Paul's Picks 2023 Week 9
Welcome Back!
Last week I bounced back to go 40-14, or 74.1% correct. Overall, I am 419-121, or 77.6%, a drop of 0.4% from last week. I typically finish around 73%, but my goal is always to finish at or above 75%.
This week, there are a lot of conference matchups, and no games against FCS opponents- 54 games overall. With conference play in full swing, the games are much harder to predict, so my accuracy is likely to drop. Can I stay above 75%?.
So far, I am 3-1 on my early picks, which is a 1/2-game better than I've been the last 2 weeks.
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 26
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech- The Orange lead the series 11-8, winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5 (since 2001), and they've won 2 of the last 3 played in Blacksburg. While they 1st played in 1964, most of their games were between 1985 and 2003, 1st when they were both Independents, and then as members of the Big East from 1991-2003. The Hokies are 3-4/2-1, and 3-1 at home, with wins over Pitt and Wake Forest, and a loss at FSU (by 22). Syracuse is 4-3/0-3, on a current 3-game losing streak, and is 1-2 on the road, with losses to Clemson, and at UNC and FSU (by 38). Surprisingly, VT is still in the running to make the ACC Championship Game, and they'll stay in it with a win over the Orange.
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern- This series has been played every year since 2014, with the Panthers leading 6-3, having won the last 3, and they are 3-1 in Statesboro. The Eagles are 5-2/2-1, and 4-0 at home, with wins over CCU (by 10) and ULM, and a loss at JMU. GSU is 6-1/3-1, and 3-0 on the road, with wins over Marshall and at CCU (by 13) and Louisiana, and a loss to Troy at home. The loser of this game will be hard pressed to win the division, but the winner will be in prime position, as these are 2 of the 3 teams (ODU is the other) with only 1 loss in the conference. Panthers win.
Friday, October 27
FAU @ Charlotte- The Owls lead the series 6-2, winning the last 4, 3 of those by at least 18 points, including 43-13 last year, and they have never lost in Charlotte. The 49ers are 2-5/1-2, and 1-2 at home, with a win at ECU, and losses to Navy and at SMU. FAU is 3-4/2-1, and 1-2 on the road (losses at Clemson and Illinois), with wins over Tulsa and at USF, and a loss to UTSA. Owls win.
Saturday, October 28
FSU @ Wake Forest- The Seminoles lead the series 30-9-1, but the Demon Deacons have won the last 3, including 31-21 last year. They 1st played in 1956, a 14-14 tie in Tallahassee, as the 1st 9 meetings, and 11 of the 1st 12, were played there between 1956 and 1993. FSU is 7-0/5-0, and 2-0 on the road (plus a win over LSU in Orlando), with wins over Va Tech (by 22), Syracuse, and Duke, and at BC and Clemson (by 7 in OT). The Demon Deacons are 4-3/1-3, and 3-1 at home, with a win over Pitt, and losses to Ga Tech and at Clemson (by 7) and Va Tech (by 17). There's very little chance FSU takes WF lightly, as no one currently on the team has participated in a win over the Deacons (last win was in 2018). Noles win.
Oklahoma @ Kansas- This is one of the more lopsided series in CFB, as the Sooners lead 80-27-6, winning the last 18 (since 2000), including 52-42 last year, but the last 2 meetings were decided by 12 points or less each. The Jayhawks haven't won in Lawrence since 1997, but 15 of their 27 wins have taken place there. KU dominated the beginning of the series, winning the 1st 8 matchups that took place between 1903-1910, so they've only won 19 more times since 1911. averaging out to less than 2 wins per decade since. In case you're interested, the ties happened in 1914 (16-16), 1919 (0-0), 1925 (0-0), 1934 (7-7), 1947 (13-13), and 1960 (13-13) with 4 of those taking place in Lawrence. OU is 7-0/4-0, and 2-0 on the road (plus the win over Texas in Dallas), with wins over Iowa State, Texas (by 4), and UCF (by 2), and at Cincinnati. The Jayhawks are 5-2/2-2, and 4-0 at home, with wins over BYU and UCF (by 29), and losses at Texas (by 26) and Oklahoma State. The Sooners will win, but KU may take this game deep into the 2nd half before being overwhelmed.
