Paul's Picks Bowls Part V- National Championship Game

Welcome Back!

I actually did OK on bowl predictions this year, though it was rough there for a bit. At 57.8%, I improved by about 7.5% from last year. My record is 26-19, thanks to getting the last 6 correct (so I was barely above .500 before that run). 

Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%? That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle!

For the year, I finished 659-259, or 71.7%, with the bowls knocking 1.8% off my winning percentage.

This is how each conference did in the bowls/postseason:

Independents 4-0  1.000 (3-0 by ND)

AAC 6-2 .750

MAC 5-2 .714

Big Ten 10-6 .625 (3-0 by OSU)

SBC 4-3 .571

SEC 8-7 .533

Big 12 4-5 .444

MWC 1-4 .200

CUSA 1-4 .200

ACC 2-11 .154

Pac 12 0-1 .000

As you can see, the Big Ten did the best of the P5, but they were outdone by the AAC and the MAC in overall percentage. Take away OSU's 3 wins, though, and the Big Ten was just as mediocre as the rest of the P5. For the 2nd year in a row, Independents were undefeated in the bowl season (pending Monday's result). Oh, and the ACC had a miserable showing in the bowls/CFP.

Unfortunately, I will miss at least some (if not all) of the game, as I will be running sound and lights for a performance at the school where I teach. But I expect this to be a close game.

Now... on with the pick!

Monday, January 20

National Championship Game (Atlanta, Georgia)

8 Ohio State  vs 7 Notre Dame- The Buckeyes lead this series 6-2, having won each of the last 6. Here are the results from each game:

11/2/1935- Notre Dame 18-13 in Columbus

10/31/1936- Notre Dame 7-2 in South Bend

9/30/1995- Ohio State 45-26 in Columbus

9/28/1996- OSU 29-16 in South Bend

1/2/2006- OSU 34-20 in the Fiesta Bowl

1/1/2016- OSU 44-28 in the Fiesta Bowl

9/3/2022- OSU 21-10 in Columbus

9/23/2023- OSU 17-14 in South Bend

Including this year, the Fighting Irish are 24-21 in bowl/postseason games; OSU is 30-29. 

Here is how the teams stack up statistically:

Note: All stats are pulled from the official NCAA website, which means transitional teams (Kennesaw State) are not included, so the rankings are out of 133 teams, and not the 134 that actually played FBS Football this season. Also, I have no idea how passing efficiency and passing efficiency defense is calculated, but I included it in case you do. Finally, time of possession is only given in minutes, not broken down by seconds, so there is no way of knowing if OSU possesses the ball for 30 minutes and 1 second per game, or 30:29 per game (or even 30:59 per game, for that matter).

