Paul's Picks Week 9
Welcome Back!
I had another mediocre week, going 42-17, a winning percentage of 71.2%. There are 57 games this week, just a few less than last week, so I sure hope I do a lot better. Games are much harder to predict now that we have moved into conference play, where there are all these rivalries.
Overall, I am 396-124, a percentage of 76.2%, and a decrease of 0.6% from last week. I'm below 80% overall, and won't get back there, but I can still reach my "realistic" goal of 75%.
So far, I am 2-2 after the early games, but in my defense, I would have had to have traveled back in time from the future to have foreseen Kennesaw State beating Liberty.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 24
Georgia Southern @ ODU- The Eagles lead the series 3-1, but the Monarchs won 20-17 last year, and all the games have been relatively close (biggest MOV is 14 points). GS is 3-0 in the SBC, and 2 of the 3 wins were of the convincing variety. ODU has won 2 straight by a combined 17 points, and has generally played well against a tough schedule. I'm tempted to go with the Monarchs at home, but give me the Eagles in a close one.
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers lead the series 43-32-3, winning 18 of the last 22, but the Orange won 28-13 last year. Syracuse hasn't won in Pittsburgh since 2001, losing the last 10 played here. These teams have played every year since 1955, with an additional 10 meetings between 1916 and 1930. The teams are a combined 11-1 this year and are a combined 4-1 in the ACC. Pitt will be looking to stay undefeated so they can keep pace with Miami and Clemson, but the Orange need this win as well, for if they win out, it would include a win over the Canes in their last game of the year. This should be a highly competitive game. Panthers come out on top.
Friday, October 25
Louisville @ Boston College- The Cardinals lead the series 9-7, winning 3 of the last 5, including 56-28 last year, but the Eagles have won 4 of the last 7, and the last 3 played in Chestnut Hill. Both teams are 4-3, and each has 2 losses in the ACC. BC has lost their last 2 games, and UL has lost 3 of their last 4, so neither has any momentum. Cardinals win.
Boise State @ UNLV- This is the game of the year in the MWC! The Broncos lead the series 9-3, winning the last 7, including in the 2023 MWC Championship Game, 44-20. In fact, all 3 of UNLV's wins came in the 1970s. Whoever loses this game will open the door for Colorado State and/or San Diego State to slip into 2nd place- and they don't play each other this year. The Rebels are 6-1, losing by 3 to Syracuse at home. BSU is 5-1, with their loss by 3 on the road at Oregon. Wow! Tough to choose, but though my heart is with UNLV (I like what HC Barry Odom has done there). I think the Broncos pull out a win, probably on a late FG.
Rutgers @ USC- This is a game between 2 teams in free fall, as each has lost their last 3 in a row. Both teams desperately need this win to have any chance at bowl eligibility. Both teams have been playing football since the 1800s (Rutgers started play in 1869, USC in 1888), but they have never met on the field of play until now, not even in a bowl game. The Scarlet Knights have 2 wins by 3 points each, and 2 losses by a combined 10 points, but they were also blown out by Wisconsin. all 4 of USC's losses were by 7 points or less (a combined 14 points), and only their win over LSU was by less than 17 points. The Trojans are 2-1 at home; Rutgers is 1-1 on the road. USC wins.
Saturday, October 26
Nebraska @ Ohio State- These 2 storied programs have only met 10 times, with the Buckeyes holdin a 9-1 edge, but the biggest surprise is that they have never met in a bowl game. The Cornhuskers got their lone win in 2011 in Lincoln, and OSU has won the last 7 (also had 2 wins in the 1950s). NU suffered their 2nd loss last week, getting blasted by Indiana. The Buckeyes are also coming off a loss (to Oregon), but that was 2 weeks ago. OSU wins, probably by a lot.
Notre Dame @ Navy (East Rutherford, NJ)- Most people expected one of these teams to be undefeated entering this game, but absolutely no one would have picked Navy to be that team. The Midshipmen are 6-0, winning by an average of 19.83 ppg. The Fighting Irish have that inexplicable loss to NIU in week 2, but otherwise have dominated their competition, with only their win against Louisville by less than 10 points (4 of 6 wins by 18+ points). In one of the most lopsided series in all of CFB, the Irish lead 80-13-1winning the last 6. Notre Dame also had an astounding 43 game win streak in the series, from 1964-2006, but the Midshipmen have won 4 times since then, including the last time it was played in New Jersey, in 2010. I really want to pick Navy to win, but I just can't do it. Irish win.
