Paul's Picks- Bowls Part III
Welcome Back!
The 1st bowl week, I was 4-4; not bad, but not good. I was sure I would do better the 2nd week. Boy, was I wrong! I was an embarrassingly poor 4-12 (25%!), which makes me an overall 8-16 for the bowls, meaning I've been correct only 1/3 of the time (which basically makes me the Mountain West)! Surely, I can't do any worse, can I? Please don't answer that...
This is Part 3 of 3. I'll have one more blog to preview the National Championship Game.
Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%/ That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle!
Just so you know, there will be no TWIF Notes following each week of bowl games. There are few enough games that you can find recaps in your local paper or online.
This is how each conference is doing in the bowls so far:
Thursday, December 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
SMU vs Boston College (Boston, MA)- Way back in 1986, the Mustangs defeated the Eagles in Irving, Texas by a score of 31-29. This will be the 2nd meeting between these 2. SMU is 7-10-1 in bowl games, losing each of their last 3 (since 2017). BC is 14-13 in bowls, losing their last 2 (since 2017), but they've had 2 bowl appearances cancelled since 2018. This is the 1st appearance for both teams in the Fenway Bowl, as this is only the 2nd year of its existence (Louisville beat Cincinnati 24-7 last year). The Ponies are 11-2 champions of the AAC, winning their last 9 games. The Eagles are 6-6, losing their last 3 after winning 5 straight in mid-season. I envision a rout, as SMU is the much better team. Mustangs win big.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers vs Miami (FL) (Bronx, NY)- The Hurricanes lead this series 11-0, winning every game between 1993-2003 when both were members of the Big East. The closest game was their 1st meeting, won 31-17 by the Canes, as the average score was 46-10.4. The Scarlet Knights are 6-5 in bowl games, losing 3 of their last 4 (since 2012), and they are 1-1 in the Pinstripe Bowl. Miami is 19-23 in bowls, losing their last 4 (since 2017), and they are 0-1 in this bowl, losing to Wisconsin 35-3 in 2018. Big Ten teams are 7-1 here while the ACC is 1-7. Rutgers is 6-6, losing their last 4 games after a 6-2 start. The Canes are 7-5, losing 3 of their last 4, but winning their last game. Both have good defenses, but only Miami has a competent offense. Hurricanes win.
Pop-Tarts Bowl
NC State vs Kansas State (Orlando, FL)- This will be the 1st time these teams will ever meet on the field of play. The Wolfpack are 17-16-1 in bowl games, losing 3 in a row (since 2018), and they are 3-2 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl (formerly the Blockbuster Bowl, the CarQuest Bowl, the MicronPC Bowl, the MicronPC.com Bowl, the Tangerine Bowl, the Champs Sports Bowl, the Russell Athletic Bowl, the Camping World Bowl, and the Cheez-It Bowl). The Wildcats are 10-14 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3 (since 2019), but winning 3 of their last 5 (since 2016). The ACC is 17-11 here, while the Big 12 is 4-8 (I was there for one of the Big12 wins over the ACC when Baylor defeated UNC 49-38 on Dec 29, 2015). NC State is 9-3, winning their last 5; KSU is 8-4, winning 2 of their last 3, and 5 of their last 7. Kansas State has the better offense, but NC State has a slightly better defense. KSU wins a close one.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Arizona vs Oklahoma (San Antonio, TX)- This series is tied at one win apiece, with each team winning at home in 1988 and 1989. The Wildcats are 9-11-1 in bowl games, losing 2 of their last 3 (since 2014), but winning 3 of their last 5 (since 2012), as this is their 1st bowl appearance since 2017. UA is 0-1 in the Alamo Bowl, losing 36-10 to Oklahoma State in 2010. The Sooners are 31-24-1 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3 (since 2020), as they are playing in a bowl for the 25th consecutive year (since 1999), and they are 1-0 in this game, winning 47-32 over Oregon in 2021. Big 12 teams are 15-12 here, while Pac 12 teams are 6-9. UA is 9-3, and on a 6-game winning streak. OU is 10-2, winning their last 3, as they have achieved 10+ wins for the 19th time in the last 24 years. Arizona will be attempting to win 10 games for the 1st time since 2014, and only the 2nd time since 1998. These 2 teams are very comparable statistically, so this is pretty much a coin flip game that will probably be decided by opt-outs, turnovers, and/or special teams. I'll go with Arizona, as I feel they have a better chance to stop the Sooners through the air than OU has of stopping the Wildcats.
