Odds and Ends 10/23/24

Welcome Back!

Before I get to this week's interesting tidbits, there are some games being played tonight.

Wednesday, October 23

Liberty @ Kennesaw State- The Flames lead the series 2-1, with the Owls winning the most recent matchup in 2017. Much has changed since they last met, as KSU is 0-6/0-2 in their 1st year at the FBS level, and LU is 5-0/3-0. The Flames have 2 wins by 7 points or less, while the Owls had their closest loss last week, by 9 points to MTSU. Like Sam Houston last year, KSU has done OK on defense for the most part, but have only scored more than 16 points in a game once (24 vs Jax St). Liberty wins big.

Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State- These teams 1st met in 1927, and they played 12 times through 1960. They next played 5 times from 1984-1997, until JSU won last year by a score of 45-30. Overall, the Blue Raiders lead the series 14-2-2, with JSU getting their other win in 1960. This year, the Gamecocks had a rough start, but are on a 3-game winning streak, and are 2-0 in CUSA. MTSU is only 2-5/1-2, and just won their 1st FBS contest last week- over Kennesaw St, who was a member of the FCS last season. Jax State wins.

OOC games are starting to dwindle away as all teams move into their conference schedules. Of course, Notre Dame, UConn, and UMass have to play somebody, as does Oregon State and Washington State, so there will be some throughout the season. However, I have stopped updating the Inter-conference results and will pull them back out at the end of the year. Instead, I will talk about each of the conference races.

Conference Call

(Records listed do NOT reflect results from last night.)

Army leads the AAC at 6-0, but Navy is right behind at 4-0, and Tulane at 3-0.  All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Tulsa, FAU, USF, and Tulsa at 0-3, and UAB at 0-4.

Clemson is the only 5-0 team in the ACC, but Miami and SMU are 3-0, and Pitt is 2-0. GT is already 3-2, with Cal at 0-4 and UNC at 0-3, and FSU is 1-5, the only team in any conference with 5 losses.

BYU and Iowa State lead the Big 12 at 3-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss. Oklahoma State is 0-4.

Indiana and Oregon are 4-0 in the Big Ten, and Penn State is 3-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Purdue bringing up the rear at 0-4.

Liberty and WKU lead CUSA at 3-0,  and JSU is 2-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss. Kennesaw State is 0-2. 

WMU leads the MAC at 3-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Kent State and Akron at 0-3.

Boise State, UNLV, Colorado State and SDSU are all 2-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Air Force bringing up the rear at 0-4.

In the Pac 2, Oregon State and Washington State don't play each other until Nov 23.

Texas A&M leads the SEC as the only team at 4-0, with LSU close behind at 2-0. Auburn and Mississippi State are 0-4. All other teams have at least 1 loss and 1 win.

Georgia Southern is the only undefeated team in the SBC East at 3-0, with App State and Ga State at 0-3. In the SBC West, ULM and Louisiana are 3-0, with Troy and Southern Miss at 0-3.

Intraconference results

The SBC West is now 4-1 vs the SBC East as the Sun Belt is the sole conference with divisions. This is surprising, because the SBC East is generally thought to be better than the SBC West. However, there are still 9 games yet to be played, so it may still turn out that way.

Undefeated/Winless teams

Here are the remaining undefeated teams, listed alphabetically. All records are 7-0 unless otherwise indicated.

Army 

BYU

Indiana 

Iowa State 

Liberty 5-0

Miami, Fl 

Navy 6-0

Oregon 

Penn State 6-0

Pittsburgh 6-0

1 team suffered their 1st loss in week 8 (Texas), so we are down to 10 out of 134 teams (7.5%) that are still undefeated. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten- 3 out of 18 teams (.167)

AAC- 2/14 (.143)

Big 12- 2/16 (.125)

ACC- 2/17 (.118)

CUSA- 1/10 (.100)

Pac-0/2 teams (.000)

Ind- 0/3 (.000)

MAC- 0/12 (.000)

MWC- 0/12 (..000)

SBC- 0/14 (.000)

SEC- 0/16 (.000)

These teams are still winless, again listed alphabetically. All records are 0-7 unless listed otherwise.

Kennesaw State 0-6

Kent State

1 team (UTEP) earned their 1st win, so we are at 2 out of 134 teams (1.5%) that are winless. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten 0/18

ACC 0/17

SEC 0/16

Big 12 0/16

AAC 0/14

SBC 0/14

MWC 0/12

Ind 0/3

Pac 2 0/2

MAC 1/12

CUSA 1/10

These are the teams that have a win, but none against FBS teams. These are also listed alphabetically.

Air Force

Akron

Hawaii

Mississippi State

Purdue

Southern Miss

Troy

UAB

UMass

Utah State

 

Overall 10 teams have a win, but no FBS wins. Here is how that breaks down by conference:

MWC- 3

SBC- 2

MAC- 1

AAC- 1

SEC- 1

Big Ten- 1

Ind- 1

CUSA- 0

Big 12- 0

Pac 12- 0

ACC- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

There are 35 bowl games this year, in addition to the 12 teams that will make the CFP. The CFP will include an additional 6 bowls- 4 for quarterfinals, and 2 for semifinals- bringing the total number of bowls to 41, but some teams (4) will play in 2 bowls (quarterfinals and semifinals). In addition, there are 4 CFP 1st round games at home sites of the 5-8 seeds. What all this means is that there will be 12 teams in the CFP, and 70 teams for the additional 35 bowl games, meaning 82 teams (out of 134, or 61.2%) will make the postseason in one form or another. The minimum requirement to reach a bowl is 6 wins, of which 5 must be against FBS teams. However, teams with 5 wins may be included (and have been in the past), and they are chosen by looking at the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of the teams with 5 wins and choosing teams with the best APR, and then in decreasing order. Hawaii plays 2 FCS teams, so they must get to 7 wins to be eligible.

25 teams have already reached bowl eligibility, meaning 57 more teams are needed.

Army

BYU

Clemson

Duke

Georgia

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa State

Kansas State

Louisiana

LSU

Memphis

Miami, Fl

Missouri

Navy

Notre Dame

Oregon

Penn State

Pittsburgh

SMU

Tennessee

Texas

Texas A&M

UNLV

Washington State

So far, only one team has reached 7 losses, meaning they 2 teams are currently not eligible.

Kennesaw State (transition team)

Kent State

Paul's Playoff Picks

Almost all of my picks are still in play (obviously), but FSU has been eliminated. This could also affect the ACC as a whole.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- lost to Alabama, defeated Texas

Ohio State- defeated Iowa, but lost to Oregon

FSU- ELIMINATED

Utah- ELIMINATED

Notre Dame- lost to a MAC team, but has rebounded nicely

Boise State- loss to Oregon by 3, win over WSU

Clemson- bounced back after a big loss to UGA

Texas- has a big win over Michigan, loss to UGA

Oregon- big win over Ohio State

Iowa- ELIMINATED

Missouri- got blown out by Texas A&M

LSU- lost to Notre Dame, but creeping back into play, big win over Ole Miss

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:

Alabama- 2 losses, to Vandy and Tennessee

Ole Miss- loss to Kentucky really hurts, and now a loss to LSU

Tennessee- defeated Alabama, lost to Arkansas

Penn State- defeated USC

Michigan- ELIMINATED

USC- ELIMINATED

Rutgers- ELIMINATED

Miami, Fl- still undefeated, but just barely

SMU- has a loss to BYU

Va Tech- ELIMINATED

Louisville- ELIMINATED

NC State-  ELIMINATED

Kansas State- loss to BYU

Oklahoma State- ELIMINATED

Arizona- ELIMINATED

West Virginia- ELIMINATED

Kansas- ELIMINATED

UTSA- ELIMINATED

Tulane- close loss to Kansas State, bigger loss to Oklahoma

Memphis- win over FSU, but lost to Navy

East Carolina- ELIMINATED

Air Force- ELIMINATED

Appalachian State- ELIMINATED

Texas State- ELIMINATED

Toledo- big win over Miss St, but a losses to WKU and Buffalo

Northern Illinois- ELIMINATED

Liberty- still undefeated

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P5 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and 10-12 come from these 2 lists.

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!