Washington @ Indiana- The Hoosiers actually lead this series 2-1, winning in 1976 and 1978, with the Huskies winning in 2003. This will be the 2nd time the game will be played in Bloomington (1978 was the 1st). This year, UW is only 4-3, and 2-2 in their new conference, while IU is 7-0/4-0, and one of the surprise teams in the entire nation. The Hoosiers have scored 41+ in 6 of their 7 wins, and their average MOV is 35 ppg. The Huskies have lost 2 of their last 3, and are 0-2 on the road. Indiana wins.
Oklahoma @ Ole Miss- The Rebels won the only previous meeting, 27-25 in the 1999 Independence Bowl, 1 year before the Sooners won the 2000 National Championship. Ole Miss is 5-2, but have lost 2 of theoir last 3. OU is 4-3, but on a 2-game losing streak. The Sooners have been miserable on offense, but OK on defense. The Rebs have been just OK on offense against SEc competition, but their defense has been good. Mississippi wins.
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech- As of this writing, it is uncertain who will start at QB for the Yellow Jackets, but my guess id that starter Haynes King will be unavailable for a 2nd straight game, and that backup Zach Pyron will start. The Hokies lead the series 11-8, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Jackets have won 4 of the last 6 (since 2016), and won won 28-27 in their last meeting, in 2022. Additionally, GT has won 4 of the last 5 played in Blacksburg. With the uncertainty at QB for the Jackets, I'll have to go with VT for the win at home.
North Carolina @ Virginia- These teams 1st played in 1892, and the Tar Heels lead the series 66-59-4, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Cavaliers have won 5 of the last 7, including 31-27 last year. UNC is in free fall, losing 4 in a row after a 3-0 start, while the Wahoos are on their own 2-game losing streak after starting 4-1. At some point the Heels win win again, but it won't be this week. Hoos win.
Buffalo @ Ohio- The Bobcats lead the series 18-11, and have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 5 (since 2019). The Bulls are 4-3/2-1, and have been wildly inconsistent, but own wins over Toledo and NIU. Ohio is also 4-3/2-1, with wins over CMU and Akron. Both teams are coming off of a loss, but the Bobcats have won 6 straight games in this series played in Athens. Ohio wins.
Charlotte @ Memphis- The Tigers won 44-38 last year, the only time these 2 teams have met on the gridiron. This year, the 49ers are 3-4, but 2-1 in the AAC, with their only loss to an undefeated Navy (by 34). Memphis is 6-1, but 2-1 in the conference, with their loss also to Navy (by 14). Tigers win easily.
Tulane @ North Texas- The Green Wave lead 2-0, winning in 2013 and 35-28 last year. This will be the 1st time these teams play in Denton, where the Mean Green have won 4 consecutive games. Each team is 6-1, but Tulane is 3-0 in the AAC and UNT is 2-1 (loss to Memphis by 8 last week). The Mean Green have been a pleasant surprise in HC Eric Morris's 2nd year, already surpassing last year's 5 wins, but the Green wave are one of the better G5 teams. tulane wins a shootout.
Arkansas @ Mississippi State- The Razorbacks lead the series 18-15-1, but the Bulldogs have won the last 2. The Hogs are 4-3, and 2 of their 3 losses were by a combined 11 points. MSU is only 1-6/0-4, but have been competitive against the SEC's top teams. Hogs win, but it could be closer than expected.
Georgia State @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers have dominated the Panthers to the tune of a 10-0 lead in the series, with 9 of the 10 wins by at least 14 points. But App State is only 2-4 overall, and 0-3 in the SBC. GSU is is also 2-4/0-3, so this game will decide who ends up in last place in the SBC East. ASU wins.
