Paul's Picks Week 5
Welcome Back!
I had a mediocre week, going 43-21, a winning percentage of 67.2% (barely over 2/3). There are 56 games in total this week, the fewest since Week Zero, so I'm sure my percentage will come down again, especially since every miss will count more.
Overall, I am 245-60, a percentage of 80.3%, and a decrease of 3.5% from last week. There is absolutely no way I can maintain that, but I am still keeping my "pie-in-the-sky" goal at 80%, and my "realistic" goal at 75%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 26
Army @ Temple- The Owls lead the series 7-6, but the Black Knights have won the last 2 (2016-17), and are 2-3 in games played in Philadelphia. They 1st played in 1943 (Army won 51-0), with the other 12 games between 1987 and 2017, and only 3 of the meetings were decided by less than 10 points. Army is already 2-0 in the AAC, and 3-0 overall, while Temple is 0-1 and 1-3. Black Knights win.
Friday, September 27
Virginia Tech @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes lead the series 25-15, winning the 1st 12 meetings (between 1953 and 1994, including the 1966 Liberty Bowl and the 1981 Peach Bowl, and the Canes have won 7 of the last 9 (from 2014-22), including the last 3, but in between, the Hokies won 13 of 19 from 1995-2013. This is the ACC opener for both teams, but Miami is 4-0 against VT's 2-2. Miami wins.
Washington @ Rutgers- The Huskies lead the series 2-0, winning in 2016 and 2017. The Scarlet Knights are undefeated in 2024 at 3-0, but have yet to play a conference game; UW is 3-1, but 1-0 in the Big Ten. The Huskies have been just OK on offense, but have held 3 of 4 opponents to 9 points or less, and WSU scored only 24 (their only loss). Rutgers has scored in the 40s twice, but were held to only 26 last week by Va Tech. However, the Knights have allowed only 47 points in those 3 games. Rutgers wins a close one at home.
Saturday, September 28
Kentucky @ Ole Miss- The Rebels lead the series 29-14-1, winning the last 3 (since 2017), and 10 of the last 13 (since 1990). Even though the Rebs and Wildcats have shared a conference since 1922 (when Ole Miss joined the Southern Conference a year after UK did), they didn't play each other until 1944, whereupon they proceeded to play each other every year through 1971. Starting in 1978, they became sporadic opponents. The Wildcats have looked really good at times (vs Southern Miss, Ohio and in a close loss to UGA), but really laid an egg at home against SC. Ole Miss is 4-0, but the only P5 team they have played is Wake Forest, who they beat by 34 points. Rebels win at home.
Minnesota @ Michigan- The Wolverines have dominated this series, begun in 1892, to the tune of 77-25-3, and have won the last 4 (since 2015), and have won 39 of the last 43 (since 1968), but each of the last 3 wins by the Golden Gophers (1986, 2005, and 2014) took place in Ann Arbor. Michigan needs to find some answers on offense, and playing Minnesota could help, as the Gophers allowed 31 points to Iowa (to Iowa!). Wolverines win.
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State- Both of these teams lost in their conference opener last week, and neither game was particularly close (late scores by OSU made the game appear closer), so both will be looking to bounce back. The Cowboys lead the series 43-27 in a series that began in 1908. The Wildcats have had 2 good runs in this series: from 1908-1936 (6-1), and from 1990 to 2002 (won 9 straight), but OSU has won 4 of the last 5 (since 2019). However, KSU has won 10 of the last 13 played in Manhattan. Wildcats win.
BYU @ Baylor- This series is tied at 2-2, with the Bears winning both games played in Waco (1983 & 2021) and the Cougars winning both games played in Provo (1984 & 2022). Three of the 4 matchups have been decided by 12 points or less. Baylor is 2-2 with losses to Utah and Colorado, but their defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less, and 2 of them to just 3 points each, while the offense has scored 31+ 3 times. BYU is one of the early surprise teams, and many are wondering if they can sustain this early success, but they've held all 4 foes to 15 points or less, and have scored at least 34+ in 3 out of 4 games. Cougars win.