Friday, December 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Clemson vs Kentucky (Jacksonville, FL)- The Wildcats lead the series 8-5, but half (4) of UK's wins were between 1925 and 1936, with the others in 1952, 1971, 1985, and in the 2006 Music City Bowl. The Tigers have wins in 1938, 1981 and '82, and in the 1993 Peach Bowl and the 2009 Music City Bowl. CU is 26-23 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4 (since the 2019 Championship Game loss to LSU), and they are 4-5 in the Gator Bowl, which has been played since 1946. With this being Clemson's 10th appearance in the game, this will break a tie with Florida for most appearances. UK is 12-10 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5 (since 2018), with their loss to Iowa last year breaking a 4-game winning streak. The Cats are 1-1 in this game, winning in 2021 over NC State, and losing in 2016 to Ga Tech. The Tigers are 8-4, winning their last 4 games, breaking a streak of 12 straight seasons of 10+ wins. Kentucky is 7-5, losing 5 of their last 7 after a 5-0 start, but a win in this game would give them 8+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons. UK has a good defense, but Clemson's is better, and the Tigers have the better offense as well, despite perceptions otherwise. Clemson wins.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Oregon State vs Notre Dame (El Paso, TX)- The Beavers lead the series 2 wins to none, winning games in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl and in the 2004 Insight Bowl. OSU is 12-7 in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 3 (since 2013), as they are 2-0 in the Sun Bowl (1st played in 1935), winning in 2006 and 2008 by a combined 4 points over Missouri and Pitt, respectively. The Fighting Irish are 20-21 in bowls, splitting their last 4 (since 2019), as they are 1-0 in this game defeating Miami, FL in 2010. This is the 7th consecutive year in a bowl for the Irish. OSU is 8-4, losing their last 2 (to Washington and Oregon) after an 8-2 start. ND is 9-3, winning their last 2 and 4 of their last 5 after beginning the year 4-0. Notre Dame wins a close game.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis vs Iowa State (Memphis, TN)- These teams have met once previously, and it was in this very bowl in 2017, with the Cyclones winning 21-20. The Tigers are 6-8 in bowl games, winning their last 2 (since 2020- their 2021 bowl was cancelled), and they are 0-1 in the Liberty Bowl, which began in 1959. ISU is 5-12 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4 (since 2018), and they are 1-2 in this one, with the win over Memphis in 2017, and losses to GT (31-30 in 1972) and Tulsa (31-17 in 2012). The AAC is 3-2 here, while Big 12 teams are 4-6. Memphis is 9-3, winning 5 of their last 6 (only loss to AAC champion SMU by 4), and this is basically a home game for them. The Cyclones are 7-5, winning 2 of their last 3 and 5 of their last 7, as they fell just short of making the Big 12 title game. This is the classic matchup of a good offense (Memphis) versus a good defense (ISU), but neither team is very good on the other side of the ball, so this game, like so many others, may come down to turnovers, special teams, opt-outs, and momentum. Memphis wins a close one.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Missouri vs Ohio State (Arlington, TX)- The Buckeyes lead this series 10-1-1, but the last meeting was in 1998, and they've met only 3 times since 1949, with the Tigers winning in 1976 in The Horseshoe in Columbus. They played 9 times between 1939 and 1949, with the 13-13 tie occurring in 1946. Mizzou is 15-20 in bowl games, losing their last 4 (since 2017), and they are 2-1 in the Cotton Bowl (which began in 1937), winning in 2007 and 2013 under former HC Gary Pinkel, and losing in 1945 under HC Chauncy Simpson. OSU is 27-28 in bowls, alternating wins and losses since 2018, as they have played in a bowl for 11 consecutive years, 23 of the last 24 years (since 2000), and 33 of the last 35 years (since 1989). In fact, they've played in a bowl in 48 of the last 52 years (since 1972)! The Buckeyes are 2-0 in this bowl, winning in 1986 under HC Earle Bruce, and in 2017 under HC Urban Meyer. The Big Ten is 5-1 here, while SEC teams are 24-16-1. MU is 10-2, winning their last 3 and 5 of their last 6, as their only losses were to LSU at home and Georgia on the road, and they were 4-2 against bowl teams. The OSU is 11-1, with their loss to Michigan ending their 11-game winning streak, and they were 6-1 vs bowl teams. The Buckeyes have one of the top defenses in the country, but only a modest offense. Mizzou is solid, if not spectacular, on both sides of the ball. I'll take solid. Tigers win in a mild upset.