Central Michigan @ Miami- The Redhawks lead the series 16-13-1, winning the last 4 (since 2016), including in the 2019 MAC CG, and the last 2 played in Oxford, but the Chippewas have won 5 of the last 10 (since 2005). Miami has started to settle down, as they've won their last 2, and 3 of their last 4. CMU has lost 2 in a row, and 4 of their last 5. Redhawks win.
Temple @ East Carolina- The Pirates lead the series 10-9, winning the last 3. The Owls are only 2-5, but are coming off a win over Tulsa at home (0-3 on the road). ECU is 3-4/1-2, but just fired HC Mike Houston, so this will be interim Blake Harrell's 1st game as a HC. Sometimes, teams get a bump when they execute sa coaching change, but most interims struggle. However, ECU wins at home.
Texas Tech @ TCU- The Red Raiders lead this series 33-30-3 (lots of 3's!), winning 35-28 last year, but the Horned Frogs have won 4 of the last 5. TTU is 5-2/3-1, but lost to Baylor by 24 last week. TCU is 4-3, but is coming off a 13-7 win at Utah. The Frogs are only 1-2 at home, while the Red Raiders are 4-1 at home. Texas Tech wins.
Illinois @ Oregon- These teams have met 3 times before, with the Fighting Illini winning in 1970, and the Ducks winning in 1993 and 1995. These teams are a combined 13-1, and 7-1 in the Big Ten. If this were being played in Champaign, I would think the Illini would have a chance. But with this in Eugene, OU will pull away in the 2nd half to win by 14-21 points.
Missouri @ Alabama- This is an interesting matchup, as the Crimson Tide have lost 2 of their last 3 games, but both were on the road (9-game home winning streak), and the Tigers have a good record (6-1/2-1), but have looked less than stellar in the SEC, with their 2 wins by a combined 7 points. The Tide lead the series 5-2, winning the last 5, including in the 2014 SEC CG, but Mizzou won in the 1968 Gator Bowl, and in 1975 in Birmingham. Bama has won in 1978 (Columbia)2012 (Columbia), 2018 (Tuscaloosa), and in 2020 (Columbia). I just don't see the Tide losing 3 out of 4. Bama wins.
BYU @ UCF- The Cougars lead the series 2-1, winning in 2011 in Provo, and in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl, with the Knights winning in 2014 in Orlando. UCF has lost 4 consecutive games, while BYU is 7-0. Cougars win.
Northwestern @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes lead this series 54-28-3, winning the last 3. The Wildcats are 3-4, losing 3 of their last 4, and while they have played well on defense, have struggled to score consistently on offense. Iowa is a disappointing 4-3, with a much improved offense, but their defense has taken a step (or 2) back. Hawkeyes win at home.
Maryland @ Minnesota- The Terrapins lead the series 4-3, but the Golden Gophers have won 2 of the last 3, including in 2021, when they last met. Since the Terps joined the Big Ten, the series is tied at 3 wins apiece, with Maryland also winning in 1977 in the Hall of Fame Bowl. Maryland is 2-1 in Minneapolis. The Gophers are 4-3/2-2, winning their last 2 contests, and they had an off week last week. The Terps are also 4-3, but are only 1-3 in the Big Ten, but are coming off of a win. Both teams have a win over USC- Minnesota by 7 and Maryland by 1. Gophers win.
Rice @ UConn- This will be their 2nd ever meeting, with the Huskies winning 38-31 last year. The Owls have taken a step back this year. Over the last 6 full seasons, Rice won 1 game, then 2 games, then 3 games, then 4, then 5, and then 6 last year, but at 2-5, they are unlikely to get to 6 wins, much less improve for a 7th consecutive year. At 4-3, UConn has already exceeded their 3 wins from last year. Huskies win.
Wake Forest @ Stanford- This series is tied at 1-1, with each team winning at home in 2008 and 2010. This year, the Demon Deacons are 3-4/1-2, but have won 2 of their last 3, and are 2-0 on the road. The Cardinal are 2-5/1-3, and are on a 4-game losing streak, and are only 1-3 at home. WF wins.
Oklahoma State @ Baylor- The Cowboys lead the series 23-19, winning 3 of the last 4, but the Bears won in the 2021 Big XII Championship Game. OSU is only 3-4, losing their last 4 games, while Baylor is also 3-4, but 1-3 in the conference with a win over Texas Tech last week. This game could go a long way in deciding who finishes in last place. Baylor wins at home.