Maryland @ Indiana- The Hoosiers lead the series 7-5, but it's 5-5 since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2014, with IU owning wins in 1934 and 1935. The Terps have won the last 3, and are 2-3 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers are 4-0, and have scored 31+ in all 4 games (42+ in 3), while holding opponents to 14 points or less, a stunning turnaround from last year. Maryland lost their Big Ten opener to Michigan State, but has otherwise played well. This should be a good game! Indiana wins a close one.
Nebraska @ Purdue- This series is tied at 6 wins apiece, but the Cornhuskers own a 6-5 advantage since joining the Big Ten in 2011. However, the Boilermakers have won 2 of the last 3, and 4 of the last 6, and are 4-3 in West Lafayette (PU also has a win in 1958). Purdue is quite possibly the worst team in the conference this year, but Nebraska has a way of blowing close games. Huskers win by racing out to a big lead and holding on.
Buffalo @ UConn- The Huskies lead the series 16-5, including a win in the 2009 International Bowl, but the Bulls won the most recent meeting, in 2013. UConn has played well after being routed by Maryland in their opener, but they'll be taking on a team that just upset NIU. Three of Buffalo's 5 wins in the series have come in Storrs, but they won't get the win this time. Huskies win.
WKU @ Boston College- The Eagles and Hilltoppers have never met on the gridiron. WKU is 3-1, with their only loss at Alabama, and a win last week over previously unbeaten Toledo. BC is also 3-1, with a 6-point loss at Missouri. Eagles win.
Northern Illinois @ NC State- The Wolfpack defeated the Huskies in their only previous meeting, in 1997. NIU upset Notre Dame a few weeks ago, but got upset in return by Buffalo last week. NC State has struggled against other P5 teams, but they won't against NIU. Wolfpack wins.
Holy Cross @ Syracuse- The Orange lead the series over the Crusaders 24-5, winning the last 13 (from 1959-2019 (which was their 1st meeting since 1973). They 1st played in 1905. Syracuse wins.
Navy @ UAB- The Midshipmen defeated the Blazers 31-6 last year in Annapolis, which is their only prior meeting. UAB had an off week last week, so they've had extra time to prepare for Navy's offense. It won't help. Navy wins to stay undefeated.
USF @ Tulane- The Green Wave lead the series 3-1 over the Bulls as they've won the last 3. USF is 2-2, but their losses were both "closer than the score indicates" affairs against Alabama and Miami. Tulane is also 2-2, with relatively close losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma, the latter on the road. This should be a close, competitive game, but the Green Wave is just a little better. Tulane wins.
Ball State @ James Madison- Way back in 1997, the Cardinals defeated the Dukes in Muncie. JMU will return the favor in Harrisburg. Dukes win.
Texas State @ Sam Houston- The Bobcats lead the series 50-37-5, winning the last 2, but those took place in 2010 and 2011. TSU is 2-1, with a rout of UTSA and a close loss to Arizona State, and they were off last week. The Bearkats are much better than they were last year, and since they started the season 3-1, have won 6 of their last 8 games (losses at WKU last year and at UCF this year). I expect a high scoring affair, but the Bobcats will win.
Wisconsin @ USC- The Trojans lead the series 6-1, with wins in the 1953 (1st meeting) and 1963 Rose Bowls, but the Badgers won the most recent matchup in the 2015 Holiday Bowl. Wisconsin has scored more than 6 points in only 3 of the 7 contests. Both teams are 2-1, with the Badgers losing to Alabama by 32 and USC losing to Michigan by 3 last week. UW is coming out of an off week, and so should be prepared, but they haven't exactly dazzled on offense. USC wins at home.
