Odds and Ends 11/20/24

Welcome Back!

Before I get to this week's interesting tidbits, there are some games being played tonight.

Wednesday, November 20

Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles lead the series 7-4, winning 24-11 last year, but the Bulls have won 3 of the last 4 (since 2018), and the last 2 played in Ypsilanti. Buffalo is having a good season at 6-4/4-2, and they still have a chance at a MAC CG slot, but they have to win both of their remaining games. EMU started the season 5-2, but after losing 3 in a row, the Eagles are in danger of missing a bowl altogether, with this game being the easier of their last 2 matchups. E Mich is only 3-2 at home (1-2 in the MAC), and UB is 2-3 on the road (2-1 in the MAC). Buffalo wins.

Ohio @ Toledo- The Rockets lead the series 33-21-1, winning the last 2, and 17 of the last 20 (since 1985), but the 2 teams have split the last 4 meetings. The Bobcats won the last time they played in Toledo in 2016 (which was their 1st win there since 1967), but the Rockets won their last matchup in the 2022 MAC CG. Both teams need this win to stay in the conference title race. Toledo wins.

OOC games are beginning to reappear, but I will hold off on showing the final numbers until the end of the regular season. 

Instead, here are how the conference races are shaping up.

Conference Call

(Records listed do NOT reflect results from last night.)

AAC

With Tulane's win over Navy last weekend, the Green Wave clinched a spot against Army, who was idle, but also benefitted from Navy's loss. The location is yet to be determined, and may not be decided until after the final games (higher seed hosts). 

ACC

Top of the Heap: SMU

Contenders: Clemson, Miami

Eliminated: Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, Va Tech, Wake Forest, Ga Tech, Duke, UNC, UVA, BC, NC St, Stanford, FSU, Cal

Scenario for CG berth: SMU is in if it wins its last 2 games, or if it wins one and Miami loses one of its last 2, or if Miami loses both games. Clemson is in if it wins at Pitt and Miami loses one of their last 2 games. The best Miami can do is tie Clemson. If Clemson and Miami end up tied, the most likely scenario, then tie-breaking procedures will be followed. 

Big XII

Top of the Heap: BYU, Colorado

Contenders: Iowa St, Arizona St

Long Shots: WVU , TCU

Eliminated: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Cincinnati, Kansas, Houston, UCF, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma St

Scenario for CG berth: BYU clinches if it wins at least 2 of their 3 remaining games. Colorado is guaranteed a slot if it wins out, but can clinch with a loss if other teams also lose. Of the remaining teams, Arizona State has the best chance, as they play 2 of the contenders, and could at least knock Kansas State out of the running. All others need multiple upsets and maximum chaos to make it in. Tie breakers could also factor in.

Big Ten

Top of the Heap: Indiana, Oregon

Contenders: Ohio St, Penn St

Eliminated: Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan, UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan St, Northwestern, USC, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue

Scenario for CG berth: According to the Big Ten, Oregon has already clinched a berth in the CG. The winner of the Ohio St-Indiana game will have the best chance of also making it in, though I'm not sure how an Indiana/Penn State tie would be resolved (would involve OSU losing twice, and Indiana losing to Purdue). The only sure way for Penn State to make it in is to win both of their remaining games, have OSU lose to Michigan, and have Indiana lose to both OSU and Purdue.

CUSA

Top of the Heap: JSU

Contenders: WKU, Sam Houston

In the Mix: Liberty

Eliminated: FIU, La Tech, MTSU, Kennesaw St, New Mexico St, UTEP

Scenario for CG berth: JSU is in if it wins out, or if it wins one and either WKU or SHS loses one. WKU is in if it wins out as well, as it owns the tiebreaker with SHS. Sam Houston might be in if it wins out, as it could create a 3-way tie for 1st, with each having defeated one of the others. However, if JSU or WKU lost an extra game, then SHS is in. Liberty would get in if it defeats both WKU and SHS, as it would then hold the tiebreaker advantage over both.

MAC

Top of the Heap: Miami, Ohio, BGSU

Contenders: WMU, Buffalo, Toledo

Long Shots: NIU

Eliminated: Ball St, EMU, CMU, Akron, Kent St

Scenario for CG berth: Miami, is in if it wins out. BGSU is in if it wins out. Both cannot win out, as they play each other the last week of the season. Ohio is in if it wins out. Toledo is in if it wins out. WMU, Buffalo, and NIU need lots of help.

Mountain West

Top of the Heap: Boise St, Colorado St

Contenders: UNLV

Eliminated: SDSU, SJSU, Hawaii, Fresno St, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah St, Nevada, Air Force

Scenario for CG berth: Boise State has already clinched one spot. Colorado State will clinch the other spot if it wins out, or with one win and a UNLV loss, or with 2 UNLV losses. UNLV would force a tie for 2nd with 2 wins and a CSU loss, or would clinch outright with 2 wins and 2 CSU losses. 

