Odds and Ends 10/9/24

Welcome Back!

Before I get to this week's interesting tidbits, there is a game being played tonight.

Wednesday, October 9

New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State- The Aggies won the contest last year, 20-17 in Las Cruces, but while both teams combined for a 19-9 record last year, this year they are 3-7, with NMSU 0-2 in CUSA. The Gamecocks plastered Kennesaw State last week to win their conference opener, and they should get to 2-0 in CUSA with this win. JSU wins.

OOC games are starting to dwindle away as all teams move into their conference schedules. Of course, Notre Dame, UConn, and UMass have to play somebody, as does Oregon State and Washington State, so there will be some throughout the season. However, I have stopped updating the Inter-conference results and will pull them back out at the end of the year. Instead, I will talk about each of the conference races.

Conference Call

Army leads at 4-0, but Navy is right behind at 3-0. Tulane and Charlotte are 2-0, and UNT is 1-0. All other teams have at least 1 loss, with Tulsa, Rice, UAB, and Temple all at 0-2.

Clemson is the only 3-0 team in the ACC, but Miami, SMU, and Virginia are 2-0, and Pitt is 1-0. GT is already 2-2, with Cal, NC State, and UNC all 0-2, and FSU is the only team in any conference with 4 losses (1-4).

Texas Tech leads the Big 12 at 3-0, with BYU, Iowa State, West Virginia, and Colorado right behind at 2-0. which is what we all expected, right? Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Baylor are all 0-3.

Indiana leads the Big Ten at 3-0, but Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are all 2-0 (and OSU plays Oregon this weekend in Eugene). All other teams have at least 1 loss, with 6 having 2 losses, and UCLA bringing up the rear at 0-3.

Liberty and Sam Houston are 2-0 to lead CUSA, 3 teams are 1-0, and NMSU and UTEP are 0-2. 

7 teams in the MAC are 1-0, 3 are 0-1, and Ball State and Akron are 0-2.

SJSU leads the MWC at 2-0, 4 teams are 1-0, 4 are 0-1, and Air Force is 0-2. Fresno State is the only team with both a win and a loss (1-1), and Colorado State is the only non-independent who has yet to play a conference game.

In the Pac 2, Oregon State and Washington State don't play each other until Nov 23.

Texas A&M leads the SEC as the only team at 3-0, and Auburn is the only team at 0-3. Texas and LSU are 1-0, but every other team has at least 1 loss, with Georgia and Arkansas at 2-1.

Only 4 SBC teams have played more than 1 game, with ULM the only 2-0 team. App State and Troy are 0-2, and South Alabama is 1-1.

Intraconference results

The SBC West is now 2-0 vs the SBC East as the Sun Belt is the sole conference with divisions. This is interesting, because the SBC East is generally thought to be better than the SBC West. However, there are still 12 games yet to be played, so it may still turn out that way.

Undefeated/Winless teams

Here are the remaining undefeated teams, listed alphabetically. All records are 5-0 unless otherwise indicated.

Army 

BYU

Indiana 6-0

Iowa State 

Liberty 4-0

Miami, Fl 6-0

Navy 

Ohio State 

Oregon 

Penn State 

Pittsburgh 

Texas

7 teams suffered their 1st loss in week 6, so we are down to 12 out of 134 teams (9%) that are still undefeated. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten- 4 out of 18 teams (.222)

AAC- 2/14 (.143)

Big 12- 2/16 (.125)

ACC- 2/17 (.118)

CUSA- 1/10 (.100)

SEC- 1/16 (.063)

Pac-0/2 teams (.000)

Ind- 0/3 (.000)

MAC- 0/12 (.000)

MWC- 0/12 (..000)

SBC- 0/14 (.000)

These teams are still winless, again listed alphabetically. All records are 0-5 unless listed otherwise.

Kennesaw State 

Kent State

UTEP 

0 teams earned their 1st win, so we are at 3 out of 134 teams (2.2%) that are still winless. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten 0/18

ACC 0/17

SEC 0/16

Big 12 0/16

AAC 0/14

SBC 0/14

MWC 0/12

Ind 0/3

Pac 2 0/2

MAC 1/12

CUSA 2/10

These are the teams that have a win, but none against FBS teams. These are also listed alphabetically.

