College Football Preview Part X

 Welcome Back!

I apologize not getting this out earlier, but I've been dealing with a big move to a different state, a new job, and then some unexpected health problems. I will just continue the scheduled blogs, but will be a day or 2 behind until next Monday, when I hope to be back on schedule. 

Today continues 5 weeks of my college football previews, with the 1st 3 weeks of individual team previews, and then concluding with 2 weeks of conference previews.

In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 3 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, and Athlon), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.

I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc. 

I would like to invite you to fill out the fan survey in one of my previous blogs. It's titled, curiously enough, "College Football Fan Survey", so it shouldn't be difficult to find.

Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, feel free to just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.

So, on with the previews! Today is #s 40-31.

40- UTSA Roadrunners 9-4/7-1

Coach: Jeff Traylor (5th year, 5th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 39-14/.736/11th

3-year record/rank: 32-9/.780/T6th

6-year record/rank: 46-31/.597/41st

10-year record/rank: 65-60/.520/T64th

Last League Title: 2022 CUSA champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 4 years/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 1-4/.200/126th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 2011- best season was 12-2 in 2021 under HC Jeff Traylor)

Last Winless Season: Never (worst seasons were 3-9 in both 2015 and 2018

All-time Record/Rank: 84-75/.528/71st

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 31.57/37th/4th AAC

Rushing: 174.8/48th/6th

Passing: 249.8/49th/8th

Total: 424.6/38th/6th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 24.67/57th/5th

Rushing: 137.7/44th/5th

Passing: 231.6/77th/7th

Total: 369.3/56th/5th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/7

Schedule: 

Aug 31 vs Kennesaw State

Sep 7 @ Texas State

Sep 14 @ Texas

Sep 21 vs Houston Christian

Sep 28 @ East Carolina

Oct 12 @ Rice

Oct 19 vs FAU

Oct 26 @ Tulsa

Nov 2 vs Memphis

Nov 15 vs North Texas

Nov 22 vs Temple

Nov 30 @ Army

Chances for a winning season: There’s no doubt the Roadrunners will have a winning season, as they seem poised to win the AAC this year (or at least challenge for the crown). After opening against new FBS member Kennesaw State, they go on the road to face Texas State and Texas. In the AAC, they avoid Tulane and USF, and get Memphis and FAU at home. All-in-all, their schedule is very favorable.

Chances to make a bowl game: There is every expectation that UTSA will be in a bowl for a 5th consecutive year.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Much will depend on 3 factors: whether they win the AAC, how they do against Texas State, and how they do against Texas. The result of the game against the Bobcats in San Marcos may be the deciding factor if those 2 teams win their respective conferences and have similar records. And if they play the Longhorns close in Austin, that could be a factor in their favor.

Notes: The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 9 games; offense scored 34+ points in 8 games, but were held to 16 or less 3 times (all losses); defense allowed 30+ just twice (high of 37); UTSA has won 11 of their last 12 home games; the Roadrunners have been to a bowl each of the last 4 years, and 5 times in their 12 years at the FBS level; QB is between 2 backups from last year, Owen McCown (442 yds, 74.1%, s,4 TDs, 3 INTs, son of NFL/SMU QB Josh McCown) and Eddie Lee Marburger (300 yds, 61.7%, 3 TDs, 1 INT); K Chase Allen (13-15 FGs, long of 53) returns, but P will be new; offense averaged a respectable 4.3 ypc rushing; defense allowed 63 plays of 20+ yds, and opponents scored 35 times on 42 red zone trips (83.3%).

39- Kansas Jayhawks 9-4/5-4

Coach: Lance Leipold (4th year, 10th overall FBS)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 54-54/.500/79th

3-year record/rank: 17-21/.447/T88th

6-year record/rank: 23-48/.324/118th

10-year record/rank: 29-90/.244/128th

Last League Title: 1968 Big Eight co-champs/1930 Big Eight champions/2007 Big 12 North co-champs

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 2 years/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 7-7/.500/56th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1923/5-0-3 under HC Potsy Clark and 1908/9-0 under HC Doc Kennedy

Last Winless Season: 2020/0-9

All-time Record/Rank: 603-681-58/.471/108th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 33.58/29th/4th Big 12

Rushing: 211.3/9th/4th

Passing: 222.7/69th/10th

Total: 434/28th/7th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 25.75/62nd/6th

Rushing: 167.1/96th/7th

Passing: 210.5/41st/2nd

Total: 377.6/66th/4th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/6

Schedule: 

Aug 29 vs Lindenwood

Sep 7 @ Illinois

Sep 14 vs UNLV

Sep 21 @ West Virginia

Sep 28 vs TCU

Oct 5 @ Arizona State

Oct 19 vs Houston

Oct 26 @ Kansas State

Nov 9 vs Iowa State

Nov 16 @ BYU

Nov 23 vs Colorado

Nov 30 @ Baylor

Chances for a winning season: A major key for the Jayhawks is keeping QB Daniels healthy, because this year, there is no Jason Bean to fall back on. KU plays at Illinois (won by 11 at home last year) and hosts UNLV after their opening against an FCS team, so they could start the season 3-0 for a 3rd straight year. In the Big 12, they avoid Utah, Oklahoma State, and Arizona, and they get Iowa State at home. This is a team with a schedule made for 10+ wins.

Chances to make a bowl game: The Jayhawks have never been to a bowl 3 seasons in a row, so this an opportunity to do something historic. I think they make history.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: I actually like KU’s chances of making the Big 12 Championship Game, and if they do that, then winning it most likely gets them in. But they could make it in even as an at-large, assuming their loss(es) aren’t blowouts.

Notes: The Jayhawks have a sort of odd schedule format, where they alternate home and away games, never playing back-to-back on either the road or at home; Kansas had their 1st winning season since they were 8-5 in 2008, which was also the year of their last bowl before the 2022 season; KU is on a 2-game winning streak; 3 of their 4 losses were by 7 points or less; the Jayhawks have won 4 of their last 5 bowl games (dating to 2005); offense had 39 plays of 30+ yds (10th most FBS); RB Devin Neal (1,280 yds, 6.3 ypc, 16 TDs) returns and needs 765 to break the all-time rushing yardage record at KU (June Henley- 3,841 yds); Kansas is building a new stadium, so they will play their home games in Kansas City; QB Jalon Daniels (705 yds, 74.7%, 5 TDs, 1 INT) returns, but he has yet to play more than 6 games in any season; P Damon Greaves (39.0 avg, 38.0 net) returns; though HC Leipold is only 17-21 here (.447), KU had only 21 wins in the 11 years before he arrived (2010-2020/21-108/.151).

38- Iowa State Cyclones 7-6/6-3

Coach: Matt Campbell (9th year, 13th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 88-63/.583/56th

3-year record/rank: 18-20/.474/T83rd

6-year record/rank: 42-34/.553/55th

10-year record/rank: 58-67/.464/84th

Last League Title: 1912 Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Association co-champs/2004 Big 12 North co-champs

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 5-12/.294/121st

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1892/1-0-1 under HC Ira C. Brownlie (1st year as a team)

Last Winless Season: 1994/0-10-1

All-time Record/Rank: 566-678-46/.457/113th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 26.25/74th/10th Big 12

Rushing: 129.9/98th/11th

Passing: 228.3/62nd/9th

Total: 358.2/88th/13th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 21.67/36th/3rd

Rushing: 131.6/38th/2nd

Passing: 217.7/55th/3rd

Total: 349.3/41st/2nd

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 10/9

Schedule: 

Aug 31 vs North Dakota

Sep 7 @ Iowa

Sep 21 vs Arkansas State

Sep 28 @ Houston

Oct 5 vs Baylor

Oct 12 @ West Virginia

Oct 19 vs UCF

Nov 2 vs Texas Tech

Nov 9 @ Kansas

Nov 16 vs Cincinnati

Nov 23 @ Utah

Nov 30 vs Kansas State

Chances for a winning season: The Cyclones should get to a 2nd straight winning season, as I think they have a team that could compete for a Big 12 title. But is their schedule conducive to it? At worst, they should start 2-1 (play at Iowa in game #2), and in the Big 12, they avoid Oklahoma State and Arizona, but play Kansas, Utah, and Kansas State, all in the last 4 weeks, with the 1st 2 on the road. 

