Paul's Picks Week Zero
Welcome Back!
College Football is back! The first games are in 2 days, and it's a rather sparse weekend, hence the "Week Zero" moniker. Last year, I finished at 75.2%, which was my best in several years (74.1% after the bowls). Over the last 7 years, I am a combined 4,322-1,581, which comes out to 73.2%. 2022 was my worst year over this period (70.3%), while 2019 was my best year, at 76.2%. In both 2017 and 2018, I was at 73%, and 2021 was 73.6%, while the pandemic year of 2020 saw me at what had been my previous low of 71.8%.
You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for over 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
In this space each week, I will update you on my picking percentage, and whether it went up or down from the previous week. My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 73%, but I think my high has been just over 76%. Last year, I was 75.2% during the regular season, which was my 2nd best year.
I will also give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
Now... on with the first picks of the 2024 season!
Saturday, August 24
FSU vs Georgia Tech (Dublin, Ireland)- The season starts off with an afternoon game from "across the pond". The Seminoles lead the series 15-11, which includes wins in the 2012 and 2014 ACC Championship Games. However, the Yellow Jackets have won 2 of the last 3 matchups, and 4 of the last 5 played in the regular season, but FSU won the most recent meeting 41-16 in 2022. The Noles have won their last 2 openers, , and their last 2 conference openers; the Jackets have lost their last 3 opening games, including their last 3 conference openers. Despite that, GT HC Brent Key is very bullish on his team, and while I expect FSU to be excellent again, there may be some growing pains before they realize their full potential. First upset special of the year: GT in an upset!
Montana State @ New Mexico- The Lobos are 0-1-1 against the Bobcats, but have won 2 of their last 3 openers. MSU is 32-9 over the last 3 seasons (8-4 last year), and have made the FCS playoffs each of those years, including the 2021 title game. This will not be your usual FBS vs FCS game, but the Bronco Mendenhall era gets off to good start. UNM wins a close one.
SMU @ Nevada- This series is tied at 3 wins apiece, with the Mustangs winning the 1st meeting in 2000 and the last 2 in 2004 and in the 2009 Hawaii Bowl. The Wolf Pack is 2-0 in games played in Reno, but are on a 4-game losing streak, and have lost their last 6 non-conference games. SMU is on a 9-game regular season winning streak, and this win will make it 10 in a row, and get the Mustangs their 1st win in Nevada. SMU wins.
Delaware State @ Hawaii- This will be the 1st ever meeting between the Rainbow Warriors and the Hornets. Hawaii won 2 of their last 3, and they should have no problems with DSU, who was 1-10 last year. Hawaii wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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