TWIF Notes 12-11-23
Welcome Back!
The Army-Navy Game was everything it promised to be! The atmosphere and pageantry of this game is like no other, and the game more than lived up to its billing.
Let's get to the recap!
FBS vs FBS Games
Army edged Navy 17-11 in yet another exciting matchup between these 2. The Black Knights seemed firmly in control with a 17-3 lead, but Navy scored a TD (with a missed 2-pt conversion) with 2:47 left to pull within 17-9, and had a chance to tie the game late, but their 4th down attempt from inside the 5 fell short, and Army took over with 2 seconds left, and gave the Midshipmen a meaningless safety on the last play of the game. Army finishes 6-6 (with 2 FCS wins) while Navy tumbles to 5-7, their 4th losing season in a row.
With only 1 game this past week, I thought it might be fun, or at least interesting, to revisit my preseason conference narratives. Here is what I had to say about each conference.
MAC
Chances to make the playoff: Slim to none. Any team would have to go undefeated, but the teams with the best chance, Toledo and Ohio, just don’t have the strength of schedule to justify inclusion. The Rockets play at Illinois and at UMass, and host San Jose State and an FCS team. The Bobcats play at San Diego State and FAU, and host an FCS team and Iowa State. The teams that would really have a chance if they could go undefeated would be Miami (at Miami and at Cincinnati), Kent State (at UCF and at Arkansas), WMU (at Syracuse and at Iowa), NIU (at Boston College and at Nebraska), CMU (at Mich State and at Notre Dame), or, most of all, Ball State, who travels to Kentucky and Georgia in back-to-back weeks to open the season.
Don’t be surprised if… the MAC improves on their 12-29 record (29.2%) against FBS competition from last year, and approaches a 35% winning percentage this year, including at least 3 wins over P5 teams (had 2 last year).
I’m not convinced… the MAC will improve on their 2 losses to FCS teams that they had last year.
Verdict: Meh, as no team made the CFP, the MAC did NOT improve on their 35% winning percentage against FBS competition (in fact, they dropped to 27.8%), but they did not improve on their 2 losses to FCS teams, as they once again lost to 2.
Chances to make the playoff: Almost zero. I’m not saying there is no chance, but, basically, yeah, there’s no way any team from CUSA makes it into the CFP, even if one were to go undefeated, though that would mean WKU besting Ohio State, or UTEP beating 2 P5 teams, or Middle Tennessee winning at Alabama and at Missouri the 1st 2 weeks of the season. But honestly, do you see any of those scenarios happening?
Don’t be surprised if… Sam Houston and JSU win a few games, but I don’t expect them to have success on the same level that James Madison had last year (8-3), though the competition in CUSA is much easier than the competition in the Sun Belt.
I’m not convinced… Middle Tennessee will finish 2nd. I think any of the teams I have listed 2-6 have a chance to grab that 2nd spot, or even to grab 1st and move WKU down to 2nd, though I think the Hilltoppers are far and away the best team in CUSA.
Verdict: Not bad, as no team made the CFP, SHS and JSU had some success (though JSU was better than anyone expected), and MTSU did not finish 2nd in the conference, and WKU was moved out of 1st (to the surprise of everyone).
Sun Belt
Chances to make the playoff: Almost zero. It would take a near miracle of events to propel a Sun Belt Conference team into the 4-team playoff, but when the CFP expands to 12 teams next year, that will be a different story. There are certainly teams that could challenge if they could go undefeated and win the conference: App St would have a victory on the road over North Carolina, Marshall would have 2 P5 wins (Va Tech and at NC State), CCU would have 2 tough road wins (at UCLA and at Army), as would South Alabama (at Tulane and at Oklahoma State), but Troy could have the strongest case, with wins on the road at Kansas State and Army, and a home win over CUSA favorite WKU, but does anyone really believe any of these teams will run the table?
Don’t be surprised if… Sun Belt teams win at least 4 out of 18 games against Power 5 teams, a .222 mark, bettering last year’s 3-13 (.1875) record.