Indiana @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions lead the series 24-2, winning the last 2, including 45-14 last year. The Hoosiers got their 2 wins in 2020 and 2013. I'm not sure, but the Lions' .923 winning percentage in this series may be the highest for any series that has played at least 25 games; if not it's got to be damn close. IU is 2-5/0-4, and 0-2 on the road (plus a loss to Louisville in Indianapolis, a supposed "neutral" site), with losses to Ohio State (by 20) and Rutgers, and at Maryland and Michigan. PSU is 6-1/3-1, and 4-0 at home, with wins over Iowa and at Illinois and Northwestern, and a loss to Ohio State (by 8). Penn State wins, even if they have a hangover from last week's loss.
UMass @ Army- The Black Knights lead the series 5-0, with all but last year's 44-7 win taking place in West Point. The Minutemen are 1-7, losers of 7 straight, and are 1-3 on the road, but were idle last week. Army is 2-5, and 1-2 at home, and desperately needs this win to halt a 4-game losing streak, including by shutout each of the last 2 weeks. The Black Knights must get to 7 wins if they want to make a bowl, as they play 2 FCS opponents, so they can't afford any more losses. Also, they want to build momentum for their impending move to the AAC next year. Army wins.
UConn @ Boston College- The Eagles lead the series 12-2-1, but the Huskies won 13-3 last year. The 1st 8 meetings took place between 1908 and 1928 (0-0 ties in 1908 and 1910), with the rest all being since 2000. UConn is 1-6, but 1-1 on the road. BC is 4-3, and 2-2 at home. The Eagles get revenge for last year's loss.
Maryland @ Northwestern- The Wildcats lead this long and storied rivalry (the kind that we'll see with the new Big Ten members joining next year) 2-1, but the Terrapins won 31-24 last year. Thy've only played the 3 times since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014, and with the Big Ten swelling to 18 members, I wonder if they'll meet any more frequently. Anyway, the Terps are 5-2/2-2, and 1-1 on the road, with wins over Indiana and at Michigan State, and losses to Illinois and at Ohio State over their last 2 games. NW is 3-4/1-3, and 3-1 at home, with a win over Minnesota, and losses to Penn State, and at Rutgers and Nebraska. UM wins their 2nd in a row in the series, as they are coming out of their off week.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M- The Aggies lead the series 8-1, with all games played since 2014, when they joined the SEC, but the Gamecocks won 30-24 last year. TAMU is 4-3/2-2, and 3-1 at home, with wins over Auburn and vs Arkansas (in Arlington), and losses to Alabama and at Tennessee (by 7). SC is 2-5/1-4, and 0-3 on the road (plus a loss to UNC in Charlotte), with a win over Miss State, and losses to Florida, and at Georgia, Tennessee (by 21), and Missouri. The Gamecocks still have a decent chance to qualify for a bowl, but this game won't help. Aggies win.
Houston @ Kansas State- This will be a 1st time meeting between these teams, as they've never before met on the gridiron, not even in a bowl. The Wildcats are 5-2/3-1, and 4-0 at home, with wins over UCF and TCU (by 38) and at Texas Tech (by 17), and a loss at Oklahoma State. The Cougars are 3-4/1-3, and 0-2 on the road, with a win over WVU, and losses to TCU (by 23) and Texas , and at Texas Tech (by 21). I don't expect this to be close. KSU wins easily.
West Virginia @ UCF- The Mountaineers lead the series 2-0, having won games in 2003 and 2004. The Knights are 3-4/0-4, and 2-1 at home, with losses to Baylor, and at Kansas State, Kansas, and Oklahoma. WVU is 4-3/2-2, and 1-2 on the road, with wins over Teas Tech and at TCU, and losses in their last 2 games to Oklahoma State and at Houston. UCF will eventually win a Big 12 game, but it won't be this week. WVU wins, extending UCF's losing streak to 5 games.
