Odds and Ends 11/27/24

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Welcome Back!


Next week I will give the final report of how the conferences did in OOC games, as there are several this week to add to the tally.



Intraconference results

The SBC West leads the East at 7-6 as the Sun Belt is the sole conference with divisions. The SBC East won 1 of 1 games against the West last weekend. There is 1 game remaining: ODU @ Arkansas State.


Undefeated/Winless teams

Here are the remaining undefeated teams, listed alphabetically. 

Oregon 11-0

2 teams suffered their 1st loss in week 13, so we are down to just Oregon out of 134 teams (0.7%) that are still undefeated. 



These teams are still winless, again listed alphabetically. 

Kent State 0-12

We are still at 1 out of 134 teams (0.7%) that are winless. 



These are the teams that have a win, but none against FBS teams. These are also listed alphabetically.

Purdue
Southern Miss
UMass
 
Overall 3 teams have a win, but no FBS wins. Here is how that breaks down by conference:

SBC- 1
Big Ten- 1
Ind- 1
AAC- 0
SEC- 0
CUSA- 0
Big 12- 0
Pac 12- 0
ACC- 0
MAC- 0
MWC- 0


Bowl eligible/eliminated

There are 35 bowl games this year, in addition to the 12 teams that will make the CFP. The CFP will include an additional 6 bowls- 4 for quarterfinals, and 2 for semifinals- bringing the total number of bowls to 41, but some teams (4) will play in 2 bowls (quarterfinals and semifinals). In addition, there are 4 CFP 1st round games at home sites of the 5-8 seeds. What all this means is that there will be 12 teams in the CFP, and 70 teams for the additional 35 bowl games, meaning 82 teams (out of 134, or 61.2%) will make the postseason in one form or another. The minimum requirement to reach a bowl is 6 wins, of which 5 must be against FBS teams. However, teams with 5 wins may be included (and have been in the past), and they are chosen by looking at the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of the teams with 5 wins and choosing teams with the best APR, and then in decreasing order. Hawaii plays 2 FCS teams, so they must get to 7 wins to be eligible.

77 teams have already reached bowl eligibility, meaning 5 more teams are needed.

Alabama
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Army
Arizona State
Baylor
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Duke
East Carolina
Florida
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Jacksonville State
James Madison
Kansas State
Liberty
Louisiana
Louisville
LSU
Marshall
Memphis
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Navy
Nebraska
North Carolina
Northern Illinois
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Sam Houston
San Jose State
SMU
South Alabama
South Carolina
Syracuse
TCU
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas State
Texas Tech
Toledo
Tulane
UConn
UNLV
USC
USF
UTSA
Vanderbilt
Washington
Washington State
West Virginia
WKU


This is how these break down by conference:

SEC- 13 out of 16 teams- .813
Big Ten- 12/18- .667
Independents- 2/3- .667
ACC -11/17- .647
Big XII- 9/16- .563
AAC- 7/14- .500
Sun Belt- 7/14- .500
MAC- 6/12- .500
Pac 12- 1/2- .500
Mountain West- 5/12- .417
CUSA- 4/10- .400 (4/9 eligible teams- .444)


These are the teams who have reached 7 losses (or are otherwise ineligible). Some 7 loss teams may yet qualify for a bowl, if there are not enough teams with 6 wins.

Air Force
Akron
Arizona
Ball State
Central Michigan
Charlotte
FAU
FIU
FSU
Georgia State
Hawaii
Houston
Kennesaw State (transition team)
Kent State
Kentucky
La Tech
Maryland
Middle Tennessee
Mississippi State
Nevada
New Mexico State
Northwestern
ODU
Oklahoma State
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
Southern Miss
Stanford
Temple
Troy
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UMass
Utah
Utah State
UTEP
Wake Forest
Wyoming

41 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration.


Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.


Team: Wisconsin 
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Minnesota
Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Cincinnati
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: TCU
Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: North Texas
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Temple
Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: ULM
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Louisiana
Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Eastern Michigan
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at WMU
Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Virginia Tech
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: UVA
Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Western Michigan
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: EMU
Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Michigan State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Rutgers
Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: NC State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at UNC
Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Virginia
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule:  at Va Tech
Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Oregon State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Boise St
Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Coastal Carolina
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Ga St
Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: New Mexico
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii
Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Auburn
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Alabama
Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Appalachian State
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule:  at Ga Sou
Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Kansas
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Baylor
Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

There are 16 teams with 5 wins, all vying for the final 5 bowl slots. For the 1st time in many years, it looks like some bowl eligible teams may be left out. 


Paul's Playoff Picks


As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).


Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order. These are my preseason picks.

Georgia- lost to Alabama, defeated Texas, lost to Ole Miss, beat Tennessee
Ohio State- defeated Penn St and Indiana, but lost to Oregon
FSU- ELIMINATED
Utah- ELIMINATED
Notre Dame- lost to a MAC team, but has rebounded nicely
Boise State- loss to Oregon by 3, wins over WSU and UNLV
Clemson- 2nd loss makes it tough
Texas- has a big win over Michigan, loss to UGA
Oregon- big win over Ohio State, only undefeated team remaining
Iowa- ELIMINATED
Missouri- ELIMINATED
LSU- ELIMINATED



To hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in. These were also preseason picks.

Alabama- ELIMINATED
Ole Miss- ELIMINATED
Tennessee- defeated Alabama, lost to Arkansas, lost to UGA- on the fringes
Penn State- no big wins, but only 1 loss
Michigan- ELIMINATED
USC- ELIMINATED
Rutgers- ELIMINATED
Miami, Fl- loss to Ga Tech
SMU- has a loss to BYU
Va Tech- ELIMINATED
Louisville- ELIMINATED
NC State-  ELIMINATED
Kansas State- ELIMINATED
Oklahoma State- ELIMINATED
Arizona- ELIMINATED
West Virginia- ELIMINATED
Kansas- ELIMINATED
UTSA- ELIMINATED
Tulane- close loss to Kansas State, bigger loss to Oklahoma
Memphis- ELIMINATED
East Carolina- ELIMINATED
Air Force- ELIMINATED
Appalachian State- ELIMINATED
Texas State- ELIMINATED
Toledo- ELIMINATED
Northern Illinois- ELIMINATED
Liberty- ELIMINATED

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P5 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and 10-12 come from these 2 lists.

This late in the season, 7 of my 12 picks are still possibilities. Teams that are still in the race that I (and everyone else!) whiffed on include: 

Texas A&M- losses to SC and Auburn really hurts case, but could still win SEC
Indiana- loss to Ohio State, but still in good position
Iowa State- still in the race to win the Big XII
Colorado- now has 3 losses
BYU- 2 losses
Army- suffered 1st loss in blowout fashion to ND
Navy- ELIMINATED
UNLV- must win the MWC

Of my "extra" picks, only 4 of 27 are still real possibilities.

7 of my 12 original picks are possibilities.



I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.




Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!     

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