Chances to make a bowl game: Expect a bowl, especially if the offense improves and the defense remains its usual stout self.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Much will depend on how ISU handles the close games. Win them and they could be in the Big 12 CG, and therefore in play for a CFP berth. At 9-3 or 10-2, they would be on the edge of making it as an at-large; at 11-1, they would get strong consideration.

Notes: The Cyclones have been to 6 bowls in the last 7 years, but only 2 resulted in wins; offense was held to 21 points or less 6 times, but defense held opponents to 20 or less 7 times; offense had 13 plays of 50+ yds (6th FBS); QB Rocco Becht (3,120 yds, 62.9%, 23 TDs, 8 INTs, Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year) returns; defense had just 21 sacks; P Tyler Perkins (44.3 avg, 39.2 net) returns, but K will be new; ISU is 1-6 in games decided by 4 or fewer points the last 3 years, and just 5-12 in games decided by 7 or less in the same span.

37- Virginia Tech Hokies 7-6/5-3

Coach: Brent Pry (3rd year, 3rd overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 10-14/.417/93rd

3-year record/rank: 16-21/.432/T92nd

6-year record/rank: 35-39/.473/T79th

10-year record/rank: 68-59/.535/60th

Last League Title: 2010 ACC champions/2016 ACC Coastal champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 14-21/.400/98th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1954/8-0-1 under HC Frank Moseley

Last Winless Season: 1950/0-10

All-time Record/Rank: 773-504-46/.602/24th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 28.58/57th/7th ACC

Rushing: 175.4/46th/7th

Passing: 210.9/86th/9th

Total: 386.3/64th/7th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 24.25/54th/8th

Rushing: 149.3/63rd/8th

Passing: 172.9/10th/3rd

Total: 322.2/24th/4th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 11/10

Schedule: 

Aug 31 @ Vanderbilt

Sep 7 vs Marshall

Sep 14 @ ODU

Sep 21 vs Rutgers

Sep 27 @ Miami, FL

Oct 5 @ Stanford

Oct 17 vs Boston College

Oct 26 vs Georgia Tech

Nov 2 @ Syracuse

Nov 9 vs Clemson

Nov 23 @ Duke

Nov 30 vs Virginia

Chances for a winning season: In OOC games, the Hokies play at Vandy, Marshall, at ODU, and Rutgers (kudos for no FCS teams, I guess). They could sweep those and start the season 4-0 before they travel to Miami to open ACC play. While they also play Clemson at home, they avoid FSU, SMU, Louisville, and NC State. This is a schedule tailor-made for 8-10 wins.

Chances to make a bowl game: They should have at least 6 wins before November.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Va Tech can make the CFP if they win the ACC, but could make it in with a loss as an at-large team. With their schedule, I think 2 losses eliminates them, unless they’re by 1 point each, or something similar. I think they get 8 or 9 wins and are out of consideration for a spot.

Notes: The Hokies have won 3 of their last 4 games, including their bowl over Tulane; 3 of 6 losses were by 7 points each; Va Tech has been to 29 bowls in the last 31 years, including 27 consecutive seasons from 1993-2019; QB Kyron Drones (2,085 yds, 58%, 17 TDs, 3 INTs, 818 yds rushing, 4.9 ypc, 5 TDs) returns; K John Love (22-24 FGs, long of 47) and P Peter Moore (43.1 avg, 40.8 net) both return; defense had 39 sacks.

36- Kentucky Wildcats 7-6/3-5

Coach: Mark Stoops (12th year, 12th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 73-65/.529/73rd

3-year record/rank: 24-15/.615/T39th

6-year record/rank: 47-29/.618/31st

10-year record/rank: 71-55/.563/50th

Last League Title: 1976 SEC co-champs (due to a Miss St forfeit)/1950 SEC champions (in 1977, they were 6-0 in the SEC and 10-1 overall but ineligible for the title or a bowl due to NCAA probation)

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 8 years/2023/2021

Bowl Record/Rank: 12-11/.522/48th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1898/7-0 under HC W.R. Bass (when they were known as Kentucky State College)

Last Winless Season: 1982/0-10-1

All-time Record/Rank: 652-647-44/.502/90th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 28.58/57th/7th SEC

Rushing: 130.8/96th/12th

Passing: 203.8/94th/11th

Total: 334.6/100th/11th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 24.83/59th/8th