Tulsa @ SMU- The Mustangs lead the series 16-13, winning 45-34 last year, but the Golden Hurricane have won 6 of the last 9. The series began in 1935, but they only played once more, in 1943, before meeting again in 1991, and then every year since 1996 (except for 2013, when SMU joined the AAC one year before Tulsa did), as they have shared 3 conferences together: the WAC from 1996-2004, CUSA from 2005-2012, and the AAC since 2014. The Mustangs are 5-2/3-0, and 3-0 at home, with wins over Charlotte and at ECU and Temple (by 55), as they sport a 3-game winning streak. The Golden Hurricane is 3-4/1-2, and 1-2 on the road (1 loss was at Oklahoma), with a win over Temple (22) and losses to Rice and at FAU. SMU wins, but it will probably be close, as each of the last 9 wins in the series has been by 11 points or less.
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan- The Broncos lead the series 34-22-2, but the Eagles have won each of the last 4, including 45-23 last year. The teams played 10 times between 1906 and 1930, with EMU holding a 5-4-1 edge (7-7 tie in 1929). They picked the series back up in 1974, 2 years before the Eagles joined the MAC. They've played every year since, except for 1977, with the tie occurring in 1982 (3-3).The Broncos still own the longest winning streak in the series, winning 7 in a row from 1997-2003. W Mich is 2-6/1-3, and 0-5 on the road (3 losses to P5 teams), with a win over Ball State by 18), and losses to Miami, and at Toledo and Ohio. E Mich is 4-4/2-2, and 4-0 at home, with wins over Ball State (by 14) and Kent State, and losses at CMU and NIU. EMU wins to stay perfect at home.
Clemson @ NC State- The Tigers lead the series 60-29-1, winning 16 of the last 18, including 30-20 last year, but the Wolfpack won in 2021, the last time they played in Raleigh. Clemson is 4-3/2-3, and is 1-2 on the road, with wins over Wake Forest and at Syracuse, and losses to FSU, and at Duke (by 21) and Miami. NC State is 4-3/1-2, and 2-2 at home, with a win at Virginia, and losses to Louisville and at Duke (by 21). However, the Wolfpack were off last week while the Tigers were getting beaten by Miami. The Wolfpack win in a mild upset.
Memphis @ North Texas- The Tigers lead the series 17-4, including a 44-34 win last year, but all but the last 2 of their matchups were between 1952 and 1980, with a 27-17 Memphis win in the 2003 New Orleans Bowl being the other meeting (besides last year). They actually shared a conference before thsi year (when UNT joined the AAC) when they were both in the MVC between 1968-72, but Memphis was an Independent the other times they met (except for the bowl game, when they were in CUSA and UNT was in the Sun Belt. The Tigers are 5-2/2-1, and 2-0 on the road (plus a loss to Missouri in "neutral" St. Louis), with wins over Navy (by 4) and at UAB, and a loss to Tulane (by 10) at home. The Mean Green is 3-4/1-2, and 2-1 at home (loss to Cal), with a win over Temple, and losses at Navy (by 3) and Tulane (by 7). Despite their record, UNT has played pretty well, but Memphis wins this.
Georgia vs Florida (Jacksonville)- The Bulldogs lead the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party with 54 wins, 44 losses, and 2 ties (0-0 in 1930 in Savannah, and 13-13 in 1969). The game has been played in Jacksonville every year since 1933 (the year the SEC was formed), except for 2 years- 1994 and 1995, when the stadium in Jacksonville was being renovated. Before 1933, the game was played twice in Gainesville (1930 and 1931), twice in Savannah (1928 and 1930), 3 times in Athens (1916, 1920, and 1926, and once in Tampa (1919). The other 3 meetings were in Jacksonville, including the very 1st between these 2 in 1915, and in 1927 and 1929. The Dawgs have won the last 2, and 5 of the last 6, including 42-20 last year, but only once in the last 9 matchups has the game been decided by less than 14 points (a 24-17 UGA win in 2019). They've played every year since 1926, except for 1943 (due to WWII). The Gators are the designated home team, and they are 5-2/3-1, with wins over Tennessee and Vandy (by 24), and at SC (by 2), with a loss at Kentucky (by 19). UGA is 7-0/4-0, with wins over SC (by 10) and Kentucky (by 38), and at Auburn and Vandy (by 17). As is tradition, both were idle last week. With UF in the thick of the SEC East race (and already with a win over Tenn), expect the Gators to play for the division lead, but the Dawgs will be a little too much for them. Georgia wins.
