Odds and Ends 12/11/24
Welcome Back!
Now that the season is over, I thought I would take a look back at how my preseason conference picks panned out, and then compare them to the major magazines. I must confess, it's not pretty...
Here is what I said about each conference, and how right (or very wrong...) I was.
MAC
Chances to make the playoff: Slim to none. Any team would have to go undefeated, but the teams expected to win the conference have almost no chance to go undefeated. Miami plays at Northwestern, Cincinnati, and at Notre Dame; Toledo plays at Miss State and at WKU; NIU plays at Notre Dame and at NC State; BGSU plays at Penn State and at Texas A&M; and Ohio plays at Syracuse and at Kentucky. All of the teams, with the exception of Toledo, have at least 2 nearly guaranteed losses on their schedule.
Don’t be surprised if… the MAC loses to 2 FCS teams for a 3rd straight year.
I’m not convinced… Eastern Michigan will finish in the bottom half of the conference. EMU HC Creighton always seems to get the best out of his team, and to exceed whatever modest expectations everyone has for his teams.
Verdict: While the MAC did get two P5 wins, they only lost to 1 FCS team, and EMU did indeed finish in the bottom half. I was most wrong on Buffalo and Toledo, as the Bulls finished tied for 3rd and I had them 9th, and I had Toledo winning the MAC, and they were tied for 6th.
CUSA
Chances to make the playoff: If Liberty can repeat their undefeated season from a year ago they would probably make the new 12-team CFP. But that would mean winning in Boone, NC over App State on Sep 28. In fact, that game could well decide the G5 representative.
Don’t be surprised if… a CUSA team pulls off an upset over a P4 team, perhaps when Duke visits Murfreesboro. And there could be more than 1.
I’m not convinced… Liberty will go undefeated in the conference again. 4 of their 8 CUSA wins were by 14 points or less, and CUSA is getting a little more parity.
Verdict: The Liberty-App State game did not come close to deciding the G5 spot in the CFP, as it wasn't even played due to hurricanes, and CUSA did not get any P5 wins (0-12), but I was correct in noting that the Flames would not go 8-0 in the conference again- they were 5-3. I was most wrong about Sam Houston, as I had them pegged for 8th, and they finished tied for 2nd.
Sun Belt
Chances to make the playoff: Appalachian State would appear to have the best chance, especially if they can get by Liberty at home, and avoid upsets in the SBC. If that happens, how they fare at Clemson could be the deciding factor. Play them close, and that looks good on their resume’ especially if the Tigers can beat UGA the week before. And playing Clemson the week after the Tigers play the Dawgs could be advantageous. Could there be an upset?
Don’t be surprised if… Sun Belt teams defeat teams from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, AAC, and the MWC, as well as CUSA and the MAC. In other words, they could defeat a team from every conference except the Big 12 (only 1 game- Ark St @ Iowa St).
I’m not convinced… Texas State is going to do as well as everyone seems to think, but they may win the SBC West by default, as 3 other teams in the division are breaking in new coaches, and the other 3 have been hurt by portal defections and could take a step back to rebuild.
Verdict: App State lost to Clemson by a score of 66-20, and was eliminated from the CFP by week 4 (if not before). However, they did come close to beating a team from every conference except the Big XII, but did not get a win against the Big Ten. And my assessment of TSU was correct, though they did not win the West- Louisiana did. I was most wrong on App State, as I (and everyone else) had them winning the conference, and I had Marshall finishing 5th instead of 1st.
Mountain West
Chances to make the playoff: Actually pretty good, now that the CFP has expanded to 12 teams, and a G5 conference winner is guaranteed a spot. But so much depends on how well the other conference winners do. Does an undefeated Liberty beat out a 1-loss Boise State? Does a 1-loss App State get in over a 2-loss Fresno State?
Don’t be surprised if… the MWC goes 6-4 in their OOC games on Aug 31.
I’m not convinced… Fresno State will finish 2nd, as Air Force has a much easier conference schedule, and could sneak in. The winner of their game in Colorado Springs on Nov 9 could decide 2nd (or 1st) place.
Verdict: I was correct that the MWC would get into the CFP, they did go 6-4 on the Aug 31 weekend, and I was correct that Fresno State did not finish 2nd, but neither dd Air Force. I was most wrong about Colorado State (had them too low) and Wyoming (had them too high).
AAC
Chances to make the playoff: Much better now that the CFP has expanded to 12 teams, but it would almost certainly need to be an undefeated team. The most likely teams would be UTSA, which could boast wins over Texas St and Texas (or maybe a close loss to the Longhorns), Tulane (plays Kansas St and Oklahoma), Memphis (Troy and FSU) or USF (Alabama and Miami, Fl).
Don’t be surprised if… if ECU goes 3-1 in OOC games.
I’m not convinced… the AAC will grab the CFP slot this year, mainly because most of the top teams play 1 or more P5 teams, and so they are more likely to have a loss than say, Liberty, whose toughest OOC game is at App St (also play ECU and at UMass); I think it could go to one of the other G5 conferences.
