Odds and Ends 12/3/25- Updated

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Welcome Back!


As expected, my Power Rankings did pretty well in predicting the committee rankings! My top 5 were all in the top 5 and in the 12-team bracket, I have 9 of the 12 (I have Vandy, North Texas and Utah instead of Ole Miss, Tulane and Oklahoma). Of the Committee's top 25, I have all 22 in my top 25. Where we differ is mostly in the 20s, specifically 20, 21, and 22. Respectively, the committee has Tulane (#28 in my rankings), Houston (#43 in mine), and Georgia Tech (#33). Teams in my Top 25 that the committee left out were USF, LSU, and Missouri.

Not too shabby!


Interconference results


The season is finally over, and this is how each conference did in non-conference play.

Overall
1) SEC 56-8/.875
2) Big Ten 44-10/.815
3) Big 12 38-10/.792
4) Independents 19-5/.792
5) American 34-20/.630
6) ACC 42-26/.618
7) MWC 26-22/.542
8) SBC 27-29/.482
9) CUSA 19-29/.396
10) Pac 12 8-16/.333
11) MAC 16-36/.308

vs FBS
1) SEC 41-8/.837
2) Independents 18-5/.783
3) Big Ten 30-10/.750
4) Big 12 23-10/.697
5) American 22-19/.537
6) ACC 26-26/.500
7) MWC 14-22/.389
8) SBC 13-29/.310
9) Pac 12 6-16/.273
10) CUSA 9-28/.243
11) MAC 5-34/.128
12) FCS 4-122/.052

vs P4 (and Notre Dame)
1) Independents 10-3/.769
2) SEC 12-6/.667
3) Big 12 9-7/.563
4) Big Ten 5-7/.417
5) American 6-13/.316
6) ACC 8-20/.286
7) MWC 4-12/.250
8) SBC 1-17/.056
9) MAC 1-23/.042
10) Pac 12 0-8/.000
11) CUSA 0-14/.000
12) FCS 0-60/.000

vs G5 (includes UConn and Pac 12)
1) SEC 29-2/.935
2) Big Ten 25-3/.893
3) Big 12 14-3/.824
4) Independents 8-2/.800
5) ACC 18-6/.750
6) American 16-6/.727
7) SBC 12-12/.500
8) MWC 10-10/.500
9) Pac 12 6-8/.429
10) CUSA 9-14/.391
11) MAC 4-11/.267
12 FCS 4-62/.061

As you can see, the SEC was far and above the best conference in OOC games, regardless how you classify to competition. The Independents (ND and UConn) actually did better than the SEC against P4 competition, but much of that 10-3 record was the Irish going 5-1 against the ACC, plus wins over SEC and Big Ten last place teams Arkansas and Purdue. Interestingly, the Big Ten, the largest conference at 18 teams, played the fewest P4 opponents, not just per team, but the fewest than even the 12-team conferences. Only the Pac 12 (really just 2 teams) played fewer than the Big Ten's 12 contests against P4 foes, and they played 8 teams. The MAC was clearly the weakest conference, with the American the best G5 conference. In fact, the ACC trails the American in all but the final category- games against G5 competition. 


Intraconference results

As expected, the Sun Belt East and West divisions each won 7 games to finish 7-7 against each other.


Undefeated/Winless teams

The following teams are undefeated with a 12-0 record:

Indiana 
Ohio State 

Texas A&M suffered its 1st defeat, so we have only have 2 out of 136 teams (1.5%) that remain undefeated. 

Here is how many from each conference are still undefeated:

Big Ten    2 out of 18/.111
Pac 12    0-2/.000
Independents 0-2/.000
CUSA    0-10/.000
MWC    0-12/.000
MAC    0-13/.000
SBC    0-14/.000
American    0-14/.000
SEC     0-16/.000
Big 12    0-16/.000
ACC    0-17/.000


The following team has yet to win a game:

UMass 0-12

Only 1 team finished the season winless (0.7%).

This is how many from each conference are still winless:

MAC    1 out of 13 teams
Pac 12    0-2
Ind     0-2
CUSA    0-10
MWC    0-12
SBC    0-14
American    0-14
SEC    0-16
Big 12    0-16
ACC     0-17
Big Ten     0-18


The following teams have a win, but no FBS wins:

Charlotte
Georgia State
Oklahoma State

3 teams (2.2%) did not have an FBS win, including one P4 teams.

This is how many teams from each conference fall into this category:

SBC-1
American-1
Big 12-1
ACC- 0
MWC- 0
Pac 12- 0
MAC- 0
CUSA- 0
SEC- 0
Big Ten- 0
Ind- 0


Bowl eligible/eliminated

The following teams have reached 6 wins, and thus are bowl eligible. There are 35 bowl games, so 70 teams will be needed. If you add in the 12 teams for the CFP (using some of the bowls not previously counted), then 82 teams are needed. We added 8 teams this week, which means 80 teams are now eligible, so we need 2 more. Those slots will be filled by FBS newcomers Delaware and Missouri State.

Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas State
Army
Boise State
BYU 
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Coastal Carolina
Delaware 
Duke
East Carolina
FIU
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech 
Hawaii
Houston
Illinois
Indiana 
Iowa
Iowa State
Jacksonville State
James Madison
Kansas State
Kennesaw State
La Tech
Louisiana
Louisville
LSU
Memphis 
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri State 
Navy 
NC State
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Texas
Notre Dame
ODU
Ohio
Ohio State 
Oklahoma
Ole Miss 
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
San Diego State
SMU
Southern Miss
Tennessee
TCU
Texas
Texas A&M 
Texas State
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
UConn
UNLV 
USC
USF
Utah
Utah State
UTSA
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Western Michigan
WKU

As teams reach 7 losses, they become ineligible for a bowl, unless there are an insufficient amount of teams to fill all the bowl slots. We ended up with 54 teams ineligible.

Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Auburn
Ball State
Baylor
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Charlotte
Colorado
Colorado State
Eastern Michigan
FAU
Florida
FSU
Georgia State
Kansas
Kent State
Kentucky
Liberty
Marshall
Maryland
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Mississippi State
Nevada
New Mexico State
North Carolina
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Purdue
Rice
Rutgers
Sam Houston
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
ULM
UMass
UTEP
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Wyoming


Paul's Playoff Picks

Most of my picks are still in play, but more and more teams are being eliminated each week.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- still looking good at 11-1, but still have the SEC CG
Ohio State- still undefeated
Clemson- ELIMINATED
Kansas State- ELIMINATED
Notre Dame- 10-2 and waiting of CG results
Boise State- ELIMINATED
Texas- now with 3 losses
Alabama- Needs to win the SEC CG to secure a spot, though could get in with a loss
Oregon- in excellent shape at 11-1
Penn State- ELIMINATED
Georgia Tech- ELIMINATED
LSU- ELIMINATED



Here is the list of the next most likely teams to get in:


Oklahoma- perhaps the best 2-loss team out there
Ole Miss- seems almost a lock
Indiana- STILL undefeated
Miami, Fl- Hoping for chaos in the CG's
BYU- has a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 CG, almost has to win
Utah- like Miami, needs chaos above them
Tulane- must win the AC CG
James Madison- still has an outside shot

I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.

Here are teams that have played themselves into contention:

Texas A&M
Vandy
Virginia
Texas Tech
North Texas




Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!    

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