BYU @ Texas- The Cougars lead the series 4-1, winning both games in 1987 and '88, and the 2 most recent meetings in 2013 and 2014, with UT winning in 2011 (by 1 point, 17-16). BYU is 5-2/2-2, and 1-2 on the road, with wins over Cincinnati and Texas Tech, and losses at Kansas (by 11) and TCU. The Longhorns are 6-1/3-1, and 3-0 at home, with wins over Kansas (by 26), and at Baylor and Houston, and a loss to Oklahoma in Dallas. UT wins.
Oregon @ Utah- The Ducks lead the series 24-12, including 20-17 last year, but the Utes have won 2 of the last 3. The 2 teams have split wins in the PAC 12 Championship Game, with UO winning in 2019 and UU winning in 2021. They 1st played in 1933, and played twice more in the 30s, followed by 3 times in the 50s, 8 times in the 60s, 5 times in the 70s, 4 times in the 90s, 3 times in the Aughts, and every year since Utah joined the conference in 2013 (except for the pandemic 2020 year), but this may be their last game for a while as each goes their separate ways (good name for a song!) next year. The Ducks are 6-1/3-1, and 2-1 on the road, with wins over Colorado and Washington State, and at Stanford, and a loss at Washington. The Utes are also 6-1/3-1, and 4-0 at home, with wins over UCLA and Cal, and at USC, and a loss at Oregon State. This is one of the best games of the day! Oregon wins a close one, as I trust Oregon's offense against the Utah defense more than the Utah offense against the UO defense.
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish lead the series 49-21-1, winning the last 3, and 6 of the last 7 (since 2010), including 45-3 the last time they met, in 2020. The Panthers are only 2-5, and 0-3 on the road. The Irish are 6-2, and 3-1 at home. Against their one common opponent, Pitt defeated Louisville 38-21 at home, while ND lost to the Cardinals 33-20 in Louisville. ND wins easily.
Duke @ Louisville- The Cardinals lead the series 3-0, winning in 2002, 2016, and 2021, twice in Durham. The Blue Devils are 5-2/2-1, and 1-1 on the road, with wins over Clemson and NC State (by 21), and a loss at FSU. UL is 6-1/3-1, and 3-0 at home, with wins over BC, at NC State (by 13), and vs Ga Tech in Atlanta, and a loss at Pitt. This will be close, but the Cardinals win at home, especially coming out of their off week.
Mississippi State @ Auburn- The Tigers lead the series 65-29-2, but the Bulldogs have won the last 2, including 39-33 in OT last year. The teams have played every year since 1955, and 1st played in 1905 in Columbus, MS, and met often from 1910-1953 (25 times), and they actually played in "neutral" Birmingham each game between 1911 and 1948, and alternated between Auburn and Birmingham from 1956-1962, and they played 6 times in Jackson, MS between 1963 and 1976. MSU is 4-3/1-3, and 1-1 on the road, with a win last week at Arkansas, and losses to LSU (by 27) and Alabama, and at SC. The Plainsmen are 3-4/0-4, and are 2-2 at home, with losses to Georgia and Ole Miss, and at Texas A&M and LSU (by 30). The War Eagles have lost 4 straight; MSU wins a close one.
Michigan State @ Minnesota- The Spartans lead the series 30-18, winning 5 of the last 6 (since 2010), but the Golden Gophers won 34-7 last year. MSU is 2-5/0-4, and 0-2 on the road, with losses to Maryland and Michigan (by 49), and at Iowa (by 10) and Rutgers, as they have lost their last 5 games. UM is 4-3/2-2, and 3-1 at home, with wins over Nebraska and at Iowa (by 2), and losses to Michigan (by 42) and at Northwestern. Neither of these teams are any good, o go with the home team. Minny wins.
Purdue @ Nebraska- The Boilermakers lead the series 6-5, winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, including 43-37 last year, but it's only 5-5 since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten in 2013, as PU won 28-0 in 1958. But Purdue is 2-2 in Lincoln, winning each of the last 2. The Boilermakers are 2-5/1-3. and 1-1 on the road, with a win over Illinois (by 25), and losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State, and at Iowa. The Huskers are 4-3/2-2, and 3-1 at home, with wins over Northwestern and at Illinois (by 13), and losses to Michigan and at Minnesota. NU has won their last 2, and PU has lost their last 2, but Purdue was idle last week. I'm tempted to pick the upset, but Nebraska wins at home.
Virginia @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes lead the series 12-8, winning 3 of the last 4, and 6 of the last 8, including 14-12 last year, but the Cavaliers won the last time they played in Miami, in 2021. UVA is 2-5/1-2, and 1-2 on the road (plus a loss to Tennessee in Nashville), with a win at UNC (by 4), and losses to NC State and at BC, but they've won their last 2 games after an 0-5 start. The Canes are 5-2/1-2, and 4-1 at home, with a win over Clemson in 2 OTs, and losses to Ga Tech and at UNC (by 10). Again, I'm tempted to go with the upset, and the Wahoos to extend their winning streak to 3 games, but I just can't do it. Miami wins, but it could be close, as the last 2 meetings were decide by 2 points each, and each of the last 5 by 8 points or less.
Iowa State @ Baylor- The Bears lead the series 12-9, winning the last 2, including 31-24 last year, but the Cyclones have split the last 6. ISU is 4-3/3-1, and 1-2 on the road, with wins over Oklahoma State, TCU, and at Cincinnati (by 20), and a loss at Oklahoma. Baylor is 3-4/2-2, and 1-4 at home, with wins at UCF and Cincinnati (by 3), and losses to Texas and Texas Tech. Cyclones win.
East Carolina @ UTSA- This is the 1st meeting between these teams. The Pirates are 1-6/0-3, and 0-3 on the road, with losses to SMU, Charlotte, and at Rice, and their only win on the season is over an FCS squad. The Roadrunners are 4-3/3-0, and 2-1 at home, with wins over UAB, and at Temple and FAU. UTSA wins big.
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State- The Golden Eagles lead the series 2-0, winning in 1937 and 2014. USM is 1-6/0-4, and is 0-3 on the road, with losses to Texas State and ODU (by 4), and at Ark State and South Alabama. The Mountaineers are 3-4/1-2, and 2-1 at home, with a win at ULM, and losses to CCU and at ODU (by 7). The Eagles have been truly awful this season, while ASU has just been disappointing. App State wins to break a 2-game losing streak.
Miami, Oh @ Ohio- The Redhawks lead the series 54-42-2, but the Bobcats have won the last 2, and 13 of the last 16, including 37-21 last year. Miami is 6-2/3-1, and is 4-1 on the road, with wins over Bowling Green (by 27), and at Kent State (by 20) and WMU (by 13), and a loss to Toledo last week. Ohio is also 6-2/3-0, and is 4-0 at home (win over Iowa State), with wins over Kent State (by 25) and WMU (by 3), and at Bowling Green (by 31), and a loss at NIU. The winner of this game will take control of the division and have the tiebreaker edge over the loser, but each still has to play Buffalo, who is also 3-1 in the MAC (though 3-5 overall). The Redhawks have only won in Athens once (in 2019) since 2005. Ohio wins.
USC @ California- The Trojans lead the series 72-31-5, winning 16 of the last 17, including 41-35 last year, but the Golden Bears have split the past 4. The series began in 1915 (they actually played twice that year, a month apart), and have played every year since, except for 1920 and 2020, and they also played twice in 1943, '44 and '45. USC is 6-2/4-1, and 2-1 on the road, with wins over Stanford and Arizona, and at Arizona State and Colorado, and a loss to Utah (by 2). Cal is 3-4/1-3, and is 2-2 at home, with a win over Arizona State (by 3), and losses to Oregon State, and at Washington and Utah (by 20). The Trojans lost the last game played in Berkeley, but won the 7 previous times there. USC wins, but expect the Bears to keep it close.
Tulane @ Rice- The Owls lead the series 20-15-1, winning the last 3, and 5 of the last 6, but they haven't played since 2013, when the Green Wave left CUSA for the AAC. Tulane is 6-1/3-0, and 2-0 on the road, with wins over UAB, North Texas, and at Memphis. Rice is 4-3/2-1, and is 3-1 at home, with wins over ECU and at Tulsa, and a loss at USF. This will be closer than expected, but the Green Wave will pull it out in the 4th quarter.
Arkansas State @ ULM- The Red Wolves lead the series 29-14, winning the last 13, including 45-28 last year, and they've won the last 6 played in Monroe. ASU is 3-4/1-2, and 1-2 on the road (loss at Oklahoma in their opener), with a win over Southern Miss, and losses to CCU and at Troy. The Warhawks are 2-5/0-4, and 2-2 at home, with losses to App State, South Alabama, at Texas State, and at Ga Southern, as they have lost 5 in a row after winning their 1st 2. Neither team is very good, but the Wolves are still in the SBC West hunt. ASU wins.
Louisiana @ South Alabama- The Ragin' Cajuns lead the series 8-3, winning 6 of the last 7, but the Jaguars won 20-17 last year, their 1st win ever in Lafayette. UL is 4-3/1-2, and 1-2 on the road (loss at Minnesota), with a win over Texas State, and losses to Ga State and at ODU. SA is 4-3/2-1, and 2-1 at home, with wins over Southern Miss and at ULM, and a loss at JMU. The Cajuns are playing better this year than last, but they're still just a little behind the Jaguars. USA wins.
Wyoming @ Boise State- The Broncos lead the series 16-1, with all games played since 2002, and they won 20-17 last year, as only once in the last 7 meetings has the game been decided by more than 10 points. Wyoming's lone win came in 2016 in Laramie, as the Cowboys are 0-8 on the blue turf in Boise. Wyoming is 5-2/2-1, and 0-2 on the road (loss at Texas), with wins over New Mexico and Fresno State, and a loss at Air Force. BSU is 3-4/2-1, and 2-1 at home, with wins over SJSU and at SDSU, and a loss at Colorado State. The winner of this game stays in the MWC race, while the loser becomes a long shot. Boise State wins at home.
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers defeated the Thundering Herd 24-13 last year in their only meeting thus far. Marshall is 4-3/1-2, and 1-2 on the road (loss to NC State), with a win over ODU, and losses to JMU and at Ga State (by 17). CCU is 4-3/2-2, and 2-1 at home, with wins at App State and Ark State, and losses to Ga State (by 13) and at Ga Southern. This is another one of those elimination type games, where the loser is out of the SBC East chase, and the winner is barely hanging on by a thread. CCU wins at home.
Washington @ Stanford- The Huskies lead the series 45-44-4, winning the last 2, including 40-22 last year, but the Cardinal has won 12 of the last 18. UW is 7-0/4-0, and 2-0 on the road (win at Mich State), with wins over Cal, Oregon (by 3), Arizona State, and at Arizona (by 7). Stanford is 2-5/1-4, and 0-4 at home, with a win at Colorado in 2 OTs, and losses to Arizona (by 1), Oregon (by 36), UCLA, and at USC. Huskies win big.
Tennessee @ Kentucky- The Volunteers lead the series 83-26-9 (yes, 9 ties!), winning the last 2, and 40 of the last 45 (with a run of 26 straight wins between 1985-2010), including 44-6 last year. These 2 first played in 1893 (a 56-0 UK win), played again in 1899 and 1901, and have played every year since 1906, except for 1917 and 1918 (WWI), and 1943 (WWII). The 9 (nine!) ties occurred in 1907 (0-0), 1916 (0-0), 1921 (0-0), 1928 (0-0), 1929 (6-6), 1931 (6-6), 1948 (0-0), 1952 (14-14- hey... more than 1 TD!), and 1960 (10-10). UT is 5-2/2-2, and 0-2 on the road (plus a win over Virginia in Charlotte), with wins over SC and Texas A&M, and losses at Florida (by 13) and Alabama. The Wildcats are also 5-2/2-2, and 4-1 at home, with wins over Florida (by 19) and at Vandy, and losses to Missouri and at Georgia. This will be an elimination game, as the loser will be out of the SEC East race, while the winner will still harbor slim hopes. Vols win, finally getting an SEC road win, as they just don't lose often to UK, even when the Wildcats are coming out of an off week.
Air Force @ Colorado State- The Falcons lead the series 38-21-1, winning the last 6, and 14 of the last 16 (since 2006), including 24-12 last year. The Rams have lost 3 straight in Fort Collins, but their last 4 wins (since 2005) have all happened there. AFA is 7-0/4-0, and is 3-0 on the road, with wins over Utah State, SDSU, Wyoming, and at SJSU. CSU is 3-4/1-2, and 2-1 at home (loss to Wash State), with a win over Boise State, and losses at Utah State and UNLV. I expect the Rams will play well, as they are better than their record might indicate, but the Falcons will win.
Troy @ Texas State- The Trojans lead the series 12-1, winning the last 11, including 17-14 last year. The last 2 games have each been decided by 3 points, and TSU's lone win came in 1997 in San Marcos, as they've lost the last 4 played at home. Troy is 5-2/2-1, and 2-1 on the road (loss at Kansas State), with wins over Ark State and at Ga State, and a loss to JMU. The Bobcats are also 5-2/2-1, and 3-0 at home, with wins over ULM and at Southern Miss, and a loss at Louisiana. The winner stays in the mix in the SBC West, while the loser will find their chances of winning the division greatly diminished. Troy wins a close one.
Ohio State @ Wisconsin- The Buckeyes lead the series 62-18-5, winning the last 9 (since 2011), and 12 of the last 13 (since 2007), including 52-21 last year. Those last 9 wins include 3 wins in the Big Ten Championship Game- in 2014, 2017, and 2019. They 1st played in 1913 and played yearly through 1920, then picked back up again from 1930-33, then played from 1941-46 (skipping 1943 for WWII), and plyed annually from 1948-1996, then again from 1999-2004, and 13 times between 2007 and this year. OSU is 7-0/4-0, and 3-0 on the road, with wins over Maryland, Penn State, at Indiana, and at Purdue (by 34). The Badgers are 5-2/3-1, and 3-1 at home, with wins over Rutgers and at Purdue (by 21) and Illinois, with a loss to Iowa. UW is the only Big Ten West team with 1 conference loss (all the others have 2+ losses), so a loss here would drop them back into the pack. Buckeyes win their 3rd straight in Madison, and for the 4th time in their last 5 trips there.
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss- The Rebels lead the series 53-40-2, winning the last 4, and 8 of the last 10, including 52-28 last year. They 1st played in 1894, as the Commodores won the 1st 18 contests (through 1938), and 24 of the first 28 (through 1951), with a 21-21 tie in 1952. From 1953-1980, Ole Miss won 23 of the next 25, with a 7-7 tie in 1964, and a Vandy win in 1974. They've played every year since 1970, and the Dores haven't won in Oxford since 2012 (4 losses in a row). VU is 2-6/0-4, and 0-3 on the road, with losses to Kentucky, Missouri, Georgia, and at Florida. The Rebs are 6-1/3-1, and 4-0 at home, with wins over LSU, Arkansas, and at Auburn, and a loss at Alabama. Though Vandy was idle last week, Ole Miss wins easily.
Colorado @ UCLA- The Bruins lead the series 13-5, winning the last 2, including 45-17 last year, and they lead 9-3 since the Buffaloes joined the Pac 12 in 2011. UCLA also won 4 games from 1980-1984, with the Buffs winning in 2002 (the only time they've won in Pasadena) and in 2003. CU is 4-3/1-3, and 2-1 on the road (win at TCU),with a win at Arizona State, and losses to USC, Stanford (by 3 in 2 OTs), and at Oregon. The Buffs were idle last week. The Bruins are 5-2/2-2, and 3-0 at home, with wins over Washington State and at Stanford (by 35), and losses at Utah and Oregon State. UCLA wins, especially if their defense plays like it has against every team except the Beavers.
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 32-21-3, winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, including 21-17 last year. They 1st played in 1915, and played 14 times between then and 1945, played once in 1974, and have played every year since 1980, except for the pandemic year of 2020. The Tar Heels are 6-1/3-1, and 1-0 on the road (plus a win over South Carolina in Charlotte), with wins over Syracuse, Miami, and at Pitt, and a loss last week to Virginia. The Jackets are 3-4/2-2, and 1-2 at home (plus a loss to Louisville in Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium), with wins at Wake Forest and Miami, and losses to Louisville and Boston College. GT has alternated wins and losses this year, and it's time for a win, but UNC will break that pattern and win a close one.