Verdict: ECU only went 2-2 in OOC games, and I was correct in that the AAC did not get into the CFP, though they came relatively close.I was most wrong on Army, along with just about everyone else.
Pac 12
Chances to make the playoff: Neither team has a good enough strength of schedule to get in with 2+ losses, but a win over Oregon coupled with going 10-1 or 11-0 in other games could be enough to get the Beavers in.
Don’t be surprised if… everyone mostly ignores what remains of the Pac 12
I’m not convinced… these 2 teams will completely implode, but I do think they will probably each lose 1 or 2 games to the MWC teams on their schedule.
Verdict: I was correct on all 3 counts.
Independents
Chances to make the playoff: Notre Dame has the only realistic chance from this group of making the CFP. With their schedule, if they win 7 of their 8 games against P4 opponents (and win the others of course), then they should be in. They could still make it with 2 losses, but that would be much more iffy. Their toughest games look to be TAMU and USC on the road, and FSU at home.
Don’t be surprised if… the Irish go undefeated, as there seems to be a “cupcake” or off week before every big game
I’m not convinced… UMass can even reach their 3 wins from last year, even though they play 2 FCS teams.
Verdict: The Irish did indeed make the CFP, though they didn't go undefeated (came close!). And UMass also finished with only 2 wins, both over FCS teams.
Big XII
Chances to make the playoff: Very Good. An undefeated or 1-loss Big 12 champion will always have a chance for inclusion in the 12-team playoff, but as TCU proved 2 years ago, you don’t even have to be the champion. The big question is if 1- or 2-loss non-champions will get consideration, or if a 2-loss champion might get superseded by an undefeated G5 champion, assuming there are 2 or more of those.
Don’t be surprised if… Kansas and/or Texas Tech finishes in the top half of the conference, and perhaps even in the top 3 or 4 (maybe the top 2?).
I’m not convinced… BYU will finish in the bottom 4; it seems to me they will be at least in the 9-12 range.
Verdict: I was correct about the Big XII chances to make the CFP, and right about Texas Tech, but wrong about Kansas. And I was correct about BYU, but wildly wrong about where they would finish. Like everyone else I was completely wrong about where Utah and Arizona State would finish, as you could almost swap their predicted finishes with their actual finish.
ACC
Chances to make the playoff: Now that the CFP has expanded to 12 teams, an ACC champion will most likely never be left out again, especially an undefeated champion. The question is how many ACC will make it in? So much depends on how other teams in other conferences do, but I would think that in most years, at least 2 teams will make it in.
Don’t be surprised if… Virginia Tech finishes in the top 2 and makes the ACC Championship Game, mostly due to the ease of their schedule. .
I’m not convinced… Virginia will finish in the bottom 2. I think they have a decent shot at finishing in the 11-14 range.
Verdict: I was correct in that 2 ACC teams made it into the CFP, way off base about Va Tech (they finished ted for 8th, nowhere near 2nd), and spot on on UVA. I and the rest of the world were completely off on FSU.
Big Ten
Chances to make the playoff: Guaranteed. With the CFP expanding to 12 teams, as many as 4 or 5 could qualify, but I think 3 or 4 is the likely number.
Don’t be surprised if… Iowa sneaks into the top 2, as their toughest game is at OSU, and they avoid most of the other top teams.
I’m not convinced… Nebraska will have any more “success” than they’ve had the last few years, which probably means another season of 3-6 (or worse) in the new look Big Ten.
Verdict: I was absolutely right about the number of CFP spots the Big Ten would claim, wrong about Iowa (they finished tied for 5th), and spot on on Nebraska, as they did indeed finish 3-6 in the Big Ten, but did break their bowl drought. I was most wrong about... let's say it together... INDIANA!
SEC
Chances to make the playoff: Guaranteed. The SEC has had a participant in each CFP, and sometimes have had 2. And with the new expanded 12-team CFP, I expect anywhere from 3-5 teams to make it in. Expect there to be a fierce battle to get into the SEC CG, possibly decided by the still mysterious tiebreakers (details have not yet been released).
Don’t be surprised if… Missouri challenges for a spot in the SEC CG, as the only seeming loss is at Alabama, and even that may be iffy, though they do have other potential games where they could be upset (at TAMU or vs Oklahoma, for example).
I’m not convinced… either Alabama or Texas will finish in the top 2, though they will definitely factor into who does make it in.
Verdict: I was right about the number of CFP participants, though it's at the lower end of my range, semi-right about Mizzou, and half right about Bama and Texas. I was most wrong about Oklahoma, as they finished tied for 13th, 7 spots below where I predicted.
As compared to the great Phil Steele, I was an epic failure, as I only bested him in 2 conferences- the ACC and the Big XII- though we did tie in the MAC, and I was only a point worse in the MWC.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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