Pac 12

This will be decided when Washington State visits Oregon State on Nov 23

SEC

Top of the Heap: Texas A&M, Texas

Contenders: Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama

Eliminated: Missouri, LSU, Vandy, South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma, Auburn, Kentucky, Miss St

Scenario for CG berth: Texas, and Texas A&M are in if they win out (Texas plays Texas A&M on the last weekend, so one is almost guaranteed a spot). Alabama is in if it wins out (assuming I understand the tiebreakers correctly). It would take multiple losses by specific teams for Tennessee, or Georgia to have a chance, but the worst UGA can finish is a tie for 2nd. Much depends on how many and who ends up tied. Ole Miss is in decent shape, as it owns the tiebreaker edge over UGA, but I'm not sure how they would compare with Alabama in a tiebreaker scenario. 

Sun Belt

East

Top of the Heap: Marshall

Contenders: Ga Southern, JMU

Long Shots: ODU

Eliminated: CCU, App St, Ga State

Scenario for CG berth: Ga Southern is in if it wins out and Marshall loses a game. Marshall needs to win out. If JMU wins out, they could also get in. ODU is also in if it wins out, assuming other teams lose.

West

Top of the Heap: Louisiana

Contenders: Arkansas St, South Alabama, Texas St

Long Shots: ULM

Eliminated: Troy, Southern Miss

Scenario for CG berth: Louisiana needs to win 1 of their remaining 2 games. Arkansas State would have to win all 3, and hope the Ragin' Cajuns lose all 3. USA, ULM, and TSU would need the same scenario, but also a loss by Ark State. 

Intraconference results

The SBC West leads the East are now tied at 7-5 as the Sun Belt is the sole conference with divisions. The SBC West won 2 of 2 games against the East last weekend.

Undefeated/Winless teams

Here are the remaining undefeated teams, listed alphabetically. 

Army 9-0

Indiana 10-0

Oregon 11-0

1 team suffered their 1st loss in week 12, so we are down to 3 out of 134 teams (2.2%) that are still undefeated. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten- 2 out of 18 teams (.111)

AAC- 1/14 (.071)

Pac-0/2 teams (.000)

Ind- 0/3 (.000)

CUSA- 0/10 (.000)

MAC- 0/12 (.000)

MWC- 0/12 (..000)

SBC- 0/14 (.000)

SEC- 0/16 (.000)

Big 12- 0/16 (.000)

ACC- 0/17 (.000)

These teams are still winless, again listed alphabetically. 

Kent State 0-10

We are still at 1 out of 134 teams (0.7%) that are winless. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten 0/18

ACC 0/17

SEC 0/16

Big 12 0/16

AAC 0/14

SBC 0/14

MWC 0/12

CUSA 0/10

Ind 0/3

Pac 2 0/2

MAC 1/12

These are the teams that have a win, but none against FBS teams. These are also listed alphabetically.

Purdue

Southern Miss

UMass

 

Overall 3 teams have a win, but no FBS wins. Here is how that breaks down by conference:

SBC- 1

Big Ten- 1

Ind- 1

AAC- 0

SEC- 0

CUSA- 0

Big 12- 0

Pac 12- 0

ACC- 0

MAC- 0

MWC- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

There are 35 bowl games this year, in addition to the 12 teams that will make the CFP. The CFP will include an additional 6 bowls- 4 for quarterfinals, and 2 for semifinals- bringing the total number of bowls to 41, but some teams (4) will play in 2 bowls (quarterfinals and semifinals). In addition, there are 4 CFP 1st round games at home sites of the 5-8 seeds. What all this means is that there will be 12 teams in the CFP, and 70 teams for the additional 35 bowl games, meaning 82 teams (out of 134, or 61.2%) will make the postseason in one form or another. The minimum requirement to reach a bowl is 6 wins, of which 5 must be against FBS teams. However, teams with 5 wins may be included (and have been in the past), and they are chosen by looking at the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of the teams with 5 wins and choosing teams with the best APR, and then in decreasing order. Hawaii plays 2 FCS teams, so they must get to 7 wins to be eligible.

64 teams have already reached bowl eligibility, meaning 18 more teams are needed.

Alabama

Arkansas State

Army

Arizona State

Baylor

Boise State

Bowling Green

Buffalo

BYU

Clemson

Colorado

Colorado State

Duke

East Carolina

Georgia

Georgia Southern

Georgia Tech

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Iowa State

Jacksonville State

James Madison

Kansas State

Liberty

Louisiana

Louisville

LSU

Marshall

Memphis

Miami, Fl

Miami, Oh

Minnesota

Missouri

Navy

North Carolina

Northern Illinois

Notre Dame

Ohio

Ohio State

Ole Miss

Oregon

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

Sam Houston

San Jose State

SMU

South Carolina

Syracuse

TCU

Tennessee

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas State

Texas Tech

Toledo

Tulane

UConn

UNLV

Vanderbilt

Washington

Washington State

WKU

These are the teams who have reached 7 losses (or are otherwise ineligible). Some 7 loss teams may yet qualify for a bowl, if there are not enough teams with 6 wins.

Air Force

Akron

Ball State

Central Michigan

Charlotte

FAU

FIU

FSU

Georgia State

Hawaii

Kennesaw State (transition team)

Kent State

Middle Tennessee

Mississippi State

Nevada

New Mexico State

Oklahoma State

Purdue

Rice

San Diego State

Southern Miss

Stanford

Temple

Troy

Tulsa

UAB

UMass

Utah State

UTEP

Wyoming

30 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration.

Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.

Team: Nebraska

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, at Iowa

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Wisconsin 

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Nebraska, Minnesota

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Cincinnati

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Kansas St, TCU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: North Texas

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: ECU, at Temple

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: ULM

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ark St, Louisiana

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Eastern Michigan

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Buffalo, at WMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Arkansas

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: La Tech, at Mizzou

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Michigan

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: NW, at Ohio St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: Virginia Tech

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Duke, UVA

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: Fresno State

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Colo St, at UCLA

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Western Michigan

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at CMU, EMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: Oklahoma

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Alabama, at LSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Florida

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Miss, at FSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Maryland

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Iowa, at Penn St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: Michigan State

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Purdue, Rutgers

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: NC State

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at GT, at UNC

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Boston College

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: UNC, Pitt

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Virginia

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule:  SMU, at Va Tech

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Utah

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Iowa St, at UCF

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: Oregon State

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Wash St, at Boise St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: Coastal Carolina

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ga Sou, at Ga St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: USC

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, ND

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: California

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Stanford, at SMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Wake Forest

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Miami, Duke

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: West Virginia

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: UCF, at Texas Tech

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: ODU

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Marshall, at Ark St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: South Alabama

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss, Texas St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Kentucky

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: at Texas, Louisville

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Northwestern

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: at Mich, Illinois

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Arizona

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: at TCU, Ariz St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: UCF

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: at WVU, Utah

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: UTSA

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Temple, at Army

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: USF

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Tulsa, at Rice

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: New Mexico

Record: 5-6

Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Auburn

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Texas A&M, Alabama

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Houston

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Baylor, at BYU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Appalachian State

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule:  JMU, at Ga Sou

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Ball State

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: BGSU, at Ohio

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: La Tech

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, Kenn St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: UCLA

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule:  USC, Fresno St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Kansas

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Colo, at Baylor

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Paul's Playoff Picks

Almost all of my picks are still in play (obviously), but FSU has been eliminated. This could also affect the ACC as a whole.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- lost to Alabama, defeated Texas, lost to Ole Miss, beat Tennessee

Ohio State- defeated Penn St, but lost to Oregon

FSU- ELIMINATED

Utah- ELIMINATED

Notre Dame- lost to a MAC team, but has rebounded nicely

Boise State- loss to Oregon by 3, wins over WSU and UNLV

Clemson- 2nd loss makes it tough

Texas- has a big win over Michigan, loss to UGA

Oregon- big win over Ohio State

Iowa- ELIMINATED

Missouri- ELIMINATED

LSU- ELIMINATED

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:

Alabama- 2 losses, to Vandy and Tennessee, but big wins over UGA and LSU

Ole Miss- big win over UGA, but has 2 losses

Tennessee- defeated Alabama, lost to Arkansas, lost to UGA- on the fringes

Penn State- no big wins, but only 1 loss

Michigan- ELIMINATED

USC- ELIMINATED

Rutgers- ELIMINATED

Miami, Fl- loss to Ga Tech

SMU- has a loss to BYU

Va Tech- ELIMINATED

Louisville- ELIMINATED

NC State-  ELIMINATED

Kansas State- ELIMINATED

Oklahoma State- ELIMINATED

Arizona- ELIMINATED

West Virginia- ELIMINATED

Kansas- ELIMINATED

UTSA- ELIMINATED

Tulane- close loss to Kansas State, bigger loss to Oklahoma

Memphis- ELIMINATED

East Carolina- ELIMINATED

Air Force- ELIMINATED

Appalachian State- ELIMINATED

Texas State- ELIMINATED

Toledo- ELIMINATED

Northern Illinois- ELIMINATED

Liberty- ELIMINATED

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P5 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and 10-12 come from these 2 lists.

This late in the season, 9 of my 12 picks are still possibilities. Teams that are still in the race that I (and everyone else!) whiffed on include: 

Texas A&M- loss to SC really hurts case, but could still win SEC

Indiana

Iowa State- loss to TTU knocks them down a peg, and now a 2nd loss, to Kansas

Colorado

BYU- suffered 1st loss to Kansas at home

Army

Navy- ELIMINATED

UNLV

Of my "extra" picks, only 7 of 27 are still possibilities.

6 of my 12 preseason picks were in the opening bracket. 4 of my "additional" teams were also in. I only completely whiffed on Indiana and BYU. 

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!