TWIF Notes 10/7/24

Welcome Back!

What an exciting 6th weekend of college football! We had so much that was unexpected- upsets, blowouts- it's what makes college football the greatest game ever. It just defies explanation.

For the 1st time this season, there were no games against FCS teams.

Here are my thoughts on the FBS vs FBS games.

Texas State the weekend started with a 38-17 win over fellow SBC West foe Troy. The win pushes the Bobcats to 3-2/1-0, while the Trojans become the 1st team to lose 2 SBC games, and Troy still doesn't have an FBS win. At 1-5, the Trojans have already lost as many games as in the last 2 years combined, as they get a much needed off week this week.

Sam Houston moves to 2-0 in CUSA with a 41-21 win over UTEP. The Bearkats, at 5-1, have 2 more wins than they achieved all of last year, have won 8 of their last 10 games, and are 1 win from being eligible for their 1st bowl as an FBS team. The Miners are 0-5, and may not win any games except vs FBS newcomer Kennesaw State.

Jacksonville State mauled Kennesaw State 63-24. The Gamecocks have now won 2 in a row after dropping their 1st 3 games. The Owls seem unlikely to win any games, but their best remaining chance may be when they travel to UTEP in early November.

Houston upended TCU 31-19 to earn their 1st Big XII win of the year. The Cougars could conceivably get 1 or 2 more wins this year, which would get them to match last year's 4 wins. The Horned Frogs seem to be stuck in mediocrity, needing 3 wins in their last 6 games to better last year's 5-7 record and get back to a bowl game.

Oregon plastered Michigan State 31-10 to set up a massive showdown in Eugene against Ohio State in a battle of 5-0 teams. The Spartans have lost 3 straight after opening the season 3-0, and will probably only be favored in 2 more games, at most.

Syracuse outlasted UNLV to win 44-41 in OT to ruin the Rebels' hopes for an undefeated season, and to knock them out of the AP Top 25. The Orange are off to a stellar 4-1 start, needing just 2 wins to reach a bowl, and I see them possibly winning as many as 9 games, with an outside shot at 10, assuming key players remain healthy.

Penn State extended a miserable start to the season for UCLA with a 27-11 victory. While the Nittany Lions are 5-0, that record has been accomplished against teams that are a combined 10-15, so we still don't know if they are legitimate Big Ten contenders, or just paper Lions. We'll know soon as they travel to USC this week, then host Ohio State and Washington  in back-to-back weeks in early November. But those are the only "difficult" games, and they should be favored in all but the OSU game, and could even be favored in that one. This is an easy schedule (other games are at Wisconsin, Purdue, and Minnesota, and a home game vs Maryland in their season closer). 

Texas A&M demolished Missouri 41-10, and the game wasn't as close as the score would seem to indicate. The Aggies did whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted, as the Tigers just couldn't seem to get anything going. TAMU now leads the SEC at 3-0, and have about as easy a remaining conference schedule as you could possibly imagine: at Miss St, LSU, at SC, at Auburn, Texas. They could (should?) be 7-0 in the SEC when they host Texas in the final weekend, and that could be for 1st place in the conference. Mizzou, meanwhile, could win all the rest of their games except 1, as their schedule is also quite easy (relatively): Auburn, at Bama, Okla, at SC, at Miss St, Arkansas.

SMU survived on the road against Louisville, winning 34-27. The Mustangs have quietly gotten to 5-1, with only a 3-point loss to undefeated BYU. They also have a relatively easy path to the ACC CG, as they play at Stanford, at Duke, Pitt, BC, at UVA, and Cal. Are there any teams on that schedule that they can't beat? The only ones that could possibly be challenging are undefeated Pitt and perhaps Virginia, depending on if they are as good as they seem, or only the product of an easy schedule themselves. The key will be avoiding a stumble against an underdog, such as when they host BC or travel to Durham, NC. The Cardinals have lost 2 in a row after starting the season 3-0, and I see them losing as many as 3 or 4 more games.

Wisconsin destroyed Purdue 52-6, as the Boilermakers just might be the worst P5 team this year. All of their losses have been by at least 17 points, and their lone win is over FCS Indiana State. The Badgers needed this win in the worst way, as they are now (theoretically, mathematically) back in the Big Ten title chase. But I see at least 2 more losses in their future. Purdue, on the other hand, may get 1 FBS win, maybe against Northwestern on Nov 2 in West Lafayette.

Northern Illinois got back on the winning track after 2 consecutive losses with a 34-20 victory over UMass. The Huskies are now ready to dive headlong into MAC play, but they are already in an 0-1 deficit, thanks to a loss to Buffalo in Week 4. The Minutemen will be hard pressed to get an FBS win this year, but they do have another FCS opponent on their schedule in 3 weeks, so it doesn't look like they will match last year's modest 3 win total.