Southern Miss @ James Madison- This is yet another 1st time matchup, as these teams have never met in football before. The Golden Eagles are only 1-6/0-3, and just parted ways with HC Will Hall, who will be replaced on an interim basis by Reed Stringer. Their main problem has been defense, as they have allowed 44+ points 3 times, and 31+ points 5 times. The Dukes are 5-2/1-2, but have lost 2 of their last 3. JMU wins.
Eastern Michigan @ Akron- The Zips lead the series 19-16, but the Eagles have won the last 4, including the last 2 played in Akron. EMU is having a very good year at 5-2/2-1, and are currently among 6 teams tied for 2nd in the MAC. Akron is only 1-6 and without an FBS win. E Mich wins.
Northern Illinois @ Ball State- The Huskies lead this series 25-24-2, winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, including the last 2 played in Muncie. This was after the Cardinals won 10 in a row from 2009-2018. NIU is 4-3/1-2, but BSU is 2-5/1-2, with their only FBS win over Kent State by 2. Huskies win.
Bowling Green @ Toledo- The Rockets lead the series 43-41-4, winning 12 of the last 14, but they've split the last 2 with the Falcons winning the last time they played in Toledo. BGSU is only 3-4, but are 2-1 in the MAC, but Toledo is 5-2/2-1. Their 1 common opponent has been NIU, whom the Rockets defeated by 7 points last week, but to whom the Falcons lost by 10 2 weeks ago. All the signs point to a Toledo victory, but this is the MAC, where upsets happen regularly. However, I'll stick with the Rockets to win over the Falcons at home.
Kent State @ Western Michigan- The Broncos lead the series 36-20-1, winning the last 3 (since 2016). WMU is on a 3-game winning streak, and at 3-0 in the MAC, are the only undefeated team in conference play. The Golden Flashes have been miserable since the last 2 years, as they are currently on a 16-game losing streak, have lost 17 straight FBS games, and have lost their last 11 games against MAC teams. Broncos win to extend KSU's misery.
Wagner @ UMass- The Minutemen have won the only previous meeting with the 4-4 Seahawks, 34-10 in 2016, and they'll win here to procure their 2nd win of the season, both over FCS squads.
UTSA @ Tulsa- The Roadrunners have won the only previous game played, 34-15 in 2013. The Golden Hurricane are only 2-5, and are 0-3 in the AAC, and they've lost 3 in a row. UTSA is playing way below expectations, as they are 3-4/1-2, but did win the last time out against FAU. However, the Roadrunners are 0-4 on the road, but playing the Golden Hurricane in Tulsa could be just the cure. Meep! Meep! UTSA wins.
Oregon State @ California- The Golden Bears lead this series 39-37, but the Beavers have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, including 2 of the last 3 played in Berkeley. Both teams have struggled of late, as Cal has lost 4 in a row, and the Beavers have lost 2 straight. All 6 of those losses have been by 8 points or less, so each was a 1-possession game. Cal wins a close one.
Texas @ Vanderbilt- I just assumed this would be a 1st time meeting, as these teams don't normally run in the same circles (until the Longhorns joined the SEC), but the Commodores actually lead this series 8-3-1. But here's the kicker- they haven't played since 1928! And Vandy is 4-0 in Nashville, with all the other games being played in Dallas. The Dores are 5-2, with wins over Alabama and at Kentucky, and are on a 3-game winning streak, their longest since they won the 1st 3 games of the 2017 season. Oh, and they're 4-0 at home. This is definitely not your typical Vandy team! UT is 6-1 after their 1st loss of the season at hme to UGA last week. Both teams are 2-1 in the SEC, so this is basically an elimination game for the SEC CG. The Texas defense has been lights out, holding their 1st 6 opponents to 13 points or less each, and 4 foes to 7 points or less, so the key could be how their offense does against the Commodore defense. I so want the Commodores to win, but I just can't go there. Horns win, and I doubt it will be close, as I expect the Dores to be held to 14 points or less.
