Odds and Ends 11-30-23

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Welcome Back!

Before I get to my early picks, I want to give the top 10 teams in my statistical analysis that I use for my Power Rankings. These are the teams that are doing the best so far this season offensively and defensively combined, based on a formula I devised.

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. SMU
4. Notre Dame
5. Michigan
6. Penn State
7. Ohio State
8. FSU
9. Texas
10. Louisville

Here are the teams doing the worst statistically:

133. Nevada
132. ULM
131. Vanderbilt
130. FIU
129. Kent State
128. Stanford
127. BYU
126. Temple
125. Michigan State
124. Arizona State


 Inter-conference results 


I will give a full update on this next week.


Intra-conference results

Here are how the divisions stack up against each other going into the conference championship games:

The SEC West leads the SEC East 8-6, as the East was 1-0 vs the West last week.
The Big Ten East leads the Big Ten West 13-8, as the West was 1-0 vs the East last week.
The Sun Belt East leads the Sun Belt West 11-3, as the East was 1-0 against the West last week.
The Mac West leads the MAC East 10-8, as the East was 3-2 vs the West this week.

This means that the result of the CCG's will have no effect on the which division finishes ahead of the other. The closest divisions are in the SEC and MAC. The most lopsided division is in the Sun Belt, where the East won a whopping 78.6% of the games vs the West. In the Big Ten, the East won 61.9% vs the West. In the SEC, the West won 57.1% vs the East, and in the MAC, the West won 55.5%.


Which Conference is Best?

I will give a full update on this next week.


Which Division is Best?

I will give a full update on this next week.


Undefeated/Winless teams

These are the teams that are still undefeated, listed alphabetically:

FSU
Georgia
Liberty
Michigan
Washington


There are now NO winless teams!



There are 5 teams without a loss (1 less than last week), and zero winless teams (same as last week). This is how they break down by conference (1st number listed is number of undefeated teams, 2nd is number of winless teams):

Big Ten 1-0
ACC 1-0
Pac 12 1-0
SEC 1-0
CUSA 1-0
Sun Belt 0-0
Mountain West 0-0
Big 12 0-0
AAC 0-0
MAC 0-0
Independents 0-0

In addition, there is 1 team that has a win, but no wins against FBS competition:

Kent State

Here is how they break down by conference:

MAC- 1
AAC- 0
CUSA- 0
Sun Belt- 0
Pac 12- 0
ACC-0
Mountain West- 0
Big 12-0
SEC-0
Big Ten-0
Independents- 0


Winning/Losing Streaks

The following teams have the longest current winning streaks:

1) Georgia- 29 games
2) Washington -19
3) FSU- 18
T4) Michigan- 12
T4) Liberty- 12
6) Toledo- 11
T7) Alabama- 10
T7) Tulane- 10
9) Troy- 9
T10) SMU- 8
T10) New Mexico State- 8
T12) Texas- 6
T12) Oregon- 6
T12) Arizona- 6
T12) San Jose State- 6

The following have the longest current losing streaks:

T1) Vanderbilt- 10
T1) ULM- 10
3) Kent State- 9
T4) Colorado- 6
T4) La Tech- 6
T6) Wake Forest- 5
T6) Baylor- 5
T6) BYU- 5
T6) Georgia State- 5
T6) Florida- 5



How Many Wins/Losses?

Here is how the number of wins and losses breaks down:

12 wins- 5 teams 3.8% (up from 0)
11 wins- 7 teams 5.2% (up from 6)
10 wins- 10 teams 7.5% (up from 7)
9 wins- 8 teams 6.0% (down from 10)
8 wins- 14 teams 10.5% (same as last week)
7 wins- 16 teams 12.0% (up from 11)
6 wins- 21 teams 15.8% (same as last week)
5 wins- 15 teams 11.2% (down from 25)
4 wins- 15 teams 11.2% (up from 14)
3 wins- 16 teams 12.0% (down from 17)
2 wins- 5 teams 3.8% (down from 7)
1 win- 1 teams 0.8% (same as last week)
0 wins- 0 teams 0% (same as last week)

0 losses- 5 teams 3.8% (down from 6)
1 loss- 7 teams 4.5% (same as last week)
2 losses- 9 teams 6.8% (same as last week
3 losses- 9 teams 6.8% (down from 15)
4 losses- 14 teams 10.5% (up from 10)
5 losses- 16 teams 12.0% (down from 22)
6 losses- 23 teams 17.9% (down from 25)
7 losses- 12 teams 9.0% (down from 13)
8 losses- 16 teams 12.0% (down from 17)
9 losses- 16 teams 12.0% (up from 8)
10 losses- 5 teams 3.8% (up from 1)
11 losses- 1 team 0.8% (up from 0)

Note: Numbers may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.