Louisville @ Notre Dame- This series is tied 2-2, with each team 1-1 at home and on the road. The Cardinals won the 1st and last matchups, including 33-20 last year, with the Fighting Irish winning the 2 in the middle (all games played since 2014). UL has certainly looked the part of an ACC title contender early in the season, and will be looking to push the Irish out of CFP consideration. ND has bounced back in a big way from their loss to NIU, and desperately need to win every remaining game to have any chance for inclusion (relatively weak SOS). This could be one of the better games of the day. Irish win at home.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M (Arlington)- The Razorbacks lead the series 42-35-3, but the Aggies have won 11 of the last 12, and are 8-4 against the Piggies in games played in Arlington. These teams played 3 times between 1903 and 1912, then almost every year as conference mates from 1927-1991, and again from 2009 to the present, though they both joined the old Southwest Conference in 1915. Both teams are kind of an enigma right now, as they have played well at times, and not very good at others. This is my upset special. Hogs win.
UMass @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks lead the series 4-1, winning 3 in a row, including a 41-28 win last year, with the Minutemen winning the 2nd meeting in 2013. UMass got their 1st win last week, but it was by only 4 points against an FCS foe. Miami is winless, but all 3 losses have been against P5 competition, and 2 were by less than 2 TDs. Redhawks win and get their 1st victory of the '24 season.
Louisiana @ Wake Forest- The Ragin' Cajuns and the Demon Deacons will be meeting for the 1st time ever in football. UL dominated in their 1st 2 games before losing by 8 to Tulane. WF's only win is over an FCS team, but they have a 1-point loss to UVA and a 34-point loss to Ole Miss, and they were off last week. The Deacons win, but it won't be easy.
TCU @ Kansas- This is a big game between 2 very disappointing teams. The Horned Frogs lead the series, which began in 1942, by a count of 26-9-4, and have won the last 4, and 10 of the last 11 (since TCU joined the Big XII in 2012). The teams played every year from 1944-1964, and then 6 times between 1982 and 1997 before this current run as conference mates. The Frogs are 2-2 with losses each of the last 2 weeks, by 1 point to UCF and by 24 to rival SMU. The Jayhawks are 1-3 with no FBS wins, but their 3 losses are by a combined 13 points. KU wins at home.
Colorado @ UCF- This is yet another 1st time meeting as until now, there was really no reason for the Buffaloes and Knights to ever play each other. The Buffs are 3-1 and coming off an incredible comeback win over Baylor, but UCF is undefeated and had an off week last week. Expect a close game, but the Knights win at home in the Bounce House.
Liberty @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers lead the series 7-3, winning 5 of the last 6, but the Flames won the most recent meeting. All the games were played between 1987 and 2014, with App State 5-3 in Boone. Before the season started, I would have picked the Mountaineers in a heartbeat to win this game, but the way they lost to South Alabama last week gives me pause. However, I think they get the win and hand LU their 1st loss of the season. ASU wins.
Fresno State @ UNLV- The Bulldogs lead the series 20-6, winning the last 6, and the last 3 played in Las Vegas. The Rebels are 3-0 with wins over Houston and Kansas, both on the road, and they were off last week. Everything points their way, right? Except their starting QB, Matthew Sluka, has reportedly decided to redshirt and transfer for next year, meaning the Rebs will be playing a backup for the rest of the year. The good news is that both backups, Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell) and Cameron Friel (UNLV) have starting experience. FS is 3-1, with their only loss to Michigan, but their FBS wins were against the 2 teams from New Mexico, which would hardly classify as stiff competition. UNLV may get off to a slow start, but they'll get the win in the end.
San Diego State @ Central Michigan- The Aztecs destroyed the Chippewas in the 2019 New Mexico Bowl by a score of 48-11, the only other time these teams have met. SDSU is only 1-2, but they've lost to Oregon State and Cal. CMU is 2-2 with losses to a bad FIU team and to a good Illinois team (actually played closer to the Fighting Illini than to the Panthers). Aztecs win big.
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State- The Panthers lead the series 6-4, but the Eagles won 44-27 last year, and are 2-3 in games played in Atlanta. Ga State is a surprising 2-1, with a loss to Ga Tech and an upset of Vandy, and they were off last week. Ga Southern is 2-2, with losses to Boise State and Ole Miss, and a win over Nevada. The Panthers aren't expected to be very good this year, but they'll get the win and claim back bragging rights in this rivalry.