New Mexico @ Colorado State- The Rams lead 44-25, winning each of the last 12, and even have a win in the 1997 WAC Championship Game. The Lobos are on a 3-game winning streak, and with 1 more win, they would match last year's win total with 4 yet to play. CSU has won 2 in a row, and 3 of their last 4, and are 2-0 in the MWC. UNM is 2-1 in the conference, so this is a battle to stay at or near the top. Both teams have played Air Force, with the Rams prevailing by 8 points last week, and the Lobos winning by 15 the week before. I'm tempted to pick UNM, but I think they're a year away from competing with the middle part of the conference. CSU wins a close one.
ULM @ South Alabama- This series is tied 5-5, with the Jaguars winning the last 2, and 3 of the last 4. However, USA is only 3-4, but 2-1 in the SBC. The Warhawks are 5-1 and 3-0 in the SBC, and were off last week. Each team has a win over Troy, with ULM winning by 4 on Sep 28, and the Jaguars winning. by 16 last week. Warhawks win to stay in 1st in the SBC West.
West Virginia @ Arizona- These teams have never met on the gridiron before. Both teams are 3-4 overall this year, and both teams have a loss to Kansas State on their resume', but the Mountaineers are 2-2 in the Big XII, and the Wildcats are 1-3. WVU has lost 2 in a row, while UA has lost 3 straight. Flip a coin. Mountaineers win on the road.
FSU @ Miami- This used to be THE biggest game of the year, but it's been a while since that was true. The Hurricanes lead the series 35-33, but the Seminoles have won the last 3. These teams have played every year since 1969, with Miami winning a rematch in the 2004 Orange Bowl. They also played 12 times between 1951 and 1966. This year, the Canes are 7-0/3-0, but their last 3 games have been decided by a combined 12 points, as the defense has allowed 34+ in each of those 3 games. However, the Noles have a horrific offense, scoring 16 or less in 6 of their games on their way to a 1-6/1-5 record. This may be a close game, due to the rivalry, but it sure won't be a shootout. Miami wins, probably by a lot.
Utah @ Houston- The Cougars have won all 4 times these teams have played: in 1966, 1971, 1977, and 1978, with 3 of those being played in Houston (as is this one). The Utes have bogged down of late, losing 3 consecutive games after starting the season 4-0, but they've each been relatively close (largest loss by 13). UH is only 2-5, but matches Utah's 1-3 Big XII record, and they have a win over a TCU squad that just beat the Utes. I don't have a lot of confidence in either of these teams, so I'll go with the home team. Houston wins.
Utah State @ Wyoming- The Aggies lead the series 40-28-4, but the Cowboys have won the last 2. Since 2001, when they renewed their rivalry after a 23 year hiatus, Wyoming leads 8-6. This year, USU is 1-6/0-3, on a 6-game losing streak, and has no wins against FBS teams. The Cowboys are also 1-6, but they at least have a 1-2 record in the MWC (but a loss to an FCS team). Wyoming has won 2 of the last 3 played in Laramie. Cowboys win.
Troy @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves lead the series 10-9, but the Trojans have won the last 3, and the last 3 played in Jonesboro. ASU is 4-3, and 2-1 in the SBC, while Troy is 1-6/0-3 with no FBS wins. Red Wolves win to keep pace wit the others at the top of the division.
Penn State @ Wisconsin- The Nittany Lions lead this series 11-9, winning the last 5 (since 2012), and 7 of the last 8 (since 2007), including in the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game. The Badgers are 5-2 and on a 3-game winning streak, but those 3 wins are against teams with a combined record of 2-10 in the Big Ten (2-7 without the UW results). PSU is 6-0/3-0, and were idle last week. Lions win.
LSU @ Texas A&M- Like Vandy-Texas, this is an elimination game in the SEC. The Tigers have a 36-23-3 edge in the series, winning 10 of the last 13, but the Aggies have won 3 of the last 6, with all of those in College Station (including the 32 OT game in 2018- just kidding- it was only 7). LSU also has wins in the 2011 Cotton Bowl and in the 1944 Orange Bowl. These teams have had eerily similar seasons. Both lost their opening game, LSU to USC in Las Vegas by 7, and Texas A&M to Notre Dame at home by 10, and both have since reeled off 6 consecutive wins, and each having 2 close wins among the 6. And each team is outscoring its opponents by a little over 13.5 ppg. This should be an epic battle. LSU wins.