Washington State @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils lead the series 28-17-2, but the Cougars have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, including 28-18 last year. WSU has won 2 of the last 3 played in Tempe, as well. Wazzu is 4-3/1-3, and 1-2 on the road, with a win over Oregon State, and losses to Arizona, and at UCLA and Oregon. ASU is 1-6/0-4, and 1-4 at home, with losses to USC, Colorado, at Cal, and at Washington. The Sun Devils have lost 6 straight since winning their 1st game over an FCS foe. The Cougars have lost their last 3 after starting the season 4-0. ASU has been oh-so-close the last 3 weeks, losing those games by a combined 14 points; I think they finally break through this week. Sun Devils pull the upset.
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys lead the series 2-1, winning in 1958 and 1983, and losing in 1959. Interestingly, the visiting team has won all 3 contests. The Bearcats are 2-6/0-4, and 1-1 on the road, with losses to Oklahoma, Iowa State (by 20), Baylor, and at BYU. OSU is 5-2/3-1, and 3-1 at home (loss to South Alabama), with wins over Kansas State, Kansas, and at WVU, and a loss at Iowa State (by 7). The Cowboys have won their last 3, while UC has lost 5 in a row. OSU wins, but the Bearcats may keep it close once again, as 3 of their 4 Big 12 losses were by 14 points or less.
ODU @ James Madison- The Monarchs lead the series 2-1, winning in 2011 and 2012, but the Dukes won 37-3 last year. ODU is 4-3/3-1, and 1-2 on the road, with wins over Louisiana, App State, and at Southern Miss, and a loss at Marshall (by 6). JMU is 7-0/4-0, and 3-0 at home, with wins over South Alabama, Ga Southern, and at Troy and Marshall (by 11). The Monarchs may keep it close for a while, but the Dukes will stay undefeated.
Oregon State @ Arizona- The Wildcats lead the series 24-16-1, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Beavers won 56-38 the last time they played, in 2019. OSU has lost 2 of the last 3 played in Tucson. The Beavs are 6-1/3-1, and 2-1 on the road, with wins over Utah, UCLA, and at Cal, and a loss at Washington State (by 3). UA is 4-3/2-2, and 2-1 at home, with wins at Stanford and Washington State (by 38), and losses to Washington and at USC. This should be a great game! Beavers win.
New Mexico @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack lead the series 5-3-1, winning the last 2, including 27-20 the last time they played, in 2020. Nevada leads 4-1 since joining the Mountain West Conference in 2012, and also won in 2011. The Lobos have wins in 1941, 2016, and the 2007 New Mexico Bowl, with the 0-0 tie occurring in 1942. UNM has never won in Reno, with the tie being the closest they've come to victory there. The Lobos are 3-4/1-2, and 1-2 on the road (loss to Texas A&M), with a win last week against Hawaii, and losses to SJSU and at Wyoming. UN is 1-6/1-2, and 0-3 at home, with a win last week at SDSU (that broke a 16-game losing streak), and losses to UNLV and at Fresno State. These seem like fairly evenly matched teams. UNM wins a close one.
UNLV at Fresno State- The Bulldogs lead the series 19-6, winning the last 5, including 37-30 last year. The Rebels are 6-1/3-0, and 2-1 on the road (loss to Michigan), with wins over Hawaii, Colorado State, and at Nevada (by 18). FS is 6-1/2-1, and 3-0 at home, with wins over Nevada (by 18) and at Utah State, and a loss at Wyoming. Fresno State wins, due to having a good passing offense going up against a terrible pass defense.
San Jose State @ Hawaii- This series is tied 22-22-1, with the Rainbow Warriors winning 4 of the last 7, but the Spartans winning the last 3, including 27-14 last year. SJSU is 3-5/2-2, and 1-3 on the road (loss to USC in their opener), with wins their last 2 games over Utah State and at New Mexico (by 28), and losses to Air Force and at Boise State. UH is 2-6/0-3, and 2-2 at home, with losses to SDSU and at UNLV and New Mexico (by 21). The Warriors don't often lose at home, but the Spartans are on a roll. SJSU wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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