Paul's Picks- Part IV- National Championship Game
Welcome Back!
The 1st bowl week, I was 4-4; not bad, but not good. I was sure I would do better the 2nd week. Boy, was I wrong! I was an embarrassingly poor 4-12 (25%!), which made me an overall 8-16 for the bowls, meaning I had been correct only 1/3 of the time! Fortunately, I finished strong, going 13-4 over the last 17 games (76.5%) to finish 21-20 overall (a very mediocre 51.2%).
Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%/ That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle!
For the year, I finished 674-235, or 74.1%, with the bowls knocking 1.1% off my winning percentage.
This is how each conference did in the bowls:
Monday, January 8
National Championship Game (Houston, Texas)
2 Washington vs 1 Michigan- The Wolverines lead this series 8-5, winning home-and-homes in 1953-54, and 1969-70, in 2002 and 2021 in Ann Arbor, and in the 1981 and 1993 Rose Bowls. The Huskies have wins in a home-and-home in 1983-84, in 2001 in Seattle, and in the 1978 and 1992 Rose Bowls, so the teams are 2-2 against each other in bowl games, and this is each team's 1st appearance in the National Championship Game. With their wins on New Year's Day, Michigan is 22-29 in bowls and Washington is 20-20-1. UM is 1-2 in CFP games, having appeared in each of the last 3 years, and UW is 1-1 after making their 1st appearance since 2016. In CFP games, the Big Ten is 4-7 with one championship (Ohio State in 2014) from 3 teams (Michigan, OSU, and Michigan State), and the Pac 12 is 2-2 with 0 championships from 2 teams (UW and Oregon).
Here is how the teams stack up statistically:
Note: All stats are pulled from the official NCAA website, which means transitional teams (James Madison, Jax State, and Sam Houston) are not included, so the rankings are out of 130 teams, and not the 133 that actually played FBS Football this season. Also, I have no idea how passing efficiency and passing efficiency defense is calculated, but I included it in case you do. Finally, time of possession is only given in minutes, not broken down by seconds, so there is no way of knowing if UW possesses the ball for 30 minutes and 1 second per game, or 30:29 per game (or even 30:59 per game, for that matter).
It's obvious from looking at the stats why the Wolverines are favored- they are better defensively, they play better on special teams, and they don't commit a lot of penalties. The Huskies are a lot better in only one category- passing. This makes them slightly better overall on offense. These are 5 keys to this game:
1) Can the Washington OL control the line of scrimmage and give Penix enough time to find his receivers? If so, he can pick apart the defense; if not, it's going to be a long night.
2) Can the Washington DL contain the Michigan offense enough to force FGs in the red zone instead of giving up TDs?
3) Can the Huskies play disciplined enough to not give away 1st downs on penalties, allowing the Wolverines multiple chances to extend drives? In addition, UM must continue to play the disciplined game they have all year
4) Will Michigan continue to win the turnover battle?
5) Can either team limit (or avoid) special team mistakes?
Having considered all the history and the stats, I'm going with the Huskies to pull the upset as a "Team of Destiny". Let's just hope it doesn't turn out like last year's National Championship Game...
On a personal note, I will probably cut back next season. I spent anywhere from 20-30 hours (or more) per week doing research and publishing my blog 4 days a week. That's in addition to the many hours I spent doing my preseason predictions. And though I'm retired and only working part time, that's a lot of work that ends up being read by only 10-15 people each week.
Preliminarily, I'm looking at cutting back to just 2-3 days per week. I'll probably drop my Monday TWIF Notes, or if I don't, just review highlights rather than every game. My Power Rankings will continue, as will my Odds and Ends (I think), but if I do my picks each week, I will definitely pare those down to just a few points- maybe just the series history and my picks.
Anyway, feel free to leave a comment. It's been a fun season, and I appreciate each of the readers who spent time with me.
May you and your loved ones be blessed!
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