I’m not convinced… Georgia State will finish as low as 6th in the SBC East. I think they will have a bounce back season and might finish as high as 3rd or 4th with at least a .500 record in the conference. As an added bonus, I’ll say that James Madison won’t match last year’s 8 overall wins (even though they’ll play an extra game this year), and won’t match last year’s 6 SBC wins.
Verdict: Partially right, as no team made the CFP, the Sun Belt was exactly 4-14 against P5 teams, and Georgia State tied for 5th (last) but finished 3-5 instead of 4-4, thanks to a 5-game losing streak to end the season. But I should have quit while I was ahead, as I was WAY wrong on JMU.
Mountain West
Chances to make the playoff: Slim. Boise State and San Diego State would have the only legitimate chances, as they each could go undefeated, and that would include wins over 2 P5 teams. The Broncos would have to get by Washington and Memphis on the road, and UCF at home, and that could get them close, depending on how well those teams do the rest of the season. The Aztecs would need to beat Ohio and UCLA at home, and Oregon State on the road, and then need all 3 of those to do well in their respective conferences and in their other OOC games. Even then, it might not be enough.
Don’t be surprised if… the MWC struggles to duplicate their 2 wins from last season against the Pac 12. While 3 wins are possible, I think 1-9 is more likely.
I’m not convinced… New Mexico will finish last, even though that’s where my numbers put them. In fact, I think they have a chance to finish as high as 9th.
AAC
Chances to make the playoff: Slim to none. A team like Tulane, who established itself by beating USC in the Rose Bowl last year, would have a chance, if it could be an undefeated conference champion, but a lot would depend on how good teams are from the other power conferences. Every team in the conference plays at least 1 P5 opponent, and some- Tulsa (at Wash, Okla at home), Charlotte (at Maryland, at Fla), Temple (at Rutgers, Miami Fl at home), FAU (at Clemson, at Illinois), and SMU (at Okla, at TCU)- play 2 P5 teams, so theoretically, any undefeated AAC team would have a case, but even then, the conference is so weak that the most likely landing spot would be one of the NY6 Bowls.
Don’t be surprised if… any of the teams I have listed 3-8 sneak into one of the top 2 spots and into the AAC Championship Game.
I’m not convinced… the AAC will grab the NY6 slot this year; I think it could go to the MWC or the SBC.
Chances to make the playoff: Notre Dame has the only realistic chance from this group of making the CFP, and I’d rate their chances at 25-30% at best, as they would have to be undefeated to make it, and with games against OSU, USC, and on the road at Clemson, that doesn’t seem too likely.
Don’t be surprised if… the Irish lose 2 of their big 3 games (OSU, USC, Clemson) for a 2nd year in a row, and possibly even all 3 this year.
I’m not convinced… UMass can win more than 1 game again this year, and I’m not sure they can do even that, which would require a win over FCS Merrimack.
Chances to make the playoff: Very Good. The Pac 12 champion should be in good shape to make it into the CFP as long as they have less than 2 losses. USC is the obvious candidate, both because they came close last year and because they play Notre Dame, which should give them a boost, especially if the Irish can beat either Ohio State or Clemson, or both. Utah would be the next most likely, as they play 11 P5 opponents with Florida at home and Baylor on the road; go 13-0 or 12-1 (or 11-1) with that schedule, and they would be a strong pick. Oregon (at Texas Tech) and Washington (at Mich St) play one P5 foe each, and it’s on the road at that, but OSU and UCLA would almost have to be undefeated and the Pac 12 champion to make it in, as their OOC schedules don’t include any P5 opponents (the Beavers play 2 MWC teams and an FCS team while the Bruins play an MWC, a Sun Belt, and an FCS team.
Don’t be surprised if… Utah repeats as P12 champion for the 3rd year in a row.
I’m not convinced… Colorado will finish last in the conference; I think Stanford might end up there.