Saturday, December 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Ole Miss vs Penn State (Atlanta, GA)- This is the 1st time these teams will ever meet on the gridiron. The Rebels are 24-16 in bowl games, losing their last 2, and they are 1-1 in the Peach Bowl (which started in 1968, changed its name to the Chick-fil-A Bowl, and then back to the Peach Bowl), winning in 1971 under HC Billy Kinard, and losing in 2014 under HC Hugh Freeze. The Nittany Lions are 31-19-2 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3, and they are making their 1st appearance in this bowl, and a 9th bowl appearance in the last 10 seasons. The SEC is 22-16-1 here, while the Big Ten is 3-7. Both teams are 10-2, with UM winning 7 of their last 8, their only losses to Alabama and Georgia, as they are 5-2 vs bowl teams. PSU won 4 of their last 5, with their only losses to Michigan and Ohio State, as they are also 5-2 against bowl teams. Their resumes are about as close to even as possible, but despite Penn State's top 3 ranking in scoring and total defense, I think the Rebels win.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Auburn vs Maryland (Nashville, TN)- The Tigers lead the series 2-1, with the Terrapins winning in 1952 in Birmingham, and the Plainsmen winning in 1958 and 1983 in Auburn. The War Eagles are 24-20-2 in bowl games, losing their last 2, as this will be their 21st bowl appearance in the last 24 seasons. They are 2-0 in the Music City Bowl, which has been played since 1998, winning in 2003 and 2018. The Terps are 13-14-2 in bowls, winning their last 2 (since 2021) after losing the previous 3 (since 2013). UM will be making their 1st appearance in this bowl. SEC teams are 9-14 here, while Big Ten teams are 5-4. AU is 6-6, losing their last 2, but winning 3 of their last 5. Maryland is 7-5, winning 2 of their last 3 after a 4-game midseason losing skid, which followed a 5-0 start. All the Terps have to do is stop the run, as the Tigers can't pass. Maryland wins.
Capital One Orange Bowl
Georgia vs FSU (Miami Gardens, FL)- The Bulldogs lead the series 6-4-1, winning the 1st 5 meetings (played between 1954 and 1959), and losing the next 4 (between 1961-1965). Their last 2 meetings were in bowl games, with the teams tying in the 1984 Florida Citrus Bowl (I was there for the 17-17 game), and the Dawgs winning in the 2003 Sugar Bowl. UGA is 37-21-3 in bowl games (I was there for 2 of the ties!), winning their last 6 (since 2019), as they hold the longest current streak of bowl appearances at 27 in a row (since 1997), and they are making their 51st appearance in the last 60 years (since 1964). They are 3-1 in the Orange Bowl, which started in 1935, winning in 1941, and 1959 under HC Wally Butts, and in 2021 under HC Kirby Smart, and losing in 1948 under HC Butts. The Seminoles are 29-17-2 in bowl games, winning 3 of their last 4 (since 2016), as they are appearing in a bowl for the 47th time in the last 60 seasons (since 1964), which includes an incredible streak of 36 straight between 1982 and 2017. The Noles are 5-5 in this bowl, winning their last 2 in 2012 and 2016. The SEC is 22-17 here, and the ACC is 11-17. FSU is 13-0 and on a 19-game winning streak. The Dawgs are 12-1, and just had their 29-game winning streak snapped by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Both teams feel they deserve to be in the CFP, but which will be more motivated to win? Georgia has been the best team statistically almost all season, but the Seminoles aren't far behind, as they are actually better in scoring defense and in passing defense. UPDATE: FSU has had 20 players opt out of this game. Dawgs win.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Toledo vs Wyoming (Tucson, AZ)- This series is tied at 1-1, with each team winning on the road in 2010 and 2012, and both games being decided by 7 points or less. The Rockets are 11-9 in bowl games, winning last year, but losing 4 in a row before then (since 2016). They will be making their 1st appearance in the Arizona Bowl. The Cowboys are 9-9 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4 (since 2017), and they are 1-1 in this bowl, winning in 2019, and losing last year to Ohio. Mountain west teams are 4-4 here, while MAC teams are 2-0. Toledo is the 11-2 MAC West champion, winning 11 in a row before losing to Miami in the MAC CG. Wyoming is 8-4, winning their last 2, and 3 of their last 4, and HC Craig Bohl is retiring after the game. The Cowboys have a terrible offense and a good defense, while the Rockets are decent on both sides of the ball. Toledo wins.
