Odds and Ends 10/16/24

Welcome Back!

Before I get to this week's interesting tidbits, there are some games being played tonight.

Wednesday, October 16

WKU @ Sam Houston- This series is tied 1-1, with the Bearkats winning in 2004, and the Hilltoppers winning 28-23 last year. This year, the teams are a combined 9-3, and 4-0 in CUSA, with all losses to P5 teams on the road (Alabama, Boston College- by 1!- and UCF). This should be an outstanding game between 2 very fine G5 teams. SHS wins at home, but it won't be easy.

FIU @ UTEP- Each team has 3 wins in the series, with the Miners winning the last 2, including 27-14 last year, but they are only 1-2 in El Paso. This year, the Panthers have been competitive in most games, though they did lose to an FCS team. However, UTEP is winless, also including a loss to an FCS team. FIU wins on the road.

OOC games are starting to dwindle away as all teams move into their conference schedules. Of course, Notre Dame, UConn, and UMass have to play somebody, as does Oregon State and Washington State, so there will be some throughout the season. However, I have stopped updating the Inter-conference results and will pull them back out at the end of the year. Instead, I will talk about each of the conference races.

Conference Call

(Records listed do NOT reflect results from last night.)

Army leads at 5-0, but Navy is right behind at 3-0. UNT, Tulane and Charlotte are 2-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Tulsa, FAU, USF, Tulsa, and Temple all at 0-2, and UAB at 0-3.

Clemson is the only 4-0 team in the ACC, but Miami, SMU, and Pitt are 2-0. GT is already 3-2, with Cal, NC State, and UNC all 0-3, and FSU is 1-4.

BYU, Iowa State, and Texas Tech lead the Big 12 at 3-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss. Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Baylor are all 0-3.

Indiana, Oregon, and Penn State lead the Big Ten at 3-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Maryland and Purdue at 0-3, and UCLA bringing up the rear at 0-4.

Liberty leads CUSA at 3-0, but SHS, WKU, and JSU are all 2-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss. NMSU and UTEP are 0-3. 

Buffalo, Ohio, and WMU are 2-0 to lead the MAC. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Kent State at 0-2, and Akron at 0-3.

Boise State, UNLV, and SDSU are all 2-0, with CSU at 1-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Air Force bringing up the rear at 0-3.

In the Pac 2, Oregon State and Washington State don't play each other until Nov 23.

Texas A&M leads the SEC as the only team at 3-0, with Texas and LSU at 2-0. Auburn and Mississippi State are 0-3. All other teams have at least 1 loss.

Georgia Southern is the only undefeated team in the SBC East at 2-0, and Ga State is 0-2, with App State at 0-3. In the SBC West, ULM is 3-0, followed closely by Louisiana and Texas State at 2-0, with Troy and Southern Miss at 0-2.

Intraconference results

The SBC West is now 3-0 vs the SBC East as the Sun Belt is the sole conference with divisions. This is surprising, because the SBC East is generally thought to be better than the SBC West. However, there are still 11 games yet to be played, so it may still turn out that way.

Undefeated/Winless teams

Here are the remaining undefeated teams, listed alphabetically. All records are 6-0 unless otherwise indicated.

Army 

BYU

Indiana 

Iowa State 

Liberty 5-0

Miami, Fl 

Navy 5-0

Oregon 

Penn State 

Pittsburgh 

Texas

1 team suffered their 1st loss in week 7 (Ohio State), so we are down to 11 out of 134 teams (8.2%) that are still undefeated. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten- 3 out of 18 teams (.167)

AAC- 2/14 (.143)

Big 12- 2/16 (.125)

ACC- 2/17 (.118)

CUSA- 1/10 (.100)

SEC- 1/16 (.063)

Pac-0/2 teams (.000)

Ind- 0/3 (.000)

MAC- 0/12 (.000)

MWC- 0/12 (..000)

SBC- 0/14 (.000)

These teams are still winless, again listed alphabetically. All records are 0-6 unless listed otherwise.

Kennesaw State 0-5

Kent State

UTEP 

0 teams earned their 1st win, so we are still at 3 out of 134 teams (2.2%) that are winless. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten 0/18

ACC 0/17

SEC 0/16

Big 12 0/16

AAC 0/14

SBC 0/14

MWC 0/12

Ind 0/3

Pac 2 0/2

MAC 1/12

CUSA 2/10

These are the teams that have a win, but none against FBS teams. These are also listed alphabetically.