Western Michigan @ Marshall- The Broncos lead the series 22-12, but the Thundering Herd has won 5 of the last 6, including 2 wins in the MAC Championship Game (Marshall used to be in the MAC). However, all of the contests took place between 1954 and 2004, so it's been 20 years since they last played. Marshall is only 1-2, but the losses were to Va Tech and Ohio State. WMU is is also 1-2, with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State. All 4 of these losses were on the road. W Mich lost to Ohio State by a score of 56-0; Marshall lost to the Buckeyes 49-14. Go with the Herd as the home team. Marshall wins.
Akron @ Ohio- The Bobcats lead this series 26-13-1, and they've won the last 6, and 15 of the last 16 (since 2008). The teams have played every year since 1992 (when Akron joined the MAC), and played 8 times between 1912 and 1951. The Zips have lost to 2 teams from the Big Ten and one from the SEC, so we really don't know how they will do in the MAC. Ohio has a win over South Alabama (who just routed App State), and losses to an ACC team and an SEC team. Based on recent history, I have to go with the Bobcats to top the Zips.
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State- The Golden Flashes lead the series 19-16, as they've played almost every year since 1973, but the Eagles have won the last 2, 3 of the last 5 (since 2018), and 2 of the last 3 played in Kent. EMU is 3-1, with a win over Jax State in OT and a 21-point loss at Washington. KSU is 0-4, including a loss to an FCS school, and were shut out each of the last 2 weeks against Tennessee and Penn State, but they did score 24 points against a very good Pitt team in their opener. The Flashes will score, but the Eagles will soar. E Mich wins.
Oklahoma @ Auburn- The Sooners own both victories in this series with wins in the 1972 and 2017 Sugar Bowls, and neither was particularly close. Both teams are currently experiencing QB dilemmas, but I like OU's defense much better than the one the Tigers are trotting out, especially considering the level of competition each has faced. One oddity is that the Sooners have allowed each opponent to score more than the previous opponent: allowed 3 pts the 1st game, 12 the next, then 19, then 25. That trend will end, as the War Eagles have yet to score more than 14 against P5 competition. OU wins.
North Carolina @ Duke- The Tar Heels lead the series 64-41-4, winning the last 5, but the last 2 were won by a combined 5 points. UNC was embarrassed by JMU last week, so they'll be looking to redeem themselves, especially on defense, but the Blue Devils don't care; they'll be trying to extend their current winning streak to 7 games. Though they are a combined 7-4, neither team has looked particularly impressive. This series began in 1888, and after playing 7 times through 1894, it went on hiatus until 1922, after which they have played continuously up to now, even playing twice in 1943! This is one of those coin flip games. Duke wins.
UTSA @ East Carolina- The Roadrunners lead this long and storied rivalry, winning 41-27 last year at home to win their only meeting. This year, UTSA is off to a rough start, being routed by Texas and Texas State, and getting by FBS newcomer Kennesaw State by only 12 points. The Pirates started 2-0, but have lost to App State and Liberty the last 2 weeks, both in relatively close fashion. I still believe in both teams. Meep! Meep! Roadrunners win.
Mississippi State @ Texas- Surprisingly, this series is tied at 2 wins each, with the Longhorns winning in 1921 in Austin and in the 1999 Cotton Bowl. The Bulldogs won in 1991 and 1992, once in Starkville, once in Austin. MSU has been the worst team in the SEC so far, losing to Arizona State and Florida, and getting pummeled by Toledo. Texas is ranked #1. Horns win.
ODU @ Bowling Green- The Monarchs and Falcons are meeting on the field of play for the 1st time. BGSU is only 1-2, but their losses are to Penn State and Texas A&M by a combined 13 points, both on the road. ODU is 0-3, and they have losses to South Carolina and East Carolina by a combined 10 points, but then were pounded by Va Tech by 20. However, the Monarchs were off last week. This should be a close, hard fought contest, but the Falcons will come out on top at home.
La Tech @ FIU- The Bulldogs lead the series 5-1, with the Panthers winning the last time they played in Miami. La Tech is 1-2, losing to NC State and Tulsa by a combined 13 points. FIU is 1-3, with a big win over C Mich, and big losses to Indiana and FAU, and a 3-point loss to FCS Monmouth last week. I have no idea who should win this game, but I'm going with the Bulldogs.
