Paul's Picks Week 8
Welcome Back!
I had another mediocre week, going 37-15, a winning percentage of 71.2%. There are 59 games this week, just a few more than last week, so I sure hope I do a lot better. Games are much harder to predict now that we have moved into conference play, where there are all these rivalries.
Overall, I am 354-107, a percentage of 76.8%, and a decrease of 0.7% from last week. I'm below 80% overall, and won't get back there, but I can still reach my "realistic" goal of 75%.
So far, I am a woeful 2-3 after the early games. Surely it can't get worse. Can it?
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 17
Georgia State @ Marshall- Each team has 1 victory against the other, winning at home, as the Thundering Herd won in 2022 and the Panthers in 2023. Record wise, the teams are relatively even, but Marshall has played much better. The Herd thunders over GSU.
Boston College @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies lead the series 21-11, winning the last 2, and 3 of the last 4, but the series is even over the last 6 meetings. The Hokies also won back-to-back meetings in the ACC Championship Game, in 2007 and 2008, though they lost in the regular season both years. They've also won the last 2 , and 3 of the last 4, played in Blacksburg. Neither team is setting the world on fire, but they are both still in the ACC race at 1-1. This is basically an ACC elimination game, with both teams being off last week. The Eagles are 1-2 on the road this year, but have won 2 of their last 3 overall. VT is 1-1 at home, but have lost 2 of their last 3 overall. These teams are just about as even as possible, with 8 of their combined 12 games being decided by 10 points or less (7 by 7 or less), so 2/3 of the games involving either of these teams have been close. Flip a coin, but go with VT over BC at home.
Friday, October 18
FSU @ Duke- When I looked up the series record, it was even worse than I expected, with the Seminoles leading 20-0 (actually 22-0, but 2 wins were vacated), including in the 2013 ACC Championship Game. But it's worse than that; only once has the game been closer than 18 points, and that was a 17-10 loss by the Blue Devils in 2017, a season when both teams finished 7-6. In fact, the average margin of victory has been just over 32 ppg (32.09). But if Duke were ever going to beat FSU, this needs to be the year. The Blue Devils are 5-1/1-1, had a week off last week, but are coming off their 1st loss of the season, by 10 to Ga Tech. The Noles are only 1-5/1-4, losing 2 in a row, but were also off last week. They also lost to GT, but by only 3 in the season opener in Ireland. Duke is the better team, and should win, but as you know, that's no guarantee (see Vandy vs Alabama or one of a million other examples). I'm not confident about it, but the Blue Devils win at home to claim their 1st victory over the Seminoles.
Oregon @ Purdue- Did you know that these teams have actually played before? And not just once, but 3 times! The Ducks lead 2-1, winning in 2008 and 2009, with the Boilermakers winning the 1st contest in 1979. This will be the 3rd time they will meet in West Lafayette, with only the 2009 game played in Eugene. Purdue just may be the worst P5 team in the nation, but UO is coming off a huge, emotional win over Ohio State. As bad as the Boilermakers are, the Ducks better be wary of an upset, or they just may get steamed by the Boilermakers. Oregon wins.
Oklahoma State @ BYU- The Cowboys lead the series 3-0, winning in the 1974 Fiesta Bowl, the 1976 Tangerine Bowl, and in Stillwater last year by a score of 40-34, so this will be the 1st time they play in Provo. The Cougars are having their best start since 2020, when they won their 1st 9 games, and are coming off a big win over Arizona. OSU has lost 3 in a row, but had last week off to try to get back on a winning track. This may be closer than expected, but BYU wins.
Fresno State @ Nevada- The Bulldogs lead the Wolf Pack 32-22-1, winning the last 3, and 5 of the last 7, but have only 3 wins in the last 8 played in Reno. Nevada got a huge upset win over Oregon State last week, and have generally played better this year, with 3 of their 4 losses by 5 points or less, and they are 2-2 at home. FS has 2 straight losses, and are 1-2 on the road. I think the Wolf Pack will devour the Bulldogs. Nevada wins.
Saturday, October 19
Miami @ Louisville- The Hurricanes lead the series 11-4-1, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Cardinals won 38-31 last year, and have won 4 of the last 6, including in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl. The Canes were 8-0-1 in this series from 1933-1985, and won again in 2004 to make it 9-0-1, but have only won twice since 2006. This year, Miami is undefeated and coming out of their off week, while UL eked by UVA last week to break a modest 2-game losing streak. This will be close into the 2nd half, but the Canes will pull away to win by 10+.
Virginia @ Clemson- This is a very lopsided series, with the Tigers leading 40-8-1, as they won the 1st 29 meetings between 1955 and 1989, but from 1990-2004, the Cavaliers went 8-6-1 against the Tigers. Clemson has won the last 5 in a row, including in the 2019 ACC Championship Game (62-17!). Once again, the Tigers are the class of the ACC, and while the Hoos are improved, they aren't going to be able to hang with a Clemson team that has won 5 straight by an average of 29.4 ppg. Tigers win big in Death Valley.
Nebraska @ Indiana- It's time to find out which of these teams will be a contender, and which is just a pretender. I was surprised to find that the Hoosiers lead this series 10-9-3, but that's mostly on the strength of going 9-0-1 against the Cornhuskers from 1941-1959. The Huskers began the series with a 3-0-2 run from 1936-1940, and were 4-0 from 1975-1978, but are only 2-1 this century, winning in 2016 and 2022, and losing in 2019. NU hasn't lost in Bloomington since 1945, and are 3-2-1 overall there, as the game has been played 16 times in Lincoln. IU is having a magical season, as they are 6-0/3-0, with all wins by at least 14 points. The Huskers are 5-1/2-1, with only a loss to Illinois at home to tarnish their season. So far. Hoosiers win a close one.
Auburn @ Missouri- Auburn leads this Tiger fight 3-1, winning in 2022, 2017, and in the 2013 SEC Championship Game, with the CoMo Tigers winning in the 1973 Sun Bowl. The War Eagles are having a miserable season, with 3 losses by 10 points or less, and one by 18, as they are still winless in the SEC. Mizzou is 5-1/1-1, and desperately needs this win to stay in the SEC race. The Plainsmen will probably give them a run for their money, but like in other games, can't sustain it for 4 quarters. Missouri wins.
Wisconsin @Northwestern- The Badgers lead this series, that began in 1890, by a 62-38-5 count. The Badgers have won 5 of the last 8, but Northwestern won 24-10 last year, and have won 2 of the last 3 played in Evanston. The Wildcats broke a 2-game losing streak with a big win over Maryland last week, and they'll be seeking to win 2 in a row for the first time since they won their last 4 games of the 2023 season. UW has gotten back on track after 2 midseason losses, and now sit at 4-2/2-1, and a win here would keep them alive in the Big Ten. Badgers win.
UCLA @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have lost 2 straight after winning their 1st 4 games, and both were Big Ten contests. The Bruins, though, have lost 5 in a row, and are 1-2 on the road, winning at Hawaii in their season opener. Rutgers wins this first ever meeting on the gridiron. Side note: with Rutgers playing CFB since 1869, and the Bruins since 1919, I wonder if any 2 teams have been playing longer but have never met?
Wake Forest @ UConn- The Demon Deacons lead the series 2-1, winning in 2006 and 2007 (a home-and-home series), and the Huskies winning in 2003 (in Winston-Salem). WF may not be the worst P5 team, but they're not far from it as they only have wins over and FCS squad and over NC State by 4 points. UConn, on the other hand, has won 3 consecutive games after a 1-2 start to the season, and their 4 wins is already 1 more than they had all last year. Huskies win.
Arizona State @ Cincinnati- The Bearcats have won both meetings, with both being in Tempe, but those were in 1954 and 1976, so it's been a few minutes since they last played. The Sun Devils are 5-1/2-1, with an 8-point loss to TTU, and wins over Kansas and Utah by a combined 12 points. UC is 4-2/2-1, with their own loss to Texas Tech, this one by 3 points, and a loss to Pitt. These teams appear to be evenly matched, so I'll go with the Bearcats at home.
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers lead the series 2-1, with the road team winning each game. CCU is 4-2, but 1-1 in the SBC with an 8-point win over ODU and a 32-point loss to JMU. The Ragin' Cajuns are 5-1, and 2-0 in the conference, and with the SBC West 3-0 against the East, I'll go with UL to win.
East Carolina @ Army- The Pirates lead this series 8-0, with all games taking place between 1995 and 2004. ECU (3-3/1-1) presents the 1st real test to the Black Knights, as even though Army is 6-0 overall and 5-0 in the AAC, none of their defeated opponents even has a .500 record, as they have combined to go 8-22 (8-17 without their losses to Army factored in). If Army can get through ECU, they should be 8-0 when they travel to Denton to take on North Texas on Nov 9. I think the Black Knights win, but the Pirates will keep it within 2 TDs, if not closer.
South Carolina @ Oklahoma- Like so many other matchups in this new conference landscape, this will be the 1st time these teams have ever met in football. The Gamecocks have played well at times (at UK, vs LSU, at Bama), but have also played less well at others (vs ODU, vs Ole Miss), but they stand at 3-3 overall, and 1-3 in the SEC. This is a team capable of beating any team in the conference, but also capable of losing to a team from the Sun Belt. The Sooners are only slightly better, at 4-2/1-2, with their best win over Tulane (and... Auburn?). If SC can hold OU to less than 27 points, they'll win. I think they will. South Carolina wins in a mild upset.
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan- These teams have been playing since 1902, and the Chippewas have the 64-31-6 edge, winning 4 of the last 5, but the Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 played in Ypsilanti. Both teams are 1-1 in the MAC, but the Eagles have been better overall. EMU wins over CMU at home.
Tulsa @ Temple- The Golden Hurricane lead the series 5-3, winning the last 3, but it's 3-3 since 2014 (Tulsa also won in 1987 & 1988). These are 2 of the worst teams in the AAC, but at least each has an FBS win. Each team was also off last week, so maybe they have improved. Tulsa wins. Maybe...
Alabama @ Tennessee- A few weeks ago, it looked like this was going to be a game between unbeaten teams. Instead, each already has a loss, and an SEC loss at that. And that makes this an elimination game for the SEC title, but maybe not for the CFP, though the loser won't be able to afford any more losses. The Crimson Tide lead this storied series, which has been played on the 3rd Saturday in October every year since 1928 (but was also played then in 1914), 59-39-7, and they've won 16 of the last 17, but the Volunteers won the last time it was played in Knoxville. This series actually began in 1901, with a 6-6 tie, and after skipping 1902, was played every year through 1914, except for 1910 and 1911. The only other time they didn't play was in 1943 due to WWII. Both teams are coming off their worst 2-game stretch in a long while, with the Vols losing to Arkansas and eking by Florida, and the Tide losing to Vandy and eking by SC. The difference has been that UT has been let down by their offense, while Bama has been let down by their defense. I'm not sure either team can stop the other, so I expect a high scoring game, but maybe not as much as the 52-49 score in 2022. Vols win, with a score somewhere around 33-30.
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech- The Fighting Irish will be traveling to Atlanta to take on the Yellow Jackets, but they won't be playing in Bobby Dodd Stadium. Instead, they will play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the home of the Atlanta Falcons. These teams played every year from 1922-1929, then again from 1938-45, then in 1953 and 1959, and then yearly again 1967-70, 1974-81, and finally sporadically from 1997, including that year, 2006-07, 2015, and 2020-21. ND leads 30-6-1, winning the last 3, but the Jackets got a win in the 1999 Gator Bowl. GT hasn't won this game in Atlanta in 1976, but their 3-3 tie in 1980 helped propel Georgia to the #1 spot and the eventual National Championship over that same Irish team in the 1981 Sugar Bowl. The Jackets are 5-2, with a 2-game winning streak, but they have a 12-point loss to Louisville, a team the Irish beat by 7 a week later. GT is very capable of winning this game, but ND has played so well since their week 2 loss to NIU. Irish win a close one.
Michigan @ Illinois- The Wolverines have dominated this series, begun in 1898, by a 72-23-2 score, winning the last 6 (since 2010), including the last 2 played in Champaign. The Fighting Illini are off to a 5-1 start, already matching last season's 5 wins. Both teams are 2-1 in the Big Ten, so like the Alabama-UT game I talked about above, this is very likely an elimination game for the Big Ten Championship, though not for the CFP. UM was off last week, so perhaps they have fixed their passing woes, and with a healthy QB in Jack Tuttle, perhaps can score enough to win. But I think the Illini will pull the upset. Illinois wins, thanks to defense.
NC State @ California- Both teams have been rather mediocre this season, combining for a 6-7 record overall, and 0-6 in the ACC, with the Golden Bears on a 3-game losing streak, and the Wolfpack having lost 2 in a row, and 3 of the last 4. Cal is the only team so far to lose to FSU. That's enough for me. NC State wins in this 1st ever meeting.
Houston @ Kansas- This is a battle to stay out of last place. The Jayhawks have won all 4 games in this series, in 1994 and 2022 in Houston, in 1995 in Lawrence, and in the 2005 Fort Worth Bowl in, you guessed it, Fort Worth. KU has been a hard luck team, losing 4 games by 6 points or less, and their 5 losses are by an average of 5.6 ppg, as they still don't have an FBS win. The Cougars have wins over Rice and at TCU, but 3 of their 4 losses were by at least 20 points each (lost 16-12 to Oklahoma). Jayhawks win at home.
Hawaii @ Washington State- The Rainbow Warriors actually lead ths series 3-2, but their wins came in 1926, 2008, and 2009 (the only time played on the mainland, in Seattle), with the losses in 1930 and 1999. The Cougars are 5-1, losing only to Boise State; UH is 2-4, with 2 wins over FCS teams. Wazzu wins on the Palouse.
Texas State @ ODU- This is the 1st time the Bobcats and Monarchs will meet. TSU is 4-2/2-0, with losses to Arizona State (by 3) and Sam Houston (by 1), but this will be only their 2nd true road game of the season, and the 1st time they leave the state of Texas in 2024. In fact, they haven't left Texas since their next-to-last game of the 23 season, even playing their bowl in Dallas. ODU is 2-4/1-1, but have played a very difficult schedule so far, as they are playing only their 3rd home game. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier. Bobcats win.
Ohio @ Miami- This series began in 1908, and the Redhawks lead 55-42-2, winning 3 of the last 5, including 30-16 last year, but the Bobcats have won 2 of the last 3, and 6 of the last 8 played in Oxford. Miami had a rough start to the season, but have won 2 of their last 3, and this will be only their 3rd home game of the season (1-1 at home). Ohio is 4-2 overall, and 2-0 in the MAC, but those were wins over weak teams (South Alabama is best win). Miami wins as they creep closer to a 2nd straight MAC CG appearance.
Kent State @ Bowling Green- The Falcons lead this series 61-24-6 (they've been playing since 1920, and playing annually since 1934, except for 1943-45, and in 2004, for some reason), winning 49-19 last year, but the Golden Flashes have won 5 of the last 6, including the last 3 played in Bowling Green. BGSU (2-4/1-1) has fallen far short of expectations so far, but KSU is winless, but did only lose to Ball State by 2 last week. Falcons win.
Western Michigan @ Buffalo- The Broncos lead the series 8-2, winning the last 3 (since 2016). Both teams are 2-0 in the MAC, but the Bulls have beaten NIU and Toledo (2 of the better teams) while WMU has beaten Ball state and Akron (2 of the worse teams). Buffalo has a fairly easy path to the MAC CG, if they can avoid stumbling into an upset loss. UB wins.
Toledo @ Northern Illinois- The loser of this game will likely be eliminated in the MAC title chase, as they would lose the tiebreaker edge to both the winner of this game and to Buffalo (who beat both). The Rockets lead the series 34-17 winning the last 2. The Huskies started the season great, with a win over Notre Dame in week 2, but after losing 2 straight to Buffalo (by 3) and at NC State, have won 2 in a row over UMass and BGSU. Toledo has lost 2 of their last 3, with their losses at WKU and at Buffalo (by 15), but they own a 24-point win over Mississippi State. This should be a fantastic game! I'm going with the Huskies to win at home.
UAB @ USF- The Blazers lead this series 2-1, winning in 2003 and 2023 (the former in Tampa), and losing in 2004 in Birmingham. UAB is 0-5 against FBS teams, losing by an average of 28.8 ppg. The Bulls are only 2-4, but their losses are to Alabama, Miami, Tulane, and Memphis, teams with a combined 18-4 record. USF will douse the Blazers.
Charlotte @ Navy- The Midshipmen won 14-0 last year in Charlotte, which is the only time they have met and played. The 49ers are having a decent season as at 3-3, have already matched last year's win total, and at 2-0 in the AAC, have already matched last ear's win total there, too. Navy, though, is 5-0/3-0, with an average margin of victory of 17 ppg, and they own a win over AAC preseason favorite Memphis. Midshipmen win.
FAU @ UTSA- The Owls lead the series 3-1, but the Roadrunners won 36-10 last year. FAU is only 2-4, with their only FBS win over FIU (who just lost to UTEP, for Pete's sake!). But UTSA isn't any better, as they are also 2-4, and just lost to Rice. I guess I'll go with the home team. Meep! Meep! Roadrunners win.
Rice @ Tulane- In a series that started in 1916, the Owls hold the edge at 20-16-1, winning 3 of the last 4 (since 2011), and 5 of the last 7 (since 2008), but the Green Wave won 30-28 last year. Tulane is a healthy 4-2, and still hoping to snag that G5 CFP spot, and they're on a 3-game winning streak. Rice is is only 2-4, and just broke a 3-game losing streak with a 2-point win over UTSA. The Owls may have turned a corner after their off week (or not...), but they won't beat the Wave on the road. Tulane swamps the Owls.
USC @ Maryland- One of the consequences of the most recent realignment into much larger conferences than ever before is that many teams that have never met before are now sharing a league. This is an example of that, as the Terrapins and Trojans have never played, not even in a bowl game. The Terps are a decent 3-3, but they have lost 2 in a row, and just got blasted by Northwestern to fall to 0-3 in the Big Ten. USC is also 3-3, have also lost 2 in a row, and are 1-3 in the conference, with their 3 losses by a combined 13 points. Trojans win, but I bet it's close.
Colorado @ Arizona- The Buffaloes lead the series 16-10, and have won 2 of the last 4, but most of their lead in the series is courtesy of starting 12-0 between 1931 and 1985, as the Wildcats lead 10-4 since 1986. Arizona is only 3-3, and 1-2 in the Big XII, meaning they are the longest of long shots to still make the CFP. The Buffs are 4-2/2-1, and very much in the thick of things. Both teams have a loss to Kansas State, with the Cats losing by 24 in mid-September, and CU losing by 3 last weekend. Buffs win over Zona in the desert.
Baylor @ Texas Tech- These are 2 old Southwest Conference (and Big XII) rivals, and the Bears lead 41-40-1, winning 2 of the last 3, and 4 of the last 6, but the Red Raiders won 39-14 last year in this series that was 1st played in 1929. TTU is off to their best start in years, as at 5-1/3-0, they are co-leaders of the conference. Baylor is only 2-4, and at 0-3, are bringing up the rear in the Big XII. The Red Raiders have won 4 in a row while the Bears have lost 3 consecutive games. Both trends will continue as Texas Tech will win and even up the series.
Wyoming @ San Jose State- The Cowboys lead the series 7-6, but the Spartans have won the last 2, and 5 of the last 6. Wyoming's only win is over Air Force at home, as they have lost 7 of the last 9 played outside of Laramie (won their bowl last year, and won at Nevada as well). SJSU is 4-2, but is coming off a 7-point loss to Colorado State, but they've won their last 6 home games. Spartans win.
James Madison @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles lead the series 8-2, with the Dukes winning the 1st meeting in Harrisonburg in 1985, and last year, also in Harrisonburg. The year, GS is leading the SBC East at 2-0, the only undefeated team in the division, but JMU, and 3 other teams, are hot on their tail at 1-1. The Eagles are 4-2 overall, and 2-1 at home (lost to Boise State) while the Dukes are 5-1 overall, and 2-1 on the road (lost at ULM). I expect a close game that will go down to the wire, but I think JMU gets their 2nd straight win in the series.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State- The Bulldogs lead the series 9-8, winning 2 of the last 3, and 5 of the last 8, but the Aggies won 51-10 last year. MSU won 2 of the 1st 3 played in the series, from 1912 to 1915 (played in Houston once, then Dallas twice), with TAMU winning in 1937 (in Tyler), but the next meeting was a Bulldog win in the 2000 Independence Bowl by a score of 43-41. Since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012, the series is tied 6-6, with the Bulldogs winning 4 of 6 played in Starkville. TAMU has won 5 in a row since a season opening loss at home to Notre Dame, and they lead the SEC by a half game over Texas and LSU. MSU is in the running for worst P5 team, as they have lost 5 straight, but they played both Texas and Georgia tough on the road. I think they will give the Aggies a tougher test than they expect, but TAMU will prevail anyway.
New Mexico @ Utah State- The Aggies lead this series 17-13, winning the last 7, but they are only 1-5 on the season, with no FBS wins. The Lobos are 2-4, winning their last 2, and just may have turned the corner and learned how to win under new HC Bronco Mendenhall. UNM wins.
LSU @ Arkansas- These teams first played in 1901, and met in the Cotton Bowl twice: a 0-0 tie in 1947, and a 14-7 LSU win in 1966. The Tigers lead the series 44-23-2, and since the Razorbacks joined the SEC in 1992, lead 21-11, winning the last 2, and 7 of the last 8. The Bayou Bengals were thought to be dead and buried after their opening loss to USC in Las Vegas, but they've reeled off 5 consecutive wins to thrust themselves back into the spotlight. Arkansas was thought to be dead and buried before the season even started, and HC Sam Pittman was firmly on the hot seat, but they are now 4-2, with a win over Tennessee, and a 4-point loss to Texas A&M. Both teams have good defenses, but LSU has the much better offense. Tigers win, but if the Hogs can get some turnovers, they could pull off the upset, especially since this is in Fayetteville.
Ball State @ Vanderbilt- This is a chance for the Commodores to burnish their record, as a win in this 1st ever matchup would get them to 5-2. The Cardinals got their 1st FBS win last week, over a winless Kent State. Unless the Dores completely spit the bit, they should win this easily. Vandy wins big.
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles lead the series 10-3, even winning in the 2005 New Orleans Bowl. The Red Wolves got their wins in 1960 (1st meeting), 1977, and 44-37 last year. USM has been awful this year, with no wins over an FBS foe; ASU is 3-3, with all 3 losses expected. Red Wolves win.
Georgia @ Texas- This is the game of the day! These teams have only played 5 times over the years, with the Longhorns winning 4: in the 1949 Orange Bowl, 1957 in Atlanta, 1958 in Austin, and in the 2019 Sugar Bowl. UGA's lone win came in the 1984 Cotton Bowl (What time is it? I don't know, but in Texas it's still 10 to 9!). Interestingly, they will play in Athens for the 1st time ever next year. Texas is ranked #1 in the AP Poll, and deservedly so. They have blasted every team they have played, winning by an average of 36.83 ppg, with their closest win being by 19 at Michigan (which will remain their only foray outside of the state of Texas until they travel to Nashville next week). The Dawgs have already suffered a loss, and have looked just very good, instead of elite. Their long 27 game home winning streak will stay intact for a while, as their next home game isn't until Nov 16 against the other UT. I'll be pulling for an upset, but I don't think the Bulldogs can hang with Texas. Longhorns win.
UCF @ Iowa State- I'm shocked (Shocked, I say!) to find out that these 2 teams have never met on a gridiron before. The Cyclones are 6-0 for the 1st time since 1938, when they started 7-0, and finished 7-1-1. The Knights are 3-3, which is exactly where they were last year after 6 games, but this team "feels" better than last year's team. Regardless, ISU wins.
Kansas State @ West Virginia- The Wildcats lead the series 7-6, winning the last 2, but the Mountaineers have won 5 of the last 7. WVU is only 3-3, but they are 3-1 at home, and 2-1 in the Big XII. KSU is 5-1 overall, 2-1 on the road, but tied with the Mountaineers at 2-1 in the conference (but with a non-conference win over Arizona). Wildcats win.
Iowa @ Michigan State- The Hawkeyes lead the series 25-22-2, winning the last 2, but the Spartans got the win in the 2015 Big Ten Championship Game. This year, Iowa is 4-2/2-1, with losses to Iowa State and at Ohio State. MSU is 3-3/1-2, but on a 3-game losing streak. That losing streak will stretch to 4 games as the Hawkeyes pummel the Spartans.
North Texas @ Memphis- This is the game when we find out if the Mean Green are contenders in the AAC, or just a flash in the pan. The Tigers lead the series 18-4, winning the last 3, including in the 2003 New Orleans Bowl, but those are the only 3 games played since 1980. Memphis is 5-1, with their only loss to an undefeated Navy. UNT is also 5-1, with their only loss to another 5-1 team: Texas Tech. The Mean Green have won 2 of the last 3 played in Memphis, but they won't win this time. Tigers win a close one.
Kentucky @ Florida- The Gators have dominated this series 53-21, even winning 37 of 38 from 1980-2017, and 31 in a row from 1987-2017, but the Wildcats have won the last 3, and 4 of the last 6, including 2 of the last 3 played in Gainesville. UK began the series with a 12-4 run from 1917-1956. The Wildcats have been up and down this season, winning at Ole Miss and losing by 1 to UGA, but also losing to Vandy and South Carolina at home. UF has been even more erratic, getting blown out by Miami and Texas A&M at home, but winning comfortably at Miss State and vs UCF, and taking Tennessee to OT. This game could go either way, but I have (very slightly) more faith in the Cats. UK wins.
SMU at Stanford- The Cardinal have won the only previous meeting, and it was a doozy: 7-0 in the 1936 Rose Bowl. And now they are in the same conference! The Mustangs are 5-1/2-0, and playing very well. Stanford is only 2-4/1-2, and have lost 3 straight. SMU wins.
Colorado State @ Air Force- The Falcons lead the series 39-21-1, winning the last 7, but the Rams are the much better team this year, as AF has yet to win an FBS game. CSU wins.
UNLV @ Oregon State- The Rebels lead the series 3-2, but the Beavers have won the last 2 (2002 and 2009), with all of UNLV's wins occurring between 1983 and 1991.These are 2 quality teams, with the Rebels at 5-1 (only loss to Syracuse by 3 in OT), and OSU at 4-2 (losses to Oregon, and at Nevada last week). The Beavers will be looking to bounce back after their loss, but UNLV should win a high scoring affair.
TCU @ Utah- Both teams have been disappointing so far in 2024, with the Utes at 4-2/1-2, and the Horned Frogs at 3-3/1-2. Utah leads the series 5-3, with all games played between 1996 and 2010, but TCU has won the last 2. The Utes have lost 2 in a row, while the Frogs have lost 3 of their last 4. Who knows who will win this game. Let's flip a coin and call it a day. Utah wins at home.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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