Air Force

Akron

Hawaii

Kansas

Middle Tennessee

Mississippi State

New Mexico State

Purdue

Southern Miss

Troy

UAB

UMass

Utah State

 

Overall 13 teams have a win, but no FBS wins. Here is how that breaks down by conference:

MWC- 3

CUSA- 2

SBC- 2

MAC- 1

AAC- 1

SEC- 1

Big 12- 1

Big Ten- 1

Ind- 1

Pac 12- 0

ACC- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

There are 35 bowl games this year, in addition to the 12 teams that will make the CFP. The CFP will include an additional 6 bowls- 4 for quarterfinals, and 2 for semifinals- bringing the total number of bowls to 41, but some teams (4) will play in 2 bowls (quarterfinals and semifinals). In addition, there are 4 CFP 1st round games at home sites of the 5-8 seeds. What all this means is that there will be 12 teams in the CFP, and 70 teams for the additional 35 bowl games, meaning 82 teams (out of 134, or 61.2%) will make the postseason in one form or another. The minimum requirement to reach a bowl is 6 wins, of which 5 must be against FBS teams. However, teams with 5 wins may be included (and have been in the past), and they are chosen by looking at the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of the teams with 5 wins and choosing teams with the best APR, and then in decreasing order. Hawaii plays 2 FCS teams, so they must get to 7 wins to be eligible.

Nine teams have already reached bowl eligibility, and what a surprising list it is!

Army

BYU

Indiana

Iowa State

Miami, Fl

Oregon

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Texas

So far, no team has achieved 7 losses (bowl elimination), as few teams have played more than 6 games.

Paul's Playoff Picks

Almost all of my picks are still in play (obviously), but FSU has been eliminated. This could also affect the ACC as a whole.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- lost to Alabama, has looked shaky in other games

Ohio State- defeated Iowa, but lost to Oregon

FSU- already with 4 ACC losses- ELIMINATED

Utah- losses to Arizona and Arizona State hurts

Notre Dame- lost to a MAC team, but has rebounded nicely

Boise State- loss to Oregon by 3, win over WSU

Clemson- bounced back after a big loss to UGA

Texas- has a big win over Michigan, but more big games coming

Oregon- big win over Ohio State

Iowa- has a loss to rival Iowa State and to Ohio State

Missouri- got blown out by Texas A&M

LSU- lost to Notre Dame, but creeping back into play, big win over Ole Miss

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:

Alabama- lost to VANDY, and then barely got past SC

Ole Miss- loss to Kentucky really hurts, and now a loss to LSU

Tennessee- defeated Oklahoma, lost to Arkansas

Penn State- defeated USC

Michigan- loss to Texas can be overcome, big win over USC, but then a loss at Washington

USC- 3 losses- ELIMINATED

Rutgers- lost to Nebraska and Wisconsin

Miami, Fl- still undefeated, but just barely

SMU- has a loss to BYU, but big wins over TCU, FSU, and a squeaker over Louisville

Va Tech- 3 losses- ELIMINATED

Louisville- losses to ND and SMU

NC State- Too many losses- ELIMINATED

Kansas State- loss to BYU, but big wins over Okla St and Arizona

Oklahoma State-3 losses- ELIMINATED

Arizona- losses to Kansas State and BYU, but big win over Utah

West Virginia- 3 losses- ELIMINATED

Kansas- 5 losses = ELIMINATED

UTSA- blowout losses to Texas State and Texas, and a loss to ECU- ELIMINATED

Tulane- close loss to Kansas State, bigger loss to Oklahoma

Memphis- win over FSU, but lost to Navy

East Carolina- 3 losses- must win AAC for consideration

Air Force- 4+ losses- ELIMINATED

Appalachian State- too many losses- ELIMINATED

Texas State- big win over UTSA, loss to Ariz St

Toledo- big win over Miss St, but a losses to WKU and Buffalo

Northern Illinois- big win over Notre Dame! And then a loss to Buffalo... and NC State

Liberty- still undefeated

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P5 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and 10-12 come from these 2 lists.

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!