UT Martin @ Kennesaw State- The Owls won the only prior meeting with the Skyhawks in 2022. KSU has actually been competitive in the 1st halves of all 3 games, but their offense can't seem to maintain momentum into the 2nd half, while the defense gets worn out. The Owls were off last week, and should earn their 1st win at the FBS level, even though it will be against an FCS team. Hooty Hoo! Owls win.
Wagner @ FAU- The Owls are 2-0 against the Seahawks, winning in 2012 and 2019. Owls win again.
Ohio State @ Michigan State- The Buckeyes lead this series 37-15, winning the last 8, but the Spartans won the only time they faced off in the Big Ten Championship Game, in 2013. These teams 1st played in 1912, not again until 1951 and 1953 (the year MSU joined the Big Ten), played again in 1959 and 1960, and then almost every year since 1965, skipping 1977-78, 1985-86, 1989-90, 1995-96, 2001-2002, and 2009-10. The Spartans are off to a 3-1 start, losing by 4 to Boston College last week, but they are already 1-0 in the Big Ten. OSU is 3-0, but they've stomped 2 MAC teams and an SBC team. The Buckeyes will win, but the Spartans will hang with them, at least into the latter part of the 2nd quarter.
Stanford @ Clemson- The Tigers and Cardinal have actually played once before, in the 1986 Gator Bowl, with Clemson prevailing 27-21. The Tigers have gotten up off the floor after their opening loss to Georgia, and look ready to run the table in the ACC (currently 1-0). Stanford is 2-1, with a loss to TCU, but is also 1-0 in the ACC thanks to an upset of Syracuse last week. Tigers win in Death Valley.
Iowa State @ Houston- This will be a first-ever meeting between the Cyclones and the Cougars. ISU is 3-0 heading into Big XII competition, and I expect them to be in it until the end. UH is 1-3, and lost their conference opener to Cincinnati last week. By 34 points. Cyclones win.
ULM @ Troy- The Trojans lead the series 12-8, and have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 5 (since 2015). This year, the Warhawks are 2-1with their lone loss at Texas. Troy is 1-3, with losses to Nevada, at Memphis, and at Iowa, but got their 1st win last week against an FCS team. I smell a mild upset. ULM wins.
Charlotte @ Rice- The Owls lead the series 3-2, including a 28-7 win last year, but the 49ers are 1-1 in Houston. Both teams are 1-3, with Rice also having a conference loss. Charlotte has lost to 2 P5 teams, plus JMU; the Owls have lost to Army, Houston, and Sam Houston. Neither team has a win against FBS competition, so the winner of this one will get their 1st. Flip a coin. Rice wins at home.
Tulsa @ North Texas- The Golden Hurricane lead this series 17-8, winning 10 of the last 12 (since 1970), but the Mean Green have won the last 2, in 2013 and 35-28 last year. Tulsa is 2-2, with a win over La Tech in OT and losses to Arkansas St and Oklahoma St. UNT is 3-1, with big wins over South Alabama and Wyoming, and a big loss to Texas Tech. The Mean Green wins big.
Georgia @ Alabama- This is the game of the day! The Crimson Tide lead the series 43-26-4, and have won 8 of the last 9, but 6 of those have either been in the SEC Championship Game (4-0 Alabama) or in the National Championship Game (1-1). However, the Bulldogs have won 2 of the last 3 played in Tuscaloosa (loss in 2020, wins in 2007 and 2002). These teams have only played 73 times, but have been in the same conference since both joined the Southern Conference in 1921. And 15 of the 73 contests came before 1921 (1st played in 1895). Starting in 1919, they played every year through 1930, only twice more in the 30s, every year from 1941-1965 (minus 1943 for WWII), 4 times in the 70s, twice in the 80s, 4 times in the 90s, and 4 times in the aughts. They've only played twice in the regular season since 2008. Both teams are undefeated, and both teams were off last week. UGA looked impressive in their opening win over Clemson, but just ok in their 1-point win over Kentucky. Alabama has 3 blowout wins, but their big score over USF is a little deceiving. This will be the SEC opener for the Tide, but I like the Dawgs to eke out a close one.