Michigan State @ Michigan- Somehow, these teams have the same record overall and in the Big Ten, as each is 4-3/2-2. The Wolverines lead this series, which began in 1898, by a score of 73-38-5, as they've won the last 2, and 4 of the last 6, but the Spartans have won 3 of the last 5 played in Ann Arbor. Michigan is 4-1 at home this season; MSU is 1-2 on the road. But the Wolverines have yet to score more than 17 points in any game this October, and all P5 opponents have scored at least 21 points against their defense. The Spartand had a 3-game stretch where they were held below20 points in each game (all losses), but they held Iowa, who's been pretty decent on offense this year, to 20 points last week. I just don't see Michigan losing 3 in a row, which hasn't happened since 2020. If the Spartans can score 20+ points, they can win, but the Wolverines win a close, low-scoring affair.
Auburn @ Kentucky- The Tigers have dominated this cat fight to the tune of a 27-6-1 lead, winning the last 3 (since 2010), and 18 of the last 19 (since 1967). In fact, the Wildcats haven't defeated the Plainsmen in Lexington since 1966, losing 9 in a row at home. The War Eagles have been the hard luck team of the SEC this season, with 3 of their 5 losses by 7 points or less, and they are 0-4 in the conference, all in their last 4 games. UK has been all over the place, dominating 2 G5 teams, losing to UGA by 1, upsetting Ole Miss by 3, but also getting blown out by South Carolina and Florida, as they are on a current 2-game skid. One of these losing streaks will have to end this weekend. Wildcats conquer the War Eagles at home.
Kansas @ Kansas State- The Jayhawks lead this series 65-51-5, but the Wildcats have won the last 15, and the last 7 played in Manhattan. KU has experienced a huge letdown this season, with a 2-5/1-3 record, but they have actually been close to winning in all 5 losses, with their biggest loss by 11 points to TCU, and they have lost their 5 games by a combined 28 points. However, the Jayhawks just pounded Houston by 28 to get their 1st FBS win. KSU is 6-1/3-1, with their only loss on the road at BYU. This will be a very competitive game. Wildcats win.
SMU @ Duke- The Blue Devils have won both meetings between these 2, in 1952 in Dallas, and in 1956 in Durham. Both teams are 6-1 this season, but Duke has a loss to GT while the Mustangs are unbeaten in the ACC (their loss was to undefeated BYU). I'm not sure the Blue Devils can score eneough to keep up with the Ponies. SMU wins.
San Jose State @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs lead the series 44-39-3, winning 2 of the last 3, and 4 of the last 6, but the Spartans won 42-18 last year. SJSU is 5-2/3-1, with losses at Wash State and at Colorado State, but no win of any significance. FSU is 4-3/2-1, with losses to Wash State, at Michigan, and at UNLV, but they also don't have any significant wins. Each team has defeated Nevada and lost to Washington State, and all 4 of those games were within 1 score. Flip a coin. Spartans win.
Cincinnati @ Colorado- These are 2 of the biggest surprise teams in the Big XII, as both teams are 5-2 overall, and 3-1 in the conference. Way back in 1972, the Buffaloes defeated the Bearcats 56-14 in Boulder. That's been their only meeting until now. I'm sure the kids on the team in Ohio are really chomping at the bit to get revenge for that pounding at the hands of the Buffs. Both teams have a win at UCF, and their Big XII losses were by 3 points each. Colorado wins at home.
Washington State @ San Diego State- The series is tied at 1 win apiece, with each team winning at home in 2007 and 2011. The Cougars are 6-1, with their only loss at Boise State, and wins over Washington and Texas Tech. The Aztecs are 3-3, but have won their last 2. Wazzu wins.
Nevada @ Hawaii- The Wolf Pack lead the series 15-13, but the Rainbow Warriors have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, and 3 of the last 4 played in Honolulu. The teams are a combined 5-10, and 0-4 in the MWC, but they also only have combined for a 2-10 record against FBS foes. UH has 2 losses by 3 points each (UCLA and SDSU), while Nevada has 4 losses by 5 points or less. Wolf Pack wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment