Power Rankings 9-26-23

Welcome Back!

With almost every team playing this week, there was plenty of movement in the rankings. In addition, I have added some new statistical factors into the rankings. However, the effect of these are mitigated by my preseason numbers, which is fortunate because so many teams have played FCS opponents that the statistics could be skewed somewhat. There is some effect, as you will notice when you see that some teams that lost may have moved up (or stayed the same) while others that won may have moved down (or stayed the same). Those teams usually moved just 1-4 places, and I would consider these adjustments, or corrections, for perhaps being misplaced in the preseason rankings.

At any rate, I am less concerned with being correct right now than I am with being correct at the end of the season. As most of you realize, you could probably take the teams listed from about #13 to #65 or so, place them in a hat and draw the names out randomly and probably be just as accurate, as there just isn't that much separating those teams. The same is probably true for the teams ranked from #66-110 or so.

This week, there wasn't as much movement near the top as there was last week, which really surprised me. The top 5 remained the same, but Penn State jumps Notre Dame into #6, and Oregon jumps Utah into #8. There was no change in the #s 10-16 spots, but quite a bit of shuffling between 17 and 27, and of course there was a lot the further in the rankings you go. Most teams only moved 1-3 places, and the bottom 2 remain the same.

I know several of you may have questions about why some teams may move up or down more than others. There are several things that factor in to whether a team moves up or down, and by how much. First I use a point system, and teams earn points by winning, by who they win against, and by how much, and they lose points by losing, using the same considerations. In addition, each team begins the season with a set of points based on my preseason factors- projection, if you will, on how good I "think" they are, based on a number of statistical measures (eventually these will be dropped). So a team could be a long way from the team above  or below, or it could be very close. In other words, earning 20 points for a win won't help much if a team is 35 points behind the team in front of it, unless that team also loses (and gets at least a -15). In the preseason rankings, the teams are usually clustered; we have a few at the top, then there will be a "break' in the numbers, and there will be another cluster, another break, a cluster, a break, and so forth. So much of the movement will happen within these clusters until I drop my preseason rankings in a few weeks, though teams do move up or down between clusters occasionally. In addition, if a team wins, and every team immediately above it wins, that makes it harder to move up, though it may still do so if it has a win over a better team. Again, this may depend on how close it is to those above it, who it beat, and who those other teams beat. Many times I'll think a team will move up or down based on a big upset only to find that the teams immediately around it also had big wins (or losses), and so the effect is mitigated. I hope this helps explain why there seems to be so little movement, at least early in the season. 

There are a lot of teams that moved 3 spots or less. Here are the teams that moved up at least 4 places:

Fresno State +6 to #29

Troy +4 to #40

Maryland +4 to #46

Missouri +6 to #49

James Madison +4 to #55

Houston +5 to #65

Georgia Southern +4 to #77

East Carolina +8 to #81

Miami, Oh +6 to #84

Georgia Tech +4 to #87

Northwestern +5 to #102

UNLV +6 to #111

USF +4 to #127

Here are the teams that dropped 4 or more places:

UTSA -5 to #34

Minnesota -4 to #35

BYU -6 to #42

Auburn -5 to #50

Memphis -5 to #53

SMU -6 to #57

Baylor -6 to #59

San Jose State -4 to #83

Eastern Michigan -5 to #88

Temple -4 to #119

As stated before, this year I am listing where the teams were ranked last week as well.

Here are the new rankings:

Rank	Team	Previous
1	Georgia	1
2	Ohio State	2
3	Alabama	3
4	Michigan	4
5	Clemson	5
6	Penn State	7
7	Notre Dame	6
8	Oregon	9
9	Utah	8
10	LSU	10
11	Washington	11
12	USC	12
13	Texas	13
14	FSU	14
15	Oklahoma	15
16	Tennessee	16
17	TCU	18
18	Kansas State	19
19	Texas A&M	20
20	Iowa	17
21	Wisconsin	23
22	UCLA	21
23	Air Force	24
24	North Carolina	27
25	UCF	22
26	Ole Miss	26
27	Oregon State	25
28	Cincinnati	28
29	Fresno State	35
30	Kentucky	33
31	NC State	32
32	Pittsburgh	30
33	Boise State	34
34	UTSA	29
35	Minnesota	31
36	Miami, Fl	37
37	Tulane	38
38	Florida	39
39	Duke	40
40	Troy	44
41	Louisville	43
42	BYU	36
43	Oklahoma State	41
44	Wake Forest	42
45	Toledo	47
46	Maryland	50
47	Arkansas	46
48	Marshall	49
49	Missouri	55
50	Auburn	45
51	Texas Tech	52
52	Appalachian State	54
53	Memphis	48
54	Washington State	56
55	James Madison	59
56	South Carolina	58
57	SMU	51
58	Mississippi State	57
59	Baylor	53
60	Liberty	62
61	Army	60
62	Syracuse	63
63	South Alabama	61
64	Illinois	66
65	Houston	70
66	San Diego State	65
67	Iowa State	68
68	WKU	64
69	Louisiana	67
70	West Virginia	71
71	Coastal Carolina	69
72	Ohio	72
73	Kansas	74
74	Michigan State	73
75	Purdue	75
76	Wyoming	77
77	Georgia Southern	81
78	California	76
79	UAB	78
80	Nebraska	82
81	East Carolina	89
82	Arizona	80
83	San Jose State	79
84	Miami, OH	90
85	Georgia State	85
86	FAU	84
87	Georgia Tech	91
88	Eastern Michigan	83
89	Middle Tenn	86
90	Utah State	87
91	Rutgers	88
92	Virginia Tech	93
93	Boston College	92
94	Indiana	94
95	Buffalo	96
96	Arizona State	95
97	Southern Miss	97
98	Central Michigan	100
99	North Texas	98
100	Virginia	102
101	Vanderbilt	99
102	Northwestern	107
103	New Mexico State	103
104	Ball State	101
105	Navy	105
106	Tulsa	109
107	Northern Illinois	104
108	Western Michigan	106
109	UTEP	108
110	La Tech	111
111	UNLV	117
112	Rice	110
113	Stanford	114
114	Texas State	116
115	Colorado	112
116	UConn	113
117	Colorado State	118
118	ODU	121
119	Temple	115
120	Arkansas State	122
121	Jacksonville State	124
122	Bowling Green	119
123	Kent State	120
124	ULM	123
125	Hawai'i	125
126	Nevada	126
127	USF	131
128	New Mexico	128
129	Akron	129
130	FIU	127
131	Charlotte	130
132	Sam Houston	132
133	UMass	133

I will update these rankings each week throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!