Odds and Ends 11-22-23
Welcome Back!
Before I get to my early picks, I want to give the top 10 teams in my statistical analysis that I use for my Power Rankings. These are the teams that are doing the best so far this season offensively and defensively combined, based on a formula I devised.
1. Georgia
2. Oregon
3. SMU
4. Michigan
5. Ohio State
6. FSU
7. Notre Dame
8. Louisville
9. Penn State
10. Alabama
Here are the teams doing the worst statistically:
133. Nevada
131. Vanderbilt
132. ULM
129. FIU
130. Kent State
128. UConn
127. San Diego State
126. BYU
125. Temple
124. Stanford
CFP Top 25
The 3rd CFP rankings were revealed last night, and there were almost no surprises. I was interested in seeing how my weekly Power Rankings would compare to the CFP poll, and I would have to say I'm pretty pleased at the accuracy. 21 of my Top 25 made it in the CP Top 25, and my Top 7 were ranked within the Top 8, but slightly shuffled. Some of the more extreme differences are:
1) I have Washington at #8 (up from #10), but they are #4 in the CFP
2) I have Notre Dame at #12 (up from #14); CFP has them at #18
3) I value Oklahoma more highly, at #10, while the CFP has them at #13, and Liberty at #17 while the CFP has them at #25
4) I undervalue Missouri (my #19 vs CFP #9), and Ole Miss (#18 vs #12)
7) My top 25 teams that were left out are #21 James Madison, #14 SMU, and #22 Troy, #24 North Carolina, and #25 Toledo - notice that all but UNC are G5 teams
8) The CFP Top 25 teams from outside my top 25 are Tennessee (my #26 vs CFP #21), Tulane (my #30 vs CFP #23), Oklahoma State (my #38 vs CFP #20), NC State (my #31 vs CFP #22), and Iowa (my #35 vs CFP #17).
Here's the same info in a handy-dandy chart form:
Inter-conference results
Since there are so few non-conference games each week, I will revisit this at the end of the season.
Intra-conference results
Here are how the divisions stack up against each other so far:
The SEC West leads the SEC East 8-5, the same as last week.
The Big Ten East leads the Big Ten West 13-7, as the East was 1-0 vs the West this week.
The Sun Belt East leads the Sun Belt West 10-3, as the East was 0-1 against the West this week.
The Mac West leads the MAC East 8-5, as the West was 2-1 vs the East this week.
Which Conference is Best?
This category takes each team's overall record in all games into consideration. Here is how they stack up after Week 12. As we continue into conference play, just about every conference will be .500 each week, unless some teams play OOC games, and some will, because the Independents have to play somebody. Also, with some teams being idle each week, that could affect the records.
1) SEC 94-60 .610
2) Pac 12 78-55 .586
3) Big Ten 89-65 .577
4) ACC 88-66 .571
5) Big 12 86-68 .558
6) SBC 83-71 .539
7) MWC 67-66 .503
8) CUSA 50-51 .495
9) AAC 73-80 .477
10) MAC 62-70 .469
11) Independents 18-26 .409
There was no change from last week. The SEC was 9-4 (lots of OOC games), the Independents were 3-1, and CUSA was 5-4. All the other conferences were .500, except for the Sun Belt, which was 5-9).
Which Division is Best?
To further break things out, I break the conferences down into divisions. Unfortunately, there are fewer conferences using divisions this year, and even fewer will be using them next year. One interesting note is that the SEC West is the only division where no team has a losing record (2 teams are 4-4).
1) Big Ten East 50-27 .649
2) SEC West 49-28 .636
3) SBC East 46-31 .597
4) Pac 12 78-55 .586
5) SEC East 45-32 .584
6) ACC 88-66 .571
7) Big 12 86-68 .558
8) Big 10 West 39-38 .506
9) MWC 67-66 .503
10) MAC West 33-33 .500
11) CUSA 50-51 .495
12) SBC West 37-40 .481
13) AAC 73-80 .477
14) MAC East 29-37 .439
15) Independents 18-26 .409
The SEC West slides back into #2 ahead of the SBC East, and the MAC West and SBC West switch places. The SEC West was 6-1 for the week, followed by MAC West (4-2), Big Ten East 4-3, and the Independents and CUSA (mentioned above). The SBC East (2-5), MAC East (2-4), Big Ten West and SBC West (both 3-4) did the worst for the week.
Undefeated/Winless teams
These are the teams that are still undefeated, listed alphabetically:
FSU
Georgia
Liberty
Michigan
Ohio State
Washington
There are now NO winless teams!
There are 6 teams without a loss (same as last week), and zero winless teams (same as last week). This is how they break down by conference (1st number listed is number of undefeated teams, 2nd is number of winless teams):
Big Ten 2-0
ACC 1-0
Pac 12 1-0
SEC 1-0
CUSA 1-0
Sun Belt 0-0
Mountain West 0-0
Big 12 0-0
AAC 0-0
MAC 0-0
Independents 0-0
In addition, there is 1 team that has a win, but no wins against FBS competition:
Kent State
Here is how they break down by conference:
MAC- 1
AAC- 0
CUSA- 0
Sun Belt- 0
Pac 12- 0
ACC-0
Mountain West- 0
Big 12-0
SEC-0
Big Ten-0
Independents- 0
How Many Wins/Losses?
Here is how the number of wins and losses breaks down:
11 wins- 6 teams 4.5% (up from 0)
10 wins- 7 teams 5.2% (same as last week)
9 wins- 10 teams 7.5% (up from 6)
8 wins- 14 teams 10.5% (down from 15)
7 wins- 11 teams 8.3% (down from 14)
6 wins- 21 teams 15.8% (up from 17)
5 wins- 25 teams 18.8% (up from 17)
4 wins- 14 teams 10.5% (down from 20)
3 wins- 17 teams 12.8% (down from 22)
2 wins- 7 teams 5.2% (down from 8)
1 win- 1 teams 0.8% (down from 2)
0 wins- 0 teams 0% (same as last week)
0 losses- 6 teams 4.5% (down from 7)
1 loss- 7 teams 4.5% (up from 6)
2 losses- 9 teams 6.8% (down from 14)
3 losses- 15 teams 11.2% (same as last week)
4 losses- 10 teams 7.5% (down from 19)
5 losses- 22 teams 16.5% (down from 23)
6 losses- 25 teams 18.8% (up from 17)
7 losses- 13 teams 9.8% (down from 21)
8 losses- 17 teams 12.8% (up from 8)
9 losses- 8 teams 6.0% (up from 1)
10 losses- 1 team 0.8% (up from 0)
Note: Numbers may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
Bowl Eligible/Eliminated
The following teams have qualified for a bowl by achieving 6 wins. So far, 67 teams have qualified (9 more than last week), so 15 more are needed (see notes below).
Air Force
Alabama
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Arizona
Auburn
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Clemson
Coastal Carolina
Duke
Fresno State
FSU
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Iowa State
Jacksonville State (see note 3 below)
James Madison (see note 3 below)
Kansas
Kansas State
Kentucky
Liberty
Louisville
LSU
Maryland
Memphis
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Missouri
NC State
New Mexico State
North Carolina
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Rutgers
San Jose State
SMU
South Alabama
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas State
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
UCLA
UNLV
USC
Utah
UTSA
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
WKU
Wyoming
The following 40 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration, 7 more than last week (see notes below):
Akron
Arkansas
Arizona State (see note 2 below)
Army (see note 1 below)
Ball State
Baylor
Buffalo
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Colorado
East Carolina
FAU
FIU
Hawaii
Houston
Indiana
Kent State
La Tech
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Nevada
New Mexico
North Texas
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Sam Houston
San Diego State
Southern Miss
Stanford
Temple
Tulsa
UAB
UConn
ULM
UMass
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
Western Michigan
NOTE 1: Army will need 7 wins as they play 2 FCS teams.
NOTE 2: Arizona State is observing a self imposed bowl ban for this year.
NOTE 3: James Madison, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston are in their 2nd season as transitional teams, and therefore are only eligible if there are not enough 6-win teams available.
NOTE 4: 5-7 teams may only be chosen if there are not enough 6-win teams available, and the supply of eligible transitional teams have been exhausted. These are chosen based on each eligible school's APR (Academic Progress Rate) standing.
NOTE 5: There are 41 bowls, so 82 teams (out of 133) will be needed.
NOTE 6: Hawaii plays 13 games, and so a 6-7 record will make them eligible.
The following teams are still "on the bubble" as far as qualifying for a bowl. Here is their remaining schedule, with my assessment of their chances to make it.
The following section was completed before Tuesday's games.
Teams needing 1 win:
Florida
Remaining Schedule- FSU
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Poor
Illinois
Remaining Schedule- Northwestern
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
Minnesota
Remaining Schedule- Wisconsin
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
Nebraska
Remaining Schedule- Iowa
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Poor
Syracuse
Remaining Schedule- WF
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
Virginia Tech
Remaining Schedule- at Virginia
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Good
UCF
Remaining Schedule- Houston
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
BYU
Remaining Schedule- at Okla St
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Poor
USF
Remaining Schedule- Charlotte
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Very Good
Utah State
Remaining Schedule- at New Mexico
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Very Good
Marshall
Remaining Schedule- Ark St
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
Louisiana
Remaining Schedule- ULM
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Good
Central Michigan
Remaining Schedule- Toledo
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Poor
Mississippi State
Remaining Schedule- Ole Miss
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Poor
South Carolina
Remaining Schedule- Clemson
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
TCU
Remaining Schedule- at Oklahoma
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Poor
Washington State
Remaining Schedule- at Washington
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Poor
California
Remaining Schedule- at UCLA
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
Navy
Remaining Schedule- at SMU, Army
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Good
Rice
Remaining Schedule- FAU
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Good
Colorado State
Remaining Schedule- at Hawaii
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Very Good
ODU
Remaining Schedule- Ga St
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
Northern Illinois
Remaining Schedule- at Kent St
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Excellent
Eastern Michigan
Remaining Schedule- at Buffalo
Chance to reach bowl eligibility- Fair
Updates on my playoff picks
Ohio State defeated Minnesota, Michigan defeated Maryland, and Alabama defeated an FCS team. Clemson beat Ga Tech, but with 4 losses on the season, they are eliminated from the CFP.
Of the other teams I mentioned as possibilities-
Georgia- Chances continue to increase with each win, but they'll probably need to win the SECCG.
USC- Nope.
Oregon- Loss to Washington hurts, but they're still in it.
Washington- Win over Oregon puts them in prime position.
Kansas State- Nope.
Texas- Will need to win the rest of their games, including the Big 12 Championship Game.
Texas Tech- Nope.
FSU- A favorite to replace Clemson.
NC State- Nope.
North Carolina- Nope.
LSU- Nope.
Penn State- Nope.
Wisconsin- Nope.
I don't see any G5 teams making the CFP, but if chaos should reign supreme, then the only possible candidates (at this point) would be Tulane, Toledo, or Liberty. All except Liberty have 1 loss, so it would be highly unlikely.
What If...
This scenario I presented 2 weeks ago is still in effect, and is looking more possible every week.
1) Alabama wins out and beats an undefeated Georgia in the SEC CG.
2) Louisville wins out and beats undefeated FSU in the ACC CG.
3) Texas wins out and wins the Big 12 CG.
6) Oregon wins out and beats an undefeated Washington in the Pac 12 CG.
Then you would have:
12-1 Alabama
12-1 Georgia
12-0 Big Ten Champion
11-1 Big Ten Runner Up
12-1 Louisville
12-1 FSU
12-1 Texas
12-1 Oregon
12-1 Washington
Who does the CFP Committee pick for the top 4? And the interesting thing is that all of these are plausible. This is what CFP chaos would look like, but next year, every one of these teams would be in.
Games I'm Excited About
There are some outstanding matchups this week, as this is rivalry week. Some of the great rivalries this week are:
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State
Iowa @ Nebraska
Texas Tech @ Texas
Oregon State @ Oregon
Ohio State @ Michigan (The Game)
Kentucky @ Louisville
Texas A&M at LSU
Indiana @ Purdue
Alabama @ Auburn
Arizona @ Arizona State
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State
Washington State @ Washington
FSU @ Florida
Georgia @ Georgia Tech (Clean Old Fashioned Hate)
Clemson @ South Carolina
North Carolina @ NC State
Other games of interest:
UTSA @ Tulane
Air Force @ Boise State
Penn State @ Michigan State
Navy @ SMU
San Jose State @ UNLV
Northwestern @ Illinois
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina
Notre Dame @ Stanford
California @ UCLA
Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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