Rushing: 113.9/26th/3rd

Passing: 238.5/88th/11th

Total: 352.4/44th/7th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 8/10

Schedule: 

Aug 31 vs Southern Miss

Sep 7 vs South Carolina

Sep 14 vs Georgia

Sep 21 vs Ohio

Sep 28 @ Ole Miss

Oct 12 vs Vanderbilt

Oct 19 @ Florida

Oct 26 vs Auburn

Nov 2 @ Tennessee

Nov 16 vs Murray State

Nov 23 @ Texas

Nov 30 vs Louisville

Chances for a winning season: The Wildcats have a relatively easy OOC slate, as they play Southern Miss, Ohio, an FCS team, and rival Louisville, all at home. What’s interesting is that these games are scattered throughout the schedule- games 1, 4, 10 and 12. UK avoids LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Missouri, but must play UGA, at Ole Miss, at Florida, at Tennessee, and at Texas, If they can avoid any upsets, they should be able to get to 7 wins.

Chances to make a bowl game: With 8 straight bowl appearances, this is a minimum expectation now in Lexington. The Cats will make it 9 straight.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: If they get 10 or more wins with this SEC schedule, they’re a shoo-in. 9 wins would be iffy. I think they get 6-8 wins.

Notes: UK’s 1st 4 games (and 5 of their 1st 6) are all at home, as the Wildcats play 8 home games and only 4 road games (but they’re all doozies- Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas); HC Mark Stoops is now the longest tenured coach in the SEC (12 years), thanks to Nick Saban retiring; the Wildcats lost 3 of their last 4 games, including the bowl to Clemson; 3 of their 6 losses were by 7 points or less, but only 1 of their 7 wins was by less than 11 points; the Cats have lost 3 straight at home; QB is likely to be Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff (165 yds, 57%, 2 TDs, 0 INTs in 3 years at UGA); Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum (373 yds, 4.4 ypc, 3 TDs) will be the feature RB; Georgia transfer LB Jamon “Pop” Dumas-Johnson was a nice pickup in the portal; K Alex Raynor (10-11 FGs, long of 51) returns, but P will be new; WR Barion Brown has 4 career KORs for TDs, 3 last year; HC Stoops is the winningest coach in UK history; UK was last in offensive plays per game, so they are trying to increase the pace with a no-huddle offense under new OC Bush Hamdan.

35- Arizona Wildcats 10-3/7-2

Coach: Brent Brennan (1st year, 8th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 34-48/.415/96th

3-year record/rank: 16-21/.432/T92nd

6-year record/rank: 25-41/.379/106th

10-year record/rank: 52-66/.441/91st

Last League Title: 1993 Pac 10 co-champs/1936 Border Conference champions/2014 Pac 12 South champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 10-10-1/.500/56th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1910/5-0 under HC Frank Shipp

Last Winless Season: 2020/0-5

All-time Record/Rank: 633-499-33/.558/56th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 34.33/23rd/4th Pac 12

Rushing: 148.9/80th/6th

Passing: 304.5/12th/5th

Total: 453.4/18th/4th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 20.83/29th/4th

Rushing: 111.3/20th/5th

Passing: 229.6/73rd/4th

Total: 340.9/37th/5th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 8/7

Schedule: 

Aug 31 vs New Mexico

Sep 7 vs Northern Arizona

Sep 13 @ Kansas State

Sep 28 @ Utah

Oct 5 vs Texas Tech

Oct 12 @ BYU

Oct 19 vs Colorado

Oct 26 vs West Virginia

Nov 2 @ UCF

Nov 15 vs Houston

Nov 23 @ TCU

Nov 30 vs Arizona State

Chances for a winning season: The Wildcats play 10 conference teams, though only 9 count in the standings. That’s because the game against Kansas State will count as a non-conference game, and won’t affect the standings. The Cats should easily win the other 2 OOC games. In the Big 12, they avoid Oklahoma State and Iowa State (and of course KSU), but get all of the other top contenders, including Utah, UCF, and TCU on the road. This team is capable of getting to 8-10 wins, but only if the defense plays as well as it did last year.

Chances to make a bowl game: I would be surprised if UA slipped back to 5 wins or less, but it’s possible due to all the coaching and personnel changes.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: The Wildcats would probably need to win the Big 12 to have a chance at the CFP. As a sleeper pick, it’s possible, but I think they get 7-9 wins.

