Odds and Ends 10-25-23

Welcome Back!

Before I get to my early picks, I want to give the top 10 teams in my statistical analysis that I use for my Power Rankings. These are the teams that are doing the best so far this season offensively and defensively combined, based on a formula I devised.

1. Georgia

2. Oregon

3. Michigan

4. Penn State

5. Miami, FL

6. SMU

7. Ohio State

8. South Alabama

9. Air Force

10. Troy

Here are the teams doing the worst statistically:

133. Nevada

132. Temple

131. ULM

130. Southern Miss

129. Arkansas State

128. San Diego State

T127. Kent State

T127. FIU

125. Stanford

124. UMass

Here are my picks for tonight's games:

Wednesday, October 25

Jacksonville State @ FIU- In their only previous meeting, the Gamecocks defeated the Panthers 19-10 in 2020. JSU is 6-2/4-1, and 2-1 on the road, with wins over UTEP and WKU and at SHS (by 7 in OT), and a loss to Liberty (by 18). FIU is 4-4/1-4, and 2-2 at home, with a win over SHS (by 6), and losses to Liberty (by 32), and at La Tech and NMSU. The Gamecocks are ineligible for the CUSA championship, but they could still finish as high as 2nd. JSU wins.

UTEP @ Sam Houston- The Miners lead the series 2-0, winning in 1990 and 2003, but this will be the 1st time they play in Huntsville. The Bearkats are 0-7/0-4, and 0-3 at home, with losses to JSU (by 7 in OT) and FIU (by 6), and at Liberty and NMSU (by 14). UTEP is 2-6/1-3, and 1-3 on the road, with a win at FIU (by 13), and losses to La Tech and NMSU (by 21) and at JSU (by 3). The Miners have been a huge disappointment so far this year, as they were expected to challenge for the conference title, or at least a bowl berth, but the former is unlikely, and the latter is slipping away. UTEP wins a close one.

Inter-conference results 

Since there are so few non-conference games each week, I will revisit this at the end of the season.

Intra-conference results

Here are how the divisions stack up against each other so far:

The SEC East leads the SEC West 3-2.

The Big Ten East leads the Big Ten West 7-3.

The Sun Belt East leads the Sun Belt West 8-1.

The Mac West leads the MAC East 5-3.

Which Conference is Best?

This category takes each team's overall record in all games into consideration. Here is how they stack up after Week 8. As we continue into conference play, just about every conference will be .500 each week, unless some teams play OOC games, and some will, because the Independents have to play somebody. Also, with some teams being idle each week, that could affect the records.

1) Pac 12 54-31 .635

2) SEC 65-38 .631

3) Big Ten 63-39 .617

4) ACC 59-39 .602

5) Big 12 59-40 .595

6) SBC 57-41 .582

7) MWC 45-43 .511

8) CUSA 33-36 .478

9) AAC 47-54 .465

10) MAC 44-52 .458

11) Independents 10-20 .333

The Pac 12 is still in the lead, and the Sun Belt is still the best among the G5 leagues. The SEC and Mountain West at 5-4 had the best weeks. The Independents were 0-2.

Which Division is Best?

To further break things out, I break the conferences down into divisions. Unfortunately, there are fewer conferences using divisions this year, and even fewer will be using them next year.

1) Big Ten East 36-15 .705

2) SBC East 33-16 .673

3) SEC East 33-18 .647

4) Pac 12 54-31 .635

6) ACC 59-39 .602

5) SEC West 32-20 .615

7) Big 12 59-40 .595

8) Big 10 West 27-24 .529

10) SBC West 24-25 .490

9) MWC 45-43 .511

11) MAC West 23-25 .479

12) CUSA 33-36 .478

13) AAC 47-54 .465

14) MAC East 21-27 .438

15) Ind 10-20 .333

The Big Ten East continues to lead, but the SBC West had the best week, at 5-2. Other divisions that did well were the  SEC West at 4-2 and the Mountain West at 5-4. The Sun Belt East is the best division among the G5 conferences, moving up to #2 all alone. The SBC West was 1-4, and the SEC East was 1-2, the worst for the week (Independents at 0-2 were already mentioned above).