Monday, January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Wisconsin vs LSU (Tampa, FL)- The Tigers lead the series 3-1, winning in 1971 and '72 in a home-and-home, and in 2014 in Houston, Texas, but losing in 2016 in Green Bay, WI. The Badgers are 19-15 in bowl games, winning their last 3, and 8 of their last 9 (since 2014), as this will be their 22nd straight bowl appearance (since 2002), and their 29th in the last 31 years (since 1993). They are 2-3 in the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Hall of Fame Bowl, and then the Outback Bowl until this year), which began in 1986. They have wins in 1995 over Duke and 2015 over Auburn in OT, and losses in 1998 to Georgia, 2005, also to Georgia, and in 2008 to Tennessee. The Bayou Bengals are 29-24-1 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5, as they are appearing in a bowl for the 23rd time in the last 24 seasons. They are 1-1 in this bowl, with a loss in 1989 to Syracuse, and a win in 2014 over Iowa (since vacated). The Big Ten is 13-21 here, while SEC teams are 20-13. UW is 7-5, winning their last 2 games. LSU is 9-3, winning their last 3, and 6 of their last 7 (loss to Alabama on the road). The Tigers have had a stellar offense, and it is unknown at this time whether Heisman Trophy winning QB Jayden Daniels will participate. If he doesn't, there is a very capable backup in Garrett Nussmeier. Although the LSU defense is pitiful, they only need a stop and/or a turnover on 2 or 3 drives to simply outscore Wisconsin. Tigers win, and I'll be surprised if it's close, especially if Daniels plays.
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Liberty vs Oregon (Glendale, AZ)- To the surprise of no one, this is the 1st time these 2 will play each other on a football field. The Flames are 3-1 in bowl games, playing each of the last 4 years, and this will be their 1st appearance in the Fiesta Bowl, which began in 1971 as a way to give the WAC champion a bowl game, as they were rarely invited to major bowls, regardless of their record. LU is 3-10 against Power 5 schools (4-11 if you count BYU) in their brief FBS history (since 2018), with wins at Syracuse, Arkansas, and Va Tech, and vs BYU at home in 2022. The Ducks are 16-20 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5, as they have appeared in a bowl in 30 of the last 35 seasons. They are 2-1 in this bowl, winning in 2002 and 2013, and losing in 2021. The Pac 12 is 6-6-1 here, while this is the 1st appearance for a CUSA team. The Flames are 13-0 and champions of CUSA, but played no P5 opponents this year. Oregon is 11-2, with both losses by 3 each to Washington, who will be playing in the CFP. The Ducks are in a "no win" situation here, as if they win big, that is what is expected, but if they play a close game, or, heaven forbid, lose, then their reputation, and the reputation of the entire Pac 12, would take a hit. Oregon wins easily.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Iowa vs Tennessee (Orlando, FL)- The Volunteers lead the series 2-1, winning in 1987 in East Rutherford, NJ (the old Kickoff Classic), and in the 2015 TaxSlayer Bowl, and losing in the 1982 Peach Bowl. The Hawkeyes are 18-16-1 in bowl games, winning 4 of their last 5, as they have played in a bowl in 20 of the last 23 seasons (their 2020 bowl game was cancelled), and 34 of the last 43 years. They are 1-1 in the Citrus Bowl (formerly the Tangerine Bowl, Florida Citrus Bowl, and Capital One Bowl), which began in 1947, with a win in 2004 and a loss in 2021. The Vols are 30-25 in bowls, winning 5 of their last 6, and they have appeared in 45 bowl games in the last 59 seasons (since 1965), but they also appeared in 11 bowls between 1938 and 1957, when there were far fewer bowl games. They are 4-1 in this bowl, and this appearance will tie them with Georgia for the most of any team. Big Ten teams are 13-18 here, while SEC teams are 24-14-1 (the tie was the UGA-FSU game in 1984 mentioned above). Iowa is 10-3, winning 4 of their last 5 (loss to Michigan in the Big Ten CG), and UT is 8-4, losing 2 of their last 3 (at Missouri and vs Georgia). The Hawkeyes have the worst offense in FBS, but a stellar defense; the Vols are very good on both sides of the ball. Iowa scored more than 20 points only 4 times, with 24 vs Utah State, 41 vs W Mich, 26 vs Michigan State, and 22 vs Rutgers, all at home. The Volunteers scored less than 20 just 3 times: 16 at Florida, 7 at Missouri, and 10 vs Georgia at home. The magic number for Tennessee is 2 TDS and a FG- score 17, and they should win. I think they can, and actually think they'll get 20 or more. Vols win easily.
CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential
4 Alabama vs 1 Michigan (Pasadena, CA)- The Crimson Tide leads the series 3-2, with all but 1 meeting (2012, in Arlington, Texas on Sep 1, a 41-14 Alabama win) happening in a bowl game. That means they are 2-2 against each other in bowls, with the Tide winning in 1997 (Outback Bowl) and 2020 (Citrus Bowl), and the Wolverines winning in 1988 (Hall of Fame Bowl) and 2000 (Orange Bowl). UA is 46-27-3 in bowl games, winning 5 of their last 6 (since 2019), and this is their 20th consecutive season in a bowl (since 2004). They also had a string of 25 straight bowl appearances between 1959-1983, the entirety of HC Bear Bryant's reign (minus his 1st year in 1958) and extending 1 year into HC Ray Perkins tenure. Since 1959, they have appeared in a bowl in 59 of 65 seasons, and were in 13 bowls between 1925 and 1953 under 3 different HCs: Wallace Wade, Frank Thomas, and Red Drew. They are 5-1-1 in the Rose Bowl, which began in 1902, but didn't resurface again until 1916, as they were the 1st Southern team to be invited, winning in 1925, 1930, 1934, 1945 and 2020, tying in 1926, and losing in 1937. UM is 21-19 in bowls, losing their last 6 (since 2016), as they have appeared in 45 bowls in the last 49 seasons (since 1975), with a run of 33 consecutive years from 1975-2007, which I think is the 2nd longest by any team (behind FSU's 36-year streak mentioned above). They are 8-12 in this bowl, as the Big Ten is 34-39 here, and the SEC is 8-3-1. It must be remembered that from 1947 through 2001, this game was between the Big Ten champion and the Pac 8/10 champion. The Tide is 12-1, winning their last 11, as they have won at least 10 games for an incredible 16 consecutive seasons (since 2008), with 3 seasons of 11 wins, 4 of 12 wins (including this one), 4 with 13 wins, and 4 with 14 wins, but 2009 and 2020 were their only undefeated seasons. The Wolverines are 13-0, and are 38-3 over the last 3 seasons, plus 2 losses in their last 2 CFP appearances. Will they lose in the 1st round for the 3rd year in a row? Are they the 20's version of Oklahoma, who could never get past the 1st round in the Teens? One of the advantages of going to the 12-team playoff is that no team will have a month to prepare for their opponent, and no one is better at that than Bama's Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide wins, and I expect a result much like the Georgia-Michigan semifinal in 2021, a 34-11 UGA win.
CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
3 Texas vs 2 Washington (New Orleans, LA)- The Longhorns lead the series 3-2, winning both ends of a home-and-home in 1974 and 1975, and winning 1 of their 3 bowl matchups, 47-43 in the 2001 Holiday Bowl, with the Huskies winning 14-7 in the 1979 Sun Bowl, and 27-20 in the Alamo Bowl last year. UT is 31-25-2 in bowl games, winning 4 of their last 5 (since 2017), and this is their 25th bowl appearance in the last 29 seasons, but 1st in the CFP. They are 2-2 in the Sugar Bowl, which started in 1935, winning in 1947 and 2018, and losing in 1957 and 1995. UW is 19-20-1 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4 (since 2017), as this is their 12th bowl in the last 14 seasons, and their 2nd CFP appearance. This will be their 1st appearance in the Sugar Bowl. The Big 12 is 4-5 here, but the Big 8 was 8-3, and the Southwest Conference was 6-7, for a combined 18-15. The Pac 12 is has never had a team in the Sugar Bowl, so the Huskies are the first! Texas is 12-1, winning their last 7 games, with their only loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas. Washington is 13-0, winning their last 20 games in a row, the nation's longest current winning streak. UW's strength is their passing offense (ranked #1) which just so happens to be Texas's one weakness. The Huskies will find some way to win a close game, moving their winning streak to 21 games, and preventing a rematch between Texas and Alabama.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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