Big 12
Chances to make the playoff: Very Good. An undefeated or 1-loss Big 12 champion will always have a chance for inclusion in the 4-team playoff, but as TCU proved last year, you don’t even have to be the champion. Texas appears to be the best team (how many times have we heard that before), and if they go undefeated, or with only a close loss to an Alabama team that also goes 12-0 or 11-1, then they would have a strong case, especially if they win the Big 12 Championship Game. Other teams might have a harder time either undefeated or with a loss, as their OOC slates aren’t quite as tough: OU (no P5 opponents), KSU (at Mizzou), TCU (Colorado), Baylor (Utah), TTU (Oregon), OSU (at Ariz St), ISU (Iowa), UCF (no P5), Kansas (Illinois), BYU (at Arkansas), Houston (no P5), and Cincinnati (at Pitt). The one team I left out, WVU, actually plays TWO P5 foes- at Penn State and Pitt at home, so if they could somehow run the table or finish with just one loss, they would have a very strong resume. But how likely is that? About as likely as TCU going 12-0, losing in the Big 12 CG and still making the CFP and then upsetting Michigan, I guess.
Don’t be surprised if… Texas Tech finishes in the top half of the conference, and perhaps even in the top 3 or 4 (maybe the top 2?).
I’m not convinced… West Virginia will finish last, despite their difficult schedule, as I believe they might actually make it to a bowl this year.
ACC
Chances to make the playoff: Very Good. All any team needs to do is win the conference with no more than one loss, depending on who that loss is to, and by how much. it’s also possible that 2 ACC teams could make the playoff if one finishes the season undefeated and the other has only a close loss in the Championship Game, or if both teams play each other twice and split the 2 meetings, with that loss being their only one. Clemson and FSU seem to be the most likely candidates, but just about every team has the strength of schedule if they meet the above criteria.
Don’t be surprised if… Georgia Tech finishes around .500, both in their overall record and in the conference, which should put them in the middle of the conference.
I’m not convinced… Duke and/or Wake Forest will finish as low as I have them, despite what my numbers say, but who above them would tumble down? In my opinion, you could take the teams I have listed at 3 through 9, write their names on separate sheets of paper, then jumble them up in a hat and randomly draw them out, your chances of getting the order correct are probably about as good as any of the pundits (or me).
Chances to make the playoff: Excellent. With 2 teams making it last year, it’s possible that 2 make it in the CFP this year, the question being, which two? Almost everyone thinks the East will be a 3-team race between Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, so one of these is most likely to make the playoff. However, the Wolverines have such an easy non-conference schedule that they may need to go undefeated to make it in, or only have one loss and win the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes have the game against Notre Dame to bolster their SOS, while the Nittany Lions have West Virginia. Every other team plays 1 P5 team in their OOC schedule, except Purdue, who plays 2 (at Va Tech and Syracuse at home), so any team that runs the table or has 1 loss would have a pretty strong case.
Don’t be surprised if… Michigan defeats Ohio State for a 3rd straight year, as they are the only one of the “Big Three” who has their starting QB returning.
I’m not convinced… Maryland will finish behind Michigan State. I think they’ll probably end up in 4th. While I’m at it, I also think Rutgers finishes ahead of Indiana, despite what my numbers indicate.
Chances to make the playoff: Excellent. The SEC has had a participant in each CFP, and sometimes have had 2. But for Georgia to get there, they must be an undefeated or 1-loss SEC champion; 11-1 without making the SEC Championship Game, or 12-0 with a loss in the CG, probably won’t be good enough due to their strength of schedule (unless Ga Tech suddenly becomes a force in the ACC). Alabama at least has Texas on their OOC slate, with LSU having FSU. But Texas A&M and Tennessee are in much the same boat as Georgia, with Miami, Fl and Virginia their OOC P5 opponents respectively. The chances of having 2 teams in the 4 team playoff are not as good as in years past, in my opinion, due to the schedules just not being as strong as usual.
Don’t be surprised if… Missouri challenges UT for 2nd place in the SEC East, and might even be the biggest possibility to handing the Dawgs a loss and ending their long winning streak.
I’m not convinced… either Florida or Ole Miss will finish higher than 5th in their respective divisions.
Verdict: Very close, as Georgia did not make the CFP (though Bama did), Missouri did finish 2nd in the SEC East, almost beating UGA, and Florida finished in a 3-way tie for 4th. However, Ole Miss was 2nd in the SEC West, so...
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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