppg against the 2 P5 teams, with the Hawkeyes' defense giving up 22 ppg. These teams 1st played in 1953, when Michigan State joined the Big Ten, and the Spartans have won 2 of the last 3 played in Iowa City, but Iowa wins this one, probably with a score like 10-9.
Charlotte @ SMU- The Mustangs are 2-2, but have lost the only 2 games of consequence. The 49ers are 1-3, with a win over an FCS team, and 2 losses to P5 teams and a loss to Ga State. SMU wins big as they welcome Charlotte to the AAC in this 1st time matchup.
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech- This series is tied 11-11, with the Panthers winning the last 3, including 45-29 last year. The teams played every years as co-members of the Big East from 1993-2003, with VT holding the 7-4 edge, and then they rekindled the rivalry in 2012, a year before Pitt joined the ACC, with the Panthers having the 7-4 advantage since then. The Hokies are 1-3, with a win over ODU opening weekend, but losses to Purdue, Rutgers, and Marshall, 2 of those by 7 points each. The Panthers are also 1-3, but their lone win is over an FCS team, and they have a 6-point loss to Cincinnati, and losses to West Virginia and UNC by double digits. While VT has won 2 of the last 3 in the series played in Blacksburg, Pitt won the most recent, played in 2021 by a score of 28-7. This season, the Hokies are 1-1 at home and the Panthers are 0-1 on the road. Flip a coin. Pitt wins a close, low scoring game.
West Virginia @ TCU- The Mountaineers lead the series 7-5, winning 4 of the last 5, but the Horned Frogs won 41-31 last year. Since both teams joined the Big 12 in 2012, WVU leads 6-5, with their other win coming in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl. The Mountaineers are 3-2 in games played in Fort Worth, and have won the last 2 played there. TCU is 3-1 this year, losing their opener in a stunner to Colorado, and then winning their next 3 over an FCS team, at Houston, and over rival SMU. WVU has followed the exact same path, losing their opener at Penn State, then beating an FCS team, Pitt, and Texas Tech. Each team is 1-0 in the Big 12, so a win keeps them at the top of the conference, at least for the moment. WVU wins in an upset!
Appalachian State @ ULM- The Mountaineers lead the series 6-1, winning the last 3, including the last meeting, 59-28 in Boone in 2021. ULM's only win came in 2017 in Monroe. App State is 2-2, with close losses to UNC (in 2 OTs) and to Wyoming last week. The Warhawks are much improved (it seems) this year, as they are 2-1, with a win over Army, and they are coming out of an off week. Expect ULM to put up a fight, but ASU prevails.
San Diego State @ Air Force- The Falcons lead the series 20-18, including a 13-3 win last year, but the Aztecs have won 9 of the last 10 (since 2010), including 27-24 in the 2015 Mountain West Championship Game. The teams 1st played in 1980, when Air Force joined SDSU in the WAC, and they played their game in 1981 in Tokyo, Japan (that was a thing for a few years, called the Mirage Bowl). The Falcons are flying high in 2023 at 4-0, winning every game by at least 10 points, but their FBS opponents so far are a combined 2-12. The Aztecs are only 2-3, but their FBS opponents are a combined 12-5, and their loss to Boise State last week was by just 3 points. After this game SDSU gets a breather, as the worst part of their schedule is over, and it's pretty smooth sailing until their closer against Fresno State. Air Force wins a close one.
Alabama @ Mississippi State- This is yet another lopsided series, as the Crimson Tide has dominated to the tune of 85-18-3, winning the last 15, including 30-6 last year, as each of the last 5 wins, and 7 of the last 8, have been by at least 24 points. The series began in 1896, and after playing every year from 1901-06, and again from 1911-14, 1919-22, and from 1925-28, they've played every year since 1931 (except for 1937-38, 1943, and 1947). It's a little bit of an odd series in that instead of the Bulldogs getting a win here and there, they tend to get clusters of wins: 1903, 1912-14 (tie in 1911 and in 1921), 1935, 1940-41, 1954-55 and '57 (tie in '53), 1980, 1996-98 and 2000, and 2006-07, so there are several 3 wins out of 4 years, 3 straight (with a 4th year tie), or back-to-backs, etc. None of that really matters as the Tide will roll over MSU.
Washington @ Arizona- The Huskies lead the series 25-11-1, winning the last 6 (since 2015), including 49-39 last year, and they have won the last 3 played in Tucson. The series began in 1978, after Arizona joined the Pac 8 with sister school Arizona State, turning the conference into the Pac 10 in 1978. The Wildcats are 3-1/1-0, with their lone loss on the road at Miss State in OT, which was their only game giving up more than 20 points. UW is unbeaten, defeating each team by at least 27 points, scoring at least 41 in each game, and holding all but one opponent to 19 points or less. Huskies win big.
Nevada @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs lead the series 31-22-1, winning the last 2, 4 of the last 6, and 7 of the last 11, including 41-14 last year. The Wolf Pack have had a terrible start to their season, losing all 4 games, including by 27 points to FCS Idaho, and playing only Kansas to closer than 11 points, losing by 7 to the Jayhawks. FS has had a fantastic start, beginning the season 4-0 winning 2 close games at the start by a combined 7 points, then blowing out Arizona State and Kent State by a combined 72 points. The Bulldogs have won 3 of the last 5 played in Fresno. Make it 4 of the last 6. Fresno State wins easily.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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