Undefeated/Winless teams

These are the teams that are still undefeated, listed alphabetically:

Air Force

FSU

Georgia

James Madison

Liberty

Michigan

Ohio State 

Oklahoma

Washington

The following teams are winless, also listed alphabetically:

Sam Houston 

There are 9 teams without a loss so far (down from 14 last week), and only 1 winless teams (down from 2 last week). This is how they break down by conference (1st number listed is number of undefeated teams, 2nd is number of winless teams):

1) Big Ten 2-0

2) ACC 1-0

T3) Pac 12 1-0

T3) SEC 1-0

T3) Big 12 1-0

T3) Sun Belt 1-0

T7) Mountain West 1-0

T7) CUSA 1-1

T9) AAC 0-0

T9) MAC 0-0

T9) Independents 0-0

In addition, there are 5 teams that have a win, but no wins against FBS competition, down from 8 last week, as some teams dropped off. Those teams are (again listed alphabetically):

Akron

Arizona State

East Carolina

Kent State

Southern Miss

Here is how they break down by conference:

MAC- 2

AAC- 1

Sun Belt- 1

Pac 12- 1

ACC-0

Mountain West- 0

CUSA- 0

Big 12-0

SEC-0

Big Ten-0

Independents- 0

How Many Wins/Losses?

Here is how the number of wins and losses breaks down:

8 wins- 1 team 0.8%

7 wins- 11 teams 8.3% (up from 2)

6 wins- 19 teams 14.3% (up rom 18)

5 wins- 20 teams 15.0% (down from 21)

4 wins- 28 teams 21.1% (up from 25)

3 wins- 25 teams 18.8% (down from 34)

2 wins- 20 teams 15.0% (down from 21)

1 win- 8 teams 6.0% (down from 10)

0 wins- 1 teams 1.5% (down from 2)

0 losses- 9 teams 6.8% (down from 11)

1 loss- 15 teams 11.3% (down from 18)

2 losses- 26 teams 19.5% (down from 27)

3 losses- 22 teams 16.5% (down from 32)

4 losses- 25 teams 18.8% (up from 21)

5 losses- 18 teams 13.5% (up from 17)

6 losses- 14 teams 10.5% (up from 6)

7 losses- 4 teams 3.0% (up from 1)

Note: Numbers may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.

Bowl Eligible/Eliminated 

The following teams have qualified for a bowl by achieving 6 wins. So far, 28 teams have qualified (10 more than last week), so 54 more are needed (see notes below).

Air Force

Alabama

FSU

Georgia

Georgia State

Iowa

Jacksonville State (see note 3 below)

James Madison (see note 3 below)

Louisville

LSU

Miami, Oh

Michigan

Missouri

North Carolina

Notre Dame

Ohio

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Ole Miss

Oregon

Oregon State

Penn State

Rutgers

Texas

Toledo

Tulane

UNLV

USC

Utah

Washington

The following teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration (see notes below):

Akron

Arizona State (see note 2 below)

Kent State

UMass

NOTE 1: Army will need 7 wins as they play 2 FCS teams.

NOTE 2: Arizona State is observing a self imposed bowl ban for this year.

NOTE 3: James Madison, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston are in their 2nd season as transitional teams, and therefore are only eligible if there are not enough 6-win teams available.

NOTE 4: 5-7 teams may only be chosen if there are not enough 6-win teams available, and the supply of eligible transitional teams have been exhausted. These are chosen based on each eligible school's APR (Academic Progress Rate) standing. 

NOTE 5: There are 41 bowls, so 82 teams (out of 133) will be needed.

Updates on my playoff picks 

Michigan, Ohio State, and Alabama all won. Clemson lost to Miami, and with 3 losses on the season, they are eliminated from the CFP. 

Of the other teams I mentioned as possibilities- 

Georgia- Still possible, but I still think they lose a game and don't even make the SECCG. 

USC- Suffered another loss this week, and with their schedule, may not make the Pac 12 CG.

Oregon- Loss to Washington hurts, but they're still in it.

Washington- Win over Oregon puts them in prime position.

Kansas State- Nope.

Texas- Will need to win the rest of their games, including the Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas Tech- Nope.