Notes: The Wildcats are on a 7-game winning streak, including the bowl win over Oklahoma; 3 of their 10 wins were by 3 points or less, and all 3 of their losses were by 7 or less (2 by 3 points each); bowl appearance last year broke a bowl drought of 5 years; from 2008-2017, UA went to 8 bowls in 10 years (4 wins); QB Noah Fifita (2,869 yds, 72.4%, 25 TDs, 6 INTs, Pac 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year) returns, as does WR Tetairoa McMillan (90 rec, 1,402 yds, 10 TDs); K Tyler Loop (19-24 FGs, long of 52) returns, but P will be new; the Cats defeated 5 teams who were ranked at the start of the game; game at Kansas State counts as a non-conference game; UA is joining the Big 12, and will be playing their 1st year in the new conference.

34- Memphis Tigers 10-3/6-2

Coach: Ryan Silverfield (5th year, 5th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 31-19/.620/36th

3-year record/rank: 23-15/.605/T42nd

6-year record/rank: 51-26/.662/23rd

10-year record/rank: 88-41/.682/18th

Last League Title: 2019 AAC champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 2 years/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 7-8/.467/75th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1963/9-0-1 under HC Billy Murphy

Last Winless Season: 1936/0-9

All-time Record/Rank: 533-536-33/.499/92nd

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 39.67/7th/2nd AAC

Rushing: 150.8/75th/9th

Passing: 301.4/13th/2nd

Total: 452.3/19th/4th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 29/93rd/9th

Rushing: 168.2/98th/11th

Passing: 253.2/114th/12th

Total: 421.3/113th/9th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 10/7

Schedule: 

Aug 31 vs North Alabama

Sep 7 vs Troy

Sep 14 @ FSU

Sep 21 @ Navy

Sep 28 vs Middle Tennessee

Oct 11 @ USF

Oct 19 vs North Texas

Oct 26 vs Charlotte

Nov 2 @ UTSA

Nov 8 vs Rice

Nov 16 vs UAB

Nov 28 @ Tulane

Chances for a winning season: The Tigers have a tough schedule, but they should at least go 3-1 in OOC games (play at FSU in game 3). They also have Navy, USF, UTSA, and Tulane on the road, but have 7 home games overall. If QB Henigan stays healthy, they should do well, but if he is injured, there is no one with any playing experience behind him. 8 wins is their floor, 11 their ceiling.

Chances to make a bowl game: They should have an 11th straight season of bowl eligibility, as they are one of only 8 teams that have been bowl eligible for 10 straight years or longer.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Really good, if they can win the AAC. But they won’t last long in the CFP if they don’t improve on defense.

Notes: The Tigers won 6 of their last 7 games, including the bowl over Iowa State; 2 of their 3 losses were by 7 points or less (lost by 10 to Tulane); Memphis has a 5-game road winning streak (5-0 for the ‘23 season), but that probably ends when they play their 1st road game at FSU; 3 of 10 wins were by 4 points or less; the Tigers have been to 9 bowls in the last 10 years (bowl game in ‘21 canceled), winning 4; Memphis is 3 wins from reaching a .500 all-time record, which they could achieve game 5 at MTSU; offense scored 34+ points 10 times (high of 59), but defense allowed 31+ points 7 times (high of 50); OL allowed only 19 sacks; QB Seth Henigan (3,883 yds, 67%, 32 TDs, 9 INTs) returns, as does WR Roc Taylor (69 rec, 1,083 yds); K Tanner Gillis (10-13 FGs, long of 49, 47-49 PATs) returns, but P will be new; offense scored on 55 of 63 red zone trips (87.3%); defense allowed 80 plays of 20+ yds, and 38 plays of 30+ yds; offense has scored 20+ points in 27 straight games, the longest in FBS (lost 13-31 to Houston near end of ‘21 season), and in 41 of their last 43 games.

