Paul's Picks Week 10
Welcome Back!
I had another mediocre week, going 42-15, a winning percentage of 73.4%. There are 49 games this week, the fewest since Week 6 also had 49. Games are much harder to predict now that we have moved into conference play, where there are all these rivalries.
Overall, I am 438-139, a percentage of 75.9%, and a decrease of 0.3% from last week. I'm below 80% overall, and won't get back there, but I can still reach my "realistic" goal of 75%, but I'm getting awfully close to dropping below that, as I have been below 75% for the last 6 weeks.
So far, I am 4-1 after the early games, which is a good start.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 31
Tulane @ Charlotte- This will be the 1st time these teams will ever meet on the gridiron. The Green Wave are one of the leaders in the AAC standings, while the 49ers have lost 2 in a row, and are 3-5 overall, though they are 2-2 in the AAC. Tulane wins.
Friday, November 1
Georgia State @ UConn- In their 1st meeting last year, the Panthers won 35-14 in Atlanta. But this is this year, and the game is being played in Storrs, with the Huskies on the cusp of being bowl eligible after finishing 3-9 last year. GSU has lost 4 straight games, but 2 were by 7 points or less each. UConn wins.
USF @ FAU- The Bulls lead this series 3-2, but the Owls have won the last 2. Neither team is having a particularly successful season, and this is the 1st time the game will be played in Boca Raton. Flip a coin. USF wins.
San Diego State @ Boise State- The Broncos lead the series 5-4, winning the last 2, but this is an interesting series. After BSU won the 1st game, the teams have alternated 2-game win streaks, so it's time for the Aztecs to start theirs. But patterns (and records) are made to be broken. Boise State wins over SDSU on the blue turf.
Saturday, November 2
Ohio State @ Penn State- The Buckeyes lead this series 24-14, winning the last 7, and 18 of the last 22, with the Nittany Lions owning a win in the 1980 Fiesta Bowl. They 1st played in 1912, but not again until 1956, and then played in 2-year sets, in 1963-64 and 1975-76. This is the game of the week, as the Lions can stake their claim to the upper echelon of the Big Ten, and OSU will be trying to stay in the title chase. Because of the size of these modern conferences, these teams have played no common opponents with which I can compare, so this is a true guess going on nothing but what I've seen and a gut feeling. Penn State wins.
Duke @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes lead the series 15-5, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Blue Devils have won 3 of the last 5, including 45-22 the last time they met, in 2022 in Miami Gardens, and have won the last 2 times in Miami. Not much was expected of Duke this year in their 1st season under new HC Manny Diaz, but they have already reached bowl eligibility, and need just 3 wins in their last 5 games (plus a bowl game) to top last year's 8 wins. The Canes were expected to be good, and they haven't disappointed, going 8-0 and winning their games by an average of 25.25 ppg, but 3 of those wins have been by a combined 12 points. It could happen, but I don't see Miami stumbling in this game. Canes win.
Ole Miss @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks lead this series 38-30-1, winning the last 2 played in Fayetteville, but the Rebels have won 4 of the last 6, and 2 of their wins were in the 1963 and 1970 Sugar Bowls. This game has been close lately, as no team has won by more than 15 since 2014. The Hogs are 5-3/3-2, winning 2 of their last 3, including a win over Tennessee. Ole Miss is 6-2/2-2, and have also won 2 of their last 3. Against their only common opponent, LSU, the Rebels lost 29-26 in OT in Baton Rouge while Arkansas lost 34-10 a week later at home. Arkansas pulls the mild upset.
Minnesota @ Illinois- The Golden Gophers have the 40-33-3 edge in this series that began in 1898, but the Fighting Illini have won the last 3, and 2 of the last 3 played in Champaign. Both teams are 3-2 in the Big Ten, with Illinois losing at Penn State and at Oregon, and Minnesota losing to Iowa and at Michigan. The Illini defeated Michigan at home. Illinois wins.
Air Force @ Army- The Falcons have doubled up the Black Knights in this series, leading 38-19-1, but Army has won 5 of the last 7. Army's 20 point win last year was the biggest since they won by 21 in 2017. This year, the Black Knights are 7-0 and leading the AAC. Air Force is 1-6, in last place in the MWC, and doesn't have a win against an FBS foe. This is a rivalry game, so anything can happen (heck- even Kennesaw State beat Liberty last week!). Army wins, I think decisively, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons kept it close into the 2nd half.
Northwestern @ Purdue- The Boilermakers lead the series 53-34-1, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Wildcats won 23-15 last year, and have won 5 of the last 6 played in West Lafayette. Purdue is one of the worst FBS teams this year, as they have lost 6 straight FBS contests, and 11 of their last 13. Cats win.
Stanford @ NC State- This is a long and storied rivalry. Ah, who am I kidding? These teams have never met before. The Cardinal is 2-6/1-4 and the Wolfpack are 4-4/1-3, so I don't expect a lot of high level execution here. NC State has lost 2 of their last 3, but Stanford has lost 5 in a row. Wolfpack wins.
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse- The Orange lead this series 11-9, winning 4 of the last 6, but the Hokies won 38-10 last year. VT is only 2-8 at Syracuse. The Orange are 5-2/2-2, but have won 3 of the last 4, losing to Pitt their last time out. The Hokies are 5-3/3-1, playing much better lately with a 3-game winning streak. VT wins.
Buffalo @ Akron- The Bulls lead the series 12-11, winning the last 6, but the Zips have won 3 of the last 6 played at home. Akron ended their 9-game FBS losing streak with a win last week against EMU, but they haven't won 2 MAC games in the same season since 2018, when they were 2-6 in the conference. Buffalo is 4-4/2-2, but they've lost 2 straight games. This game could go either way, but I guess you could say that about most MAC games. Bulls win.
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan- The Rockets lead the series 38-13, winning the last 3, and 22 of the last 25. The Eagles were having a good season until their loss to Akron last week, but a win here could keep them in the MAC title chase. Toledo wins.
Memphis @ UTSA- The Roadrunners own a 31-28 win in their only previous meeting, in Memphis in 2021. The Tigers are 7-1/3-1 this year, and need to win out to have any chance of making the AAC CG. UTSA is 3-5/1-3, and playing the role of spoiler. Memphis wins.
Vanderbilt @ Auburn- I was really surprised to learn that the Tigers only lead this series by a 22-21-1 tally, but they've won 15 of the last 17 (since 1978), and the Commodores have won 2 of the last 4. Vandy chalked up most of their wins from 1894-1950 (they 1st played in 1893), and they defeated the Plainsmen in the 1955 Gator Bowl. The Dores continue to play well, despite their loss to Texas last week, and they stand at 5-3/2-2. The War Eagles are only 3-5/1-4, but got their 1st SEC win over Kentucky last week, and only UGA has beaten them by more than 10 points. Vandy wins a close one.
Maine @ Oklahoma- The Sooners will rout the 4-4 Black Bears in this 1st ever meeting.
ODU @ Appalachian State- The Monarchs have won 3 in a row, and 4 out of 5 to move into a tie for 1st place in the SBC East. The Mountaineers broke a 3-game losing streak with a win over woeful Ga State last week. ASU leads the series 3-1, with ODU's lone win coming last year in Norfolk. Monarchs win.
Tulsa @ UAB- The Golden Hurricane have won all 4 matchups with the Blazers, but those all happened between 2007 and 2012. Both teams are having disappointing seasons, with Tulsa at 3-5/1-3 and UAB at 1-6/0-4, with a 6-game losing streak, and no wins over FBS opponents. However the Blazers were idle last week, so they had an extra week to fix their poor offense and putrid defense. Won't be enough. Tulsa wins.
Oregon @ Michigan- The Wolverines lead the series 3-2, winning in 1948, 1960, and 1973, with the Ducks winning in 2003 and 2007. All but the 2003 game have been played in Ann Arbor. The only thing UM has going for it in this matchup is that they are playing in the Big House, but OU will be too much for the Wolverines. Ducks win big.
Florida vs Georgia (Jacksonville, Fl)- The Bulldogs lead the Gators 55-44-2, winning the last 3, and 6 of the last 7. This game has been played every year since 1926 (except for 1943 due to WWII), and they also played in 1915, 1916, 1919, and 1920. It's been played in Jacksonville every year since 1933, except for 1994-95, when the stadium was being renovated (and this will happen again in 2026-27). The game has been played in Gainesville 3 times, in Athens 4 times, in Savannah twice, Tampa once, and 3 additional times in Jacksonville, including their very 1st meeting in 1915. The Gators have played much better of late, winning 3 of their last 4 games (only loss at Tenn in OT), and I have a feeling this game will be much closer than anyone expects, though I hope I'm wrong. The Dawgs have won 3 consecutive games, and haven't lost to UF since 2020. UGA wins a close one, maybe by 10 or less.
Texas Tech @ Iowa State- The Red Raiders lead the series 13-8, winning the last 2, but the Cyclones have won 5 of the last 7, and 3 of the last 4 played in Ames. ISU is 7-0 and was idle last week, and they need this win to keep pace with BYU. TTU has lost their last 2 games. Cyclones win.
Indiana @ Michigan State- The Spartans lead the series 50-14-2, winning 21 of the last 26 (since 1994), but the Hoosiers have won 2 of the last 4, each in East Lansing. This could very well be Indiana's toughest game so far, as they may be looking ahead to the Wolverines next week, but they should pull away a bit in the 2nd half. Hoosiers win.
Kansas State @ Houston- The Wildcats won 41-0 last year in Manhattan in their one and only prior meeting. I would expect a similar result, but that may not happen, as the Cougars have won 2 of their last 3. If you detect a theme from me- big favorites may turn into close games, or even upsets- you would be correct. It's that time of year where anything can happen. KSU wins, but it'll be closer than you would think.
UCLA @ Nebraska- These teams have played a lot more than I would have expected, with the Cornhuskers holding a 7-6 lead, winning the most recent contest in the 2015 Foster Farms Bowl, but the Bruins have won 2 of the last 3. The Huskers are 4-2 in games played in Lincoln, and they hold a decided edge in the overall records from this season, but NU is only 2-3 in the Big Ten, while UCLA is 1-4. Though the Huskers have lost 2 in a row, and the Bruins are coming off their 1st win since their opener, Nebraska wins easily.
North Carolina @ FSU- The Seminoles have dominated this series, winning 17 and losing 3, with 1 tie (10-10 in 1986), but the Tar Heels have won 2 of the last 4. The 1st meeting was in the 1983 Peach Bowl, won 28-3 by the Noles. UNC is one of the few teams that FSU could beat, but the Tar Heels will prevail.
Arizona @ UCF- The Wildcats and Knights will be playing for the 1st time. Both teams are 3-5/1-4, with Arizona losing their last 4 games, and UCF losing their last 5 games. One of those streaks will have to end here. Go with the home team. Knights win.
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP- The Blue Raiders lead the series 5-1, winning the last 4. These teams are a combined 3-13, and a combined 2-7 in CUSA, so if you're looking for a high quality football game, you won't find it in El Paso. The Miners have a 9-point win over FIU; MTSU has a 9-point win over Kennesaw State the very same week. Again, go with the home team and hope that makes a difference. UTEP wins a close one.
ULM @ Marshall- The Warhawks won the only previous matchup, and get this- it was by a score of 43-42 in the 1987 Division 1-AA Championship Game! ULM shockingly lost their 1st SBC game of the season to South Alabama, and it was by 29 points, so at 5-2/3-1, they are still 1 win away from making it to their 2nd ever bowl. The Thundering Herd is 4-3/2-1, winning 3 of their last 4, and they were idle last week (which, to be honest, I'm not sure if that's an advantage or disadvantage). Marshall wins.
Navy @ Rice- The Owls have fired HC Mike Bloomgren, but it won't matter when they host Navy in Houston. The Midshipmen will need to bounce back from the shellacking they took from Notre Dame last week, and there is no better opponent to do that against than Rice. Each team has won 6 games in the series, with Navy winning the last 4, in addition to prevailing in the 1958 Cotton Bowl. These teams haven't played since 2009. Navy wins.
Wyoming @ New Mexico- The Cowboys and Lobos 1st played in 1930, with Wyoming owning a 40-36 edge, with no ties. The Cowboys have won the last 2, and 5 of the last 7, with UNM winning 2 of the last 3 in Albuquerque. The Lobos have won 3 of their last 4 games, and should win this one as well. UNM wins.
Coastal Carolina @ Troy- The series is tied at 3 wins apiece, with the Chanticleers winning 3 of the last 4, but the Trojans won the most recent meeting, 45-26 in the 2022 SBC Championship Game. Troy's only win is over an FCS squad, so that doesn't bode well for the Trojans. Chants win.
UMass @ Mississippi State- The Bulldogs will run the series record to 3-0 with a win over the Minutemen, and in the process get their 1st FBS win of the season. MSU wins easily.
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys lead the series 3-2, winning the last 2 (2022-23), but they are 1-1 in Stillwater. The Sun Devils got their 2 wins in the 1990s, with OSU getting their other win in 1984. The Cowboys are on a 5-game losing skid, while ASU has won 2 of their last 3, and is 1 win from clinching a bowl berth. Sun Devils win.
Hawaii @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs lead the series 30-24-1, winning 9 of the last 12, including 55-13 in their last meeting in 2022, but the Rainbow Warriors have won 2 of the last 3, and 2 of the last 4 played in Fresno. UH broke a 3-game losing streak last week, but they are 0-3 on the mainland. FSU is 3-1 at home. Bulldogs win.
Louisville @ Clemson- The Tigers lead this series 8-0, with all games played since 2014, and half of the wins by 6 points or less. This is the 1st game of a tough 3-game stretch for Clemson, as the Cardinals have won 2 of their last 3. However, the Tigers will not be denied. Clemson wins.
Texas A&M @ South Carolina- The Aggies lead the series 9-1, with the Gamecocks getting their lone win in 2022 in Columbia, and with all games played since 2014. TAMU is the only team without an SEC loss, but their next 2 SEC games are on the road before they face Texas in the finale, none of which will be easy. The Aggies are playing as well as any team in the country, especially on defense, as no team has scored more than 23 points against them, but the Gamecocks also have an stout defense. The difference is that SC is much more inconsistent on both sides of the ball. If the Gamecocks are on, they can beat anyone. If they're not, they can lose to anyone. So the question is, will they be on? My guess is no, since they are only 2-2 at home. TAMU wins.
Wisconsin @ Iowa- The Badgers lead the series 49-46-2, but the Hawkeyes have won the last 2, and 3 of the last 4 (and the last 2 in Iowa City). Both teams are 5-3/3-2, with Iowa 4-1 at home and UW 2-1 on the road. Flip a coin. Iowa wins.
USC @ Washington- The Trojans lead the series 51-31-4, but the Huskies have won the last 2, and 5 of the last 8. USC also owns a victory in the 1944 Rose Bowl. Both teams are 4-4 overall, with the Trojans 2-4 in the Big Ten, and the Huskies 2-3. This is yet another toss-up of a game. UW wins at home.
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama- The Eagles lead the series 7-2, but the Jaguars have won the last 2 meetings. Both teams are 3-1 in the SBC, with GS being shocked by ODU and USA shocking ULM last week. This should be a fantastic game, but I see the Jaguars winning a close one.
Kentucky @ Tennessee- This is one of the most lopsided series in CFB, as the Volunteers lead 84-26-9 (9 ties!), winning the last 3, and 36 of the last 39. The Wildcats won in 2020, their most recent win in the series, and that was their 1st win in Knoxville since 1984, and only their 3rd since 1964. The teams 1st played in 1893, met again in 1899 and 1901, and have played every year since 1906, excluding 1917-18 for WWI, and 1943 for WWII (they made up for that one by playing twice in 1944). The Vols had a 26-game winning streak in the series from 1985-2010, with the Wildcats winning 3 times since 2011. UK started the season looking like a team that could contend at least for the middle of the pack, but their season unraveled after their win at Ole Miss. UT has stumbled just once, on the road at Arkansas, and should be 8-1 when they travel to Athens to take on UGA Between the Hedges on Nov 16. Vols win big.
Pittsburgh @ SMU- This one just might be the 2nd biggest game of the day. The Mustangs lead the series 3-2-1, winning in 1948 in Pittsburgh, and in the 1983 Cotton Bowl and the 2012 BBVA Compass Bowl. The Panthers got their wins in 1938 and 1942, and the tie was in 1940, with all 3 of those also played in Pittsburgh. That means this is the 1st time these teams will play a true home game for the Ponies. SMU is 7-1/4-0, with their only loss by 3 to BYU at home. Pitt is 7-0/3-0, winning by an average of almost 19 ppg. If the Mustangs can win this one, they should be able to win out, as their toughest remaining game is at Virginia. The Panthers still have games against Clemson and at Louisville. An SMU win could quite possibly create a 3-way tie for the ACC crown at the end of the season, as they, Clemson, and Miami could all wind up undefeated in the ACC (which is what you get when you have division-less conferences with 14+ teams). SMU wins to inject some chaos.
TCU @ Baylor- The Horned Frogs lead this series 59-53-7, winning the last 4, and 8 of the last 9, and the last 4 played in Waco. Both teams have won their last 2 games, but TCU has won 3 of 4 while the Bears had a 3-game losing streak before their 2 wins. This is about the 20th game this week between evenly matched teams. TCU wins based on nothing more than a gut feeling that they're the better team.
Colorado State @ Nevada- The Rams lead the series 14-5, but the teams have split the last 6, with the Wolf Pack winning in the 2015 Arizona Bowl. However, CSU is 5-3 in games played in Reno, and at 3-0 in the MWC, the Rams have a lot at stake in this game. CSU wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment