2025 Paul's Picks Week Zero

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Welcome Back!

College Football is back! The first games are in 2 days, and it's a rather sparse weekend, hence the "Week Zero" moniker.  We have one more game this year than last year, but there are still only 5 in total. 

Last year, I finished at 72.5%, which was my worst in several years (71.8% after the bowls).  Over the last 8 years, I am a combined 4,982-1,840, which comes out to 73.0%. 2022 was my worst year over this period (70.3%), while 2019 was my best year, at 76.2%. In both 2017 and 2018, I was at 73%, and 2021 was 73.6%, while the pandemic year of 2020 saw me at what had been my previous low of 71.8%. In 2023, I was 75.2%, which was my 2nd best year. 

You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread.  I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for over 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it. 

In this space each week, I will update you on my picking percentage, and whether it went up or down from the previous week.  My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that.  Most years, I'm right around 73%, but my high has been just over 76%. Last year, I was 72.5% during the regular season, which was my 2nd worst year.

I will also give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend.  Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game.  Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.

Now... on with the first picks of the 2025 season!

Saturday, August 23

Iowa State vs Kansas State (Dublin, Ireland)- The season starts off with an afternoon game from "across the pond". The Cyclones lead the series 54-50-4, winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, with each of the last 3 being decided by 8 points or less. The Wildcats have twice had winning streaks of 10 in a row in this series, the 1st occurring from 1994-2003, and the 2nd from 2008-2017, so from 1994-2017, KSU was 21-3 against ISU. The series has twice before been played at a neutral site, both won by the Wildcats, as Farmageddon was played in Kansas City in 2009, 2010, but this is a little longer of a road trip for both teams. Iowa State has won their last 4 openers, all at home; Kansas State has also won their last 4 openers, with all but one at home. However, only one of those 8 victories was over an FBS opponent- K State's win over Stanford in Arlington, Texas on Sep 4, 2021. Kansas State is my pick to win the Big 12, so I would be foolish to pick against them. Wildcats win a close one.

Idaho State @ UNLV- The Rebels are 6-3 against the Bengals, who were only 5-7 last year. UNLV romps.

Fresno State @ Kansas- This will be the first ever meeting between these 2 teams. Both are coming off disappointing seasons, as each was 9-4 in 2023, but suffered 7 losses in 2024. The Jayhawks have won 4 openers in a row, all vs FCS competition, and the Bulldogs have won 3 of their last 4, with a win over UConn and at Purdue and their loss at Michigan. FS has lost their last 2 games against P4 competition, but they have won 2 of their last 5, both on the road, and their loss to UCLA last year was by only 7 points, so KU better be careful. However, this is Fresno HC Matt Entz's 1st year in Fresno, so they may not start off like gangbusters, but he was 60-10 in 5 years at North Dakota State, with 2 national titles. Kansas pulls out a close one, but watch out for this Bulldogs squad in 2026.

Sam Houston @ WKU- The Hilltoppers lead the brief series by a 2-1 score, winning each of the last 2 years (1-0 in Bowling Green), but the Bearkats have the more important win- in the 2004 Division I-AA first round playoff. Both teams are coming off successful seasons, but SHS is starting over with new HC Phil Longo in his 1st HC gig. WKU has won 3 of their last 4 openers, including a win over USF in 2023 with their only loss at Alabama last year, but the Kats have lost 2 of their last 3 with those 2 losses by a combined 45-0 score- but at Texas A&M and at BYU. Their win came last year at Rice, as they haven't opened at home since 2020. Hilltoppers win.

Stanford @ Hawaii- The Cardinal lead the series 4-0, with wins in 1946 (18-7), 1950 (74-20 in the Pineapple Bowl), 1972 (39-7), and 2023 (37-24), with all games being played in Honolulu. The Rainbow Warriors haven't had a winning season since 2020, and have lost 3 of their last 4 openers, all to P4 teams. Stanford also hasn't had a winning season since 2020, as they have been 3-9 each of the last 4 seasons, but they've won 2 of their last 3 opening games, with a win over Hawaii in 2023. I think the Warriors will have a bowl season this year, but I believe the best they will do in this game will be to keep it relatively close. Stanford wins.


No upsets this week! But again, there are only 5 games. 


Feel free to leave a comment. Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes, where I will review all of the games played. 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!   

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