Illinois @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions lead the series 21-6, and won 30-13 last year in Champaign, but the Fighting Illini won the last time this game was played in State College, in 2021. Interestingly, Illinois has never won twice in a row in this series. PSU is 3-0, and opened with a big win over West Virginia, but since then has struggled with BGSU, and after an off week, crushed Kent State. The Illini are 4-0, and 1-0 in the Big Ten, with wins over Kansas and Nebraska by a combined 13 points. I'm tempted to pick Illinois to upset the Lions, but I just can't get there. Penn State wins, but it just may go down to the wire.
Middle Tennessee @ Memphis- The Blue Raiders lead the series 17-9-1, winning 9 of the last 13 (since 1941), but the Tigers won the last meeting, in 2014. Memphis wins.
South Alabama @ LSU- The Jaguars and Tigers will be playing for the first time, and though SA has won 2 straight and upset App State last week, I don't anticipate LSU having many problems. Bayou Bengals win.
FSU @ SMU- In yet another 1st time meeting, the Mustangs will play their 1st ACC game at home against the Seminoles. FSU is 1-3, finally getting on the win side with a close win over Cal. SMU is 3-1, with their lone loss to a surprisingly good BYU. Ponies win, as the Noles still don't have a consistent offense.
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech- These teams have met once before, in 1968 in Lubbock, a contest that ended in a 10-10 tie. Both teams are 3-1 and 1-0 in the Big XII, but the Bearcats are awfully close to being 4-0, losing by 1 to a Pitt comeback bid. This will be a close game, but Cincy will get by the Red Raiders on a late score.
New Mexico @ New Mexico State- The Lobos have dominated this series, leading 73-35-5, but the Aggies have won the last 2, and 2 of the last 3 played in Las Cruces. These teams are a combined 1-7, with the lone win over an FCS team, and UNM lost to an FCS team. NMSU wins.
Air Force @ Wyoming- This is one of the more balanced series in CFB, as the Falcons lead by just 31-27-3, winning 3 of the last 4, including 34-27 last year, but the Cowboys have won the last 3 played in Laramie. Both teams have been a huge disappointment so far this year, as Wyoming is 0-4, including a loss to FCS Idaho, and Air Force is only 1-2, losing to SJSU and at Baylor. The Falcons were off last week, so perhaps they have fixed their offense. AF has scored only 10 points in 2 games against FBS teams, while the Cowboys have only scored 51 points in 4 games, with a high of 17, though they have improved each game. I'm guessing this will be a low scoring game. Falcons win.
Washington State @ Boise State- The Cougars lead the series 5-1, with all games played between 1997 and 2017. The Broncos got their one win in 2016, and are 1-2 in Boise. WSU is undefeated at 4-0, with wins over Texas Tech, Washington, and SJSU. BSU is 2-1, and while their wins are less than impressive, they lost to Oregon by only 3. At Oregon. This is a tough one to pick but I believe in the Cougars. Wazzu wins on the blue turf.
Arizona @ Utah- The Utes lead this series 26-20-2, winning in the 1994 Freedom Bowl, and also 6 of the last 7 contests (since 2016), but the Wildcats won 42-18 last year. Arizona hasn't won in Salt Lake City since 2014. The Wildcats were off last week while the Utes were winning their 1st ever Big XII game over co-favorite Oklahoma State. Arizona's loss came to Kansas State, but it counted as a non-conference game, so this will be their official entrance into the Big XII. That loss to KSU looks worse in retrospect, given how KSU lost to BYU by 29 points. However, the Wildcats will bounce back and give Utah all they can handle before the Utes pull it out.
Oregon @ UCLA- The Bruins lead the series 39-32, but the Ducks have won the last 4, 10 of the last 11 (including in the 2011 Pac 12 Championship Game), and 15 of the last 18 (since 2000). This will be the Big Ten opener for UO, but UCLA was already routed by Indiana, and also has a loss to LSU. Ducks win easily.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment