Odds and Ends 8/21/24
Welcome Back!
On Wednesdays I have my Odds and Ends. This is where I present interesting statistics that you can't easily find elsewhere. These include:
Interconference results- which conference has the best OOC record.
Intraconference results- how do the divisions fare against each other within each conference (I'm a little sad that only the Sun Belt has divisions).
Undefeated/Winless teams- Starting week 2, I keep a running list of undefeated and winless teams throughout the season, updated each week.
Bowl eligible/eliminated- Starting midseason, I keep a running list of teams as they reach bowl eligibility (6+ wins) or are eliminated from bowl eligibility (7+ losses).
Updates on my playoff picks- After I reveal my picks today (see below!), I will update them each week.
Since the season hasn't started yet, I will use today's Odds and Ends to present my list of Coaches On The Hot Seat, a Comparison of OOC Schedules, and my picks to make the CFB Playoff.
Coaches on the Hot Seat
These coaches need to show some definite improvement this year, or they may not be around next year, at least not in the same location. This improvement may mean winning the conference, getting to a bowl game, or even just winning a conference game or beating their rival, but progress needs to be shown. These are just simply my opinion. And no, I don't have any inside information; I'm not that connected.
Billy Napier, Florida (11-14 overall record, one bowl game, a 30-3 loss- how patient will UF be?)
Shane Beamer, South Carolina (5-7 last year after 8-5 in '22)
Sam Pittman, Arkansas (wins have gone from 9-7-4 over the last 3 years)
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt (9 wins in 3 years, and a backslide to 2 wins after 5 in '22)
James Franklin, Penn State (not hot yeet, but would PSU consider it a failure not to make the CFP?)
Lincoln Riley, USC (what happens if they win 7 or fewer games?)
Justin Wilcox, Cal (4 straight losing seasons)
Tony Elliott, Virginia (6-16 in 2 years, needs to win more than 3 games)
Dave Aranda, Baylor (2 to 12 to 6 to 3 wins- after initial surge, now going backwards)
Mike Bloomgren, Rice (incremental progress, but when is the breakthrough to a winning season?)
Stan Drayton, Temple (3-9 each of 1st 2 years, needs to win more than 3 games)
Jake Dickert, Washington State (needs to bounce back from a losing season)
Clay Helton, Georgia Southern (a winning season is a must)
Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana (2 straight years of 6-7 is not up to standard)
Will Hall, Southern Miss (drop back to 3 wins shows '22 season may have been a fluke, 13-24 overall)
Jim McElwain, Central Michigan (2 straight losing seasons not acceptable at CMU)
Mike Neu, Ball State (just 1 winning season in 8 years)
Joe Moorhead, Akron (4-20 in 2 years, needs to win more than 2 games a year)
Mike MacIntyre, FIU (needs a breakthrough season with more than 4 wins)
Sonny Cumbie, La Tech (6-18 in 2 years, time for some improvement)
Comparison of P5 OOC Schedules
People love to make fun of the SEC's schedules, saying they never play anyone, and never go anywhere outside of their "footprint", so I started out comparing their non-conference schedule with the Big Ten 2 years ago. But then I thought, "Why not compare all of the P4 conferences?" So that is what I did! For these purposes, all Independents except for Notre Dame are counted as G5 teams, as are Washington State and Oregon State. Also, there are 2 games between B12 opponents that are not counted in the conference standings, so they are considered OOC games. Here is a chart that compares the P4 conferences:
Paul's Playoff Picks
The CFP is expanding to 12 teams this year, which makes picking the 12-team field both easier and harder. Picking teams certain to get in, like Ohio State or Georgia, is the easiest it's ever been- 1 or 2 losses may not eliminate them. But picking teams to be the 5th-12 seeds? Good grief! There are so many variables that could come into play- strength of schedule, tiebreakers for conference championship games, how the committee treats CG losers, etc.- that even the great Phil Steele doesn't even attempt to pick the field. Since I'm not selling magazines (or website subscriptions), it doesn't really matter if I'm right or wrong, so let's give this the ol' college try.
As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:
5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).
So the 1st task is picking who will be conference champions and get the automatic berth, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a 5th conference champion. And don't forget about Notre Dame! And just to be clear, I believe every team will end the season with a loss for the 1st time since 2021. So here's what I think.
In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Georgia is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 10 wins, based on their schedule. UGA has a difficult schedule, as does Alabama, but LSU, Texas, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee have relatively easy schedules. Remember, relatively easy doesn't mean a bunch of cupcakes; it just means easier than some others. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. Oklahoma could be a dark horse.
The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (remember, I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and Rutgers, again mostly based on the ease or difficulty of their schedules. Maryland and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Wisconsin or some other team, but that could be difficult based on their schedules.
In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Clemson, FSU. Miami, SMU, Va Tech, Louisville, NC State, and UNC getting to 9+ wins, with Georgia Tech being the lone dark horse.
In the Big 12, I could see Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Arizona, West Virginia, and/or Kansas getting to as many as 9 wins, with UCF being a dark horse.
In the G5, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.
Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:
Georgia
Ohio State
FSU
Utah
Notre Dame
Boise State
Clemson
Texas
Oregon
Iowa
Missouri
LSU
Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:
Alabama
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Penn State
Michigan
USC
Rutgers
Miami, Fl
SMU
Va Tech
Louisville
NC State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Arizona
West Virginia
Kansas
UTSA
Tulane
Memphis
East Carolina
Air Force
Appalachian State
Texas State
Toledo
Northern Illinois
Liberty
This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.
I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.
Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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