Virginia scored 24 unanswered points, 18 in the 4th quarter, to defeat Boston College 24-14. The Hoos have quietly worked their way to 4-1, but may be hard pressed to find 2 more wins on their schedule to get to bowl eligibility. They have to beat rival Va Tech to get there. The Eagles drop to 4-2, and may also have a hard time getting to 6 wins.

Pittsburgh stayed unbeaten with a 34-24 win over North Carolina, as the Tar Heels have now lost 3 straight. UNC is another team that may struggle to get to 6 wins, as they stand at 3-3, and 0-2 in the ACC. The Panthers are a surprising 5-0, and have 4 of their next 5 games at home, but none of those 5 will be easy.

Wake Forest came back to defeat NC State 34-30, and it's obvious that the Wolfpack aren't the dark horse CFP candidate everyone expected them to be. At 3-3, they'll need an upset or 2 to even make it to a bowl. The Demon Deacons got their 1st FBS win of the season, and could win as many as 4 more games, which would get them to 6 wins, but I think it more likely they repeat their 4-8 record from a year ago.

Navy plastered Air Force 34-7 to stay undefeated. The Midshipmen are 1 win from a bowl game, and are off this week before hosting Charlotte for homecoming. Their 1st "real" test will be against Notre Dame the last weekend in October, but they better not overlook the 49ers. The Falcons are experiencing a miserable season so far, and at 1-4, already have as many losses as all of last year. Air Force has not lost as many as 5 games since 2018 (the 2nd of 2 consecutive 5-7 seasons), so they need to get a win at New Mexico this week.

Army crushed Tulsa 49-7. The Black Knights are 5-0, and the only team in any conference with 4 conference wins. Army has UAB and ECU at home the next 2 weeks before getting an off week to prepare for rival Air Force. They already have the nation's longest winning streak: 9 games. This team has a chance to be 9-0 when they take on Notre Dame in late November, and could be playing for a spot in the AAC CG when they host UTSA on Nov 30. The Golden Hurricane need 2 more wins to match last year's 4 wins.

Tulane decimated UAB 71-20. The Green Wave have positioned themselves to make the AAC CG, but have tough games remaining at UNT, at Navy, and vs Memphis. The Blazers have lost 4 in a row, and their chances for an FBS win are dwindling.

Western Michigan held off Ball State to win 45-42. The Broncos got their 1st FBS win while denying the Cardinals theirs.

Georgia cruised past Auburn 31-13. The Bulldogs rebounded from their devastating loss last week to get back on the winning track, but they still have one of the nation's toughest schedules remaining, as they have yet to take on Texas in Austin, Florida in Jacksonville, Ole Miss, in Oxford, and Tennessee and Georgia Tech at home. Those 5 teams currently have a combined record of 21-6, with only the Gators and Jackets having more than 1 loss (they each have 2 for a combined 7-4). The Tigers are the only team with 3 SEC losses, and they'll be hard pressed to match last year's 6 wins.

Ohio State pulled away from Iowa in the 2nd half to win 35-7, as the score was only 7-0 at the half in favor of the Buckeyes. OSU stays unbeaten, but has a huge game at Oregon. The Hawkeyes have their 2nd loss, as their offense failed them for the 2nd time this year. In addition, the Iowa defense doesn't seem as stout as we are used to seeing, allowing an average of 22.5 ppg vs FBS foes.

Ole Miss stomped South Carolina 27-3. The result sets up a weird triangle: the Rebels beat SC by 24, who beat Kentucky by 25, who beat Ole Miss by 3. The Gamecocks suffered their 2nd loss, both in the SEC, as this was basically an elimination game. They now get to take on a desperate Alabama team in Tuscaloosa, and follow that up with a trip to Norman to battle OU. The Rebels play yet another elimination game at LSU this weekend, and then are off before hosting those same Sooners.

Indiana became the 1st team to reach 6 wins (and bowl eligibility!) with a 41-24 victory over Northwestern. The Hoosiers so far are the surprise team of not just the Big Ten, but of the whole country, and not just because they are unbeaten, but also because their average margin of victory is 32.67 ppg. IU will get a week off to rest and heal before opening the 2nd half of their schedule with home games against Nebraska and Washington. It's possible they could be 9-0 when they host Michigan on Nov 9, and a win there would make them 10-0 when they travel to Columbus to meet Ohio State. The Wildcats seem likely to fall far short of the 8 wins they had last season.

UConn stunned Temple 29-20. The Owls were getting set to score the go ahead TD with time running out when they fumbled and the Huskies scooped and scored for the final margin, crossing the goal line as time expired. They skipped the PAT as it wasn't necessary for the final result. UConn has now won 3 straight games, and 4 of their last 5, and their 4-2 record already surpasses last year's 3-9 finish. The Huskies could be favored in 4 or 5 of their remaining 6 games. Temple almost pulled off the upset, but fell just short. I see 2 or 3 "winnable" games remaining for the Owls, but I expect maybe 1 more win.