33- UCF Knights 6-7/3-6

Coach: Gus Malzahn (4th year, 13th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 101-54/.652/26th

3-year record/rank: 24-16/.600/T44th

6-year record/rank: 52-24/.684/18th

10-year record/rank: 80-47/.630/T26th

Last League Title: 2018 AAC champion

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 8 years/2023/2021

Bowl Record/Rank: 6-9/.400/98th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 2017/13-0 under HC Scott Frost

Last Winless Season: 2015/0-12

All-time Record/Rank: 295-233-1/.559/54th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 32.5/33rd/5th Big 12

Rushing: 233.2/4th/2nd

Passing: 259.1/46th/6th

Total: 492.3/7th/2nd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 25.42/61st/5th

Rushing: 186.8/121st/14th

Passing: 205.8/36th/1st

Total: 392.7/85th/7th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/8

Schedule: 

Aug 29 vs New Hampshire

Sep 7 vs Sam Houston

Sep 14 @ TCU

Sep 28 vs Colorado

Oct 5 @ Florida

Oct 12 vs Cincinnati

Oct 19 @ Iowa State

Oct 26 vs BYU

Nov 2 vs Arizona

Nov 9 @ Arizona State

Nov 23 @ West Virginia

Nov 29 vs Utah

Chances for a winning season: This year, we find out how the Knights would have done in the now-almost-defunct Pac 12, as they play all 4 former members joining the Big 12! Seriously, in their 2nd year in the Big 12, they have a cupcake OOC slate, with the exception of playing at Florida in early October. In the conference, they have 5 home games this year (7 overall at home), but must play Utah, at Iowa State, Arizona, and at WVU, but avoid Kansas State and Oklahoma State. I foresee a return to a winning season.

Chances to make a bowl game: They will make it 9 years in a row. 

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: This is a team that could challenge for a berth in the Big 12 CG, and if they do that, they probably have 9-12 wins. If they’re on the upper end of that- 11 or 12 wins- thy’ll have a shot at making the CFP. The lower end- 9 or 10 wins- will depend on how other conference races and at-large teams do. I don’t think they make it.

Notes: The Knights will play all 4 former Pac 12 members in those teams’ 1st year in the Big 12; UCF won 3 of their last 4 regular season games, but lost their bowl 17-30 to Georgia Tech, a team they had beaten 27-10 in 2022; offense scored 31+ points in 5 games (high of 56), but their defense also allowed 31+ points 5 times; the Knights have been to a bowl 8 consecutive years (3 wins), and 15 of the last 19 years; QB is likely to be Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson (2,107 yds, 64%, 19 TDs, 8 INTs, 447 rushing yds, 2.8 ypc); RB RJ Harvey (1,416 yds- 3rd best in UCF history, 6.3 ypc, 19 rec, 238 yds, 2nd team All-Big 12) returns; both K Colton Boomer (13-21 FGs, long of 55, 2 kicks blocked, great name for a kicker!) and P Mitch McCarthy (41.3 avg, 35.9 net) return; UCF was the only Big 12 newcomer last year to reach a bowl.

32- West Virginia Mountaineers 9-4/6-3

Coach: Neal Brown (6th year, 10th overall FBS)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 66-45/.595/50th

3-year record/rank: 20-18/.526/T69th

6-year record/rank: 39-33/.542/T59th

10-year record/rank: 71-53/.573/48th

Last League Title: 2011 Big East co-champs/2005 Big East champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 17-23/.425/93rd

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1922/10-0-1 under HC Clarence Spears

Last Winless Season: 1960/0-8-2

All-time Record/Rank: 783-524-45/.596/29th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 31.58/39th/6th Big 12

Rushing: 234.3/3rd/1st

Passing: 203.8/94th/14th

Total: 438.2/27th/6th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 27.5/78th/8th

Rushing: 144.3/49th/4th

Passing: 239.0/94th/8th

Total: 384.3/73rd/5th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 8/5

Schedule: 

Aug 31 vs Penn State

Sep 7 vs UAlbany

Sep 14 @ Pittsburgh

Sep 21 vs Kansas

Oct 5 @ Oklahoma State

Oct 12 vs Iowa State

Oct 19 vs Kansas State

Oct 26 @ Arizona

Nov 9 @ Cincinnati

Nov 16 vs Baylor

Nov 23 vs UCF

Nov 30 @ Texas Tech

Chances for a winning season: For the 2nd year in a row, WVU opens with Penn State, but this time at home, and they again play Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, but this time in Pittsburgh. If they can go 2-1 in the OOC portion of their schedule again, then they should be set up to get 7+ wins. In the Big 12, they avoid Utah, but play Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, and at Arizona. What’s more, those 5 are all played consecutively (off week before OSU). If they can make it through that stretch 3-2 or 4-1, then they could challenge for a spot in the Big 12 CG. 