	Ohio State			Notre Dame
Offense
Scoring	35.8 ppg	12th		37.0 ppg	6th
Total	428.3 ypg	30th		405.1 ypg	52nd
Rushing	163.2 ypg	66th		210.8 ypg	14th
YPC	4.97			5.83
TDs	32			44
Passing	265.1 ypg	25th		194.3 ypg	102nd
Yds/Attempt	9.16			7.06
Yds/Completion	12.91	35th		10.64	119th
TDs	35			22
Completion Pct	71.0%	4th		66.3%	13th
Comp-Att	308-434			274-413
Interceptions	10			8
Team Passing Efficiency	169.95	3rd		139.34	50th
1st Downs	310	16th		307	19th
Run-Pass-Penalty	124-173-13			142-139-26
3rd Down Conversions	72-173			71-172
3rd Down Con. Pct	41.6%%	57th		41.3%%	61st
4th Down Conversions	20-28			19-26
4th Down Con. Pct	71.4%	11th		73.1%	8th
Red Zone Offense	49-56	43 TDs, 6 FGs		48-58	42 TDs, 6 FGs
RZ Pct	0.875	38th		0.828	78th
Sacks Allowed	14-92 yds			23-121 yds
Sack Pct	0.93/game	10th		1.53/gm	43rd
TFLs Allowed	3.67/gm	6th		4.6/gm	33rd
Fumbles Lost	5			7
Turnovers Lost	15	T32nd		15	T32nd
Time of Possession	30+ min/gm	65th		30+ min/gm	58th
Defense
Scoring	12.2 ppg	1st		14.27 ppg	2nd
Total	251.1 ypg	1st		298.3 ypg	9th
Rushing	89.9 ypg	3rd		133.0 ypg	41st
YPC	2.68			3.67
Passing	161.1 ypg	1st		165.3 ypg	2nd
Yds/Attempt	5.9			5.77
Yds/Completion	9.87			11.37
Interceptions	10-148 yds	T70th		19-454 yds	5th
Team Passing Efficiency	110.84	6th		99.5	1st
1st Downs	222	15th		250	T61st
Run-Pass-Penalty	92-106-24			115-108-27
3rd Down Conversions	75-216			61-205
3rd Down Con. Pct	34.7%	30th		29.8%	5th
4th Down Conversions	12-29			15-41
4th Down Con. Pct	41.4%	T16th		36.6%	9th
Red Zone Defense	15TDs, 7 FGs			21 TDs, 7 FGs
RZ Pct	0.611	2nd		0.718	8th
Sacks	51-349 yds			38-280 yds
Sack Pct	3.4/gm	3rd		2.53/gm	37th
TFLs	7.1/gm	21st		5.5/gm	71st
Fumbles Recovered	9	T27th		13	3rd
Turnovers Gained	19	T54th		32	1st
Defensive TDs	3 Fum, 1 INT			1 Fum, 5 INT
	4	T5th		6	T1st
Other
KOR	14-147-0			17-402-1
	10.5	132nd		23.65	23rd
KOR Defense	16.0	T9th		15.86	8th
PR	23-207-1			28-151-0
	9.0	T52nd		5.39	104th
PR Defense	10-61-0			18-86-0
	6.1	49th		4.53	19th
Net Punting	38.96	67th		39.75	43rd
Blocked Kicks	2	T27th		6	T1st
Blocked Kicks Allowed	0	T1st		4	T124th
Blocked Punts	2	T5th		3	T2nd
Blocked Punts Allowed	0	T1st		0	T1st
Turnover Margin	4			17
TO Margin Pct	0.27/gm	46th		1.13/gm	5th
Fewest Penalties	66	T30th		90	T103rd
Fewest Penalty Yards	595	T46th		784	T103rd
Fewest Pen/Game	4.4	11th		6	73rd

Looking at the stats, these appear to be 2 very evenly matched teams. Offensively, both teams are very efficient, albeit in different ways- the Bucks are much better passing while the Irish are much better running the ball. Defensively, they are also very even, though OSU has a clear advantage in run defense, while ND is much better at creating turnovers. One other advantage for the Buckeyes is in sacks and TFLs. On special teams, each team does some things very well, while just being OK (or worse) in other aspects.  These are 5 keys to this game: 

1) Can Notre Dame control the line of scrimmage enough for their running game to be effective? If they are forced into 2nd or 3rd and longs (being forced to pass), it could be a long night for the Irish.

2) Which team will be able to convert their red zone chances into TDs, and which will have to settle for FGs?

3) Can one of the teams create (or cause) a big play on special teams that perhaps could be the difference in the game?

4) Can the Irish win the turnover battle and create additional chances (and short fields) for their offense?

5) What type of game will this be? If it's low scoring, I would give the advantage to Notre Dame. If it's high scoring, I don't think the Irish can keep up.

Having considered all the history and the stats, I'm going with the Fighting Irish to pull the upset as a "Team of Destiny", by a score of 20-17. Let's just hope it doesn't turn out like last year's National Championship Game, when I also picked the underdog...

On a personal note, I will probably cut back even more next season. I spent anywhere from 20-30 hours (or more) per week doing research and publishing my blog 3-4 days a week. That's in addition to the many hours I spent doing my preseason predictions. And now that I'm no longer retired, that's a lot of work that ends up being read by only 10-15 people each week.

Preliminarily, I'm looking at cutting back to just 2-3 days per week. I already dropped my Monday TWIF Notes in midseason this past fall, as it was just too much for me to do. My Power Rankings will continue, as will my Odds and Ends (I think), but if I do my picks each week, I will definitely pare those down to just a few points- maybe just the series history and my picks.

Anyway, feel free to leave a comment. It's been a fun season, and I appreciate each of the readers who spent time with me. 

May you and your loved ones be blessed!