Odds and Ends 10/30/24

Welcome Back!

Personal Note: I will be traveling this weekend, and so may be late getting my picks posted, maybe as late as Friday afternoon or evening. Rest assured the Thursday Night prediction has already been written, and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it. This also means that I won't see any of the games this weekend, and so I may not post a TWIF Notes on Monday, as I usually do most of my work and research on Sunday, and that is when I'll be flying back home. 

Before I get to this week's interesting tidbits, there are some games being played tonight.

Wednesday, October 30

Jacksonville State @ Liberty- The Gamecocks lead the series 4-1, winning in 1981, 1982, 2016 and 2017, but the Flames won 31-13 last year. JSU sits in a tie with WKU atop CUSA, as they have won 4 in a row. LU suffered their 1st defeat of the season- and their 1st in the regular season since 2022- but it was a doozy, as they inexplicably lost to new FBS and CUSA member Kennesaw State, who came in winless. I expect that was just an aberration for the Flames, but their CUSA wins this year seem a lot closer than most of their wins last year. The Gamecocks are certainly capable of winning this, but Liberty wins at home.

Kennesaw State @ WKU- This will be a 1st time meeting, and we've had a lot of those this year with all the conference realignment (and I suspect we aren't finished). The Hilltoppers are 5-2, with their only losses to Alabama and to Boston College (by 1), and they have a win over Toledo. The Owls have struggled in their 1st season at the FBS level, but they are coming off a win over previously undefeated Liberty. Maybe KSU has finally put it all together, but I'm guessing last week was a fluke- just one of those days, like NIU beating Notre Dame. WKU wins.

OOC games are starting to dwindle away as all teams are into their conference schedules. Of course, Notre Dame, UConn, and UMass have to play somebody, as does Oregon State and Washington State, so there will be some throughout the season. However, I have stopped updating the Inter-conference results and will pull them back out at the end of the year. Instead, I will talk about each of the conference races.

Conference Call

(Records listed do NOT reflect results from last night.)

Army leads the AAC at 6-0, but Navy and Tulane are 4-0.  All other teams have at least 1 loss, with  FAU at 0-3, and UAB at 0-4.

Clemson is the only 5-0 team in the ACC, but Miami and SMU are 4-0, and Pitt is 3-0. Cal brings up the rear at 0-4, but FSU is 1-6.

BYU leads the Big XII at 5-0 with Iowa State close behind at 3-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss. Oklahoma State is 0-5.

Indiana and Oregon are 5-0 in the Big Ten, and Penn State is 4-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Purdue at the bottom at 0-4.

JSU and WKU lead CUSA at 3-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, and every team has at least 1 win. 

WMU leads the MAC at 4-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Kent State at 0-4.

Boise State and Colorado State are 3-0, with SDSU at 2-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Air Force bringing up the rear at 0-4, and Nevada at 0-3.

In the Pac 2, Oregon State and Washington State don't play each other until Nov 23.

Texas A&M leads the SEC as the only team at 5-0. Mississippi State is 0-5. All other teams have at least 1 loss and 1 win.

Georgia Southern and ODU lead the SBC East at 3-1, with Ga State at 0-4. In the SBC West,  Louisiana is 3-0, with Troy and Southern Miss at 0-4.

Intraconference results

The SBC West is now 4-2 vs the SBC East as the Sun Belt is the sole conference with divisions. This is surprising, because the SBC East is generally thought to be better than the SBC West. However, there are still 8 games yet to be played, so it may still turn out that way.

Undefeated/Winless teams

Here are the remaining undefeated teams, listed alphabetically. All records are 8-0 unless otherwise indicated.

Army 7-0

BYU

Indiana 

Iowa State 

Miami, Fl 

Oregon 

Penn State 7-0

Pittsburgh 7-0

2 teams suffered their 1st loss in week 9, so we are down to 8 out of 134 teams (6%) that are still undefeated. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten- 3 out of 18 teams (.167)

Big 12- 2/16 (.125)

ACC- 2/17 (.118)

AAC- 1/14 (.071)

Pac-0/2 teams (.000)

Ind- 0/3 (.000)

CUSA- 0/10 (.000)

MAC- 0/12 (.000)

MWC- 0/12 (..000)

SBC- 0/14 (.000)

SEC- 0/16 (.000)

These teams are still winless, again listed alphabetically. All records are 0-8 unless listed otherwise.

Kent State

1 team (Kennesaw State) earned their 1st win, so we are at 1 out of 134 teams (0.7%) that are winless. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten 0/18

ACC 0/17

SEC 0/16

Big 12 0/16

AAC 0/14

SBC 0/14

MWC 0/12

CUSA 0/10

Ind 0/3

Pac 2 0/2

MAC 1/12

These are the teams that have a win, but none against FBS teams. These are also listed alphabetically.

Air Force

Mississippi State

Purdue

Southern Miss

Troy

UAB

UMass

 

Overall 7 teams have a win, but no FBS wins. Here is how that breaks down by conference:

MWC- 1

SBC- 2

AAC- 1

SEC- 1

Big Ten- 1

Ind- 1

CUSA- 0

Big 12- 0

Pac 12- 0

ACC- 0

MAC- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

There are 35 bowl games this year, in addition to the 12 teams that will make the CFP. The CFP will include an additional 6 bowls- 4 for quarterfinals, and 2 for semifinals- bringing the total number of bowls to 41, but some teams (4) will play in 2 bowls (quarterfinals and semifinals). In addition, there are 4 CFP 1st round games at home sites of the 5-8 seeds. What all this means is that there will be 12 teams in the CFP, and 70 teams for the additional 35 bowl games, meaning 82 teams (out of 134, or 61.2%) will make the postseason in one form or another. The minimum requirement to reach a bowl is 6 wins, of which 5 must be against FBS teams. However, teams with 5 wins may be included (and have been in the past), and they are chosen by looking at the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of the teams with 5 wins and choosing teams with the best APR, and then in decreasing order. Hawaii plays 2 FCS teams, so they must get to 7 wins to be eligible.

33 teams have already reached bowl eligibility, meaning 49 more teams are needed.

Alabama

Army

Boise State

BYU

Clemson

Colorado

Duke

Georgia

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa State

James Madison

Kansas State

Louisiana

LSU

Memphis

Miami, Fl

Missouri

Navy

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Ole Miss

Oregon

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Sam Houston

SMU

Tennessee

Texas

Texas A&M

Tulane

UNLV

Washington State

These are the teams who have reached 7 losses (or are otherwise ineligible). Some 7 loss teams may yet qualify for a bowl.

FSU

Kennesaw State (transition team)

Kent State

Mississippi State

Southern Miss

Troy

UTEP

Wyoming

Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.

Team: Vanderbilt

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Auburn, SC, at LSU, Tenn

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Nebraska

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: UCLA, at USC, Wisconsin, at Iowa

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Wisconsin 

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Iowa, Oregon, at Nebraska, Minnesota

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Georgia Tech

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Miami, NC State, UGA

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Syracuse

Record: 5-2

Remaining Schedule: Va Tech, BC, Cal, UConn, Miami

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Texas Tech

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Iowa St, Colo, at Okla St, WVU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Cincinnati

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: WVU, at Iowa St, at Kansas St, TCU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Arizona State

Record: 5-2

Remaining Schedule: at Okla St, UCF, at Kansas St, BYU, at Arizona

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: North Texas

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Army, at UTSA, ECU, at Temple

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: San Jose State

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Ore St, Boise St, UNLV, Stanford

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Georgia Southern

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at S Ala, Troy, at CCU, App St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: ULM

Record: 5-2

Remaining Schedule: at Marshall, Texas St, at Auburn, at Ark St, Louisiana

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Toledo

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at EMU, CMU, Ohio, at Akron

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Eastern Michigan

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Toledo, at Ohio, Buffalo, at WMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Liberty

Record: 5-1

Remaining Schedule: JSU, at MTSU, at UMass, WKU, at SHS

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: WKU

Record: 5-2

Remaining Schedule: Kenn St, at NMSU, La Tech, at Lib, JSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Arkansas

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Miss, Texas, La Tech, at Mizzou

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Michigan

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Oregon, at Indiana, NW, at Ohio St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Iowa

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Wisc, at UCLA, at Maryland, Neb

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Minnesota

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, at Rutgers, Penn St, at Wisconsin

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Virginia Tech

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Syra, Clemson, at Duke, UVA

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Louisville

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, at Stanford, Pitt, at Kentucky

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: TCU

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Baylor, Okla St, Arizona, at Cincy

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Fresno State

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Hawaii, at AF, Colo St, at UCLA

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Colorado State

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Nev, Wyoming, at Fresno St, Utah St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: UConn

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Ga St, at UAB, at Syracuse, at UMass

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Arkansas State

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana, at Ga St, ULM, ODU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Ohio

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Kent St, EMU, at Toldeo, Ball St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Western Michigan

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: NIU, at BGSU, at CMU, EMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Oklahoma

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Maine, at Mizzou, Alabama, at LSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Florida

Record: 4-3

Remaining Schedule: UGA, at Texas, LSU, Miss, at FSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: South Carolina

Record: 4-3

Remaining Schedule: Texas A&M, at Vandy, Mizzou, Wofford, at Clemson

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Rutgers

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Minn, at Maryland, Illinois, at Mich St

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Maryland

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, Rutgers, Iowa, at Penn St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Washington

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: USC, at Penn St, UCLA, at Oregon

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Michigan State

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Indiana, at Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: NC State

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Stanford, Duke, at GT, at UNC

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Boston College

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Syra, at SMU, UNC, Pitt

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Virginia

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Pitt, at ND, SMU, at Va Tech

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Utah

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: BYU, at Colo, Iowa St, at UCF

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Oregon State

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: SJSU, at AF, Wash St, at Boise St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Marshall

Record: 4-3

Remaining Schedule: ULM, at Southern Miss, CCU, at ODU, at JMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Coastal Carolina

Record: 4-3

Remaining Schedule: at Troy, App St, at Marshall, at Ga Sou, at Ga St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Texas State

Record: 4-3

Remaining Schedule: Louisiana, at ULM, Southern Miss, Ga St, at S Alabama

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Northern Illinois

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at WMU, Akron, at Miami, CMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Buffalo

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Akron, Ball St, at EMU, Kent St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: USC

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Wash, Neb, at UCLA, ND

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: North Carolina

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at FSU, WF, at BC, NC St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: California

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at WF, Syra, Stanford, at SMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Wake Forest

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Cal, UNC, Miami, Duke

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: West Virginia

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Cincy, Baylor, UCF, at Texas Tech

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Baylor

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: TCU, at WVU, at Houston, Kansas

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: East Carolina

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: FAU, at Tulsa, at UNT, Navy

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: ODU

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at App St, JMU, Marshall, at Ark St

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: South Alabama

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Ga Sou, at Louisiana, at Southern Miss, Texas St

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Miami, Oh

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Ball St, Kent St, NIU, at BGSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Bowling Green

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at CMU, WMU, at Ball St, Miami

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Jacksonville State

Record: 4-3

Remaining Schedule: at Lib, at La Tech, FIU, SHS, at WKU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Kentucky

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at Tenn, Murray St, at Texas, Louisville

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Northwestern

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at Purdue, Ohio St, at Mich, Illinois

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Oklahoma State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Ariz St, at TCU, Texas Tech, at Colo

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Arizona

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at UCF, Houston, at TCU, Ariz St

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: UCF

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Ariz, at Ariz St, at WVU, Utah

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: UTSA

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Memphis, at UNT, Temple, at Army

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: USF

Record: 3-4

Remaining Schedule: at FAU, Navy, at Charlotte, Tulsa, at Rice

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Charlotte

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Tulane, USF, at FAU, UAB

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: San Diego State

Record: 3-4

Remaining Schedule: at Boise St, UNM, at UNLV, at Utah St, AF

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: New Mexico

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Wyoming, at SDSU, Wash St, at Hawaii

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Nevada

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: Colo St, at Boise St, AF, at UNLV

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Central Michigan

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: BGSU, at Toledo, WMU, NIU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Auburn

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Vandy, ULM, Texas A&M, Alabama

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Houston

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Kansas St, at Ariz, Baylor, at BYU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Tulsa

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at UAB, ECU, at USF, FAU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Hawaii

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at Fresno St, UNLV, at Utah St, UNM

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Appalachian State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: ODU, at CCU, JMU, at Ga Sou

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Ball State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Miami, at Buff, BGSU, at Ohio

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: La Tech

Record: 3-4

Remaining Schedule: at SHS, JSU, at WKU, at Arkansas, Kenn St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: UCLA

Record: 2-5

Remaining Schedule: at Neb, Iowa, at Wash, USC, Fresno St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Stanford

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at NC St, Louisville, at Cal, at SJSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Kansas

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: Iowa St, at BYU, Colo, at Baylor

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: FAU

Record: 2-5

Remaining Schedule: USF, at ECU, at Temple, Charlotte, at Tulsa

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Rice

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: Navy, at Memphis, at UAB, USF

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Temple

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at Tulane, FAU, at UTSA, UNT

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Georgia State

Record: 2-5

Remaining Schedule: at UConn, at JMU, Ark St, at Texas St, CCU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: FIU

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: NMSU, at JSU, at Kenn St, MTSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: New Mexico State

Record: 2-5

Remaining Schedule: at FIU, WKU, at Texas A&M, at MTSU, UTEP

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Middle Tennessee

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at UTEP, Lib, NMSU, at FIU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Utah State

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at Wash St, Hawaii, SDSU, at Colo St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: UMass

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at Miss St, Lib, at UGA, UConn

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Akron

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: Buff, at NIU, at Kent St, Toledo

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Purdue

Record: 1-6

Remaining Schedule: NW, at Ohio St, Penn St, at Mich St, at Indiana

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: UAB

Record: 1-6

Remaining Schedule: Tulsa, UConn, at Memphis, Rice, at Charlotte

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Air Force

Record: 1-6

Remaining Schedule: at Army, Fresno St, Ore St, at Nev, at SDSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Paul's Playoff Picks

Almost all of my picks are still in play (obviously), but FSU has been eliminated. This could also affect the ACC as a whole.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- lost to Alabama, defeated Texas

Ohio State- defeated Iowa, but lost to Oregon

FSU- ELIMINATED

Utah- ELIMINATED

Notre Dame- lost to a MAC team, but has rebounded nicely

Boise State- loss to Oregon by 3, wins over WSU and UNLV

Clemson- bounced back after a big loss to UGA

Texas- has a big win over Michigan, loss to UGA

Oregon- big win over Ohio State

Iowa- ELIMINATED

Missouri- got blown out by Texas A&M and Alabama- probably eliminated

LSU- lost to Notre Dame and Texas A&M

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:

Alabama- 2 losses, to Vandy and Tennessee

Ole Miss- loss to Kentucky really hurts, and now a loss to LSU

Tennessee- defeated Alabama, lost to Arkansas

Penn State- defeated USC

Michigan- ELIMINATED

USC- ELIMINATED

Rutgers- ELIMINATED

Miami, Fl- still undefeated, but just barely

SMU- has a loss to BYU

Va Tech- ELIMINATED

Louisville- ELIMINATED

NC State-  ELIMINATED

Kansas State- loss to BYU

Oklahoma State- ELIMINATED

Arizona- ELIMINATED

West Virginia- ELIMINATED

Kansas- ELIMINATED

UTSA- ELIMINATED

Tulane- close loss to Kansas State, bigger loss to Oklahoma

Memphis- win over FSU, but lost to Navy

East Carolina- ELIMINATED

Air Force- ELIMINATED

Appalachian State- ELIMINATED

Texas State- ELIMINATED

Toledo- ELIMINATED

Northern Illinois- ELIMINATED

Liberty- ELIMINATED

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P5 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and 10-12 come from these 2 lists.

This late in the season, 9 of my 12 picks are still possibilities. Teams that are still in the race that I (and everyone else!) whiffed on include: 

Texas A&M

Tennessee

Indiana

Iowa State

Colorado

BYU

Army

Navy

UNLV

Of my "extra" picks, only 9 of 27 are still possibilities.

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!