Virginia Tech routed Stanford 31-7 to even their records at 3-3 and 1-1 in the ACC. Both teams could play the roles of spoilers in the ACC race, as the Hokies still have BC, GT, Syracuse, Clemson, Duke, and UVA to play, and the Cardinal have SMU, Louisville, and Cal, among others.

Marshall handed Appalachian State their 2nd SBC loss with a 52-37 win. The Mountaineers are in last place in the East, as this looks like a repeat of the 2022 season, when ASU was 6-6. The Thundering Herd are a legitimate threat to win the division, but they'll need to get by Ga Southern in Statesboro next week to solidify that position.

Toledo eased past Miami, Oh 30-20, as the Rockets are one of 2 teams in the MAC at 4-1. (Can you name the other? Answer at the end of this paragraph!). The Redhawks are really struggling this season, needing OT to get past a terrible UMass team last week, and losing all of their other games, but they've had a very difficult schedule so far (at Northwestern, Cincinnati, at Notre Dame, UMass, at Toledo) and now must go on the road yet again to take on the other 4-1 MAC team (who was off last week). Have you figured it out yet? Miami travels to Ypsilanti to take on 4-1 Eastern Michigan.

Bowling Green eked by Akron 27-20, scoring the winning TD with 2:37 remaining. The Falcons earned their 1st FBS win of the year while denying the Zips their first.

Charlotte obliterated East Carolina 55-24. The 49ers have won 2 in a row to even their record after starting the season 1-3, and at 2-0 in the AAC, are very much in the title chase. However, their next 3 games- after an off week this week- will define their season: at Navy, at Memphis, and Tulane at home. The Pirates seemed like one of the favorites after they beat UTSA by 10, but this result calls into question if ECU can even get to 6 wins and a bowl game. The good news is that they have already bested last year's 2 wins.

West Virginia stomped Oklahoma State 38-14 to remain undefeated in Big XII games. The Cowboys have lost 3 straight conference games, and even though they were one of the preseason favorites to play in the CG, they may find it difficult to even achieve a winning Big XII record. The Mountaineers are unbeaten against teams not from the state of Pennsylvania.

Nebraska stoned Rutgers 14-7, leading 14-0 at the half, then holding on from there. The Scarlet Knights suffered their 1st defeat of the season, but are still very much alive in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers finally won a close game, and at 5-1, are only 1 win from making it to a bowl for the 1st time since they were 9-4 in 2016 under former HC Mike Riley. That may have to wait, as they are off this week, then play at Indiana and at Ohio State the next 2 weeks.

Vanderbilt stunned Alabama (and the rest of the country) with a 40-35 victory over the Crimson Tide. What struck me the most was the poise displayed by the Commodores. They never trailed, and every time the Tide got close, Vandy scored to put more distance between them and their pursuers. The Tide lost the turnover battle 2-0, lost the TOP battle with only 18:02 of possession, and allowed 40 points for the 1st time since defeating Florida 52-46 in the 2020 SEC CG. The Dores' OL dominated the Bama DL at the point of attack, and when the Tide needed a stop after pulling within 5 with just over 2:30 to go, Vandy ran it down their throats for a couple of 1st downs to put the game away. This was Vandy's 1st win over Alabama since 1984, and their 1st in Nashville since 1969. The Commodores are a good team, and could win 3 or more of their remaining games (which would get them to a bowl), but I expect Bama to bounce back and push for a berth in the SEC CG. Too many times have people called a result like this the beginning of the end for the Tide, but I'm not buying it. It was just one bad game against a team playing way above their heads that would not be denied.

Oregon State needed 2 OTs to get past Colorado State 39-31. The Beavers kicked a FG with 27 seconds left in regulation to send the game into OT, and keep their (very slim) CFP hopes alive. The Rams are the only team in the FBS that has yet to play a conference game, but that changes when they host San Jose State this weekend.

Clemson throttled FSU 29-13, as the Seminoles have been held to 21 points or less in all 6 games this season, averaging a measly 14.83 ppg. The Tigers were held to their lowest point total since their opening game against Georgia, but were never seriously threatened.

Boise State blasted Utah State 62-30 in the conference opener for both teams. The Broncos are 4-1 on the year, and with UNLV's loss on Friday, probably the favorite for the G5 CFP spot. The Aggies have lost 4 in a row, and have yet to defeat an FBS foe, even losing to Temple a couple of weeks ago. They play UNLV next (how's that for back-to-back games) before they play New Mexico, both at home.

Coastal Carolina survived ODU 45-37, as the Chanticleers keep pace with Marshall and Ga Southern in the SBC East.