Air Force

Akron

Ball State

Hawaii

Kansas

La Tech

Middle Tennessee

Mississippi State

New Mexico State

Purdue

Rice

Southern Miss

Troy

UAB

UMass

Utah State

 

Overall 17 teams have a win, but no FBS wins. Here is how that breaks down by conference:

MWC- 3

MAC- 3

CUSA- 3

AAC- 2

SBC- 2

SEC- 1

Big 12- 1

Big Ten- 1

Ind- 1

Pac 12- 0

ACC- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

There are 35 bowl games this year, in addition to the 12 teams that will make the CFP. The CFP will include an additional 6 bowls- 4 for quarterfinals, and 2 for semifinals- bringing the total number of bowls to 41, but some teams (4) will play in 2 bowls (quarterfinals and semifinals). In addition, there are 4 CFP 1st round games at home sites of the 5-8 seeds. What all this means is that there will be 12 teams in the CFP, and 70 teams for the additional 35 bowl games, meaning 82 teams (out of 134, or 61.2%) will make the postseason in one form or another. The minimum requirement to reach a bowl is 6 wins, of which 5 must be against FBS teams. However, teams with 5 wins may be included (and have been in the past), and they are chosen by looking at the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of the teams with 5 wins and choosing teams with the best APR, and then in decreasing order. Hawaii plays 2 FCS teams, so they must get to 7 wins to be eligible.

Two teams have already reached bowl eligibility, and of course we all expected Indiana to be the 1st team to get to 6 wins!

Indiana

Miami, Fl

So far, no team has achieved 7 losses (bowl elimination), as no team has played more than 6 games.

Paul's Playoff Picks

Almost all of my picks are still in play (obviously), but FSU has been eliminated. This could also affect the ACC as a whole.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- loss to Alabama lessens the margin for error

Ohio State- defeated Iowa, but has a big game with Oregon this weekend

FSU- already with 4 ACC losses- ELIMINATED

Utah- loss to Arizona hurts

Notre Dame- loss to a MAC team, but has rebounded nicely

Boise State- loss to Oregon by 3, win over WSU

Clemson- bounced back after a big loss to UGA

Texas- has a big win over Michigan, but big games the next 2 weeks

Oregon- looked shaky in 2 close wins, but better lately, plays Ohio State this weekend

Iowa- has a loss to rival Iowa State and to Ohio State

Missouri- got blown out by Texas A&M

LSU- loss to Notre Dame, but creeping back into play, big game with Ole Miss Saturday

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:

Alabama- lost to VANDY!

Ole Miss- loss to Kentucky really hurts

Tennessee- defeated Oklahoma, lost to Arkansas

Penn State- still hasn't proven much

Michigan- loss to Texas can be overcome, big win over USC, but then a loss at Washington

USC- loss to Michigan hurts, but loss to Minnesota hurts more

Rutgers- lost to Nebraska

Miami, Fl- still undefeated, but just barely

SMU- has a loss to BYU, but big wins over TCU, FSU, and a squeaker over Louisville

Va Tech- already suffered a loss...against VANDY! And now to Rutgers and Miami

Louisville- losses to ND and SMU

NC State- Too many losses- ELIMINATED

Kansas State- loss to BYU, but big wins over Okla St and Arizona

Oklahoma State-3 losses- ELIMINATED

Arizona- loss to Kansas State, but big win over Utah

West Virginia- now has 2 losses, but just beat Okla State

Kansas- 5 losses = ELIMINATED

UTSA- blowout losses to Texas State and Texas, and a loss to ECU

Tulane- close loss to Kansas State, bigger loss to Oklahoma

Memphis- win over FSU, but loss to Navy

East Carolina- 3 losses- must win AAC for consideration

Air Force- 4 losses- ELIMINATED

Appalachian State- must win SBC to have a chance

Texas State- big win over UTSA, loss to Ariz St

Toledo- big win over Miss St, but a loss to WKU

Northern Illinois- big win over Notre Dame! And then a loss to Buffalo... and NC State

Liberty- still undefeated

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P5 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and 10-12 come from these 2 lists.

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!