FSU- A favorite to replace Clemson.

NC State- Nope.

North Carolina- Loss to Virginia severely hurts chances. Now they must win out and win the ACC CG.

LSU- Nope. Even if they win the SEC, they won't be going to the CFP.

Penn State- Loss to Ohio State doesn't eliminate them, but makes the path much more narrow.

Wisconsin- Nope.

Other teams that have emerged:

Oklahoma- With their win over Texas, they have a strong chance to make it, especially if they go undefeated. A loss in the Big 12 CG could doom, them, however. but not necessarily.

Utah or Oregon State, - If either of these should go undefeated the rest of the way and win the PAC 12 Championship Game, they would be a strong candidate for the CFP. 

I don't see any G5 teams making the CFP, but if chaos should reign supreme, then the only possible candidates (at this point) would be Tulane, Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Georgia State, Toledo, or Liberty. All except Air Force and Liberty have 1 loss, so it would be highly unlikely. 

Games I'm Excited About

There are some exciting matchups this week in what looks like Elimination Saturday. This is one of those weeks where we begin to separate the pretenders from the contenders in the conference (or division) championship races.

Georgia State @ Georgia Southern- Can the Panthers move to 4-1 in Statesboro and seize control of the Sun Belt East? Will the Eagles be able to pull the mild upset and claim their own chances at the title?

Clemson @ NC State- Can the Tigers bounce back from their 3rd loss and keep their season from spiraling out of control? Are the Wolfpack good enough to give Clemson a tough fight and grab the opportunity for the upset?

Georgia vs Florida (Jacksonville)- Can the Gators take over at least a share of 1st place in the SEC East? Will the Bulldogs continue to their march to a 3rd straight division championship?

Oregon @ Utah- Can the Utes eliminate yet another team from contention in the Pac 12, and work themselves closer to a 3rd straight Pac 12 Championship, and play in the title game for the 5th time in the last 6 years? Will the Ducks stay in line for a rematch with Washington in the Pac 12 title game?

Duke @ Louisville- Will the Blue Devils have the services of QB Riley Leonard, and can they knock off the Cardinals, with or without him? Can Louisville bounce back from their 1st loss of the season and start another string of wins?

Virginia @ Miami, Fl- Will the Cavaliers be able to pull a 2nd stunner in a row on the road? Can the Hurricanes put their 2 midseason losses further in the rearview mirror and get back in the ACC race?

Louisiana @ South Alabama- Will the Ragin' Cajuns be able to bounce back from their 2nd loss in the SBC and get back into the West Division chase? Or will the Jaguars eliminate UL and set up a possible winner-take-all match with Troy in November?

Wyoming @ Boise State- Will the week off help the Broncos get their season back on track and get a win to possibly move into title contention? Can the Cowboys win a tough game on the road and eliminate BS from the MWC race?

Tennessee @ Kentucky- Can the Volunteers win an SEC game on the road? Did the Wildcats use their off week to shake off 2 consecutive losses and find an offense?

Air Force @ Colorado State- Can the Falcons continue their unbeaten season? Will the Rams be able to pull the upset at home and perhaps reenter the discussion in the Mountain West?

Troy @ Texas State- Can the Bobcats extend their magical season? Will the Trojans be able to end TSU's title hopes and set themselves up to repeat as division and conference champions?

Ohio State @ Wisconsin- Will the Buckeyes have a letdown after last week's big game against Penn State? Can the Badgers pull the upset and avoid falling back into the pack in the Big Ten West (every team has at least 1 conference loss, except UW who has 1)?

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech- How will the Tar Heels respond to their 1st loss of the season? Can the Yellow Jackets continue their pattern of never winning or losing 2 games in a row?

ODU @ James Madison- Can the Monarchs continue their resurgent season and inch closer to their 3rd ever bowl berth with a huge upset? Will the Dukes just continue to win and claim an unofficial SBC East Championship at the end of the season?

UNLV @ Fresno State- Can the Rebels stay in line for an MWC Championship Game spot and stay unbeaten in the conference? Will the Bulldogs win and pull UNLV back into the pack, and put themselves in the driver's seat for a repeat title?

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Paul's Picks!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!