Arkansas State kicked a FG with 14 seconds left to upend South Alabama 18-16. The Red Wolves are 3-2 for the 2nd year in a row, and with the SBC being a little bit down this year, they could get their most wins since they were 8-5 in 2019. The Jaguars are 2-4 overall, and 1-1 in the SBC.

ULM did just enough to upset James Madison in what could be the biggest home win in their history. The Warhawks took down an undefeated Dukes squad that had won 18 of their last 20 games, and at 4-1, have their best start since they were 4-0-1 in 1978 (finished 6-4-1 under HC John David Crow (yes, the JD Crow that won the 1957 Heisman Trophy as a RB at Texas A&M), back when ULM was known as NE Louisiana. ULM is the only team in the SBC with a 2-0 conference record, and they could be 4-0 when they play Marshall in Huntington on Nov 2. The Warhawks have only ever been to 1 bowl game, in 2012, and they are 2 wins from qualifying.

Louisiana eased by Southern Miss 23-13 in another game that served as the conference opener for both teams. The Golden Eagles are still winless in FBS competition, while the Ragin' Cajuns, at 4-1, appear to be one of the best teams in the Sun Belt.

Arkansas upset Tennessee 19-14 in one of the strangest games I've ever seen. The Razorbacks dominated this game from start to finish, in nearly all aspects, but just couldn't get the ball in the end zone, leading only 3-0 at the half despite an overwhelming statistical edge. Then, after the Vols took a 14-3 lead, the Hogs found the end zone twice over the last 20 minutes, and added a FG in between just for good measure. This win could rejuvenate Arkansas and perhaps start them on a roll, but they have LSU and Ole Miss in 2 of their next 3 games, both at home. UT dropped their 1st game of the season, and now have rivals Florida and Alabama the next 2 weeks, both in Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.

Washington got by Michigan 27-17 as the Wolverines moved on to their 3rd QB of the season. Michigan actually broke 100 yds passing- just barely, as they finished with 113 yds. The Huskies needed this win, as both teams are now 4-2/2-1.

Minnesota beat USC 24-17 to even their record at 3-3, and improve to 1-2 in the Big Ten. The Trojans are also 1-2 in the conference, but 3-2 overall. USC hosts Penn State this week, then has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, but a loss to the Lions could doom both their Big Ten and their CFP hopes.

Iowa State romped over Baylor 43-21. The Cyclones are one of 4 teams tied for 2nd in the Big XII, a half game behind Texas Tech. Overall, ISU is 5-0, and one of 2 remaining unbeatens in the conference (BYU is also 5-0). The Bears will be playing the role of spoiler for the rest of the season as they are 0-3 in the Big XII.

San Jose State squeezed by Nevada 35-31. The Spartans are 4-1 with only a 2 OT loss to Washington State. The Wolf Pack are only 2-4, but 3 of their losses were by 5 points or less.

Florida laid claim to 2nd best team in the state with a win over UCF, 24-13. The Gators and Knights are both 3-2, but UF has lost 7 of their last 10 games, and are 1-5 in their last 6 SEC games with Tennessee in Knoxville next on the docket.

Georgia Tech knocked Duke from the ranks of the undefeated with a 24-14 victory over the Blue Devils. The Jackets are a good team that, like so many others, just lacks consistency. This teams is capable of beating any team, but also capable of losing to just about anyone. Duke is headed for at least 2 more losses, but I'm sure would take 9-3 or 8-4; either would be an improvement over the regular season last year (7-5). 

Arizona State scored a TD with 16 seconds left to win 35-31 and hand Kansas their 5th straight loss, 4 of them by 6 points or less (the other was by 11 points to TCU). 7 of the last 8 losses for the Jayhawks have been by 7 points or less, and they are 2-7 over their last 9 games. The Sun Devils secured their 4th win, 1 more than they had each of the last 2 years, with 3 of their 4 wins are by 7 points or less, and their 1 loss was by 8 points.

San Diego State held off Hawaii to emerge victorious in a 27-24 game. The Aztecs got their 1st FBS win in their MWC opener, while the Rainbow Warriors have yet to get one (their 2 wins are both over FCS foes).

Miami overcame a 35-10 deficit and outscored Cal 29-3 over the last 18 minutes to win a 39-38 thriller. The Hurricanes scored 21 unanswered points the last 10 and a half minutes to secure the win and stay unbeaten. The Golden Bears nearly had the final upset in a day of them, but couldn't quite put the Canes away, allowing the winning TD with less than 30 seconds left.

Texas Tech sits on top of the Big XII thanks to a 28-22 win over Arizona. At 5-1 and 3-0, the Red Raiders are off to their best start since they started 4-1 in 2021.

That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings! And there are some major changes!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!