Bowl Eligible/Eliminated 

The following teams have qualified for a bowl by achieving 6 wins. So far, 79 teams have qualified (12 more than last week), so 3 more are needed (see notes below).

Air Force
Alabama
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Arizona
Auburn
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
California
Clemson
Coastal Carolina
Duke
Eastern Michigan
Fresno State
FSU
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Iowa State
Jacksonville State (will be eligible-see note 3 below)
James Madison (will be eligible- see note 3 below)
Kansas
Kansas State
Kentucky
Liberty
Louisiana
Louisville
LSU
Marshall
Maryland
Memphis
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Missouri
NC State
New Mexico State
North Carolina
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Notre Dame
ODU
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Rice
Rutgers
San Jose State
SMU
South Alabama
Syracuse
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas State
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
UCF
UCLA
UNLV
USC
USF
Utah
Utah State
UTSA
Virginia Tech
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
WKU
Wyoming

The following 52 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration, 11 more than last week (see notes below):

Akron
Arkansas
Arizona State (see note 2 below)
Army (see note 1 below)
Ball State
Baylor
Buffalo
BYU
Central Michigan
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Colorado
Colorado State
East Carolina
FAU
FIU
Florida
Hawaii
Houston
Illinois
Indiana
Kent State
La Tech
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota- (will be eligible- See Note 4 below)
Mississippi State
Navy (though they could get to 6 wins by beating Army, bowl matchups will be set the week before they play)
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
North Texas
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Sam Houston
San Diego State
South Carolina
Southern Miss
Stanford
TCU
Temple
Tulsa
UAB
UConn
ULM
UMass
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington State
Western Michigan


NOTE 1: Army will need 7 wins as they play 2 FCS teams.
NOTE 2: Arizona State is observing a self imposed bowl ban for this year.
NOTE 3: James Madison, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston are in their 2nd season as transitional teams, and therefore are only eligible if there are not enough 6-win teams available.
NOTE 4: 5-7 teams may only be chosen if there are not enough 6-win teams available, and the supply of eligible transitional teams have been exhausted. These are chosen based on each eligible school's APR (Academic Progress Rate) standing. 
NOTE 5: There are 41 bowls, so 82 teams (out of 133) will be needed.
NOTE 6: Hawaii plays 13 games, and so a 6-7 record will make them eligible.



Updates on my playoff picks 

Michigan defeated Ohio State, and Alabama defeated Auburn. Clemson beat South Carolina, but with 4 losses on the season, they are eliminated from the CFP. 

Of the other teams I mentioned as possibilities- 

Georgia, Washington, Oregon, Texas, and FSU all have the best chances to make the CFP. Michigan appears to be a lock (they play 10-2 Iowa this weekend), with the winner of the Oregon-Washington game also having a strong case. The winner of Georgia-Alabama is probably in, but if Bama wins, they may need for Texas to lose to 9-3 Oklahoma State. FSU also only needs to get by 10-2 Louisville, but with starting QB Jordan Travis injured, and out for the game, that may not be as sure an outcame as was previously thought. This weekend will bring a lot of clarity, but... 


What If...

This scenario I presented 3 weeks ago is still somewhat in effect, and is looking more possible.

1) Alabama wins out and beats an undefeated Georgia in the SEC CG.
2) Louisville beats undefeated FSU in the ACC CG. 
3) Texas wins out and wins the Big 12 CG.
6) Oregon wins out and beats an undefeated Washington in the Pac 12 CG.

Then you would have:

12-1 Alabama
12-1 Georgia
13-0 Michigan
11-1 Ohio State
11-2 Louisville
12-1 FSU
12-1 Texas
12-1 Oregon
12-1 Washington

Who does the CFP Committee pick for the top 4? And the interesting thing is that all of these are plausible. This is what CFP chaos would look like, but next year, every one of these teams would be in.


Games I'm Excited About

I am excited about all of the conference championship games, but will not be able to watch some due to prior obligations. Which makes me sad...


Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Paul's Picks!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!     


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