Chances to make a bowl game: Pretty high, especially if they improve a bit in the passing game.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: It’s a long shot, but if they get to 10 wins, then they have an outside shot at an at-large spot.

Notes: The Mountaineers are on a 3-game winning streak, including the bowl win over UNC, and have won 5 of their last 6 home games; offense scored 30+ points 8 times (high of 56), but were held to 20 or less 4 times; defense held 7 opponents to 21 points or less, but gave up 59 to Oklahoma; WVU has been to 19 bowl games in the last 22 years, winning just 8; QB Garret Greene (2,406 yds, 53.1%, 16 TDs, 4 INTs, 772 yds rushing, 6.4 ypc, 13 TDs) returns; K Michael Hayes (17-21 FGs, long of 49) and P Oliver Straw (43 avg, 40.8 net) both return; special teams allowed 3 TDs on KORs; defense had 33 sacks, most in the Big 12.

31- Appalachian State Mountaineers 9-5/6-2

Coach: Shawn Clark (5th year, 5th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 35-18/.660/23rd

3-year record/rank: 25-15/.625/T34th

6-year record/rank: 58-21/734/10th

10-year record/rank: 95-30/.760/6th

Last League Title: 2019 Sun Belt champions/2023 SBC East champions (due to JMU being ineligible)

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year/2023/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 7-1/.875/4th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 0

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 1928- best seasons were 14-1 in 2006 under HC Jerry Moore and 13-1 in 2019 under HC Eliah Drinkwitz)

Last Winless Season: Never (worst seasons were 2-9 in 1977 and 1-6 in 1945)

All-time Record/Rank: 663-357-28/.646/16th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 34.77/21st/3rd SBC

Rushing: 171.6/50th/3rd

Passing: 278.4/24th/4th

Total: 450/20th/2nd

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 28.38/90th/8th

Rushing: 178.1/114th/12th

Passing: 212.3/45th/4th

Total: 390.4/82nd/8th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 5/6

Schedule: 

Aug 31 vs East Tennessee State

Sep 7 @ Clemson

Sep 14 @ East Carolina

Sep 19 vs South Alabama

Sep 28 vs Liberty

Oct 5 @ Marshall

Oct 12 @ Louisiana

Oct 26 vs Georgia State

Nov 2 vs ODU

Nov 7 @ Coastal Carolina

Nov 23 vs James Madison

Nov 30 @ Georgia Southern

Chances for a winning season: App State has had only 3 losing seasons since 1983, so I feel pretty confident predicting another one! However, they play at Clemson and ECU and host Liberty, and their crossover games are South Alabama and at Louisiana, so they don’t have an easy schedule, but I believe they are up to the task. 

Chances to make a bowl game: I would be very surprised if they don’t get to 6 wins.

Chances to make the 12-team playoff: If they can have a season like 2019, when they were 13-1 with wins over UNC and South Carolina, then they have a good shot, even as an at-large. However, I’m fairly certain they will stumble a time or 2, perhaps against rival Georgia Southern, who always seems to spoil their best years.

Notes: The Mountaineers have won 5 straight regular season games, and 6 of their last 7 (won bowl over Miami, Oh); ASU has won 9 of their last 10 home games; 4 of their 5 losses were by 7 points or less, and 3 of their 9 wins were by 4 points or less (combined 8 points); ASU has been to a bowl 8 of the last 9 years (missed in 2022 despite a 6-6 record because of 2 wins vs FCS teams); offense scored 31+ points in 8 games while defense held 6 opponents to 24 points or less; offense lost 30 fumbles; QB Joey Aguilar (school record 3,757 yds, 63.8%, school record 33 TDs, 10 INTs, 245 yds rushing, 3.0 ypc, 2nd team All-SBC, SBC Newcomer of the Year) returns; K Michael Hughes (19-22 FGs, long of 54) and P Mitchell Lake (39 avg, 37.5 net) both return; ASU has averaged 9.5 wins since rejoining the FBS in 2014; defense had 15 INTs, best in the SBC; defense allowed 5 ypc rushing.

Please come back again as I continue the countdown!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!