Odds and Ends 11/6/24

Welcome Back!

Before I get to this week's interesting tidbits, there are some games being played tonight.

Wednesday, November 6

Ohio @ Kent State- The Bobcats lead 46-27-2, winning 7 of the last 9, including 42-17 last year, but the Golden Flashes have won 2 of the last 3. Ohio is 1 win from their 3rd consecutive bowl. KSU is trying to break a 17-game losing streak, and a 19-game losing streak to FBS teams. Oof! Bobcats win.

Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan- The Broncos lead this series 27-22, but the Huskies have won the last 2, and they have split the last 8, with WMU winning 3 of the last 4 played in Kalamazoo. NIU has had an up-and-down season, following a pattern of 2 wins-2 losses through their 1st 8 games. This means they're due for a 2-game winning streak. The Broncos are undefeated in the MAC, and are 1 win from bowl eligibility, and they currently own a 4-game winning streak. WMU wins.

OOC games are starting to dwindle away as all teams are into their conference schedules. Of course, Notre Dame, UConn, and UMass have to play somebody, as does Oregon State and Washington State, so there will be some throughout the season. However, I have stopped updating the Inter-conference results and will pull them back out at the end of the year. Instead, I will talk about each of the conference races.

Conference Call

(Records listed do NOT reflect results from last night.)

AAC

Top of the Heap: Army, Tulane

Contenders: Navy

In the Mix: Memphis, North Texas, ECU, USF

Long Shots: Charlotte, Rice, UTSA, Temple

Eliminated: UAB, Tulsa, FAU

ACC

Top of the Heap: Miami, SMU

Contenders: Clemson, Pitt

In the Mix: Louisville, Syracuse, Va Tech, Wake Forest

Long Shots: Ga Tech, Duke, UNC, NC St, UVA, BC

Eliminated: Stanford, FSU, Cal

Big XII

Top of the Heap: BYU, Iowa St, Colorado

Contenders: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Arizona St, WVU

In the Mix: Baylor, Houston, TCU

Long Shots: UCF, Utah, Kansas

Eliminated: Arizona, Oklahoma St

Big Ten

Top of the Heap: Indiana, Oregon

Contenders: Ohio St, Penn St

In the Mix: Iowa, Minnesota

Long Shots: Illinois, Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin

Eliminated: UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan St, Northwestern, USC, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue

CUSA

Top of the Heap: WKU, JSU

Contenders: Sam Houston

In the Mix: Liberty

Long Shots: FIU, La Tech, MTSU, Kennesaw St

Eliminated: New Mexico St, UTEP

MAC

Top of the Heap: WMU, Miami, Ohio, BGSU

Contenders: Buffalo, Toledo, Ball St

In the Mix: EMU, NIU, CMU

Long Shots: Akron, Kent St

Eliminated: 

Mountain West

Top of the Heap: Boise St, Colorado St

Contenders: UNLV, SDSU

In the Mix: Fresno St, SJSU, Hawaii

Long Shots: Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah St

Eliminated: Nevada, Air Force

Pac 12

This will be decided when Washington State visits Oregon State on Nov 23

SEC

Top of the Heap: Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Texas, LSU

Contenders: Vandy, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri

In the Mix: 

Long Shots: South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida

Eliminated: Oklahoma, Auburn, Kentucky, Miss St

Sun Belt

East

Top of the Heap: Ga Southern, Marshall

Contenders: ODU, JMU

In the Mix: App St, CCU

Long Shots: Ga State

Eliminated: 

West

Top of the Heap: Louisiana

Contenders: Arkansas St

In the Mix: South Alabama, ULM, Texas St

Long Shots: Troy, Southern Miss

Eliminated: 

Intraconference results

The SBC West now only leads 5-4 vs the SBC East as the Sun Belt is the sole conference with divisions. The SBC East won 2 of 3 games against the West last weekend.

Undefeated/Winless teams

Here are the remaining undefeated teams, listed alphabetically. 

Army 8-0

BYU 8-0

Indiana 9-0

Miami, Fl 9-0

Oregon 9-0

3 teams suffered their 1st loss in week 10, so we are down to 5 out of 134 teams (3.7%) that are still undefeated. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten- 2 out of 18 teams (.111)

AAC- 1/14 (.071)

Big 12- 1/16 (.063)

ACC- 1/17 (.059)

Pac-0/2 teams (.000)

Ind- 0/3 (.000)

CUSA- 0/10 (.000)

MAC- 0/12 (.000)

MWC- 0/12 (..000)

SBC- 0/14 (.000)

SEC- 0/16 (.000)

These teams are still winless, again listed alphabetically. 

Kent State 0-8

We are still at 1 out of 134 teams (0.7%) that are winless. Here is how they break down by conference:

Big Ten 0/18

ACC 0/17

SEC 0/16

Big 12 0/16

AAC 0/14

SBC 0/14

MWC 0/12

CUSA 0/10

Ind 0/3

Pac 2 0/2

MAC 1/12

These are the teams that have a win, but none against FBS teams. These are also listed alphabetically.

Air Force

Purdue

Southern Miss

UMass

 

Overall 4 teams have a win, but no FBS wins. Here is how that breaks down by conference:

MWC- 1

SBC- 1

Big Ten- 1

Ind- 1

AAC- 0

SEC- 0

CUSA- 0

Big 12- 0

Pac 12- 0

ACC- 0

MAC- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

There are 35 bowl games this year, in addition to the 12 teams that will make the CFP. The CFP will include an additional 6 bowls- 4 for quarterfinals, and 2 for semifinals- bringing the total number of bowls to 41, but some teams (4) will play in 2 bowls (quarterfinals and semifinals). In addition, there are 4 CFP 1st round games at home sites of the 5-8 seeds. What all this means is that there will be 12 teams in the CFP, and 70 teams for the additional 35 bowl games, meaning 82 teams (out of 134, or 61.2%) will make the postseason in one form or another. The minimum requirement to reach a bowl is 6 wins, of which 5 must be against FBS teams. However, teams with 5 wins may be included (and have been in the past), and they are chosen by looking at the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of the teams with 5 wins and choosing teams with the best APR, and then in decreasing order. Hawaii plays 2 FCS teams, so they must get to 7 wins to be eligible.

45 teams have already reached bowl eligibility, meaning 37 more teams are needed.

Alabama

Army

Arizona State

Boise State

BYU

Clemson

Colorado

Colorado State

Duke

Georgia

Georgia Southern

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Iowa State

James Madison

Kansas State

Louisiana

Louisville

LSU

Memphis

Miami, Fl

Minnesota

Missouri

Navy

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Ole Miss

Oregon

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Sam Houston

SMU

Syracuse

Tennessee

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Toledo

Tulane

UConn

UNLV

Vanderbilt

Washington State

WKU

These are the teams who have reached 7 losses (or are otherwise ineligible). Some 7 loss teams may yet qualify for a bowl, if there are not enough teams with 6 wins.

Air Force

Akron

FSU

Kennesaw State (transition team)

Kent State

Mississippi State

Purdue

Southern Miss

Stanford

Troy

UMass

UTEP

Wyoming

Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.

Team: Nebraska

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at USC, Wisconsin, at Iowa

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Wisconsin 

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Oregon, at Nebraska, Minnesota

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Georgia Tech

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Miami, NC State, UGA

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Cincinnati

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: WVU, at Iowa St, at Kansas St, TCU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: North Texas

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Army, at UTSA, ECU, at Temple

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: San Jose State

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Ore St, Boise St, UNLV, Stanford

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: ULM

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Texas St, at Auburn, at Ark St, Louisiana

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Eastern Michigan

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, Buffalo, at WMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Liberty

Record: 5-2

Remaining Schedule:  at MTSU, at UMass, WKU, at SHS

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Arkansas

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Texas, La Tech, at Mizzou

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Michigan

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Indiana, NW, at Ohio St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Virginia Tech

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Clemson, at Duke, UVA

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: TCU

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Okla St, Arizona, at Cincy

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Fresno State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at AF, Colo St, at UCLA

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Arkansas State

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana, at Ga St, ULM, ODU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Ohio

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Kent St, EMU, at Toldeo, Ball St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Western Michigan

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: NIU, at BGSU, at CMU, EMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Oklahoma

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Mizzou, Alabama, at LSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Florida

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Texas, LSU, Miss, at FSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: South Carolina

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Vandy, Mizzou, Wofford, at Clemson

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Rutgers

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Minn, at Maryland, Illinois, at Mich St

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Maryland

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, Rutgers, Iowa, at Penn St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Washington

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Penn St, UCLA, at Oregon

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Michigan State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: NC State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Duke, at GT, at UNC

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Boston College

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Syra, at SMU, UNC, Pitt

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Virginia

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Pitt, at ND, SMU, at Va Tech

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Utah

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: BYU, at Colo, Iowa St, at UCF

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Oregon State

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: SJSU, at AF, Wash St, at Boise St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Marshall

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss, CCU, at ODU, at JMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Coastal Carolina

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: App St, at Marshall, at Ga Sou, at Ga St

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: Texas State

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at ULM, Southern Miss, Ga St, at S Alabama

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Northern Illinois

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at WMU, Akron, at Miami, CMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Buffalo

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Ball St, at EMU, Kent St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: USC

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: Neb, at UCLA, ND

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: North Carolina

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: WF, at BC, NC St

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: California

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at WF, Syra, Stanford, at SMU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Wake Forest

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Cal, UNC, Miami, Duke

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: West Virginia

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Cincy, Baylor, UCF, at Texas Tech

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Baylor

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at WVU, at Houston, Kansas

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Good

Team: East Carolina

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: FAU, at Tulsa, at UNT, Navy

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: ODU

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: JMU, Marshall, at Ark St

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: South Alabama

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana, at Southern Miss, Texas St

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Miami, Oh

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Ball St, Kent St, NIU, at BGSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Bowling Green

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at CMU, WMU, at Ball St, Miami

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Jacksonville State

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at La Tech, FIU, SHS, at WKU

Chances to reach a bowl: Excellent

Team: Kentucky

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: Murray St, at Texas, Louisville

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Northwestern

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: Ohio St, at Mich, Illinois

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Oklahoma State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at TCU, Texas Tech, at Colo

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: Arizona

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: Houston, at TCU, Ariz St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: UCF

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ariz St, at WVU, Utah

Chances to reach a bowl: Good

Team: UTSA

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at UNT, Temple, at Army

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: USF

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Navy, at Charlotte, Tulsa, at Rice

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: Charlotte

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: USF, at FAU, UAB

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: San Diego State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: UNM, at UNLV, at Utah St, AF

Chances to reach a bowl: Very good

Team: New Mexico

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at SDSU, Wash St, at Hawaii

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: Nevada

Record: 3-7

Remaining Schedule: at Boise St, AF, at UNLV

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Central Michigan

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: BGSU, at Toledo, WMU, NIU

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Auburn

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: ULM, Texas A&M, Alabama

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: Houston

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ariz, Baylor, at BYU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Tulsa

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: ECU, at USF, FAU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Hawaii

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: UNLV, at Utah St, UNM

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Appalachian State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at CCU, JMU, at Ga Sou

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Ball State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Miami, at Buff, BGSU, at Ohio

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: La Tech

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: JSU, at WKU, at Arkansas, Kenn St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very Poor

Team: UCLA

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Iowa, at Wash, USC, Fresno St

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Kansas

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: Iowa St, at BYU, Colo, at Baylor

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: FAU

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at ECU, at Temple, Charlotte, at Tulsa

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Rice

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Memphis, at UAB, USF

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Temple

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at Tulane, FAU, at UTSA, UNT

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: Georgia State

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at JMU, Ark St, at Texas St, CCU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: FIU

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at JSU, at Kenn St, MTSU

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: New Mexico State

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: WKU, at Texas A&M, at MTSU, UTEP

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Team: Middle Tennessee

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: Lib, NMSU, at FIU

Chances to reach a bowl: Fair

Team: Utah State

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at Wash St, Hawaii, SDSU, at Colo St

Chances to reach a bowl: Very poor

Team: UAB

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: UConn, at Memphis, Rice, at Charlotte

Chances to reach a bowl: Poor

Paul's Playoff Picks

Almost all of my picks are still in play (obviously), but FSU has been eliminated. This could also affect the ACC as a whole.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 conference champions get a bye for the 1st round. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round, and Notre Dame cannot be a top 4 seed because they are not a member of any conference. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- lost to Alabama, defeated Texas

Ohio State- defeated Penn St, but lost to Oregon

FSU- ELIMINATED

Utah- ELIMINATED

Notre Dame- lost to a MAC team, but has rebounded nicely

Boise State- loss to Oregon by 3, wins over WSU and UNLV

Clemson- 2nd loss makes it tough

Texas- has a big win over Michigan, loss to UGA

Oregon- big win over Ohio State

Iowa- ELIMINATED

Missouri- got blown out by Texas A&M and Alabama- probably eliminated

LSU- lost to Notre Dame and Texas A&M

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:

Alabama- 2 losses, to Vandy and Tennessee

Ole Miss- loss to Kentucky really hurts, and now a loss to LSU

Tennessee- defeated Alabama, lost to Arkansas

Penn State- defeated USC

Michigan- ELIMINATED

USC- ELIMINATED

Rutgers- ELIMINATED

Miami, Fl- still undefeated, but just barely

SMU- has a loss to BYU

Va Tech- ELIMINATED

Louisville- ELIMINATED

NC State-  ELIMINATED

Kansas State- all but eliminated

Oklahoma State- ELIMINATED

Arizona- ELIMINATED

West Virginia- ELIMINATED

Kansas- ELIMINATED

UTSA- ELIMINATED

Tulane- close loss to Kansas State, bigger loss to Oklahoma

Memphis- ELIMINATED

East Carolina- ELIMINATED

Air Force- ELIMINATED

Appalachian State- ELIMINATED

Texas State- ELIMINATED

Toledo- ELIMINATED

Northern Illinois- ELIMINATED

Liberty- ELIMINATED

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P5 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and 10-12 come from these 2 lists.

This late in the season, 9 of my 12 picks are still possibilities. Teams that are still in the race that I (and everyone else!) whiffed on include: 

Texas A&M- loss to SC really hurts case

Tennessee

Indiana

Iowa State- loss to TTU knocks them down a peg

Colorado

BYU

Army

Navy- ELIMINATED

UNLV

Of my "extra" picks, only 8 of 27 are still possibilities.

6 of my 12 preseason picks were in the opening bracket. 4 of my "additional" teams were also in. I only completely whiffed on Indiana and BYU. 

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!